Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians

Latest release

Estimates and projections of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population for 2011 to 2031.

Reference period

2011 to 2031

Released

24/07/2024

Next release Unknown

Key statistics

Australia’s Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population as at 30 June 2021 (983,700 people) is projected to reach between 1,171,700 and 1,193,600 people by 2031.
Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory are projected to have the fastest average annual growth rate over the projection period of between 2.2% and 2.4% per year.
The median age (24.0 years) is projected to increase to between 25.4 and 25.7 years.

Assumptions

Introduction

Span of estimates and projections

Base population

Estimates

Projections

Summary of projections

Assumptions have been formulated on the basis of past demographic trends, in conjunction with consultation with various experts and government department representative at the national and state/territory level. They do not attempt to allow for non-demographic factors (such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, natural disasters, epidemic or significant health treatment improvements) which may alter future demographic behaviour or outcomes. They also assume no identification change over this period.

Summary of assumptions
Series	Total fertility rate	Total paternity rate	Male life expectancy at birth	Female life expectancy at birth
High assumption	Constant (0%)	Annual increase (+0.5%)	Annual increase (+0.29 yrs)	Annual increase (+0.20 yrs)
Medium assumption	Annual decrease (-1.2%)	Constant (0%)	Annual increase (+0.15 yrs)	Annual increase (+0.10 yrs)
Low assumption	Annual decrease (-1.5%)	Annual decrease (-0.5%)	Constant (0 yrs)	Constant (0 yrs)

Additional assumptions regarding the remaining demographic factors for the projections are:

constant levels of net interstate migration using the average of the 2016 and 2021 Census years
zero net overseas migration with no arrivals and no departures
zero unexplained growth in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population.

Projections series

By considering the above assumptions, 9 projection series were produced. Three main series have been selected from these to provide a range of projections for analysis and discussion in this publication. These series are referred to as high, medium and low.

Main projection series, assumptions used(a)
		Life expectancy at birth
		High increase	Medium increase	Constant (low assumption)
0.5% annual increase in paternity rates (high assumption)
Fertility rates	Constant (high assumption)	High series	. .	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.2% (medium assumption)	. .	. .	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.5% (low assumption)	. .	. .	. .
Constant paternity rates (medium assumption)
Fertility rates	Constant (high assumption)	. .	. .	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.2% (medium assumption)	. .	Medium series	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.5% (low assumption)	. .	. .	. .
0.5% annual decline in paternity rates (low assumption)
Fertility rates	Constant (high assumption)	. .	. .	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.2% (medium assumption)	. .	. .	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.5% (low assumption)	. .	. .	Low series

. . not applicable

Constant levels of net interstate migration using the average of the 2016 and 2021 Census years.

Sensitivity analysis was undertaken around the medium main projection series. The remaining 6 alternative series show the sensitivity of the fertility, paternity and mortality assumptions.

Alternative series showing sensitivity of fertility assumption, assumptions used(a)
		Life expectancy at birth
		High increase	Medium increase	Constant (low assumption)
0.5% annual increase in paternity rates (high assumption)
Fertility rates	Constant (high assumption)	. .	. .	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.2% (medium assumption)	. .	. .	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.5% (low assumption)	. .	. .	. .
Constant paternity rates (medium assumption)
Fertility rates	Constant (high assumption)	. .	High series	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.2% (medium assumption)	. .	. .	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.5% (low assumption)	. .	Low series	. .
0.5% annual decline in paternity rates (low assumption)
Fertility rates	Constant (high assumption)	. .	. .	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.2% (medium assumption)	. .	. .	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.5% (low assumption)	. .	. .	. .

. . not applicable

Constant levels of net interstate migration using the average of the 2016 and 2021 Census years.

Alternative series showing sensitivity of paternity assumption, assumptions used(a)
		Life expectancy at birth
		High increase	Medium increase	Constant (low assumption)
0.5% annual increase in paternity rates (high assumption)
Fertility rates	Constant (high assumption)	. .	. .	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.2% (medium assumption)	. .	High series	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.5% (low assumption)	. .	. .	. .
Constant paternity rates (medium assumption)
Fertility rates	Constant (high assumption)	. .	. .	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.2% (medium assumption)	. .	. .	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.5% (low assumption)	. .	. .	. .
0.5% annual decline in paternity rates (low assumption)
Fertility rates	Constant (high assumption)	. .	. .	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.2% (medium assumption)	. .	Low series	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.5% (low assumption)	. .	. .	. .

. . not applicable

Constant levels of net interstate migration using the average of the 2016 and 2021 Census years.

Alternative series showing sensitivity of mortality assumption, assumptions used(a)
		Life expectancy at birth
		High increase	Medium increase	Constant (low assumption)
0.5% annual increase in paternity rates (high assumption)
Fertility rates	Constant (high assumption)	. .	. .	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.2% (medium assumption)	. .	. .	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.5% (low assumption)	. .	. .	. .
Constant paternity rates (medium assumption)
Fertility rates	Constant (high assumption)	. .	. .	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.2% (medium assumption)	High series	. .	Low series
	Annual decrease of 1.5% (low assumption)	. .	. .	. .
0.5% annual decline in paternity rates (low assumption)
Fertility rates	Constant (high assumption)	. .	. .	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.2% (medium assumption)	. .	. .	. .
	Annual decrease of 1.5% (low assumption)	. .	. .	. .

. . not applicable

Constant levels of net interstate migration using the average of the 2016 and 2021 Census years.

Which series to use

The 3 main series respectively imply a high, medium and low overall growth rate of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. It is expected that the medium series will be the most appropriate choice for most users. The ABS will be using the medium series in calculating fertility and mortality rates for inclusion in its annual Births and Deaths publications.

The effect of alternative assumptions on the size of the future Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population is described in Sensitivity to Projection Assumptions.

The population projections are not intended as forecasts or predictions but are illustrations of growth and change in the population that would occur if assumptions made about future demographic trends were to prevail over the projection period. Future uncertainty, along with the subjective nature of assessing current trends, means that using a range of possible outcomes rather than a single projection series acknowledges a range of the possible future size, distribution and age structure of Australia's Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population.

There is also some level of uncertainty surrounding 2021 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Census counts and population estimates on which the projections are based, as well as data quality issues relating to registered births and deaths of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. Information on data quality issues related to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander estimates and projections are available in the Quality Declaration.

Fertility and paternity

The ABS Births collection identifies a birth as being an Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander person where either parent identifies as being of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin on the birth registration form.

Therefore, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander births may be attributed to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander:

mothers, irrespective of whether or not the father identified as being of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin
fathers, irrespective of whether or not the mother identified as being of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin.

For simplicity, birth rates of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander mothers are referred to in this release as fertility rates, while birth rates where the father is Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and the mother's Indigenous status is non-Indigenous or not stated are referred to as paternity rates.

To produce population projections using the cohort-component method, assumptions for each year of the projection period are required for age-specific fertility rates, age-specific paternity rates and the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander sex ratio at birth.

Indigenous status of parents

Of the 24,388 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander births registered in 2022:

23% were births for which both parents were identified as being of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander origin on the birth certificate
45% were births where only the mother was of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander origin (including births where paternity was not acknowledged or the father's Indigenous status was not stated)
32% were births where only the father was of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander origin (including births where the mother's Indigenous status was not stated).

Indigenous status of parents, Australia, 2006 to 2022
Year of Registration	Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander mother and father (%)	Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander mother(a) and non-Indigenous father (%)	Non-Indigenous mother and Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander father(b) (%)
2006	30	42	29
2007	32	40	28
2008	32	41	27
2009	31	43	27
2010	31	42	26
2011	31	42	27
2012	30	42	28
2013	29	42	28
2014	29	43	28
2015	30	43	28
2016	27	44	29
2017	27	43	30
2018	25	45	30
2019	25	45	30
2020	25	44	31
2021	23	46	31
2022	23	45	32

Indigenous status of parents, Australia, 2006 to 2022

["Year of Registration","Aboriginal and\/or Torres Strait Islander mother and father","Aboriginal and\/or Torres Strait Islander mother(a) and non-Indigenous father","Non-Indigenous mother and Aboriginal and\/or Torres Strait Islander father(b)"]

[["2006","2007","2008","2009","2010","2011","2012","2013","2014","2015","2016","2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022"],[[30],[32],[32],[31],[31],[31],[30],[29],[29],[30],[27],[27],[25],[25],[25],[23],[23]],[[42],[40],[41],[43],[42],[42],[42],[42],[43],[43],[44],[43],[45],[45],[44],[46],[45]],[[29],[28],[27],[27],[26],[27],[28],[28],[28],[28],[29],[30],[30],[30],[31],[31],[32]]]

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Includes fathers whose Indigenous status was not stated.
Includes mothers whose Indigenous status was not stated.

Source(s): Births Australia, 2022

The proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander births attributed to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander mothers and/or Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fathers differs considerably between the states and territories.

