Understanding change in counts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians: Census methodology

Latest release
Reference period
2021

Collections

This release includes information from various ABS collections. The collections used and their respective methodologies are available in Table 1.

Table 1. ABS collections and methodologies used in ‘Understanding change in counts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians: Census’
CollectionMethodology
Census of Population and Housing (Census)

2021 Census methodology

Historical Census data

Births, AustraliaBirths, Australia methodology, 2021
Deaths, AustraliaDeaths, Australia methodology, 2021
2021 Census Post Enumeration Survey2021 Census overcount and undercount methodology, 2021

Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander Status in the Census

In the Census, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander status is collected using the Standard Indigenous Question. The Standard Indigenous Question was first introduced in 1996 and has remained unchanged since. The Census is a self-response questionnaire and responses to the Standard Indigenous Question are either made by the person themselves or on behalf of them if someone else is filling in the questionnaire.

The question is based on self-identification and does not include community recognition or acceptance. The section of the release on changing identification in the Census and throughout life explores some of the many personal and external influences that inform a person’s decision to identify as being of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin in the Census.

The Census does not collect information that could explain why a person may have consistently identified in the Census or why their Indigenous status may change.

The ABS has previously released analysis from the 2006-2011-2016 Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset (ACLD) that enables Census users to better understand changes in the counts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in these three Censuses in Identification as an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander person in the Census over time.

Further analysis using longitudinal data to explore change in identification between Censuses, as well as further geographic breakdowns (including Remoteness) is planned. These analyses are expected to be released later in 2023 and early 2024.

Framework for measuring change in Census counts

Changes in counts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people between Censuses are influenced by factors that are either demographic or non-demographic. To determine the amount of change in counts that is demographic or non-demographic, a three-step method is applied.

Step 1: Calculate the difference (intercensal change) in counts between two Censuses:

\(\small{Census \ count \ A* - Census \ count \ B = intercensal \ change \ in \ counts}\)

*Census count A is the most recent time point.

Step 2: Calculate the amount of intercensal change that is demographic:

\(\small{Census \ count \ of \ 0-4 \ year \ olds \ - \ intercensal \ deaths(a) \ + \ net \ migration(b)\ =\ demographic \ change}\)

a. Excludes deaths of persons in the 0-4 year age cohort born in the 2016-2021 intercensal period.

b. Net migration excludes: i) people who did not provide information about their place of usual residence five years ago, and ii) people who moved overseas between 2016 and 2021 as data on people who identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander migrating out of Australia is not available (see understanding data quality). At the National level, only migration to Australia from overseas is included in the calculation of intercensal change that is demographic. Below National level, a net migration figure is used that includes people who moved in and out of a region and people who moved into a region from overseas between Censuses.

Step 3: Calculate the amount of intercensal change that is non-demographic:

\(\small{Intercensal \ change \ in \ counts \ - \ demographic \ change \ = \ non-demographic \ change}\)

Updated methodology for measuring demographic change

The methodology for measuring demographic change has been updated from previous releases of this publication to use Census counts of children aged under five years instead of registered births[1].

While registered births are demographic in nature, including them in the measurement of change masks some of the non-demographic change that occurs between Censuses. Using Census counts of children aged under five years brings more consistency in data sources used in the calculation of demographic change.  

Registered births still provide valuable insight when understanding change over multiple Censuses (using age cohort analysis), and they are used in this context in this release. 

Table 2 shows the differences in the calculation of demographic and non-demographic change in Census counts when using Census count children aged under five years in place of registered births for 2016-2011 and 2016-2021.

