Population projections (based on assumptions of fertility, mortality and migration) for Australia, states and territories and capital cities
These projections are not predictions or forecasts. They are an assessment of what would happen to Australia's population if assumed levels of the components of population change (births, deaths and migration) were to occur between 2018 and 2066.
Users should assess the available assumptions and choose the combination that best suits their needs.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics uses the cohort-component method for producing population projections. In this method, assumptions made about future levels of fertility, mortality, overseas migration and internal migration are applied to a base population (applied by sex and single year of age) to obtain a projected population for the following year. The assumptions are then applied to this new (projected) population to obtain a projected population for the next year. This process is repeated until the end of the projection period is reached.
From a base of 30 June 2017, the projections span the period 30 June 2018 to 30 June 2066 for Australia, states, territories, capital cities and rest of state. Estimated resident population for 30 June 2017 for all above mentioned geographies have also been included in the data.
The base population is the preliminary estimated resident population at 30 June 2017, which takes into account the 2016 Census of Population and Housing.
Assumptions have been formulated on the basis of demographic trends over the past decade and longer, both in Australia and overseas, in conjunction with consultation with experts at the national and state/territory level. They do not specifically attempt to allow for non-demographic factors (such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars, epidemics or significant health treatment improvements) which may affect future demographic behaviour or outcomes.
As future levels of fertility, mortality, overseas migration and internal migration are unpredictable, two or more assumptions have been made for each component and projections have been produced for all combinations of the assumptions. These are intended to illustrate a range of possible future outcomes, although there can be no certainty that any particular outcome will be realised, or that future outcomes will necessarily fall within these ranges.
The table below shows how recent demographic trends (an average of the last three years) relate to the proposed assumptions. The projections will show a smooth transition from the most recently observed data to the long-range assumption. This 'phase-in' period is different for each component assumption and so the table also shows the year that each assumption will be phased in by.
| Recent observed average | Low assumption | Medium assumption | High Assumption | Phased in by | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total fertility rate(a) | 1.80 | 1.65 | 1.80 | 1.95 | 2026-27 |
| Male life expectancy at birth(a) | 80.4 | 83.0 | 83.0 | 87.7 | 2065-66 |
| Female life expectancy at birth(a) | 84.6 | 86.0 | 86.0 | 89.2 | 2065-66 |
| Net overseas migration(b) | 217,600 | 175,000 | 225,000 | 275,000 | 2026-27 |
| Net interstate migration | . . | small flows | medium flows | large flows | 2026-27 |
. . not applicable
a. Recent observed average is for calendar years 2014-2016.
b. Recent observed average is for financial years 2015-2017.
The above assumptions can be combined to create 54 sets of population projections. Three series have been selected from these to provide a range, although not the full range, of projections for analysis and discussion. These series are referred to as series high, medium and low.
For some states, the high to low series do not depict the highest or lowest population outcomes. Where applicable, other series have been included in commentary.
The inclusion of a zero net overseas migration assumption increases the total number of available projections to 72 series. These extra series (series 55 to 72) do not feature in the commentary and analysis but are included in the ABS.Stat datasets attached to this publication.
Future uncertainty, along with the subjective nature of assessing current trends, means that using a range of possible outcomes rather than a single projection series give a more realistic view of the possible future size, distribution and age structure of Australia's population.
Different series, constructed from varying combinations of assumptions, are appropriate for different time horizons (shorter or longer term), the geographic region(s) considered, and any volatility in the components. Historically, mortality and fertility have been consistent with slow-moving trends in the data. The projections reflect this. Observed levels of overseas and interstate migration have been far more volatile. This volatility can be expected to continue due to future government policies and decision making, and economic, social and other influences in Australia and overseas.
Future trends in fertility are an important determinant of Australia's future population size, structure and growth. To produce population projections using the cohort-component method, assumptions of age-specific fertility rates and the sex ratio at birth are required for each year of the projection period.
Using data from the past 20 years, three long-term assumptions have been made regarding Australia's future total fertility rate (TFR): higher fertility (a TFR of 1.95 babies per woman), medium fertility (1.8) and lower fertility (1.65). Under all three assumptions, the trend towards older ages of mothers is assumed to continue to 2027, but at a slower rate than seen historically, and remain constant thereafter. For all years, the sex ratio at birth is assumed to be 105.5 male births per 100 female births.
In 1961, at the height of the 'baby boom', Australia's TFR peaked at 3.5 babies per woman. Since then fertility has declined, falling sharply during the early 1960s, before levelling out at around 2.9 babies per woman in the years 1966–1971. The TFR was last at replacement level (2.1) in 1975, and continued to fall thereafter. Fertility stabilised somewhat during the 1980s, before resuming a more gradual decline during the 1990s. The TFR reached a low of 1.7 babies per woman in 2001, increased again to 2.0, before declining to 1.8 in 2016.
The three assumptions for Australia's future fertility levels are made with regard to recent trends in the TFR, especially those of the past 20 years.
The higher fertility scenario assumes that Australia's TFR will reach 1.95 babies per woman by 2027 and remain constant thereafter. This reflects levels of fertility recorded since 1977 of between 1.7 and 2.0 babies per woman, acknowledging the possibility that the TFR could increase more, especially in the short-term.
The medium scenario assumes a continuation of the current TFR, with the TFR to remain steady at 1.8 to 2027 and remaining constant thereafter.
Under the lower fertility assumption the TFR declines to 1.65 babies per woman by 2031 and remaining constant thereafter. Fertility rates have reached low levels in many European countries, and higher-income Asian countries such as Singapore, Japan and the Republic of Korea.
| Observed | Assumption - Higher | Assumption - Medium | Assumption - Lower | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 1.78 | |||
| 2000 | 1.78 | |||
| 2001 | 1.75 | |||
| 2002 | 1.76 | |||
| 2003 | 1.76 | |||
| 2004 | 1.76 | |||
| 2005 | 1.85 | |||
| 2006 | 1.90 | |||
| 2007 | 2.00 | |||
| 2008 | 2.00 | |||
| 2009 | 1.97 | |||
| 2010 | 1.94 | |||
| 2011 | 1.92 | |||
| 2012 | 1.95 | |||
| 2013 | 1.87 | |||
| 2014 | 1.86 | |||
| 2015 | 1.80 | |||
| 2016 | 1.79 | 1.79 | 1.79 | 1.79 |
| 2017 | 1.81 | 1.80 | 1.79 | |
| 2018 | 1.82 | 1.80 | 1.77 | |
| 2019 | 1.84 | 1.80 | 1.76 | |
| 2020 | 1.85 | 1.80 | 1.75 | |
| 2021 | 1.87 | 1.80 | 1.73 | |
| 2022 | 1.88 | 1.80 | 1.72 | |
| 2023 | 1.89 | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| 2024 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.69 | |
| 2025 | 1.92 | 1.80 | 1.68 | |
| 2026 | 1.94 | 1.80 | 1.66 | |
| 2027 | 1.95 | 1.80 | 1.65 |
Total fertility rate(a)(b), observed and assumed
["","Observed","Assumption - Higher","Assumption - Medium","Assumption - Lower"]
[["1999","2000","2001","2002","2003","2004","2005","2006","2007","2008","2009","2010","2011","2012","2013","2014","2015","2016","2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027"],[[1.782],[1.776],[1.752],[1.764],[1.76],[1.7609999999999999],[1.853],[1.8979999999999999],[2],[1.996],[1.9670000000000001],[1.9370000000000001],[1.9239999999999999],[1.946],[1.8740000000000001],[1.859],[1.8],[1.794],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null]],[[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[1.794],[1.8080000000000001],[1.8220000000000001],[1.8360000000000001],[1.851],[1.865],[1.879],[1.893],[1.907],[1.9219999999999999],[1.9359999999999999],[1.95]],[[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[1.794],[1.8],[1.8],[1.8],[1.8],[1.8],[1.8],[1.8],[1.8],[1.8],[1.8],[1.8]],[[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[1.794],[1.786],[1.772],[1.7589999999999999],[1.7450000000000001],[1.732],[1.718],[1.704],[1.6910000000000001],[1.677],[1.6639999999999999],[1.6499999999999999]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"0.1","axis_min":"1.6","axis_max":"2.1","axis_title":"rate","precision":"2","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]The table below shows the TFRs for all states and territories and Australia from 2007 to 2016. Some states have consistently been higher or lower than the national rate, while others have fluctuated over the past 20 years. In recent years, TFRs for Victoria, South Australia and the ACT have been lower than rates for Australia as a whole, while TFRs for the remaining states and territories, particularly Tasmania and the Northern Territory, have been higher.