In 2022:

Western Australia had the highest proportion of births (42%) where both the mother and father were Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander
Victoria had the lowest proportion of births (10%) where both mother and father were Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander
42% of births in Tasmania were to non-Indigenous mothers and Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander fathers (11% in the Northern Territory).

Indigenous status of parents by states and territories of usual residence, 2022
State or territory of usual residence	Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander mother and father (%)	Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander mother and non-Indigenous father(a) (%)	Non-Indigenous mother(b) and Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander father (%)
NSW	19	47	34
Vic.	10	49	41
Qld	24	44	32
SA	22	45	33
WA	42	33	25
Tas.	15	43	42
NT	34	55	11
ACT	11	49	40
Aust.(c)	23	45	32

Indigenous status of parents by states and territories of usual residence, 2022

["State or territory of usual residence","Aboriginal and\/or Torres Strait Islander mother and father","Aboriginal and\/or Torres Strait Islander mother and non-Indigenous father(a)","Non-Indigenous mother(b) and Aboriginal and\/or Torres Strait Islander father"]

[["NSW","Vic.","Qld","SA","WA","Tas.","NT","ACT","Aust.(c)"],[[19],[10],[24],[22],[42],[15],[34],[11],[23]],[[47],[49],[44],[45],[33],[43],[55],[49],[45]],[[34],[41],[32],[33],[25],[42],[11],[40],[32]]]

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Includes fathers whose Indigenous status was not stated.
Includes mothers whose Indigenous status was not stated.
Includes Other Territories.

Source(s): Births Australia, 2022

Sex ratio at birth

Population projections require an assumed sex ratio at birth in order to split total projected births into male and female births. The sex ratio for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander births registered in Australia during 2018-2022 fluctuates around 102 to 107 male births per 100 female births. A constant ratio of 105 males per 100 female births has been assumed for the duration of the projection period.

Fertility assumptions

Three main assumptions have been made for future fertility rates of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women:

constant fertility rates at the 2021 level
an annual decline of 1.2% in fertility rates
an annual decline of 1.5% in fertility rates.

These assumptions were primarily chosen on the basis of the declining trend in fertility as indicated by data from the 'children ever born' question asked across successive Censuses.

The same rate of decline in fertility rates have been assumed for each state and territory, Indigenous Region and Remoteness Area.

Trends in fertility rates

Children ever born

Cohort fertility rates, based on the 'children ever born' question asked in the Census illustrate a decline in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility over time.

The number of children ever born provides information on actual fertility outcomes of women of different ages. In particular, the number of children ever born to women aged 40 to 44 years can be regarded as a measure of completed fertility; that is, on average how many children this group of women each had throughout their entire reproductive lifetimes.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women aged 40 to 44 years had on average:

3.97 babies per woman in the 1986 Census
3.10 babies per woman in the 1996 Census
2.84 babies per woman in the 2006 Census
2.82 babies per woman in the 2011 Census
2.77 babies per woman in the 2016 Census
2.68 babies per woman in the 2021 Census.

The average number of children ever born to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women has been declining for each age group for more than 3 decades. These declines, particularly in the younger age groups, indicate probable declines in the future overall level of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility.

Average number of children ever born to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women, Census years(a)(b)
Age group (yrs)	1981	1986	1996	2006	2011	2016	2021
15-19	0.42	0.32	0.24	0.16	0.13	0.09	0.05
20-24	1.48	1.22	1.05	0.85	0.76	0.61	0.42
25-29	2.58	2.20	1.88	1.73	1.59	1.38	1.16
30-34	3.47	2.97	2.53	2.38	2.33	2.08	1.88
35-39	4.15	3.49	2.89	2.74	2.73	2.59	2.40
40-44	4.55	3.97	3.10	2.84	2.82	2.77	2.68

Average number of children ever born to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women, Census years(a)(b)

["Age group (yrs)","1981","1986","1996","2006","2011","2016","2021"]

[["15-19","20-24","25-29","30-34","35-39","40-44"],[[0.41999999999999998],[1.48],[2.5800000000000001],[3.4700000000000002],[4.1500000000000004],[4.5499999999999998]],[[0.32000000000000001],[1.22],[2.2000000000000002],[2.9700000000000002],[3.4900000000000002],[3.9700000000000002]],[[0.23999999999999999],[1.05],[1.8799999999999999],[2.5299999999999998],[2.8900000000000001],[3.1000000000000001]],[[0.16],[0.84999999999999998],[1.73],[2.3799999999999999],[2.7400000000000002],[2.8399999999999999]],[[0.13],[0.76000000000000001],[1.5900000000000001],[2.3300000000000001],[2.73],[2.8199999999999998]],[[0.089999999999999997],[0.60999999999999999],[1.3799999999999999],[2.0800000000000001],[2.5899999999999999],[2.77]],[[0.050000000000000003],[0.41999999999999998],[1.1599999999999999],[1.8799999999999999],[2.3999999999999999],[2.6800000000000002]]]

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Average number of children ever born calculated on assumption that women with 6 or more children had an average of 6.9 children.
The children ever born question was not asked in the 1991 and 2001 Censuses.

Source(s): 1981, 1986,1996, 2006, 2001, 2016 and 2021 Censuses of Population and Housing

Total fertility rate

The total fertility rate (TFR), based on birth registrations, represents the number of children a female would bear during her lifetime if she experienced current age-specific fertility rates at each age of her reproductive life (ages 15 to 49 years).

The TFR for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women:

was 1.86 babies per woman in 2006, increasing to 2.35 in 2010
decreasing over the period 2011 to 2014 before increasing to 2.37 babies per woman by 2018
then decreasing once again over the period 2019 and 2020 before increasing to 2.35 babies per woman in 2022.

Total fertility rate(a), Australia(b), 2006 to 2022
Year	Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women TFR	All women TFR
2006	1.86	1.88
2007	2.15	1.99
2008	2.25	2.02
2009	2.32	1.97
2010	2.35	1.95
2011	2.31	1.92
2012	2.29	1.93
2013	2.26	1.88
2014	2.15	1.80
2015	2.20	1.80
2016	2.12	1.79
2017	2.26	1.74
2018	2.37	1.75
2019	2.32	1.67
2020	2.25	1.59
2021	2.34	1.70
2022	2.35	1.63

Total fertility rate(a), Australia(b), 2006 to 2022

["Year","Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women TFR","All women TFR"]

[["2006","2007","2008","2009","2010","2011","2012","2013","2014","2015","2016","2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022"],[[1.8600000000000001],[2.1499999999999999],[2.25],[2.3199999999999998],[2.3500000000000001],[2.3100000000000001],[2.29],[2.2599999999999998],[2.1499999999999999],[2.2000000000000002],[2.1200000000000001],[2.2599999999999998],[2.3700000000000001],[2.3199999999999998],[2.25],[2.3399999999999999],[2.3500000000000001]],[[1.8799999999999999],[1.99],[2.02],[1.97],[1.95],[1.9199999999999999],[1.9299999999999999],[1.8799999999999999],[1.8],[1.8],[1.79],[1.74],[1.75],[1.6699999999999999],[1.5900000000000001],[1.7],[1.6299999999999999]]]

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a. Births per Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander woman.
b. Includes Other Territories.

Source(s): Births Australia, 2022

Choice of fertility assumption

In summary, while fertility rates based on birth registrations of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children may provide some evidence for assuming constant or increasing Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility, cohort fertility rates based on the 'children ever born' question asked in the Census indicate long-term declines. Assumptions that take both sets of evidence into account have been made but with more emphasis given to the 'children ever born' data.

High series: assumes constant fertility rate as observed on 30 June 2021.
Medium series: assumes an annual decline of -1.2%. This is based on trend in 2011-2021 in the total population TFR using the respective Census years’ ERP.
Low series: assumes an annual decline of -1.5%. This is a faster decline than the trend in 2011-2021 in the total population TFR based on the respective Census years’ ERP.

Method used to produce fertility assumptions

Assumed age-specific fertility rates for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women are based on 3 years of birth registrations (2020-2022) in order to minimise the effect of year-to-year fluctuations in registrations. These rates were adjusted to produce plausible numbers of projected births in the first year of the projection period in accordance with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates at younger ages.

As rates are required on a financial year basis they were adjusted to account for the 6-month period between the mid-point of the period 2020 to 2022 (calendar year fertility rates) and 2021 to 2022 (financial year fertility rates).

Assumed declines in fertility rates are applied uniformly across relevant age groups.