Table 2. Differences in demographic and non-demographic change in Census counts by methodology, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander persons, 2006-2021
  New methodologyOld methodology
  2006-20112011-20162016-20212006-20112011-20162016-2021
Intercensal changeno.93,340100,803163,55793,340100,803163,557
Registered birthsno.......76,37891,608107,272
Census count children aged 0-4 yearsno.67,41673,26585,941......
Deaths(a)no.11,54413,77717,71312,21814,30518,284
Overseas migration(b)no.1,3751,9692,8581,3751,9692,858
Total demographic changeno.57,24761,45771,08665,53579,27291,846
 %61.361.043.570.278.656.2
Total non-demographic changeno.36,09339,34692,47127,80721,53171,711
 %38.739.056.529.821.443.8

Data is based on place of usual residence. Excludes overseas visitors.
a. The updated methodology includes only registered deaths of children born before the previous Census.
b. People whose place of usual residence 5 years prior to Census night was overseas. Excludes people who moved overseas between Censuses as data on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people migrating out of Australia is not available.
.. not applicable.
Please note that there are small random adjustments made to all cell values to protect the confidentiality of data. These adjustments may cause the sum of rows or columns to differ by small amounts from table totals.
Source: Census of Population and Housing, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021, ABS Birth Registrations, ABS Deaths Registrations, Census of Population and Housing: Understanding the Increase in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Counts, 2006-2011 and Census of Population and Housing: Understanding the Increase in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Counts, 2016.

Data use considerations

  1. Data presented in this release using the updated methodology is not comparable with previous releases.
  2. The method for understanding change in Census counts does not factor in Census undercount or overcount. Census undercount and overcount are factored into Australia’s official population estimates - Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2006 - 2031 (population projections) and Estimates of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, June 2021 (ERP). This is particularly important as the Census is known to undercount children aged under 5 years as measured by the Post Enumeration Survey (PES).
  3. Data from death registrations may underestimate the level of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths (see Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander status in birth and death registrations – data use considerations).
  4. Overseas migration data is derived from the Census data item Place of Usual Residence 5 years ago (PUR5P). The calculation of overseas migration figures excludes migration from Australia to overseas as this information is not collected in PUR5P.
  5. Internal migration data excludes 55,436 people who identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander in the Census and did not answer the questions used to derive PUR5P (see Internal migration).
  6. No reliance should be placed on small cells as they are impacted by random adjustment, respondent and processing errors.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander families

Understanding couple families in the Census

To determine whether one or both partners in a couple identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander in the Census, three Census data items are used:

These three data items are used to form the following categories:

  1. Couple family, both partners are of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin
  2. Couple family, one male parent/guardian is of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin (Indigenous and non-Indigenous partnership couples)
  3. Couple family, one female parent/guardian is of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin (Indigenous and non-Indigenous partnership couples)

Information about the Indigenous status of couple families is only available for couples where both partners were at home on Census night. It is therefore likely that the information in this release underestimates the number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander couple families.

Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander status of children

A parent/guardian usually completes the Census form on behalf of a child. This can mean that a child’s Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander status can change between Censuses depending on factors such as:

  • Which parent/guardian filled out the Census form, and whether this has changed between Censuses (e.g., if there are changes in family or household dynamics)
  • How the parent/guardian identifies themselves in the Census

A person’s Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander status can also change between Censuses if/when they fill out the Census form on their own behalf, such as when they first leave the parental home.

It is not possible to determine which parent/guardian completed the Census form or whether they provided information about the Indigenous status of the child/ren in the household, or if the child/ren responded to the Standard Indigenous Question themselves.

In 2021:

  • children were more likely to identify (or be identified) as being Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin if both parents/guardians identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander (99.0%), than if only one parent identified (86.8%).
  • In couples where one parent identified as being Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin, children were more likely to identify (or be identified) as being of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander if a female parent/guardian identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander (89.7%) than if a male parent/guardian identified (83.8%).
Table 3. Indigenous status of children aged 0-14 years with an Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander parent, by family composition, 2021
 Couple family with children (%)Lone parent family (%)Total (%)
ABORIGINAL AND/OR TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER CHILD   
One parent/guardian of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin(a)86.896.590.8
Male parent/guardian is of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin83.894.085.1
Female parent is of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin89.796.793.7
Both parents/guardians of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin99.0..99.0
Total89.596.592.0
NON-INDIGENOUS CHILD(b)   
One parent/guardian of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin(a)13.23.59.2
Male parent is of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin16.26.014.9
Female parent is of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin10.33.26.3
Both parents/guardians of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin1.0..1.0
Total10.53.58.0
Total number of children aged 0-14 years with an Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander parent/guardian134,35573,342207,700

Data is based on place of usual residence. Excludes overseas visitors.a. Includes lone parents.b. Includes Indigenous status not stated.