| Year ending 31 December | NSW | Vic. | Qld | SA | WA | Tas. | NT | ACT | Aust. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 2.02 | 1.89 | 2.11 | 1.93 | 2.04 | 2.21 | 2.25 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
| 2008 | 2.02 | 1.87 | 2.11 | 1.94 | 2.02 | 2.24 | 2.19 | 1.72 | 2.00 |
| 2009 | 1.99 | 1.85 | 2.07 | 1.90 | 1.98 | 2.20 | 2.17 | 1.75 | 1.97 |
| 2010 | 1.98 | 1.82 | 2.04 | 1.88 | 1.93 | 2.08 | 2.11 | 1.76 | 1.94 |
| 2011 | 1.96 | 1.81 | 2.00 | 1.90 | 1.92 | 2.14 | 2.13 | 1.78 | 1.92 |
| 2012 | 1.98 | 1.86 | 2.02 | 1.90 | 1.94 | 2.04 | 2.13 | 1.78 | 1.95 |
| 2013 | 1.87 | 1.81 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 1.89 | 2.01 | 2.05 | 1.77 | 1.87 |
| 2014 | 1.85 | 1.79 | 1.93 | 1.86 | 1.90 | 1.94 | 2.01 | 1.76 | 1.86 |
| 2015 | 1.81 | 1.73 | 1.84 | 1.77 | 1.87 | 1.88 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 1.80 |
| 2016 | 1.80 | 1.71 | 1.84 | 1.75 | 1.90 | 1.93 | 1.96 | 1.73 | 1.79 |
a. Calendar year rates calculated using births by occurrence, adjusted for registration lag. This differs to the Total Fertility Rates published in Births, Australia (cat. no. 3301.0) and Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).
The ratio of each state and territories' average TFR for the ten years 2007–2016 to that of Australia is calculated, then applied to assumed future Australian TFRs. These ratios remain constant throughout the projection period.
Assumed TFRs for the capital cities and state balances are derived by applying the average ratio (for 2007–2016) of the region to its respective state/territory to that state/territory's assumed TFR. Fertility rates for Australian capital cities are typically lower than rates for their respective states and territories, while rates for state balances are higher.
| Total fertility rate(a)(b) | Assumed fertility ratios(c) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital city | Rest of state | Total | Capital city | Rest of state | Total | |
| rate | rate | rate | % | % | % | |
| New South Wales | 1.85 | 2.10 | 1.93 | 96.1 | 109.1 | 101.0 |
| Victoria | 1.75 | 2.11 | 1.81 | 96.3 | 116.5 | 95.0 |
| Queensland | 1.90 | 2.09 | 1.99 | 95.3 | 105.2 | 104.2 |
| South Australia | 1.80 | 2.19 | 1.87 | 96.6 | 117.3 | 97.7 |
| Western Australia | 1.88 | 2.23 | 1.94 | 96.9 | 114.8 | 101.6 |
| Tasmania | 2.02 | 2.11 | 2.07 | 97.7 | 102.2 | 108.2 |
| Northern Territory | 2.00 | 2.17 | 2.10 | 95.1 | 103.3 | 109.9 |
| Australian Capital Territory | . . | . . | 1.75 | . . | . . | 91.6 |
| Australia(d) | . . | . . | 1.91 | . . | . . | 100.0 |
. . not applicable
a. Babies per woman.
b. Average of 2007–2016 TFRs.
c. Assumed fertility ratios show the relationship of the average TFR for 2007–2016 for each state/territory to Australia; capital city to state/territory; and rest of state/territory to state/territory.
d. Includes Other Territories.
| Higher assumption | Medium assumption | Lower assumption | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital city | Rest of state | Total | Capital city | Rest of state | Total | Capital city | Rest of state | Total | |
| rate | rate | rate | rate | rate | rate | rate | rate | rate | |
| New South Wales | 1.89 | 2.15 | 1.97 | 1.75 | 1.98 | 1.82 | 1.60 | 1.82 | 1.67 |
| Victoria | 1.78 | 2.16 | 1.85 | 1.65 | 1.99 | 1.71 | 1.51 | 1.83 | 1.57 |
| Queensland | 1.94 | 2.14 | 2.03 | 1.79 | 1.97 | 1.88 | 1.64 | 1.81 | 1.72 |
| South Australia | 1.84 | 2.24 | 1.91 | 1.70 | 2.06 | 1.76 | 1.56 | 1.89 | 1.61 |
| Western Australia | 1.92 | 2.28 | 1.98 | 1.77 | 2.10 | 1.83 | 1.63 | 1.93 | 1.68 |
| Tasmania | 2.06 | 2.16 | 2.11 | 1.90 | 1.99 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.83 | 1.79 |
| Northern Territory | 2.04 | 2.21 | 2.14 | 1.88 | 2.04 | 1.98 | 1.73 | 1.87 | 1.81 |
| Australian Capital Territory | . . | . . | 1.79 | . . | . . | 1.65 | . . | . . | 1.51 |
| Australia(b) | . . | . . | 1.95 | . . | . . | 1.80 | . . | . . | 1.65 |
. . not applicable
a. Babies per woman.
b. Includes Other Territories.
Population projections require assumptions about future age-specific fertility rates, which are derived from assumed TFRs and age distributions of fertility. These rates are applied to the projected female population in each year of the projection period in order to determine future numbers of births, and therefore the size of future projected populations.
Over the past 10 years, age-specific fertility rates have been declining for the younger age groups (women below age 30), whilst increasing among women aged 30 years and over, representing a gradual shift in fertility towards older ages.
The projected age distribution of mothers is based on half the average rate of change in the age-specific fertility rates during the period 2012–2016. The historical rate of change is assumed to slow down due to limits on child-bearing ages. These trends are assumed to continue under all three fertility scenarios until 2027, after which the age pattern of fertility remains constant.