Assumed fertility rate(a) by age groups and states and territories of usual residence
	15-19(b)	20-24	25-29	30-34	35-39	40-44	45-49(c)	TFR(d)
Year ended 30 June 2022
NSW	32.4	106.4	123.9	101.3	48.3	11.2	0.3	2.1
Vic.	23.3	79.6	98.4	90.3	47.1	9.2	0.3	1.7
Qld	39.4	127.6	132.8	99.8	50.6	13.1	0.9	2.3
SA	28.7	99.9	108.4	81.6	44.4	7.3	1.2	1.9
WA	52.6	134.5	123.9	97.7	46.4	12.6	0.5	2.3
Tas.	21.0	93.1	104.5	65.1	43.7	7.0	0.4	1.7
NT	49.3	109.9	103.4	68.5	35.3	11.3	0.4	1.9
ACT	14.3	68.0	105.6	83.7	37.6	10.2	0.0	1.6
Aust.(e)	36.7	112.3	120.8	93.8	46.8	11.4	0.6	2.1
Year ended 30 June 2031
NSW	29.0	95.4	111.1	90.8	43.3	10.0	0.3	1.9
Vic.	20.9	71.4	88.2	81.0	42.2	8.3	0.3	1.6
Qld	35.4	114.5	119.1	89.6	45.4	11.7	0.8	2.1
SA	25.7	89.7	97.2	73.2	39.8	6.6	1.1	1.7
WA	47.2	120.6	111.1	87.6	41.6	11.3	0.5	2.1
Tas.	18.8	83.6	93.7	58.4	39.2	6.2	0.4	1.5
NT	44.3	98.6	92.8	61.5	31.6	10.1	0.4	1.7
ACT	12.8	61.0	94.8	75.1	33.7	9.2	0.0	1.4
Aust.(e)	32.9	100.8	108.4	84.2	42.0	10.2	0.5	1.9

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Births per 1,000 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women.
Includes births to mothers aged less than 15 years.
Includes births to mothers aged 50 years and over.
Births per Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander woman.
Includes Other Territories.

Regional variations in fertility

Indigenous Regions

The projections in this release apply fertility assumptions for sub-state geographies by aggregating Indigenous Regions (IREGs) into 2 groups for each state and territory (except Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory):

Capital city IREG (for example, Adelaide IREG)
Rest of state/territory IREGs combined (for example, Port Augusta IREG and Port Lincoln - Ceduna IREG combined).

Assumed total fertility rate(a) by Indigenous Regions
Indigenous Regions	30 June 2022	30 June 2031
Sydney IREG	1.9	1.7
Rest of NSW	2.1	1.9
Melbourne IREG	1.5	1.3
Rest of Vic.	2.0	1.8
Brisbane IREG	2.0	1.8
Rest of Qld	2.5	2.2
Adelaide IREG	1.8	1.6
Rest of SA	1.8	1.6
Perth IREG	2.2	1.9
Rest of WA	2.4	2.2
Tasmania IREG	1.7	1.5
Darwin IREG	2.2	2.0
Rest of NT	1.8	1.6
ACT IREG	1.6	1.4
Australia(b)	2.1	1.9

Births per Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander woman.
Includes Other Territories.

Remoteness Areas

Assumed fertility rates for Remoteness Areas were calculated using the same technique as for the states and territories.

Assumed total fertility rate(a) by Remoteness Areas
Remoteness Areas	30 June 2022	30 June 2031
Major Cities	1.9	1.7
Inner and Outer Regional	2.3	2.1
Remote and Very Remote	2.1	1.9
Australia(b)	2.1	1.9

Births per Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander woman.
Includes Other Territories.

Paternity assumptions

The total paternity rate (TPR) is defined as the average number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander babies born per Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander father where the mother's Indigenous status is non-Indigenous or not stated, and is calculated in the same way as the TFR.

Three main assumptions have been made for future paternity rates:

an annual increase of 0.5%
constant paternity rates
an annual decrease of 0.5%.

Constant paternity rates have been assumed for each state and territory, Indigenous Region, and Remoteness Area.

Trends in paternity rates

As with the TFR, the time series of the TPR is based on population estimates which are not strictly comparable over time. Based on birth registrations, the TPR remained constant at 1.03 births per Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander male between 2011 and 2022.

Total paternity rate(a)(b), Australia, 2011 to 2022
Year	2016 Census-based TPR	2021 Census-based TPR
2011	0.92	1.03
2012	0.99	1.03
2013	0.96	1.03
2014	0.90	1.03
2015	0.90	1.03
2016	0.93	1.03
2017	1.04	1.03
2018	1.11	1.03
2019	1.08	1.03
2020	1.08	1.03
2021	1.14	1.03
2022	1.18	1.03

Total paternity rate(a)(b), Australia, 2011 to 2022

["Year","2016 Census-based TPR","2021 Census-based TPR"]

[["2011","2012","2013","2014","2015","2016","2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022"],[[0.92000000000000004],[0.98999999999999999],[0.95999999999999996],[0.90000000000000002],[0.90000000000000002],[0.93000000000000005],[1.04],[1.1100000000000001],[1.0800000000000001],[1.0800000000000001],[1.1399999999999999],[1.1799999999999999]],[[1.03],[1.03],[1.03],[1.03],[1.03],[1.03],[1.03],[1.03],[1.03],[1.03],[1.03],[1.03]]]

[]

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Births to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander males, where the mother's Indigenous status was non-Indigenous or not stated. The TPR is calculated in the same way as the TFR.

Choice of paternity assumption

The 'children ever born' question is not asked of males in the Census. Therefore, there is no reliable source other than birth registrations for calculating paternity rate.

High series: assumes an annual increase in paternity rate of 0.5%.
Medium series: assumes constant paternity rate over the projection period.
Low series: assumes an annual decrease of 0.5% in paternity rate.

Method used to produce paternity assumptions

Assumed age-specific paternity rates for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men are based on 3 years of birth registrations (2020-2022) where the mother's Indigenous status is non-Indigenous or not stated. Assumed constant paternity rates are applied uniformly across relevant age groups.

Regional variations in paternity

Indigenous Regions

Assumed paternity rates for IREGs were calculated using the same technique as for the states and territories.

Assumed paternity rate(a) by age groups and states and territories of usual residence
	15-19(b)	20-24	25-29	30-34	35-39	40-44	45-49(c)	TPR(d)
Year ended 30 June 2022
NSW	5.4	36.6	63.5	67.3	42.6	19.4	8.6	1.2
Vic.	7.0	33.8	59.1	73.0	46.5	24.2	15.5	1.3
Qld	6.8	37.3	61.8	62.0	36.4	16.6	8.3	1.1
SA	6.3	30.9	51.6	47.9	34.0	14.1	6.9	1.0
WA	4.5	23.8	38.6	34.2	21.9	11.5	5.4	0.7
Tas.	6.4	39.3	68.8	60.8	47.4	14.2	7.3	1.2
NT	0.8	5.9	13.6	11.4	7.4	2.4	3.5	0.2
ACT	2.8	24.4	61.8	66.5	42.8	37.5	9.7	1.2
Aust.(e)	5.5	32.2	54.7	55.2	34.7	15.9	8.1	1.0
Year ended 30 June 2031
NSW	5.4	36.6	63.5	67.3	42.6	19.4	8.6	1.2
Vic.	7.0	33.8	59.1	73.0	46.5	24.2	15.5	1.3
Qld	6.8	37.3	61.8	62.0	36.4	16.6	8.3	1.1
SA	6.3	30.9	51.6	47.9	34.0	14.1	6.9	1.0
WA	4.5	23.8	38.6	34.2	21.9	11.5	5.4	0.7
Tas.	6.4	39.3	68.8	60.8	47.4	14.2	7.3	1.2
NT	0.8	5.9	13.6	11.4	7.4	2.4	3.5	0.2
ACT	2.8	24.4	61.8	66.5	42.8	37.5	9.7	1.2
Aust.(e)	5.5	32.2	54.7	55.2	34.7	15.9	8.1	1.0

Births to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men, where the mother's Indigenous status was non-Indigenous or not stated, per 1,000 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men.
Includes births to fathers aged less than 15 years.
Includes births to fathers aged 50 years and over.
Births to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men, where the mother's Indigenous status was non-Indigenous or not stated, per Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander man.
Includes Other Territories.

Assumed total paternity rate(a) by Indigenous Regions
Indigenous Regions	30 June 2022	30 June 2031
Sydney IREG	1.3	1.3
Rest of NSW	1.1	1.1
Melbourne IREG	1.2	1.2
Rest of Vic.	1.4	1.4
Brisbane IREG	1.3	1.3
Rest of Qld	0.9	0.9
Adelaide IREG	1.1	1.1
Rest of SA	0.5	0.5
Perth IREG	0.9	0.9
Rest of WA	0.5	0.5
Tasmania IREG	1.2	1.2
Darwin IREG	0.5	0.5
Rest of NT	0.1	0.1
ACT IREG	1.2	1.2
Australia(b)	1.0	1.0

Births to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men, where the mother's Indigenous status was non-Indigenous or not stated, per Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander man.
Includes Other Territories.

Remoteness Areas

Assumed paternity rates for Remoteness Areas were calculated using the same technique as for the states and territories.