.. not applicable

Please note that there are small random adjustments made to all cell values to protect the confidentiality of data. These adjustments may cause the sum of rows or columns to differ by small amounts from table totals.

Source: Census of Population and Housing, 2021.

Understanding data quality

Net undercount and overcount in the Census

Information about the methodology of the 2021 Census overcount and undercount as measured by the PES is available in 2021 Census overcount and undercount methodology, 2021.

Information on state and territory overcount and undercount for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians is reported in Estimates of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, June 2021 (Preliminary). To generate Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander overcount and undercount results for the states and territories, the Empirical Bayes Estimation method is applied to the raw Post Enumeration Survey (PES estimates).

The method smooths the raw PES estimate of the net undercount based on the Census characteristics of the region (specifically the proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander persons and the level of Census non-response in the region). The aim of smoothing is to provide stable estimates with lower standard errors. 

For more information, see Estimates of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians methodology, June 2021 and Estimating the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander resident population.

Data on registered births and deaths

 Births and deaths data used in this release have some limitations:

  1. Birth and deaths information may underestimate the level of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander births and deaths in Australia. Lags in registrations may also affect reliability of measures of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander births and deaths.
  2. Some of the registered births and deaths may be for persons whose Indigenous status was not provided or could not be determined in the Census.
  3. Births and deaths data is only available by year and month of occurrence. It is not possible to extract births and deaths data to match Census dates.
  4. No reliance should be placed on small cells as they are impacted by random adjustment, respondent and processing errors.

Birth registrations

A child is recorded as being of Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander origin if either the mother or father identifies as being of Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander origin on the birth registration form.

Therefore, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander births may be attributed to Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander:

  • mothers, irrespective of whether or not the father identified as being of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin.
  • fathers, irrespective of whether or not the mother identified as being of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin.

Death registrations

Registration of deaths is the responsibility of the state and territory Registry of Births Deaths and Marriages (RBDM). Information about the deceased is acquired from the Death Registration Form (DRF). All states and territories use information from the DRF to identify an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander death. In addition, some states and territories also use the Medical Certificate of Cause of Death (MCCD) to identify an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander death. In 2007, the MCCD was introduced in South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory. The Queensland RBDM introduced the MCCD in 2015. This resulted in a noticeable decrease in the number of deaths for which the Indigenous status was 'not stated' and an increase in the number of deaths identified as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander in Queensland. If the Indigenous status reported in the DRF does not agree with that in the MCCD, an identification from either source that the deceased was an Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander is given preference over non-Indigenous.

Whilst data is provided to the ABS for Indigenous status (99.4% of all deaths registered in 2021), it may underestimate the level of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths and mortality in Australia.

For more information about Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander status in birth and death registrations, see: Births, Australia methodology, 2021 and Deaths, Australia methodology, 2021.

Internal migration

Internal migration information is available from the Census data item Place of Usual Residence 5 years ago (PUR5P). PUR5P is derived from two Census questions:

  • Where does the person usually live?
  • Where did the person usually live five years ago (at 10 August 2016)?

In 2021, 7.6% or 55,436 people who identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander in the Census did not provide information about their place of usual residence five years ago because they did not answer the questions used to derive PUR5P. These people are coded to ‘not stated’ and are excluded from the internal migration information used in this release. Excluding people coded to ‘not stated’ in PUR5P is consistent with previous editions of this release.

Table 4 shows the impact of excluding and including people coded to ‘not stated’ in PUR5P on calculations of internal migration. Including people coded to ‘not stated’ changes the count of people who moved into a state or territory because they are included in the 2021 Census count for the state or territory they were counted in for 2021. Consequently, people coded to ‘not stated’ also impact the calculation of change due to interstate migration.