Linear interpolation is used to obtain TFRs for each year 2017 to 2026 for all three scenarios, using the known TFR for 2016 and assumed TFR for 2027. To create assumed age-specific fertility rates, the assumed distribution of age of mothers is then applied to the assumed TFR for the corresponding projection year.
| Age (years) | 2006 | 2016 | 2027 Higher | 2027 Medium | 2027 Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 2.06 | 1.33 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| 16 | 6.53 | 3.22 | 2.36 | 2.18 | 2.00 |
| 17 | 14.00 | 6.97 | 4.64 | 4.28 | 3.93 |
| 18 | 22.78 | 12.05 | 8.95 | 8.26 | 7.57 |
| 19 | 34.58 | 21.25 | 14.77 | 13.63 | 12.49 |
| 20 | 39.78 | 28.15 | 21.98 | 20.29 | 18.60 |
| 21 | 45.83 | 34.50 | 29.71 | 27.43 | 25.14 |
| 22 | 52.98 | 42.19 | 37.86 | 34.95 | 32.04 |
| 23 | 61.10 | 49.24 | 46.61 | 43.02 | 39.44 |
| 24 | 69.94 | 57.72 | 55.46 | 51.19 | 46.93 |
| 25 | 82.14 | 66.33 | 66.12 | 61.04 | 55.95 |
| 26 | 94.30 | 78.97 | 78.82 | 72.75 | 66.69 |
| 27 | 106.44 | 92.51 | 94.19 | 86.95 | 79.70 |
| 28 | 118.67 | 105.77 | 110.49 | 101.99 | 93.49 |
| 29 | 128.55 | 118.19 | 125.35 | 115.70 | 106.06 |
| 30 | 131.72 | 125.00 | 138.75 | 128.08 | 117.40 |
| 31 | 134.64 | 133.43 | 146.26 | 135.01 | 123.76 |
| 32 | 130.65 | 129.68 | 148.19 | 136.79 | 125.39 |
| 33 | 122.21 | 124.08 | 142.83 | 131.84 | 120.86 |
| 34 | 110.38 | 115.56 | 132.62 | 122.42 | 112.22 |
| 35 | 95.88 | 101.49 | 118.98 | 109.82 | 100.67 |
| 36 | 80.18 | 88.11 | 102.25 | 94.39 | 86.52 |
| 37 | 64.03 | 72.25 | 84.76 | 78.24 | 71.72 |
| 38 | 49.41 | 56.35 | 68.19 | 62.95 | 57.70 |
| 39 | 36.83 | 44.46 | 52.46 | 48.42 | 44.39 |
| 40 | 25.21 | 30.97 | 39.43 | 36.40 | 33.36 |
| 41 | 16.21 | 22.23 | 27.44 | 25.33 | 23.22 |
| 42 | 10.26 | 13.71 | 18.42 | 17.00 | 15.59 |
| 43 | 5.39 | 7.98 | 11.32 | 10.45 | 9.58 |
| 44 | 2.73 | 4.41 | 6.77 | 6.25 | 5.73 |
| 45 | 1.30 | 2.44 | 4.16 | 3.84 | 3.52 |
| 46 | 0.79 | 1.48 | 2.71 | 2.50 | 2.30 |
| 47 | 0.36 | 0.88 | 1.88 | 1.74 | 1.59 |
| 48 | 0.25 | 0.47 | 1.88 | 1.74 | 1.59 |
| 49 | 0.13 | 0.80 | 2.59 | 2.39 | 2.19 |
Age-specific fertility rates(a), observed and assumed
["Age (years)","2006","2016","2027 Higher","2027 Medium","2027 Lower"]
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[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"2","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"25","axis_min":"0","axis_max":"175","axis_title":"rate","precision":"2","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]Projections require an assumed sex ratio at birth (the ratio of male to female births), so that total projected births can be split into male and female births.
Historically, the sex ratio fluctuates between 105 to 106 male births per 100 female births. A constant ratio of 105.5 male births per 100 female births has been used for the duration of the projection period.
For the population projections in this issue, two assumptions on future life expectancy at birth have been made. Only two assumptions have been made because life expectancy has consistently shown an improving trend since Australian records began.
The higher life expectancy at birth assumption assumes that life expectancy will continue to improve at the average rate observed in 2012–2016. The medium life expectancy at birth assumption assumes that life expectancy will also improve, but at a declining rate.
Life tables for 2015–2017 were not created in time to be included in the mortality assumption process.
Australian life expectancy at birth has improved steadily for both men and women. Since the early 1920s, life expectancy at birth for both males and females has increased by about 21 years. Since the 1980s, faster increases for males has narrowed the gap between male and female life expectancy at birth, from 7 to 4 years. Recent years has seen the improvement in life expectancy declining for both males and females, with both males and females recording an improvement of 0.06 years in 2014–2016.
| Males (years) | Females (years) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1982 | 71.25 | 78.26 |
| 1983 | 72.13 | 78.77 |
| 1984 | 72.46 | 78.97 |
| 1985 | 72.40 | 78.82 |
| 1986 | 72.88 | 79.20 |
| 1987 | 73.06 | 79.54 |
| 1988 | 73.10 | 79.53 |
| 1989 | 73.32 | 79.62 |
| 1990 | 73.87 | 80.08 |
| 1991 | 74.40 | 80.41 |
| 1992 | 74.46 | 80.42 |
| 1993 | 74.98 | 80.87 |
| 1994 | 75.04 | 80.90 |
| 1995 | 74.95 | 80.84 |
| 1996 | 75.22 | 81.05 |
| 1997 | 75.60 | 81.30 |
| 1998 | 75.86 | 81.52 |
| 1999 | 76.22 | 81.78 |
| 2000 | 76.56 | 82.04 |
| 2001 | 77.03 | 82.41 |
| 2002 | 77.40 | 82.59 |
| 2003 | 77.76 | 82.84 |
| 2004 | 78.08 | 83.03 |
| 2005 | 78.47 | 83.34 |
| 2006 | 78.71 | 83.48 |
| 2007 | 79.02 | 83.69 |
| 2008 | 79.16 | 83.73 |
| 2009 | 79.34 | 83.89 |
| 2010 | 79.51 | 84.03 |
| 2011 | 79.75 | 84.21 |
| 2012 | 79.87 | 84.25 |
| 2013 | 80.10 | 84.30 |
| 2014 | 80.30 | 84.40 |
| 2015 | 80.39 | 84.51 |
| 2016 | 80.45 | 84.56 |
| 2017 | 80.48 | 84.63 |
Life expectancy at birth
["","Males","Females"]
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[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"5","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"2.5","axis_min":"70","axis_max":"90","axis_title":"Age (years)","precision":"2","table_units":"(years)","tooltip_units":"(years)","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]The higher life expectancy assumption assumes male and female life expectancy at birth will continuously increase at the average growth of 2012–2016. The yearly increase of life expectancy of birth for the higher assumption is about 0.14 for males and 0.09 for females. Based on this assumption, male life expectancy at birth reaches 87.68 years in 2066 and female life expectancy at birth reaches 89.16 years.