Assumed total paternity rate(a) by Remoteness Areas
Remoteness Areas	30 June 2022	30 June 2031
Major Cities	1.3	1.3
Inner and Outer Regional	1.1	1.1
Remote and Very Remote	0.3	0.3
Australia(b)	1.0	1.0

Births to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men, where the mother's Indigenous status was non-Indigenous or not stated, per Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander man.
Includes Other Territories.

Mortality assumptions

To produce population projections using the cohort-component method, life tables are required for each year of the projection period. These are calculated in 2 steps:

life expectancy at birth for each projection year is assumed
life tables, based on the 2020-2022 age/sex structure of mortality, are generated to match the assumed life expectancies at birth.

Survivorship ratios from the life tables are then applied to the population by single year of age and sex.

Assumptions for mortality at lower geographical levels are based on 2020-2022 differentials between Australia and each state or territory, groups of Indigenous Regions, and Remoteness Areas.

Current life expectancy at birth

At the national level, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth for the period 2020-2022 is estimated to be 71.9 years for males and 75.6 years for females (see Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy, 2020-2022).

As survivorship ratios are needed on a financial year basis, it is necessary to adjust life expectancy at birth estimates to account for the 6-month period between the midpoint of 2020-2022 (calendar year life expectancy) and 2020-2021 (financial year life expectancy). However, this adjustment was not required this time as constant mortality assumption at the 2020-2022 level was used for producing backcast estimates. This means that midpoint of calendar year life expectancy was the same as financial year life expectancy.

Trends in life expectancy at birth

The ABS has compiled life tables for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians after each Census since 1996. Due to changes in the methods and identification over time, 2020-2022 estimates of life expectancy at birth are not comparable to estimates for earlier periods. Assumptions about future levels of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth have therefore only be based on observed trends over the 2 most recent intercensal periods.

A study (Wilson, Condon and Barnes, 2007) found evidence that in the Northern Territory:

life expectancy at birth increased from 52 years for males and 54 years for females in the 1960's, to 60 years and 68 years respectively in recent years
improvements in infant mortality contributed to increases in life expectancy at birth between the late 1960's and early 1980's.
Since then, life expectancy gains have been largely the result of improving mortality of people aged 45 years and over.

In addition, alternative measures indicate some improvement in mortality of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians between 1991 and 2005. This includes declines in:

mortality as measured by age-standardised death rates have been recorded in Western Australia and for females in the Northern Territory
infant mortality have been recorded in Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory.

For more information see The Health and Welfare of Australia's Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples, Oct 2010, cat. no. 4704.0, Wang Z and Li SQ, 2010, Mortality in the Northern Territory 1967-2006, Health Gains Planning Information Sheet, Dec 2010, Northern Territory Government, Casuarina NT and SCRGSP (Steering Committee for the Review of Government Service Provision) 2011, Overcoming Indigenous Disadvantage: Key Indicators 2011, Productivity Commission, Canberra.

Assumed life expectancy at birth

Three life expectancy at birth assumptions have been used to produce the 3 main series.

Life expectancy at birth by sex and assumptions
	Assumption		Life expectancy at birth, 30 June 2031
	Males	Females	Males	Females
High series (a)	Annual increase of 0.29 years	Annual increase of 0.20 years	74.8	77.6
Medium series (b)	Annual increase of 0.15 years	Annual increase of 0.10 years	73.4	76.6
Low series (c)	Constant years	Constant years	71.9	75.6

Assumes that life expectancy will increase at a rate observed in the total Australian population in the last 30 years.
Assumes Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy will increase at the rate observed in the total Australian population over the last 10 years.
Assumes Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy will be constant at 2020 estimate levels.

State/territory variations in mortality

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth differs between the states and territories. For the purposes of these projections, mortality differentials between each state/territory and Australia are calculated and applied to the assumed Australian life expectancies at birth to obtain assumed life expectancy at birth for the states and territories. This method assumes that the mortality differentials, based on those observed during 2020-2022, will remain constant throughout the projection period.

Due to small numbers of deaths registered as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander it was not possible to produce Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life tables for Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. For the purposes of the projections it is assumed that life expectancy at birth for:

Victoria and Tasmania are the same as that for New South Wales
South Australia is the same as that for Western Australia
The Australian Capital Territory is the same as that derived for the Sydney Indigenous Region.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth and mortality differentials(a) by sex and selected states and territory and Australia, 2020-2022
	Life expectancy at birth		Mortality differentials
	Males (yrs)	Females (yrs)	Males (%)	Females (%)
NSW	73.8	77.9	103	103
Qld	72.9	76.6	101	101
WA	68.9	72.6	96	96
NT	65.6	69.4	91	92
Aust.(b)	71.9	75.6	100	100

Mortality differentials are calculated based on the relationship of 2020-2022 life expectancies at birth for each state/territory.
Includes all states and territories.

Regional variations in mortality

Indigenous Regions

To apply assumptions on life expectancy at birth for alternative geographies, Indigenous Regions (IREGs) were aggregated into 2 groups for each state and territory (except Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory):

Capital city IREG (for example, Adelaide IREG)
Rest of state/territory IREGs combined (for example, Port Augusta IREG and Port Lincoln - Ceduna IREG combined).

To account for under-identification of deaths of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people at smaller geographic level, the number of registered deaths of Aboriginal and Torres Islander people for each IREG group in 2020-2022 was adjusted using state and territory adjustment factors from the 2021 to 2022 Census and deaths linked data. For more information about the derivation and use of adjustment factors in the compilation of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life tables for the states and territories, see Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy, 2020–2022.

A life table methodology was used to obtain life expectancy at birth for 2020-2022 for each IREG group using adjusted deaths in conjunction with the 2021 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population for each IREG group. Differentials were calculated as the ratio of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth for each IREG group. This method assumes that under-identification of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths is consistent across all regions within each state and territory as information on under-identification is not available at IREG level. Mortality differentials are assumed to remain constant throughout the projection period.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth and mortality differentials(a) by Indigenous Regions and selected states and territories of usual residence, 2020-2022
	Male mortality differentials		Female mortality differentials
	Capital city IREG (%)	Rest of state IREG group (%)	Capital city IREG (%)	Rest of state IREG group (%)
NSW	102	103	104	103
Qld	105	99	103	100
WA	101	93	99	94
NT	100	89	96	91
Aust.(b)	100	100	100	100

Mortality differentials based on the relationship of 2020-2022 life expectancies at birth for each capital city IREG and rest of state IREG group.
Includes Other Territories.

As noted above, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life tables were not produced for Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. The following differentials have been used for IREG groups in these states and territories:

Victoria: Melbourne IREG uses the Sydney IREG differential, the rest of Victoria IREG uses the rest of New South Wales IREG group differential
South Australia: Adelaide IREG uses the Perth IREG differential, and the rest of South Australia IREG group uses the rest of Western Australia IREG group differential
Tasmania uses the New South Wales state differential
The Australia Capital Territory uses the Sydney IREG differential.

Remoteness Areas

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth differentials for Remoteness Areas were calculated using the same method as that used for IREG groups.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth and mortality differentials(a) by sex and Remoteness Areas and Australia, 2020-2022
Remoteness Areas	Life expectancy at birth		Mortality differentials
Remoteness Areas	Males (yrs)	Females (yrs)	Males (%)	Females (%)
Major Cities of Australia	72.5	76.5	101	101
Inner and Outer Regional Australia	72.8	76.7	101	101
Remote and Very Remote Australia	67.3	71.3	94	94
Australia(b)	71.9	75.6	100	100

Mortality differentials based on the relationship of 2020-2022 life expectancies at birth for each Remoteness Area.
Includes all states and territories.

Interstate migration assumption

One assumption has been made for future net internal migration of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people:

constant levels of net interstate migration using the average of the 2016 and 2021 Census years based on address 5 years ago.

Trends in interstate migration

The 'place of usual residence five years ago' Census questions shows that the number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people who changed their state or territory of usual residence between:

2016 and 2021 was 31,970
2011 and 2016 was 25,960.

This measure was unable to account for:

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children under 5 years of age on Census night
people whose place of residence 5 years ago was overseas
people whose state or territory of usual residence 5 years ago was not recorded.

In addition, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people overseas on Census night were not counted in the Census.

Interstate arrivals and departures(a)(b), 2016 to 2021(c)
State or territory of departure	State or territory of arrival								Total departures(d)
State or territory of departure	NSW	Vic.	Qld	SA	WA	Tas.	NT	ACT	Total departures(d)
NSW	. .	1,959	7,527	520	890	364	541	1,006	12,820
Vic.	1,532	. .	1,438	374	448	280	284	107	4,464
Qld	4,130	1,295	. .	459	1,092	398	1,023	379	8,779
SA	464	404	543	. .	302	59	436	49	2,256
WA	523	430	898	280	. .	129	489	60	2,812
Tas.	193	389	562	94	181	. .	46	42	1,507
NT	426	524	1,480	600	657	64	. .	65	3,815
ACT	972	139	420	37	56	18	66	. .	1,713
Total arrivals (d)	8,267	5,140	12,871	2,365	3,632	1,313	2,886	1,707	38,206
Net movements	-4,553	676	4,092	109	821	-195	-929	-6	. .