Table 4. Place of usual residence 5 years ago by state/territory, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander persons, 2021
Place of usual residence 5 years ago, excluding not stated PUR5P    
State/TerritoryOverseas migrationMoved into state/territoryMoved out of state/territoryChange due to interstate migration
New South Wales9366,77210,979-4,207
Victoria3364,2903,725565
Queensland88811,1867,1764,010
South Australia1391,9361,86076
Western Australia3222,6802,358322
Tasmania881,1701,254-84
Northern Territory792,3123,170-858
Australian Capital Territory761,6041,419185
Place of usual residence 5 years ago, including not stated PUR5P    
New South Wales93611,06210,97983
Victoria3365,5463,7251,821
Queensland88815,8567,1768,680
South Australia1392,6431,860783
Western Australia3224,1992,3581,841
Tasmania881,5281,254274
Northern Territory792.9333,170-237
Australian Capital Territory761,7141,419295

Data is based on place of usual residence. Excludes overseas visitors. Includes Other Territories.Please note that there are small random adjustments made to all cell values to protect the confidentiality of data. These adjustments may cause the sum of rows or columns to differ by small amounts from table totals.Source: Census of Population and Housing, 2021.

Internal migration - Indigenous Regions

The base area that is output for PUR5P is Statistical area level 2 (SA2). These areas can be aggregated to form higher Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) areas. To extract information about PUR5P for Indigenous Regions (IREGs), a correspondence for 2021 SA2 to 2021 IREGs was used. 

Correspondences at the SA2 level are not as accurate as correspondences at the meshblock level. Meshblock level correspondences are used in related releases such as Census of Population and Housing - Counts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2021.

Most SA2s mapped directly to an IREG, but some mapped across two IREGs. For example, the SA2 of Young Surrounds spanned across the IREGs of Riverina (0.69) and South-Eastern NSW (0.31). In this scenario, Young Surrounds was mapped to the IREG where the greatest proportion of the SA2 was – Riverina. The effect of split SA2s on the data is minimal.

Table 5 provides a summary of the SA2s that corresponded to two IREGs and were mapped to the IREG with the greater ratio. The full correspondence is available in the downloads section and more information about correspondences is available in Correspondences.

Table 5. SA2s and IREGs impacted by the PUR5P 2021 SA2 to 2021 IREG correspondence
State/territory2021 SA22021 IREGRatio
New South WalesYoung SurroundsRiverina0.69
  South-Eastern NSW0.31
QueenslandNorthern HighlandsTownsville Mackay0.73
  Mount Isa0.27
 Far Central WestMount Isa0.85
  Toowoomba0.15
Western AustraliaExmouthSouth Headland0.66
  Geraldton0.34
 MeekatharraGeraldton0.83
  Kalgoorlie0.17
Northern TerritoryAlligatorDarwin0.58
  Jabiru - Tiwi0.42
 GulfKatherine0.83
  Nhulunbuy0.17

Overseas migration

The overseas migration information in this release does not capture net overseas migration.

This release uses overseas migration information from the Census data item Place of Usual Residence 5 years ago (PUR5P). Overseas migration information from this data item relates to people who lived overseas 5 years ago and returned to Australia between Censuses. It does not capture people who migrated overseas from Australia between Censuses and who were living overseas at the time of the 2021 Census.

Administrative data sources of overseas migration (arrival and departure information from the Department of Home Affairs) do not collect the Indigenous status of persons arriving to or departing from Australia. It is therefore not possible to compare Census migration information to administrative records to explore possible differences between the two.

ABS Geography used in this release

The Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) provides a framework of statistical areas to enable the release of statistics that are comparable and spatially integrated.

The tables in this release are presented by the following ASGS ABS Structures:

Main structure

  • State and Territory

Indigenous structure

  • 2021 Indigenous Regions (IREG)

Local Government Areas

  • 2021 Local Government Areas (LGA)

Data from the 2016 Census presented for IREGs and LGAs is based on 2021 IREG and LGA boundaries to allow for direct comparisons. As a result, the 2016 Census data in this release may differ to previously published 2016 Census data. More information about correspondences is available in Correspondences.