The medium life expectancy assumption assumes male and female life expectancy at birth will increase at a slightly lower rate than the higher assumption for the first year, and then gradually slow. Based on this assumption, male life expectancy at birth would reach 83.00 years and female life expectancy at birth would reach 86.00 years in 2066.
| Males | Females | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| years | years | years | |
| Declining improvement in life expectancy (Medium assumption) | |||
| 2020–21 | 81.11 | 84.92 | 3.81 |
| 2025–26 | 81.53 | 85.16 | 3.63 |
| 2030–31 | 81.78 | 85.30 | 3.52 |
| 2035–36 | 81.95 | 85.40 | 3.45 |
| 2065–66 | 83.00 | 86.00 | 3.00 |
| Constant improvement in life expectancy (Higher assumption) | |||
| 2020–21 | 81.23 | 84.98 | 3.75 |
| 2025–26 | 81.94 | 85.39 | 3.45 |
| 2030–31 | 82.66 | 85.80 | 3.14 |
| 2035–36 | 83.38 | 86.22 | 2.84 |
| 2065–66 | 87.68 | 89.16 | 1.48 |
The inputs of the mortality component of population projections are 'survivorship ratios' obtained from assumed future life tables. Life tables for each year in the projection period (i.e. 2018–2066) are calculated in two steps: (1) life expectancy at birth for each projection year is determined; and (2) a life table is generated which gives the desired life expectancy at birth and allows for a shift in the age curve of mortality over time.
The shifting age curve of mortality over time should ideally represent current trends in age-sex differences continued into the future. To achieve this, rates of change indicative of recent trends for each age-sex group are incorporated in the production of the assumed life tables. Determining assumed rates of change is achieved by observing historical patterns in age-specific death rates.
Between 2006 and 2016, males aged 0–29, males aged 65–79 and females aged 0–9 had the largest relative declines in age-specific death rates. The groups with the least improvement in death rates were males aged 40–49, males aged over 95, females aged 35–49 and females aged over 90. In general, greater change over time has been observed for males compared to females.
These trends are reflected in the assumptions. The assumed rates of change of age-specific death rates over time continues to 2035–36, after which the age-specific death rates are proportionally adjusted to fit the assumed life expectancy at birth.
Age-specific mortality rates are assumed to decrease for all age groups for both males and females over the projection period. Very little change is assumed for ages over 90. For corresponding ages, mortality rates for females are always assumed to be lower than for males.
| Age (years) | 2017 | 2041 | 2066 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.00341 | 0.00231 | 0.00212 |
| 1 | 0.00028 | 0.00020 | 0.00019 |
| 2 | 0.00016 | 0.00012 | 0.00011 |
| 3 | 0.00014 | 0.00011 | 0.00010 |
| 4 | 0.00012 | 0.00010 | 0.00009 |
| 5 | 0.00011 | 0.00009 | 0.00008 |
| 6 | 0.00010 | 0.00008 | 0.00007 |
| 7 | 0.00009 | 0.00007 | 0.00007 |
| 8 | 0.00008 | 0.00007 | 0.00006 |
| 9 | 0.00008 | 0.00007 | 0.00006 |
| 10 | 0.00008 | 0.00007 | 0.00006 |
| 11 | 0.00009 | 0.00007 | 0.00007 |
| 12 | 0.00010 | 0.00008 | 0.00008 |
| 13 | 0.00012 | 0.00010 | 0.00009 |
| 14 | 0.00016 | 0.00013 | 0.00012 |
| 15 | 0.00022 | 0.00018 | 0.00017 |
| 16 | 0.00029 | 0.00024 | 0.00022 |
| 17 | 0.00037 | 0.00031 | 0.00028 |
| 18 | 0.00044 | 0.00036 | 0.00033 |
| 19 | 0.00051 | 0.00041 | 0.00038 |
| 20 | 0.00055 | 0.00044 | 0.00040 |
| 21 | 0.00057 | 0.00046 | 0.00042 |
| 22 | 0.00059 | 0.00047 | 0.00043 |
| 23 | 0.00061 | 0.00048 | 0.00044 |
| 24 | 0.00062 | 0.00049 | 0.00045 |
| 25 | 0.00063 | 0.00050 | 0.00046 |
| 26 | 0.00064 | 0.00051 | 0.00046 |
| 27 | 0.00066 | 0.00053 | 0.00048 |
| 28 | 0.00068 | 0.00055 | 0.00050 |
| 29 | 0.00071 | 0.00058 | 0.00053 |
| 30 | 0.00075 | 0.00062 | 0.00057 |
| 31 | 0.00080 | 0.00068 | 0.00062 |
| 32 | 0.00085 | 0.00073 | 0.00067 |
| 33 | 0.00092 | 0.00079 | 0.00073 |
| 34 | 0.00098 | 0.00086 | 0.00079 |
| 35 | 0.00104 | 0.00093 | 0.00085 |
| 36 | 0.00110 | 0.00099 | 0.00091 |
| 37 | 0.00116 | 0.00106 | 0.00097 |
| 38 | 0.00123 | 0.00113 | 0.00104 |
| 39 | 0.00131 | 0.00121 | 0.00111 |
| 40 | 0.00141 | 0.00131 | 0.00121 |
| 41 | 0.00153 | 0.00143 | 0.00131 |
| 42 | 0.00164 | 0.00154 | 0.00142 |
| 43 | 0.00176 | 0.00166 | 0.00153 |
| 44 | 0.00186 | 0.00177 | 0.00162 |
| 45 | 0.00198 | 0.00189 | 0.00173 |
| 46 | 0.00214 | 0.00205 | 0.00188 |
| 47 | 0.00232 | 0.00222 | 0.00204 |
| 48 | 0.00253 | 0.00241 | 0.00222 |
| 49 | 0.00275 | 0.00262 | 0.00240 |
| 50 | 0.00296 | 0.00281 | 0.00258 |
| 51 | 0.00321 | 0.00303 | 0.00278 |
| 52 | 0.00347 | 0.00326 | 0.00299 |
| 53 | 0.00376 | 0.00353 | 0.00324 |
| 54 | 0.00410 | 0.00384 | 0.00353 |
| 55 | 0.00445 | 0.00417 | 0.00383 |
| 56 | 0.00483 | 0.00451 | 0.00414 |
| 57 | 0.00524 | 0.00487 | 0.00447 |
| 58 | 0.00568 | 0.00524 | 0.00481 |
| 59 | 0.00616 | 0.00563 | 0.00516 |
| 60 | 0.00668 | 0.00602 | 0.00553 |
| 61 | 0.00722 | 0.00643 | 0.00590 |
| 62 | 0.00779 | 0.00686 | 0.00630 |
| 63 | 0.00843 | 0.00734 | 0.00674 |
| 64 | 0.00914 | 0.00788 | 0.00723 |
| 65 | 0.00992 | 0.00847 | 0.00777 |
| 66 | 0.01079 | 0.00914 | 0.00839 |
| 67 | 0.01181 | 0.00991 | 0.00910 |
| 68 | 0.01299 | 0.01082 | 0.00993 |
| 69 | 0.01431 | 0.01183 | 0.01085 |
| 70 | 0.01578 | 0.01295 | 0.01189 |
| 71 | 0.01743 | 0.01423 | 0.01307 |
| 72 | 0.01930 | 0.01572 | 0.01443 |
| 73 | 0.02144 | 0.01744 | 0.01601 |
| 74 | 0.02385 | 0.01943 | 0.01784 |
| 75 | 0.02655 | 0.02171 | 0.01993 |
| 76 | 0.02961 | 0.02431 | 0.02233 |
| 77 | 0.03308 | 0.02731 | 0.02509 |
| 78 | 0.03704 | 0.03078 | 0.02828 |
| 79 | 0.04165 | 0.03487 | 0.03204 |
| 80 | 0.04703 | 0.03970 | 0.03648 |
