Introduction
Modelled estimates for Primary Health Networks (PHNs) and state/territory have been produced based on data from the 2020–2022 National Study of Mental Health and Wellbeing, 2021 Census of Population and Housing, the Estimated Resident Population (ERP) as at 30 June 2022, and aggregated administrative data. These include estimates of the number of people with 12-month mental disorders, as well as selected other mental health-related topics.
The modelled estimates can be interpreted as the expected value for a typical area in Australia with the same characteristics. For any particular modelled mental health characteristic (e.g. people with a 12-month mental disorder), there will be differences between the modelled estimate and the true number of people with that characteristic not accounted for in the measure of accuracy. One explanation for this is that significant local information about particular areas exists, but has not been included in the model, as it is not available to the ABS. It is important to consider local area knowledge when interpreting the modelled estimates for that region.
Used in conjunction with an understanding of local area characteristics and their reliability limitations, modelled estimates can assist in making decisions on issues such as the requirement for services.
Population groups
The modelled estimates are for persons aged 16–85 years who were usual residents of private dwellings, for all areas of Australia excluding Other Territories. This differs from the scope of the NSMHW, which also excluded Very Remote areas of Australia and discrete Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities. Please refer to the ‘In scope population’ worksheet within each Data download file in the Mental health, Primary Health Networks - modelled estimates section of National Study of Mental Health and Wellbeing for further information about the population in scope of the NSMHW in each PHN and state/territory.
Geography
Modelled estimates have been produced at the PHN and state/territory level for all jurisdictions, excluding Other Territories.
The ABS Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS), Edition 3 was used as the basis for combining data sources. State/territory boundaries for outputs are as defined within the main structure of ASGS. PHN regions are not defined or maintained within the ASGS. PHNs for outputs are an approximation of PHN regions, as defined by an ASGS Mesh Block to PHN allocation file provided by the Department of Health and Aged Care. The 2023 edition of PHN regions has been used.
Methodology
To produce accurate and detailed estimates of mental health topics at the PHN and state/territory level, models are created using detailed NSMHW data, in conjunction with Census data, administrative data, and ERP data to produce modelled estimates for those areas. The modelling method assumes that the relationships observed at the higher geographic level (as available from the NSMHW) between the characteristics of interest (e.g. whether a person has a 12-month mental disorder) and other known characteristics also hold at the smaller area level.
A mixed (or composite) estimate comprised of modelled and NSMHW survey data is then produced for each PHN and state/territory. A mixed (or composite) estimate gives results for each area that reflect the best trade-off between the accuracy of the direct survey data and the error associated with the modelled estimate.
Reliability of modelled estimates
The errors associated with the modelled estimates fall into four categories. Sampling error, non-sampling error, modelling error, and prediction error. The relative root mean squared error (RRMSE) provides an indication of the deviation of the modelled estimate from the true population value. The RRMSE is primarily a measure of prediction error, but in its calculation, it also inherits some aspects of modelling and sampling error.
Modelling assumes that the statistical relationships observed between explanatory characteristics and the characteristic of interest for the sampled population are not significantly different for populations not included in the survey. This is relevant for the modelled estimates presented in this publication, where the scope includes Very Remote areas of Australia and discrete Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities that were not included in the NSMHW sample. Modelled relationships may be inadequate for describing the portion of a PHN’s population in Very Remote areas and discrete Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, and/or other parts of PHNs that don’t follow the typical associations between explanatory characteristics and the characteristic of interest. The percentage of the population in each PHN and state/territory which is in scope of the NSMHW is provided in the ‘In scope population’ worksheet within each data download file. Users should consider these proportions when assessing the suitability of modelled estimates for their purposes.
Confidentiality
Modelled estimates have been confidentialised to ensure they meet ABS requirements for confidentiality.
Additional information
The sum of modelled estimates for PHNs may not align with the modelled estimates for states/territories because models for separate geographies are applied independently and some PHNs cross state/territory boundaries. Any differences between the sum of component modelled estimates and the equivalent published total modelled estimate will be small.
Users should note that modelled state/territory data will differ from direct survey estimates from the NSMHW. The NSMHW sample was designed to provide reliable national-level direct survey estimates and allowed for the production of limited direct survey estimates for states and territories. In addition to providing estimates for PHNs, modelling allows for more detailed disaggregations at the state/territory level (e.g. 10-year age groups by sex) than is possible directly from the NSMHW sample. Users should consider their particular data needs when using state/territory modelled or direct survey estimates.
Modelled estimates include total 'Population' counts for each PHN and state/territory, created for the production and analysis of PHN and state/territory data; these are not official ABS population statistics.
Detailed explanatory notes are available for the modelled estimates. These can be obtained on request from mental.health.statistics@abs.gov.au.