Economic downturn in an historical context

Released
2/09/2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on the global economy and Australia was not immune from its effects. The Australian economy fell 7.0% in the June quarter 2020, the largest fall in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since quarterly measurement began in 1959. June quarter 1974 previously held the record fall of 2.0%.

Figure 1 - Quarterly growth in Gross Domestic Product, seasonally adjusted chain volume measures

Quarterly growth in Gross Domestic Product, seasonally adjusted chain volume measures
This image uses a column graph to plot real Gross Domestic Product from June 1960 to June 2020. Additionally, vertical grey bars represent those quarters affected by falling real GDP during this time and which include: December 1960 June 1961 September 1961 June 1963 March 1964 September 1965 March 1966 June 1967 March 1968 March 1969 September 1970 December 1971 March 1972 September 1972 June 1974 September 1975 December 1975 March 1977 September 1977 December 1977 June 1979 December 1981 March 1982 September 1982 December 1982 March 1983 June 1983 December 1985 June 1986 December 1989 September 1990 March 1991 June 1991 December 2000 December 2008 March 2011 March 2020 June 2020

Graph and data - quarterly growth in Gross Domestic Product

Associated with the economic downturn were record falls across many key national accounts aggregates, including hours worked and compensation of employees.

Figure 2 - National accounts hours worked and compensation of employees, seasonally adjusted

National accounts hours worked and compensation of employees
This image uses a combined column and line graph to plot the impact of hours worked and compensation to employees on GDP from December 1978 to June 2020. Additionally, vertical grey bars represent those quarters affected by falling real GDP during this time and which include: June 1979 December 1981 March 1982 September 1982 December 1982 March 1983 June 1983 December 1985 June 1986 December 1989 September 1990 March 1991 June 1991 December 2000 December 2008 March 2011 March 2020 June 2020

Graph and data - national accounts hours worked and compensation of employees

The fall in hours worked of 9.8% was unprecedented. The fall in Compensation of employees (-2.5%), although a record fall, was less pronounced due to the JobKeeper program. $31.0 billion in payments were made via the JobKeeper program this quarter, an amount that exceeds the cumulative sum of all previous employment subsidies.

The fall in the June quarter was driven by Private demand, which detracted 7.9 percentage points from GDP. The record fall in household consumption (-12.1%), accounted for over 95% of the fall in GDP.

Figure 3 - Public and private demand contributions to quarterly growth in GDP, seasonally adjusted chain volume measures

Public and private demand contributions to quarterly growth in GDP, seasonally adjusted chain volume measures
This image uses a stacked column graph to plot the impact of public demand, private demand and net exports on GDP from September 1998 to June 2020. Additionally, vertical grey bars represent those quarters affected by falling real GDP during this time and which include: December 2000 March 2011 March 2020 June 2020

Graph and data - public and private demand contributions to quarterly growth in GDP

This record fall in household consumption coupled with government support payments to households drove a rise in the household income to saving ratio to 19.8%, the highest since June 1974.

Figure 4 - Household saving, seasonally adjusted

Household saving
This image uses a combined column and line graph to plot the impact of household saving and the volume of household final consumption expenditure on GDP from June 1960 to June 2020. Additionally, vertical grey bars represent those quarters affected by falling real GDP during this time and which include: December 1960 June 1961 September 1961 June 1963 March 1964 September 1965 March 1966 June 1967 March 1968 March 1969 September 1970 December 1971 March 1972 September 1972 June 1974 September 1975 December 1975 March 1977 September 1977 December 1977 June 1979 December 1981 March 1982 September 1982 December 1982 March 1983 June 1983 December 1985 June 1986 December 1989 September 1990 March 1991 June 1991 December 2000 December 2008 March 2011 March 2020 June 2020

Graph and data - household saving

All levels of government responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with support payments that assisted businesses to carry out economic activity, the largest of which were the JobKeeper and Boosting Cash Flow for Employers policies. These support payments rose to record levels, reaching $55.5 billion in the June quarter. Social assistance benefits in cash increased $14.4 billion, reflecting additional COVID-19 support payments. As a result of increased support, General Government net saving was -$82.6 billion, the largest negative outcome on record.

Back to top of the page