| 81 | 0.05318 | 0.04528 | 0.04162 |
| 82 | 0.06011 | 0.05163 | 0.04747 |
| 83 | 0.06792 | 0.05888 | 0.05415 |
| 84 | 0.07682 | 0.06724 | 0.06186 |
| 85 | 0.08688 | 0.07678 | 0.07067 |
| 86 | 0.09810 | 0.08728 | 0.08037 |
| 87 | 0.11031 | 0.09854 | 0.09078 |
| 88 | 0.12349 | 0.11047 | 0.10181 |
| 89 | 0.13765 | 0.12299 | 0.11341 |
| 90 | 0.15277 | 0.13599 | 0.12547 |
| 91 | 0.16906 | 0.15084 | 0.13925 |
| 92 | 0.18636 | 0.16762 | 0.15485 |
| 93 | 0.20423 | 0.18614 | 0.17209 |
| 94 | 0.22234 | 0.20622 | 0.19082 |
| 95 | 0.24025 | 0.22745 | 0.21065 |
| 96 | 0.25751 | 0.24694 | 0.22888 |
| 97 | 0.27414 | 0.26486 | 0.24568 |
| 98 | 0.28981 | 0.28105 | 0.26087 |
| 99 | 0.30454 | 0.29551 | 0.27446 |
| 100 | 0.34682 | 0.33596 | 0.31256 |
Age-specific mortality rates(a), males
["Age (years)","2017","2041","2066"]
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[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"10","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"rate(b)","precision":"5","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]| Age (years) | 2017 | 2041 | 2066 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.00319 | 0.00222 | 0.00211 |
| 1 | 0.00021 | 0.00017 | 0.00016 |
| 2 | 0.00013 | 0.00011 | 0.00010 |
| 3 | 0.00011 | 0.00009 | 0.00009 |
| 4 | 0.00010 | 0.00009 | 0.00008 |
| 5 | 0.00009 | 0.00008 | 0.00007 |
| 6 | 0.00008 | 0.00007 | 0.00007 |
| 7 | 0.00007 | 0.00006 | 0.00006 |
| 8 | 0.00007 | 0.00006 | 0.00006 |
| 9 | 0.00007 | 0.00006 | 0.00006 |
| 10 | 0.00007 | 0.00006 | 0.00006 |
| 11 | 0.00008 | 0.00007 | 0.00007 |
| 12 | 0.00009 | 0.00008 | 0.00007 |
| 13 | 0.00010 | 0.00009 | 0.00009 |
| 14 | 0.00013 | 0.00012 | 0.00011 |
| 15 | 0.00015 | 0.00014 | 0.00013 |
| 16 | 0.00018 | 0.00016 | 0.00015 |
| 17 | 0.00020 | 0.00018 | 0.00017 |
| 18 | 0.00021 | 0.00019 | 0.00018 |
| 19 | 0.00022 | 0.00019 | 0.00018 |
| 20 | 0.00023 | 0.00020 | 0.00019 |
| 21 | 0.00023 | 0.00020 | 0.00019 |
| 22 | 0.00024 | 0.00021 | 0.00019 |
| 23 | 0.00025 | 0.00021 | 0.00020 |
| 24 | 0.00026 | 0.00022 | 0.00021 |
| 25 | 0.00027 | 0.00023 | 0.00022 |
| 26 | 0.00028 | 0.00024 | 0.00023 |
| 27 | 0.00029 | 0.00025 | 0.00024 |
| 28 | 0.00031 | 0.00027 | 0.00026 |
| 29 | 0.00033 | 0.00029 | 0.00028 |
| 30 | 0.00036 | 0.00032 | 0.00031 |
| 31 | 0.00039 | 0.00036 | 0.00034 |
| 32 | 0.00043 | 0.00040 | 0.00038 |
| 33 | 0.00046 | 0.00043 | 0.00041 |
| 34 | 0.00050 | 0.00047 | 0.00045 |
| 35 | 0.00054 | 0.00051 | 0.00049 |
| 36 | 0.00058 | 0.00055 | 0.00053 |
| 37 | 0.00062 | 0.00060 | 0.00056 |
| 38 | 0.00067 | 0.00065 | 0.00061 |
| 39 | 0.00072 | 0.00070 | 0.00066 |
| 40 | 0.00078 | 0.00075 | 0.00071 |
| 41 | 0.00085 | 0.00082 | 0.00078 |
| 42 | 0.00093 | 0.00090 | 0.00085 |
| 43 | 0.00102 | 0.00099 | 0.00093 |
| 44 | 0.00111 | 0.00107 | 0.00102 |
| 45 | 0.00121 | 0.00117 | 0.00111 |
| 46 | 0.00131 | 0.00126 | 0.00120 |
| 47 | 0.00142 | 0.00137 | 0.00130 |
| 48 | 0.00152 | 0.00147 | 0.00139 |
| 49 | 0.00165 | 0.00159 | 0.00151 |
| 50 | 0.00179 | 0.00172 | 0.00163 |
| 51 | 0.00195 | 0.00187 | 0.00177 |
| 52 | 0.00213 | 0.00204 | 0.00193 |
| 53 | 0.00232 | 0.00221 | 0.00209 |
| 54 | 0.00251 | 0.00238 | 0.00225 |
| 55 | 0.00270 | 0.00256 | 0.00242 |
| 56 | 0.00291 | 0.00274 | 0.00260 |
| 57 | 0.00314 | 0.00294 | 0.00278 |
| 58 | 0.00338 | 0.00315 | 0.00299 |
| 59 | 0.00366 | 0.00339 | 0.00321 |
| 60 | 0.00395 | 0.00363 | 0.00344 |
| 61 | 0.00425 | 0.00388 | 0.00368 |
| 62 | 0.00458 | 0.00416 | 0.00394 |
| 63 | 0.00496 | 0.00447 | 0.00424 |
| 64 | 0.00539 | 0.00482 | 0.00457 |
| 65 | 0.00589 | 0.00523 | 0.00495 |
| 66 | 0.00649 | 0.00573 | 0.00543 |
| 67 | 0.00720 | 0.00633 | 0.00599 |
| 68 | 0.00797 | 0.00699 | 0.00662 |
| 69 | 0.00884 | 0.00776 | 0.00735 |
| 70 | 0.00981 | 0.00862 | 0.00817 |
| 71 | 0.01090 | 0.00960 | 0.00910 |
| 72 | 0.01214 | 0.01072 | 0.01015 |
| 73 | 0.01359 | 0.01201 | 0.01138 |
| 74 | 0.01526 | 0.01352 | 0.01280 |
| 75 | 0.01717 | 0.01523 | 0.01443 |
| 76 | 0.01931 | 0.01717 | 0.01626 |
| 77 | 0.02172 | 0.01936 | 0.01835 |
| 78 | 0.02449 | 0.02191 | 0.02077 |
| 79 | 0.02771 | 0.02491 | 0.02361 |
| 80 | 0.03154 | 0.02849 | 0.02700 |
| 81 | 0.03608 | 0.03275 | 0.03104 |
| 82 | 0.04145 | 0.03783 | 0.03586 |
| 83 | 0.04771 | 0.04377 | 0.04150 |
| 84 | 0.05492 | 0.05067 | 0.04805 |
| 85 | 0.06307 | 0.05852 | 0.05550 |
| 86 | 0.07224 | 0.06734 | 0.06388 |
| 87 | 0.08264 | 0.07731 | 0.07337 |
| 88 | 0.09444 | 0.08860 | 0.08410 |
| 89 | 0.10786 | 0.10138 | 0.09627 |
| 90 | 0.12288 | 0.11563 | 0.10985 |
| 91 | 0.13928 | 0.13158 | 0.12504 |
| 92 | 0.15689 | 0.14916 | 0.14182 |
| 93 | 0.17573 | 0.16851 | 0.16031 |
| 94 | 0.19576 | 0.18965 | 0.18051 |
| 95 | 0.21684 | 0.21243 | 0.20232 |
| 96 | 0.23868 | 0.23511 | 0.22406 |
| 97 | 0.26088 | 0.25574 | 0.23484 |
| 98 | 0.28358 | 0.27719 | 0.24945 |
| 99 | 0.30223 | 0.28688 | 0.27377 |
| 100 | 0.32132 | 0.31754 | 0.30328 |
Age-specific mortality rates(a), females
["Age (years)","2017","2041","2066"]
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[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"10","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"rate(b)","precision":"5","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]Assumptions of life expectancy at birth by state/territory are derived from the Australian assumptions by applying a ten year average of the ratio of the state or territory life expectancy to the Australian life expectancy. A similar process is used to create the capital city/rest of state assumptions, by using the ratio of capital city/rest of state life expectancy to the state life expectancy for the most recent life table period 2014–2016. These ratios are calculated separately for males and females and remain constant through the projection period.