. . not applicable

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children under 5 years of age on Census night were excluded, as were people whose place of usual residence 5 years ago was overseas or was not recorded.
Data is adjusted to account for Census net undercount and records for which Indigenous status was not stated. See section: Method used to produce interstate migration assumption.
Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents – see Census Dictionary, 2021.
Includes all states and territories.

Method used to produce interstate migration assumption

One assumption has been made for future net internal migration of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people:

in acknowledgement of the impacts on population movement due to the response to COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021, constant levels of net interstate migration using the average of 2016 and 2021 Census years based on address 5 years ago.

These figures are affected by a number of data quality issues, including Census net undercount and records for which Indigenous status was not stated. To account for these, net interstate migration estimates were adjusted by a proportion calculated by dividing Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander ERP by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Census counts, for each state and territory.

The adjusted net interstate migration estimates were then divided by 5 to obtain annual movements, which were assumed to remain constant over the projection period. In addition, they were used as constraints on migration assumptions for Indigenous Regions and Remoteness Areas.

Assumed net interstate migration(a)
	NSW	Vic.	Qld	SA	WA	Tas.	NT	ACT
Annual net migration	-683	175	555	42	132	-46	-200	25

Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents – see Census Dictionary, 2021.

Age/sex profile of interstate migration

The age/sex profile of intestate migration was derived from the 'place of usual residence one year ago' question from the 2021 Census. Arrival and departure rates for the states and territories were calculated by single year of age and sex and adjustments were made where appropriate to ensure the age/sex profiles of projected populations were plausible. To be consistent with the method of calculating net interstate migration, the average of the 2016 and 2021 arrivals and departures rates was used for the whole projection period. All age/sex arrival and departure disaggregations were constrained by the net internal migration assumption at the state/territory level.

Indigenous Regions migration

Annual net migration estimates for each IREG were calculated in the same way as for the states and territories and were assumed to remain constant over the 10-year projection period.

Assumed net internal migration by Indigenous Regions
Indigenous Region	Annual net migration
Dubbo	-104
North-Eastern NSW	-125
North-Western NSW	-132
NSW Central and North Coast	237
Riverina - Orange	-73
South-Eastern NSW	-59
Sydney - Wollongong	-427
Melbourne	36
Victoria exc. Melbourne	139
Brisbane	643
Cairns - Atherton	46
Cape York	-170
Mount Isa	-96
Rockhampton	128
Toowoomba - Roma	-22
Torres Strait	-122
Townsville - Mackay	148
Adelaide	71
Port Augusta	-15
Port Lincoln - Ceduna	-14
Broome	-2
Geraldton	-50
Kalgoorlie	-49
Kununurra	-29
Perth	384
South Hedland	-51
South-Western WA	-50
West Kimberly	-21
Tasmania	-46
Alice Springs	0
Apatula	-29
Darwin	8
Jabiru - Tiwi	-22
Katherine	-127
Nhulunbuy	4
Tennant Creek	-34
Australian Capital Territory	25
Christmas - Cocos (Keeling) Is.	-1
Jervis Bay	-1
Norfolk Island	2

Remoteness Areas migration

Annual net migration estimates for each Remoteness Area were calculated in the same way as for states and territories, and were assumed to remain constant over the 10-year projection period.

Assumed net internal migration by Remoteness Areas
Remoteness Areas	Annual net migration
Major Cities of Australia	983
Inner and Outer Regional Australia	36
Remote and Very Remote Australia	-1019

Overseas migration assumption

Unexplained growth assumption

Sensitivity to projection assumptions

This section discusses the effect of differing levels of components of population change on the projected size, structure and numbers of births and deaths of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians. Overall, sensitivity analysis shows that varying the assumptions appears to have a minimal effect on the size of the projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population.

Fertility rates

Sensitivity analysis was undertaken into the effect of fertility assumptions on the size of the future Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and the number of projected births. The below table shows the projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait population and births in 2031 under 3 fertility assumptions:

Assuming fertility rates remain constant (high series) it is projected that:

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia will reach 1,188,900 people in 2031 (up from 1,179,100 in the medium series in 2031)
births will be higher than in the medium series in 2031 (28,870 compared with 26,840)
this will result in more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children aged 0 to 14 years in 2031 than in the medium series (366,400 compared with 356,600).

Based on the medium fertility assumption series (1.2% annual decline in fertility rates):

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 1,179,100 people in 2031 (up from 983,700 in the medium series in 2021)
births are projected to increase from 23,540 in 2022 to 26,840 in 2031.

Assuming a 1.5% annual decline in fertility rates (low series):

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 1,176,700 people in 2031 (down from 1,179,100 people in the medium series in 2031)
births will be lower than in the medium series in 2031 (26,360 compared with 26,840)
this will result in fewer Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children aged 0 to 14 years in 2031 than in the medium series (354,300 compared with 356,600).

Estimated and projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and births(a) and alternative fertility assumptions(b) by states and territories and Australia
		NSW	Vic.	Qld	SA	WA	Tas.	NT	ACT	Aust. (c)
Population ('000)
2021		339.7	78.7	273.1	52.1	120.0	33.9	76.5	9.5	983.7
2031	Constant (high series)	407.7	97.3	344.8	61.2	144.6	38.8	82.2	12.0	1188.9
	1.2% annual decrease (medium series)	404.4	96.6	341.7	60.8	143.2	38.6	81.6	11.9	1179.1
	1.5% annual decrease (low series)	403.6	96.5	341.0	60.7	142.9	38.5	81.4	11.9	1176.7
Births
2022(d)		8,293	1,821	7,158	1,127	2,848	689	1,371	229	23,539
2031	Constant (high series)	10,216	2,331	9,028	1,338	3,425	819	1,404	298	28,866
	1.2% annual decrease (medium series)	9,532	2,191	8,388	1,247	3,150	769	1,275	280	26,838
	1.5% annual decrease (low series)	9,372	2,158	8,237	1,225	3,086	758	1,244	276	26,362

Assumptions relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander paternity rates, life expectancy at birth and interstate migration are at levels specified for the medium series.
Constant levels of net interstate migration using the average of the 2016 and 2021 Census years.
Includes Other Territories.
Number of births projected under the medium series.

Paternity rates

Sensitivity analysis was undertaken into the effect of paternity assumptions on the size of the future Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and the number of projected births.

The below table shows the projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait population and births in 2031 under the 3 paternity assumptions:

Assuming a 0.5% annual increase in paternity rates (high series):

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 1,181,100 people in 2031 (up from 1,179,100 people in the medium series in 2031)
births will be higher than in the medium series in 2031 (27,260 births compared with 26,840)
This will result in more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children aged 0 to 14 years in 2031 than in the medium series (358,600 compared with 356,600).

Based on the medium series paternity assumption (paternity rates remain constant):

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 1,179,100 people in 2031 (up from 983,700 in 2021)
births are projected to increase from 23,540 in 2022 to 26,840 in 2031.

Assuming a 0.5% annual decrease in paternity rates (low series) it is projected that:

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia will reach 1,177,200 people in 2031 (down from 1,179,100 in the medium series in 2031)
births will be lower than in the medium series in 2031 (26,430 births compared with 26,840)
This will result in fewer Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children aged 0 to 14 years in 2031 than in the medium series (354,700 compared with 356,600).

Estimated and projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and births(a), alternative paternity assumptions(b) by states and territories of usual residence
		NSW	Vic.	Qld	SA	WA	Tas.	NT	ACT	Aust. (c)
Population ('000)
2021		339.7	78.7	273.1	52.1	120.0	33.9	76.5	9.5	983.7
2031	0.5% annual increase (high series)	405.1	96.8	342.3	60.9	143.4	38.7	81.6	11.9	1,181.1
	Constant (medium series)	404.4	96.6	341.7	60.8	143.2	38.6	81.6	11.9	1,179.1
	0.5% annual decrease (low series)	403.6	96.4	341.1	60.7	143.1	38.5	81.6	11.9	1,177.2
Births
2022(d)		8,293	1,821	7,158	1,127	2,848	689	1,371	229	23,539
2031	0.5% annual increase (high series)	9,696	2,237	8,517	1,267	3,185	785	1,281	286	27,260
	Constant (medium series)	9,532	2,191	8,388	1,247	3,150	769	1,275	280	26,838
	0.5% annual decrease (low series)	9,373	2,149	8,263	1,227	3,117	755	1,268	275	26,433

Assumptions relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility rates, life expectancy at birth and interstate migration are at levels specified for the medium series.
Constant levels of net interstate migration using the average of the 2016 and 2021 Census years.
Includes Other Territories.
Number of births projected under the medium series.

Life expectancy at birth

Sensitivity analysis was undertaken into the effect of life expectancy at birth assumptions on the size of the future Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and the number of projected deaths.