Glossary

Table 6. Glossary for ‘Understanding change in counts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians: Census’
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander couple familyA couple where one or both partners identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander.
CoupleTwo people who were present in the same dwelling on Census night who have a relationship of husband, wife, or partner.
Demographic changeChange in Census counts that can be explained by factors of population change – births, deaths and migration.
Family

In the Census, a family consists of two or more people who usually live in a household where:

  • at least one of these people was home on Census Night
  • one person is at least 15 years of age, and
  • they are related (including de facto, step, fostered and adopted relatives).

Two family members form a family nucleus in these cases:

  • a couple (married or de facto)
  • a lone parent and a child
  • or other pairs (e.g. grandparent and grandchild, siblings).

For more information see: Understanding Family composition and Grandparent families.

Gross coverage errorThe difference between the PES population estimate and the number of unique persons from which Census received a response.
Gross overcountAn estimate of the excess count of persons (according to PES) either from being counted on more than one Census form or from being counted in error (e.g., where a person was overseas on Census night and therefore should not have been counted but was included on a Census form at their usual residence).
Gross undercount

An estimate of the number of people who should have been counted in the Census (according to PES) but were missed because:

  • they were not included on a completed Census form at their usual residence or another dwelling
  • their dwelling was not known to Census (e.g., it was not included on the ABS Address Register or was not located by a Census field officer)
  • their dwelling was mistakenly deemed unoccupied on Census night.
Indigenous and non-Indigenous partnership coupleA couple where one partner identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander and the other partner identified as non-Indigenous or did not respond to the Standard Indigenous Question.
IntercensalThe time between two Census periods.
Natural increaseThe net effect of intercensal births minus intercensal deaths.
Net undercountThe difference between the estimate of how many people should have been counted in the Census as determined through the Post Enumeration Survey (PES) and the actual Census count (including imputed persons).
Non-demographic changeChange in Census counts that cannot be explained by factors of population change.

Data definitions

Table 7. Data definitions used in ‘Understanding change in counts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians: Census’
MeasurementDownloads tableCollectionData items usedInclusions/Exclusions
National Census count1Census 1971-2021
  • Indigenous status (INGP)
  • Australia – Place of Usual Residence
  • All persons.
  • Denominator includes Other Territories.
Change in Census counts by sex, state/territory and age group2Census 2016-2021
  • Indigenous status (INGP)
  • Main Statistical Area Structure (Main ASGS) – Place of Usual Residence
  • Age in five year group (AGE5P)
  • Sex (SEXP)
  • All persons.
  • Denominator includes Other Territories.
  • 2016 age groups have been adjusted up 5 years.
  • Contribution to increase in Census counts calculated as a proportion to total 2016-2021 intercensal change in counts.
Change in Census counts and demographic and non-demographic factors of change3-6Census 2016-2021
  • Indigenous status (INGP)
  • Main Statistical Area Structure (Main ASGS) – Place of Usual Residence
  • Indigenous Regions (IREG)
  • Local Government Areas (LGA)
  • Deaths, Australia
  • Usual address five years ago indicator (UAI5P)
  • Place of usual residence five years ago (PUR5P)
  • Age in five year group (AGE5P)
  • All persons.
  • Denominator includes Other Territories.
  • Denominator for IREGs includes migratory-offshore-shipping and no usual address.
  • Natural increase is the difference between the Census count of 0-4 year olds and registered deaths.
  • Migration – excludes PUR5P not stated.
  • Overseas migration – People whose place of usual residence in 2016 was overseas. Excludes people who moved overseas as data on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people migrating out of Australia is not available.
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander couple families7Census 1996-2021
  • Indigenous status (INGP)
  • Main Statistical Area Structure (Main ASGS) – Place of Enumeration
  • Relationship in household (RLHP)
  • Sex (SEXP)
  • All persons/couples who are in a registered marriage or de facto relationship. Excludes couples in which one partner was absent on Census night.
  • Denominator includes Other Territories.
  • Indigenous and non-Indigenous partnership couples – couples with one Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander partner and one non-Indigenous partner.

Footnotes

[1] Using registered births for children aged under five years instead of Census counts meant that the calculation of demographic change in previous releases also needed to include registered deaths of children aged under five years who were born after the previous Census.

Data downloads

Correspondence 2021 SA2 to 2021 IREG

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