| Life expectancy at birth 2014-2016 | Male mortality ratios | Female mortality ratios | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Males | Females | Capital city | Rest of state | Total | Capital city | Rest of state | Total | |
| Years | Years | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| New South Wales | 80.42 | 84.58 | 101.5 | 98.5 | 100.0 | 101.1 | 99.1 | 100.1 |
| Victoria | 81.18 | 84.70 | 101.8 | 99.0 | 100.8 | 101.3 | 99.3 | 100.2 |
| Queensland | 80.11 | 84.47 | 100.3 | 99.2 | 99.6 | 100.2 | 99.7 | 99.9 |
| South Australia | 80.36 | 84.45 | 100.6 | 98.8 | 99.9 | 100.1 | 99.9 | 99.9 |
| Western Australia | 80.31 | 84.82 | 100.9 | 98.4 | 100.0 | 101.0 | 99.2 | 100.4 |
| Tasmania | 78.82 | 82.88 | 99.1 | 98.0 | 98.1 | 98.1 | 98.0 | 98.0 |
| Northern Territory | 75.56 | 78.66 | 96.1 | 90.1 | 93.4 | 98.2 | 89.7 | 93.5 |
| Australian Capital Territory | 81.26 | 85.22 | . . | . . | 101.2 | . . | . . | 100.7 |
| Australia | 80.45 | 84.56 | . . | . . | 100.0 | . . | . . | 100.0 |
. . not applicable
a. Mortality ratios based on the relationships of 2006–2016 life expectancies at birth between each state/territory and Australia, and 2014–2016 life expectancies at birth between each capital city and its state/territory, and between each rest of state/territory and its state/territory.
Three assumptions have been made about Australia's future levels of net overseas migration (NOM):
In addition, a zero net overseas migration assumption has been included to facilitate analysis of the effect of overseas migration on Australia's future population.
ABS projections have used forecasts produced by the Department of Home Affairs up until 2021–22. Beyond 2021–22, the NOM assumption reflects established trends observed in the period 2008–2017. All NOM assumptions are held constant from 2026–27 onwards.
Annual levels of NOM have fluctuated considerably in Australia over the past 20 years. For financial years, the level has been as low as 80,000 in 1997-98 to a high of 300,000 in 2008-09.
| Observed | Assumed - Higher | Assumed - Medium | Assumed - Lower | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 87,079 | |||
| 1998 | 79,162 | |||
| 1999 | 96,483 | |||
| 2000 | 107,275 | |||
| 2001 | 135,673 | |||
| 2002 | 110,556 | |||
| 2003 | 116,498 | |||
| 2004 | 99,966 | |||
| 2005 | 123,763 | |||
| 2006 | 146,753 | |||
| 2007 | 232,796 | |||
| 2008 | 277,338 | |||
| 2009 | 299,866 | |||
| 2010 | 196,058 | |||
| 2011 | 180,372 | |||
| 2012 | 231,947 | |||
| 2013 | 230,329 | |||
| 2014 | 187,778 | |||
| 2015 | 184,033 | |||
| 2016 | 206,233 | |||
| 2017 | 262,268 | 262,268 | 262,268 | 262,268 |
| 2018 | 269,000 | 259,000 | 249,000 | |
| 2019 | 283,000 | 269,000 | 254,000 | |
| 2020 | 286,000 | 267,000 | 248,000 | |
| 2021 | 286,000 | 262,000 | 239,000 | |
| 2022 | 286,000 | 258,000 | 230,000 | |
| 2023 | 284,000 | 251,000 | 219,000 | |
| 2024 | 282,000 | 245,000 | 208,000 | |
| 2025 | 279,000 | 238,000 | 197,000 | |
| 2026 | 277,000 | 232,000 | 186,000 | |
| 2027 | 275,000 | 225,000 | 175,000 |
Net overseas migration(a), observed and assumed
["","Observed","Assumed - Higher","Assumed - Medium","Assumed - Lower"]
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[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"2","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"50000","axis_min":"50000","axis_max":"300000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]New South Wales was the largest gainer of NOM from 2008 to 2017, with Victoria being the second largest gainer. NOM for Queensland and Western Australia declined after those states recorded strong NOM gains at the start of the period. Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory have seen fluctuations in their NOM between 2008 and 2017, with Tasmania and the Northern Territory recording strong gains in 2017.
| Year ending 30 June | NSW ('000) | Vic. ('000) | Qld ('000) | SA ('000) | WA ('000) | Tas. ('000) | NT ('000) | ACT ('000) | Aust. ('000) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 87.4 | 73.6 | 53.9 | 15.3 | 41.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 277.3 |
| 2009 | 86.7 | 83.6 | 59.3 | 18.0 | 44.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 299.9 |
| 2010 | 57.2 | 53.7 | 35.8 | 14.5 | 28.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 196.1 |
| 2011 | 51.7 | 44.6 | 34.6 | 9.2 | 36.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 180.4 |
| 2012 | 57.2 | 56.2 | 46.5 | 12.4 | 50.8 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 231.9 |
| 2013 | 66.8 | 59.0 | 41.8 | 11.7 | 42.1 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 230.3 |
| 2014 | 67.0 | 56.9 | 27.2 | 11.6 | 18.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 187.8 |
| 2015 | 70.3 | 60.7 | 20.4 | 11.2 | 14.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 184.0 |
| 2016 | 80.0 | 72.2 | 25.0 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 206.2 |
| 2017 | 104.6 | 89.9 | 34.9 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 262.3 |
Previously, overseas migration data was not available below the state/territory level which meant an indirect method was used to calculate the capital city/rest of state level. With the release of sub-state population component data in the ABS publication Regional Population Growth, Australia (cat. no. 3218.0), regional overseas migration estimates have been used to calculate the capital city/rest of state for overseas migration.