The below table shows the projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait population and deaths in 2031 under the 3 life expectancy at birth assumptions:

Assuming an annual increase of 0.29 years for males and 0.20 years for females (high series):

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 1,181,900 people in 2031 (up from 1,179,100 in the medium series in 2031)
deaths are projected to be lower than in the medium series in 2031 (5,920 deaths compared with 6,430).

Based on the medium life expectancy assumption series (annual increase of 0.15 years for males and 0.10 years for females):

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 1,179,100 people in 2031 (up from 983,700 in 2021)
deaths are projected to increase from 5,070 in 2022 to 6,430 in 2031.

Assuming life expectancy to remain constant for males and females (low series) it is projected that:

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia will reach 1,176,000 people in 2031 (down from 1,179,100 in the medium series in 2031)
deaths are projected to be higher than in the medium series in 2031 (7,000 deaths compared with 6,430).

Estimated and projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and deaths(a), alternative life expectancy at birth assumptions(b) by states and territories of usual residence
		NSW	Vic.	Qld	SA	WA	Tas.	NT	ACT	Aust. (c)
Population ('000)
2021		339.7	78.7	273.1	52.1	120.0	33.9	76.5	9.5	983.7
2031	Annual increase of 0.29 years for males and 0.20 years for females (high series)	405.3	96.8	342.4	60.9	143.6	38.7	81.9	11.9	1,181.9
	Annual increase of 0.15 years for males and 0.10 years for females (medium series)	404.4	96.6	341.7	60.8	143.2	38.6	81.6	11.9	1,179.1
	Constant at the 2020-2022 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy estimates (low series)	403.3	96.4	340.9	60.6	142.9	38.5	81.3	11.9	1,176.0
Deaths
2022(d)		1,586	350	1,271	324	739	181	576	36	5,066
2031	Annual increase of 0.29 years for males and 0.20 years for females (high series)	1,844	409	1,562	367	846	215	628	45	5,918
	Annual increase of 0.15 years for males and 0.10 years for females (medium series)	2,016	448	1,698	396	913	234	673	49	6,430
	Constant at the 2020-2022 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy estimates (low series)	2,207	494	1,853	427	986	255	721	54	7,000

Assumptions relating to fertility rates, paternity rates and interstate migration are at levels specified for the medium series.
Constant levels of net interstate migration using the average of the 2016 and 2021 Census years.
Includes Other Territories.
Number of deaths projected under the medium series.

National

Population size and change

As at June 2021, there were 983,700 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, representing 3.8% of the total Australian population.

Between 2011 and 2021, Australia’s Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population increased by 2.0% (from 806,100 people) per year on average.
By 2031, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population is projected to increase between 1,171,700 (low series) and 1,193,600 people (high series).
The average annual growth rate of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in Australia is between 1.8% and 2.0% per year.
The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population is projected to reach 1 million people by 2022 in all 3 series.

Estimated and projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population, 2021 to 2031
Year	High series ('000)	Medium series ('000)	Low series ('000)
2021	983.7	983.7	983.7
2022	1,002.3	1,002.2	1,002.1
2023	1,021.4	1,021.0	1,020.7
2024	1,041.0	1,040.0	1,039.4
2025	1,061.2	1,059.2	1,058.1
2026	1,081.9	1,078.6	1,076.9
2027	1,103.2	1,098.3	1,095.8
2028	1,125.0	1,118.3	1,114.8
2029	1,147.4	1,138.4	1,133.8
2030	1,170.3	1,158.7	1,152.8
2031	1,193.6	1,179.1	1,171.7

Estimated and projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population, 2021 to 2031

["Year","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

[["2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031"],[[983.70000000000005],[1002.3],[1021.4],[1041],[1061.2],[1081.9000000000001],[1103.2],[1125],[1147.4000000000001],[1170.3],[1193.5999999999999]],[[983.70000000000005],[1002.2],[1021],[1040],[1059.2],[1078.5999999999999],[1098.3],[1118.3],[1138.4000000000001],[1158.7],[1179.0999999999999]],[[983.70000000000005],[1002.1],[1020.7],[1039.4000000000001],[1058.0999999999999],[1076.9000000000001],[1095.8],[1114.8],[1133.8],[1152.8],[1171.7]]]

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Natural increase

At the national level, any growth in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population is entirely due to natural increase as net overseas migration is assumed to be zero.

Although decreasing fertility rates are assumed, the number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander births is projected to increase over the projection period. This is due to the increase in the number of women of child-bearing ages over the projection period. As a result:

births are projected to increase from 23,540 in 2022 (medium series), to between 25,940 and 29,300 in 2031
deaths are projected to increase from 5,070 in 2022 (medium series), to between 5,930 and 6,990 in 2031
natural increase remains consistently high, increasing from 18,470 in 2022 (medium series) to between 18,950 and 23,370 in 2031.

Population structure

Estimated and projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population(a)(b), by age group, Australia, at 30 June
Age group (years)	2011	2021	2031 (high series)	2031 (medium series)	2031 (low series)
Number
0-14	294,544	325,842	368,478	356,596	352,180
15-24	147,195	182,553	219,206	219,153	219,086
25-34	108,745	145,478	180,636	180,502	180,378
35-44	102,548	106,136	142,398	142,205	141,987
45-54	79,421	97,782	101,809	101,559	101,266
55-64	46,413	72,570	90,177	89,725	89,229
65-74	19,442	38,069	60,616	59,945	59,208
75 and over	7,782	15,279	30,326	29,403	28,407
Total	806,090	983,709	1,193,646	1,179,088	1,171,741
Proportion
0-14	36.5	33.1	30.9	30.2	30.1
15-24	18.3	18.6	18.4	18.6	18.7
25-34	13.5	14.8	15.1	15.3	15.4
35-44	12.7	10.8	11.9	12.1	12.1
45-54	9.9	9.9	8.5	8.6	8.6
55-64	5.8	7.4	7.6	7.6	7.6
65-74	2.4	3.9	5.1	5.1	5.1
75 and over	1.0	1.6	2.5	2.5	2.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Estimates and projections based on the 2021 Census.
Due to rounding, proportions may not add to 100%.

The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population has a relatively young age structure with a median age of 24.0 years in 2021 (38.9 years for the non-Indigenous population).

in 2011 the median age was 22.0 years
by 2031 the median age is projected to be between 25.4 and 25.7 years.

The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population is projected to increase across all age groups between 2021 and 2031.

In 2021, the number of children aged 0 to 14 years was 325,800. This is projected to:

increase to between 352,200 and 368,500 children in 2031
decrease as a proportion of the population, from 33.1% in 2021 to between 30.1% and 30.9% in 2031.

The number of people aged 15 to 64 years was 604,500 in 2021. This is projected to:

increase to between 731,900 and 734,200 people in 2031
increase as a proportion of the population, from 61.5% in 2021 to between 61.5% and 62.5% in 2031.

In 2021, the number of people aged 65 years and over was 53,300. This is projected to:

increase to between 87,600 and 90,900 people in 2031
increase as a proportion of the population, from 5.4% in 2021 to between 7.5% and 7.6% in 2031.

Estimated and projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population by age group and sex, Australia, medium series, at 30 June
Age group (years)	2021 (Male)	2031 (Male)	2021 (Female)	2031 (Female)
0-4	54,602	66,808	51,196	63,392
5-9	56,392	61,941	52,611	58,813
10-14	56,668	54,504	54,373	51,138
15-19	49,137	56,236	46,777	52,512
20-24	44,344	56,242	42,295	54,163
25-29	39,857	48,506	38,707	46,506
30-34	33,678	43,558	33,236	41,932
35-39	28,420	38,875	28,701	38,197
40-44	23,725	32,570	25,290	32,563
45-49	24,432	27,177	25,690	27,830
50-54	22,815	22,349	24,845	24,203
55-59	19,164	22,527	20,960	24,189
60-64	15,524	20,258	16,922	22,751
65-69	10,846	15,944	12,043	18,250
70-74	7,191	11,965	7,989	13,786
75-79	3,690	7,479	4,386	8,898
80-84	1,806	3,997	2,540	4,887
85+	1,067	1,702	1,790	2,440

Estimated and projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population by age group and sex, Australia, medium series, at 30 June

["Age group (years)","2021 (Male)","2031 (Male)","2021 (Female)","2031 (Female)"]

[["0-4","5-9","10-14","15-19","20-24","25-29","30-34","35-39","40-44","45-49","50-54","55-59","60-64","65-69","70-74","75-79","80-84","85+"],[[54602],[56392],[56668],[49137],[44344],[39857],[33678],[28420],[23725],[24432],[22815],[19164],[15524],[10846],[7191],[3690],[1806],[1067]],[[66808],[61941],[54504],[56236],[56242],[48506],[43558],[38875],[32570],[27177],[22349],[22527],[20258],[15944],[11965],[7479],[3997],[1702]],[[51196],[52611],[54373],[46777],[42295],[38707],[33236],[28701],[25290],[25690],[24845],[20960],[16922],[12043],[7989],[4386],[2540],[1790]],[[63392],[58813],[51138],[52512],[54163],[46506],[41932],[38197],[32563],[27830],[24203],[24189],[22751],[18250],[13786],[8898],[4887],[2440]]]

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States and territories

All 3 series project continuing growth for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population for all states and territories between 2021 and 2031.

The average annual growth rate of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population is projected to be fastest growing of all states and territories for:

Queensland (between 2.2% and 2.4%)
the Australian Capital Territory (between 2.2% and 2.4% per year)
Victoria (between 2.0% and 2.2%).

These high rates of population growth in these states and territories are in part due to:

relatively large cohorts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people moving into peak child-bearing ages throughout the projection period
the assumed net interstate migration in some cases, notably for Queensland (a gain of 555 people per year) and Victoria (a gain of 175 people per year).

The states and territories with the lowest average annual growth rate of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population over the projection period are:

the Northern Territory (between 0.6% and 0.8% per year)
Tasmania (between 1.3% and 1.4% per year) on average. This lower rate of growth is due to the assumed net migration loss of 46 people per year.

The low growth rate in the Northern Territory is in part due to the age structure of its population which, unlike many of the other states and territories, is relatively stable. The absolute size of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in child-bearing age groups (aged 15 to 49 years) therefore increases relatively consistently throughout the projection period. As a result, projected numbers of births in the Northern Territory do not increase as rapidly as in other states and territories, and therefore population growth is slower. In addition, the projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in the Northern Territory will remain relatively stable due to a constant paternity assumption and a decline in the assumed net interstate migration (-200 people per year).

With relatively stable age structures, lower average annual growth rates are also projected for:

South Australia (between 1.5% and 1.7%)
Western Australia (between 1.7% and 1.9%).

Assumed net interstate migration for Western Australia (a gain of 132 people per year) and South Australia (a gain of 42 people per year) has a small positive effect on the rate of population growth over the projection period.

Estimated and projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population(a) by states and territories of usual residence, 2011, 2021 and 2031
	2011 (no.)	2021 (no.)	2031 (high series) (no.)	2031 (high series) Growth rate (b)(%)	2031 (medium series) (no.)	2031 (medium series) Growth rate (b)(%)	2031 (low series) (no.)	2031 (low series) Growth rate (b)(%)
NSW	270,361	339,710	409,379	1.9	404,365	1.8	401,765	1.7
Vic.	65,923	78,696	97,696	2.2	96,608	2.1	96,010	2.0
Qld	224,501	273,119	346,087	2.4	341,705	2.3	339,574	2.2
SA	43,460	52,069	61,480	1.7	60,776	1.6	60,391	1.5
WA	101,074	120,006	145,114	1.9	143,248	1.8	142,375	1.7
Tas.	27,839	33,857	39,026	1.4	38,605	1.3	38,359	1.3
NT	64,579	76,487	82,535	0.8	81,597	0.6	81,154	0.6
ACT	8,138	9,525	12,053	2.4	11,913	2.3	11,846	2.2
Aust.(c)	806,090	983,709	1,193,646	2.0	1,179,088	1.8	1,171,741	1.8

Estimates and projections based on the 2021 Census.
Average annual growth rate for the period 2021 to 2031.
Includes all states and territories.

Changing state/territory share

New South Wales is projected to continue to have the largest share of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population, however, its population is projected to decrease slightly from 34.5% in 2021 to 34.3% in 2031. The share in:

Queensland is projected to increase from 27.8% in 2021 to 29.0% in 2031
Victoria is projected to increase from 8.0% in 2021 to 8.2% in 2031
the Northern Territory is projected to decline, from 7.8% in 2021 to 6.9% in 2031.

The distribution amongst the remaining states and territories is projected to remain largely unchanged over the projection period.

Projected distribution of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population(a)(b) by states and territories of usual residence, 2021 and 2031
	2021(%)	2031 (high series)(%)	2031 (medium series)(%)	2031 (low series)(%)
NSW	34.5	34.3	34.3	34.3
Vic.	8.0	8.2	8.2	8.2
Qld	27.8	29.0	29.0	29.0
SA	5.3	5.2	5.2	5.2
WA	12.2	12.2	12.1	12.2
Tas.	3.4	3.3	3.3	3.3
NT	7.8	6.9	6.9	6.9
ACT	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
Aust.(c)	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Estimates and projections based on the 2021 Census.
Due to rounding, proportions may not add to 100%.
Includes all states and territories.

Remoteness Areas and Indigenous Regions

Of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in 2021:

40.8% (401,700 people) lived in Major Cities of Australia
43.8% (431,200 people) lived in Inner and Outer Regional Australia
the remaining 15.3% (150,900 people) lived in Remote and Very Remote Australia.

By 2031, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in:

Major Cities of Australia is projected to increase to between 499,900 people (low series) and 509,100 people (high series)
Inner and Outer Regional Australia is projected to be 515,900 people (low series) and 525,700 people (high series)
Remote and Very Remote Australia is projected to be 155,900 people (low series) and 158,900 people (high series).

By 2031, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in:

Major Cities of Australia will have an average annual growth rate between 2.2% and 2.4% per year
Inner and Outer Regional Australia will have an annual growth rate between 1.8% and 2.0% per year
Remote and Very Remote Australia will have an average annual growth rate between 0.3% and 0.5% per year.

Estimated and projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population(a) by Remoteness Areas and Australia, 2011 to 2031
Remoteness Areas	2011 (no.)	2021 (no.)	2031 (high series) (no.)	2031 (high series) Growth rate (b)(%)	2031 (medium series) (no.)	2031 (medium series) Growth rate (b)(%)	2031 (low series) (no.)	2031 (low series) Growth rate (b)(%)
Major Cities of Australia	334,817	401,674	509,079	2.4	503,020	2.3	499,904	2.2
Inner and Outer Regional Australia	350,433	431,162	525,717	2.0	519,200	1.9	515,925	1.8
Remote and Very Remote Australia	120,840	150,873	158,850	0.5	156,868	0.4	155,912	0.3
Australia(c)	806,090	983,709	1,193,646	2.0	1,179,088	1.8	1,171,741	1.8

Estimates and projections based on the 2021 Census.
Average annual growth rate for the period 2021 to 2031.
Includes all states and territories.

Population share

Based on all 3 series:

Inner and Outer Regional Australia is projected to continue to have the largest Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population with its share remaining stable at 44.0% in both 2021 and 2031
Major Cities of Australia share is projected to increase from 40.8% in 2021 to 42.7% in 2031
Remote and Very Remote Australia share is projected to decrease from 15.3% in 2021 to 13.3% in 2031.

Indigenous Regions

Estimated and projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population(a) by Indigenous Regions and Australia, 2021 to 2031
Indigenous Regions	2021 (no.)	2031 (high series) (no.)	2031 (high series) Growth rate (b)(%)	2031 (medium series) (no.)	2031 (medium series) Growth rate (b)(%)	2031 (low series) (no.)	2031 (low series) Growth rate (b)(%)
Dubbo	18,633	21,610	1.5	21,340	1.4	21,201	1.3
North-Eastern NSW	31,736	37,306	1.6	36,843	1.5	36,606	1.4
North-Western NSW	9,370	9,739	0.4	9,610	0.3	9,543	0.2
NSW Central and North Coast	116,051	144,556	2.2	142,774	2.1	141,880	2.0
Riverina - Orange	39,389	47,729	1.9	47,137	1.8	46,837	1.7
South-Eastern NSW	21,202	24,805	1.6	24,509	1.5	24,341	1.4
Sydney - Wollongong	103,329	123,634	1.8	122,152	1.7	121,357	1.6
Melbourne	38,217	46,512	2.0	46,017	1.9	45,738	1.8
Victoria exc. Melbourne	40,479	51,184	2.4	50,591	2.3	50,272	2.2
Brisbane	114,561	150,619	2.8	148,902	2.7	147,997	2.6
Cairns - Atherton	34,122	42,443	2.2	41,872	2.1	41,609	2.0
Cape York	10,308	11,298	0.9	11,128	0.8	11,046	0.7
Mount Isa	9,804	11,103	1.3	10,941	1.1	10,861	1.0
Rockhampton	34,458	43,908	2.5	43,330	2.3	43,060	2.3
Toowoomba - Roma	26,510	32,207	2.0	31,769	1.8	31,567	1.8
Torres Strait	6,776	6,896	0.2	6,800	0.0	6,748	0.0
Townsville - Mackay	36,580	47,613	2.7	46,963	2.5	46,686	2.5
Adelaide	38,235	46,502	2.0	45,965	1.9	45,677	1.8
Port Augusta	10,454	11,471	0.9	11,336	0.8	11,264	0.7
Port Lincoln - Ceduna	3,380	3,507	0.4	3,475	0.3	3,450	0.2
Broome	6,784	7,921	1.6	7,804	1.4	7,759	1.4
Geraldton	8,883	9,600	0.8	9,457	0.6	9,391	0.6
Kalgoorlie	7,430	8,023	0.8	7,921	0.6	7,872	0.6
Kununurra	7,058	8,044	1.3	7,937	1.2	7,885	1.1
Perth	52,398	69,303	2.8	68,453	2.7	68,067	2.7
South Hedland	12,051	13,675	1.3	13,506	1.1	13,421	1.1
South-Western WA	19,388	21,723	1.1	21,439	1.0	21,304	0.9
West Kimberley	6,014	6,825	1.3	6,731	1.1	6,676	1.0
Tasmania	33,857	39,026	1.4	38,605	1.3	38,359	1.3
Alice Springs	7,538	7,807	0.4	7,712	0.2	7,669	0.2
Apatula	9,937	10,483	0.5	10,368	0.4	10,310	0.4
Darwin	20,263	23,715	1.6	23,437	1.5	23,306	1.4
Jabiru - Tiwi	12,470	13,472	0.8	13,328	0.7	13,257	0.6
Katherine	11,298	11,078	-0.2	10,954	-0.3	10,898	-0.4
Nhulunbuy	10,863	11,988	1.0	11,850	0.9	11,781	0.8
Tennant Creek	4,118	3,992	-0.3	3,948	-0.4	3,933	-0.5
Australian Capital Territory	9,525	12,053	2.4	11,913	2.3	11,846	2.2
Australia(c)	983,709	1,193,646	2.0	1,179,088	1.8	1,171,741	1.8