Each state and territory's proportion of NOM is based on an average of the last ten years of NOM data. The table below shows the assumed state/territory net overseas migration distribution.
| NSW (%) | Vic. (%) | Qld (%) | SA (%) | WA (%) | Tas. (%) | NT (%) | ACT (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 39.06 | 33.75 | 13.73 | 4.57 | 5.92 | 0.78 | 0.69 | 1.50 |
| 2019 | 38.32 | 33.21 | 14.05 | 4.70 | 6.74 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 1.49 |
| 2020 | 37.58 | 32.67 | 14.37 | 4.82 | 7.56 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 1.48 |
| 2021 | 36.84 | 32.13 | 14.69 | 4.95 | 8.38 | 0.78 | 0.76 | 1.47 |
| 2022 | 36.10 | 31.60 | 15.00 | 5.07 | 9.20 | 0.79 | 0.78 | 1.46 |
| 2023 | 35.36 | 31.06 | 15.32 | 5.20 | 10.02 | 0.79 | 0.81 | 1.44 |
| 2024 | 34.62 | 30.52 | 15.64 | 5.32 | 10.84 | 0.79 | 0.83 | 1.43 |
| 2025 | 33.88 | 29.98 | 15.96 | 5.45 | 11.66 | 0.79 | 0.85 | 1.42 |
| 2026 | 33.14 | 29.44 | 16.28 | 5.57 | 12.48 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 1.41 |
| 2027-2066 | 32.40 | 28.90 | 16.60 | 5.70 | 13.30 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| Higher assumption | Medium assumption | Lower assumption | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital city | Rest of state | Total | Capital city | Rest of state | Total | Capital city | Rest of state | Total | |
| ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | |
| New South Wales | 76.74 | 12.37 | 89.10 | 62.34 | 10.56 | 72.90 | 47.95 | 8.76 | 56.70 |
| Victoria | 73.02 | 6.45 | 79.48 | 59.52 | 5.50 | 65.03 | 46.03 | 4.55 | 50.58 |
| Queensland | 27.41 | 18.24 | 45.65 | 22.24 | 15.12 | 37.35 | 17.06 | 12.00 | 29.05 |
| South Australia | 14.42 | 1.25 | 15.68 | 11.78 | 1.04 | 12.83 | 9.14 | 0.83 | 9.98 |
| Western Australia | 32.79 | 3.78 | 36.58 | 26.81 | 3.12 | 29.93 | 20.82 | 2.45 | 23.28 |
| Tasmania | 1.31 | 0.89 | 2.20 | 1.07 | 0.74 | 1.80 | 0.82 | 0.58 | 1.40 |
| Northern Territory | 1.89 | 0.59 | 2.48 | 1.55 | 0.48 | 2.03 | 1.20 | 0.37 | 1.58 |
| Australian Capital Territory | . . | . . | 3.85 | . . | . . | 3.15 | . . | . . | 2.45 |
| Australia | 231.44 | 43.56 | 275.00 | 188.45 | 36.55 | 225.00 | 145.46 | 29.54 | 175.00 |
. . not applicable
The assumed age/sex structure of NOM for the states and territories is derived from the 2015–2017 NOM. Overseas migrant arrivals and departures by state/territory, age and sex are simultaneously constrained to the total assumed NOM level for Australia and to the assumed state/territory shares of NOM. The assumed age/sex structures are held constant throughout the projection period.
Interstate migration is a volatile and largely unpredictable component in population estimation or projection. The movement of people between the states and territories of Australia is influenced by many factors such as varying economic opportunities, overseas immigration and settlement patterns, lifestyle choices and marketing campaigns targeting interstate movers by state/territory governments. As the effect of these factors cannot be anticipated, past net interstate migration trends are used as the basis for assuming future levels.
Net interstate migration (NIM) estimates since 1 July 2007 are shown below. These are calculated using Medicare change of address records, defence data and Census data on usual residence one year ago and five years ago.
| Year ending 30 June | NSW | Vic. | Qld | SA | WA | Tas | NT | ACT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | |
| 2008 | -20.8 | -1.9 | 19.4 | -4.2 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 2009 | -18.7 | 1.5 | 14.7 | -4.4 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | -0.3 |
| 2010 | -9.5 | 3.3 | 6.2 | -2.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 0.4 |
| 2011 | -13.5 | 3.5 | 6.8 | -2.6 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -2.5 | 1.4 |
| 2012 | -18.1 | 2.4 | 11.8 | -3.2 | 8.6 | -1.9 | -0.7 | 1.1 |
| 2013 | -14.6 | 6.4 | 8.9 | -4.8 | 5.7 | -1.3 | -0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2014 | -6.8 | 9.7 | 6.3 | -3.9 | -1.7 | -0.4 | -2.4 | -0.8 |
| 2015 | -6.8 | 11.1 | 6.9 | -4.6 | -4.3 | 0.1 | -2.3 | -0.1 |
| 2016 | -11.5 | 17.6 | 12.0 | -7.2 | -10.0 | 0.8 | -2.0 | 0.4 |
| 2017 | -15.2 | 18.2 | 17.8 | -6.8 | -13.9 | 1.5 | -2.9 | 1.2 |
Victoria has returned to net interstate migration gains after earlier losses, overtaking Queensland in the last four years to be the largest recipient of net interstate migration. Western Australia has experienced a turn around from gains up until 2012–13 to increasingly larger losses. New South Wales and South Australia have continued to experience net interstate migration losses, not recording a net interstate migration gain in the last 38 and 26 years, respectively.
Levels of assumed net interstate migration were derived by analysing trends over the past ten years and constraining them such that they sum to zero. The assumptions reflect the view that each state/territory will trend towards their short term average.
Three assumptions have been made about future net interstate migration levels:
The medium series assumptions are based on NIM averages for the states and territories in the period 2008–2017. The large and small assumptions are based on minimum and maximum share of state values of observed arrivals and departures over the last ten years, with adjustments made based on the trend data, as well as ensuring that each sum of the state/territory NIM is zero.
It should be noted that for some states the large interstate flows assumption corresponds to large net interstate migration losses, therefore the small interstate flows assumption will yield greater population growth in such cases.
All assumptions are separated into arrivals and departures for each state/territory and capital city/rest of state (Greater Capital City Statistical Area). Rates for arrivals and departures for the states and territories are generated from movement data from recent Censuses to obtain age/sex levels. Further, 2011 and 2016 Census data are used to generate age/sex arrival and departure levels for each capital city/rest of state. As a result, all age/sex arrival and departure disaggregations sum to the net internal migration assumptions.
| Large interstate flows assumption | Medium interstate flows assumption | Small interstate flows assumption | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital city | Rest of state | Total | Capital city | Rest of state | Total | Capital city | Rest of state | Total | |
| ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | ('000) | |
| New South Wales | -23.9 | 2.9 | -21.0 | -20.2 | 6.7 | -13.5 | -17.0 | 10.0 | -7.0 |
| Victoria | 8.4 | 9.6 | 18.0 | 1.7 | 5.3 | 7.0 | –3.8 | 1.8 | -2.0 |
| Queensland | 9.0 | 11.0 | 20.0 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 11.0 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 6.0 |
| South Australia | -6.2 | -0.8 | -7.0 | -4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | –3.2 | 0.7 | -2.5 |
| Western Australia | -5.6 | -4.4 | –10.0 | 0.9 | –0.4 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 |
| Tasmania | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | –0.5 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -1.4 | -1.5 |
| Northern Territory | -1.3 | -1.7 | –3.0 | 0.0 | –1.0 | -1.0 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 1.0 |
| Australian Capital Territory | . . | . . | 1.5 | . . | . . | 0.5 | . . | . . | -1.0 |
. . not applicable
| Total fertility rate(a) | Male life expentancy at birth(b) | Female life expenctancy at birth(b) | Net overseas migration(a) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High series | 1.95 | 87.7 | 89.2 | 275,000 |
| Medium series | 1.80 | 83.0 | 86.0 | 225,000 |
| Low series | 1.65 | 83.0 | 86.0 | 175,000 |
a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.