Estimate and projections based on the 2021 Census.
Average annual growth rate for the period 2021 to 2031.
Includes all states and territories.

Backcast estimates for the period 2011 to 2020

Backcast estimates included in this release are compiled using the 30 June 2021 estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population as the base population and assumptions on mortality and interstate migration.

A single time series of Aboriginal and Torres Strait islander population estimates for the period 2011 to 2020 has been produced using the following assumptions:

2016 to 2021: Life expectancy at birth is constant at the 2020-2022 level (71.9 years for males and 75.6 years for females at the national level)
2011 to 2016: Life expectancy at birth is constant at the 2015-2017 level (71.5 years for males and 75.4 years for females at the national level)
Net interstate migration assumptions for each of the 2 intercensal periods will be based on levels observed in each respective intercensal period.
Zero net overseas migration occurred across the entire series with no arrivals and departures.

For further information on how to use historical estimates for comparative analysis and reporting, see article Guide to using historical estimates for comparative analysis and reporting.

There were 983,700 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in 2021 based on the 2021 Census.
Backcast estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population was 806,100 in 2011.
Between 2011 and 2021, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population increased by 2.0% per year on average.

Estimates of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians(a) by states and territories of usual residence, at 30 June
	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
NSW	270,361	277,593	284,683	291,599	298,474	305,269	312,240	319,055	325,924	332,778	339,710
Vic.	65,923	67,125	68,433	69,716	70,980	72,240	73,478	74,761	76,099	77,322	78,696
Qld	224,501	230,095	235,540	240,686	245,876	250,978	255,610	260,006	264,574	268,947	273,119
SA	43,460	44,362	45,253	46,153	47,005	47,858	48,754	49,637	50,479	51,266	52,069
WA	101,074	103,072	105,041	107,082	109,071	111,075	113,003	114,872	116,632	118,388	120,006
Tas.	27,839	28,531	29,177	29,808	30,452	31,059	31,622	32,230	32,794	33,330	33,857
NT	64,579	65,926	67,261	68,572	69,824	71,034	72,202	73,335	74,441	75,478	76,487
ACT	8,138	8,256	8,386	8,519	8,652	8,773	8,937	9,078	9,234	9,377	9,525
Aust.(b)	806,090	825,179	843,996	862,361	880,561	898,515	916,078	933,207	950,414	967,123	983,709

Estimates based on the 2021 Census.
Includes all states and territories.

Data downloads

Download all (669.68 KB)

Data cubes

Data files

Table 1: Estimated resident population, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, sex and age groups by states and territories and Australia, 2011 to 2021
Download xlsx [120.55 KB]
Table 2: Estimated resident population, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, sex and age groups by Remoteness Areas and Australia, 2011 to 2021
Download xlsx [71.97 KB]
Table 3: Estimated resident population, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, sex and single year of age by Remoteness Areas of Australia, 2011 to 2021
Download xlsx [115.85 KB]
Table 4: Estimated resident and projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population, medium series, single year of age by states and territories and Australia, 2011 to 2031
Download xlsx [154.9 KB]
Table 5: Estimated resident and projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population aged 18 years and over, medium series, sex by states and territories and Australia, 2011 to 2031
Download xlsx [42.03 KB]
Table 6: Projected resident population, series (high, medium, low), components of change and summary statistics by states and territories and Australia, 2021 to 2031
Download xlsx [150.22 KB]
Table 7: Projected resident population, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, medium series, sex and single year of age by Remoteness Areas of Australia, 2021 to 2031
Download xlsx [113.66 KB]

Data Explorer datasets

Projected resident population, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, sex and age groups by states and territories and Australia, 2021 to 2031
Projected resident population, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, sex and age groups by Remoteness Areas, 2021 to 2031
Projected resident population, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, sex and age groups by Indigenous Regions, 2021 to 2031

For information on Data Explorer and how it works, see the Data explorer user guide.

Acknowledgements

ABS would like to thank Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples for their cooperation and assistance in the collection of data, without whom this analysis would not have been possible.

We would also like to recognise the valuable contribution made by the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Demographic Statistics Expert Advisory Group, who provided technical advice and expertise on assumptions used to produce the 2011 to 2031 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander estimates and projections reported in this release.

Previous catalogue number

This release previously used catalogue number 3238.0.

Methodology

Scope

The scope of the estimates and projections:

includes all people who usually live in Australia (regardless of nationality, citizenship or visa status)
excludes people present for foreign consular or diplomatic reasons.

Geography

The data available includes estimates and projections for:

Australia
States and territories
Remoteness Areas
Indigenous Regions (IREG).

Source

Estimates and projections are based on:

Census of Population and Housing
Post Enumeration Survey (PES)
State and territory registrars of births, deaths and marriages.

Collection method

Data used to derive the estimates and projections are collected from:

Paper and online forms
Administrative data.

Concepts, sources and methods

Descriptions of the underlying concepts and methods used are available in the Method section of Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians methodology.

History of changes

Not applicable to this release.

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APA

Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians

APA

Key statistics

Assumptions

Introduction

Span of estimates and projections

Base population

Estimates

Summary of assumptions

Projections

Summary of projections

Projections series

Which series to use

Fertility and paternity

Indigenous status of parents

Sex ratio at birth

Fertility assumptions

Trends in fertility rates

Children ever born

Total fertility rate

Choice of fertility assumption

Method used to produce fertility assumptions

Regional variations in fertility

Indigenous Regions

Remoteness Areas

Paternity assumptions

Trends in paternity rates

Choice of paternity assumption

Method used to produce paternity assumptions

Regional variations in paternity

Indigenous Regions

Remoteness Areas

Mortality assumptions

Current life expectancy at birth

Trends in life expectancy at birth

Assumed life expectancy at birth

State/territory variations in mortality

Regional variations in mortality

Indigenous Regions

Remoteness Areas

Interstate migration assumption

Trends in interstate migration

Method used to produce interstate migration assumption

Age/sex profile of interstate migration

Indigenous Regions migration

Remoteness Areas migration

Overseas migration assumption

Trends in overseas migration

Unexplained growth assumption

Sensitivity to projection assumptions

Fertility rates

Paternity rates

Life expectancy at birth

National

Population size and change

Natural increase

Population structure

States and territories

Changing state/territory share

Remoteness Areas and Indigenous Regions

Population share

Indigenous Regions

Backcast estimates for the period 2011 to 2020

Data downloads

Data cubes

Table 1: Estimated resident population, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, sex and age groups by states and territories and Australia, 2011 to 2021

Table 2: Estimated resident population, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, sex and age groups by Remoteness Areas and Australia, 2011 to 2021

Table 3: Estimated resident population, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, sex and single year of age by Remoteness Areas of Australia, 2011 to 2021

Table 4: Estimated resident and projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population, medium series, single year of age by states and territories and Australia, 2011 to 2031

Table 5: Estimated resident and projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population aged 18 years and over, medium series, sex by states and territories and Australia, 2011 to 2031

Table 6: Projected resident population, series (high, medium, low), components of change and summary statistics by states and territories and Australia, 2021 to 2031

Table 7: Projected resident population, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, medium series, sex and single year of age by Remoteness Areas of Australia, 2021 to 2031

Data Explorer datasets

Acknowledgements

Previous catalogue number

Methodology

Scope

Geography

Source