Australia's population at 30 June 2017 of 24.6 million is projected to:
An assumption of zero net overseas migration has been included to demonstrate the trajectory of Australia's future population relying entirely on natural increase.
| High series | Medium series | Low series | Zero net overseas migration | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 24,600,777 | 24,600,777 | 24,600,777 | 24,600,777 |
| 2018 | 25,029,253 | 25,015,825 | 25,001,966 | 24,753,669 |
| 2019 | 25,478,136 | 25,444,104 | 25,408,521 | 24,903,161 |
| 2020 | 25,936,500 | 25,873,480 | 25,809,095 | 25,048,626 |
| 2021 | 26,402,046 | 26,301,274 | 26,200,811 | 25,190,067 |
| 2022 | 26,873,947 | 26,727,025 | 26,582,009 | 25,325,761 |
| 2023 | 27,349,900 | 27,147,199 | 26,949,969 | 25,454,972 |
| 2024 | 27,829,520 | 27,562,195 | 27,303,910 | 25,576,973 |
| 2025 | 28,311,405 | 27,970,435 | 27,643,086 | 25,691,129 |
| 2026 | 28,796,151 | 28,372,315 | 27,966,732 | 25,796,865 |
| 2027 | 29,283,507 | 28,765,734 | 28,273,607 | 25,893,232 |
| 2028 | 29,773,492 | 29,157,085 | 28,575,391 | 25,979,797 |
| 2029 | 30,264,147 | 29,545,877 | 28,872,946 | 26,056,317 |
| 2030 | 30,755,046 | 29,931,725 | 29,165,889 | 26,122,837 |
| 2031 | 31,245,852 | 30,314,335 | 29,453,938 | 26,179,604 |
| 2032 | 31,736,375 | 30,693,262 | 29,736,678 | 26,226,812 |
| 2033 | 32,226,409 | 31,068,410 | 30,014,050 | 26,265,047 |
| 2034 | 32,715,890 | 31,439,821 | 30,286,143 | 26,295,044 |
| 2035 | 33,204,848 | 31,807,641 | 30,553,159 | 26,317,619 |
| 2036 | 33,693,412 | 32,172,123 | 30,815,407 | 26,333,632 |
| 2037 | 34,182,203 | 32,533,632 | 31,073,310 | 26,343,974 |
| 2038 | 34,671,331 | 32,892,495 | 31,327,250 | 26,349,391 |
| 2039 | 35,160,908 | 33,248,991 | 31,577,558 | 26,350,475 |
| 2040 | 35,651,025 | 33,603,376 | 31,824,534 | 26,347,685 |
| 2041 | 36,141,847 | 33,955,939 | 32,068,498 | 26,341,405 |
| 2042 | 36,633,428 | 34,306,863 | 32,309,646 | 26,331,834 |
| 2043 | 37,125,971 | 34,656,377 | 32,548,204 | 26,319,147 |
| 2044 | 37,619,613 | 35,004,632 | 32,784,296 | 26,303,389 |
| 2045 | 38,114,559 | 35,351,791 | 33,018,032 | 26,284,580 |
| 2046 | 38,611,020 | 35,698,016 | 33,249,486 | 26,262,710 |
| 2047 | 39,109,288 | 36,043,472 | 33,478,711 | 26,237,737 |
| 2048 | 39,609,722 | 36,388,374 | 33,705,787 | 26,209,658 |
| 2049 | 40,112,650 | 36,732,899 | 33,930,739 | 26,178,414 |
| 2050 | 40,618,436 | 37,077,210 | 34,153,575 | 26,143,924 |
| 2051 | 41,127,485 | 37,421,528 | 34,374,365 | 26,106,159 |
| 2052 | 41,640,167 | 37,766,007 | 34,593,127 | 26,065,040 |
| 2053 | 42,156,755 | 38,110,846 | 34,809,946 | 26,020,534 |
| 2054 | 42,677,496 | 38,456,120 | 35,024,815 | 25,972,554 |
| 2055 | 43,202,553 | 38,801,884 | 35,237,742 | 25,921,023 |
| 2056 | 43,731,893 | 39,148,145 | 35,448,725 | 25,865,876 |
| 2057 | 44,265,558 | 39,494,845 | 35,657,744 | 25,807,056 |
| 2058 | 44,803,407 | 39,841,888 | 35,864,777 | 25,744,536 |
| 2059 | 45,345,286 | 40,189,171 | 36,069,828 | 25,678,344 |
| 2060 | 45,890,971 | 40,536,481 | 36,272,819 | 25,608,487 |
| 2061 | 46,440,182 | 40,883,602 | 36,473,692 | 25,535,032 |
| 2062 | 46,992,564 | 41,230,317 | 36,672,396 | 25,458,107 |
| 2063 | 47,547,713 | 41,576,362 | 36,868,831 | 25,377,848 |
| 2064 | 48,105,281 | 41,921,500 | 37,062,917 | 25,294,455 |
| 2065 | 48,664,837 | 42,265,557 | 37,254,622 | 25,208,210 |
| 2066 | 49,226,089 | 42,608,269 | 37,443,819 | 25,119,356 |
Projected population, Australia
["","High series","Medium series","Low series","Zero net overseas migration"]
[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[24600777],[25029253],[25478136],[25936500],[26402046],[26873947],[27349900],[27829520],[28311405],[28796151],[29283507],[29773492],[30264147],[30755046],[31245852],[31736375],[32226409],[32715890],[33204848],[33693412],[34182203],[34671331],[35160908],[35651025],[36141847],[36633428],[37125971],[37619613],[38114559],[38611020],[39109288],[39609722],[40112650],[40618436],[41127485],[41640167],[42156755],[42677496],[43202553],[43731893],[44265558],[44803407],[45345286],[45890971],[46440182],[46992564],[47547713],[48105281],[48664837],[49226089]],[[24600777],[25015825],[25444104],[25873480],[26301274],[26727025],[27147199],[27562195],[27970435],[28372315],[28765734],[29157085],[29545877],[29931725],[30314335],[30693262],[31068410],[31439821],[31807641],[32172123],[32533632],[32892495],[33248991],[33603376],[33955939],[34306863],[34656377],[35004632],[35351791],[35698016],[36043472],[36388374],[36732899],[37077210],[37421528],[37766007],[38110846],[38456120],[38801884],[39148145],[39494845],[39841888],[40189171],[40536481],[40883602],[41230317],[41576362],[41921500],[42265557],[42608269]],[[24600777],[25001966],[25408521],[25809095],[26200811],[26582009],[26949969],[27303910],[27643086],[27966732],[28273607],[28575391],[28872946],[29165889],[29453938],[29736678],[30014050],[30286143],[30553159],[30815407],[31073310],[31327250],[31577558],[31824534],[32068498],[32309646],[32548204],[32784296],[33018032],[33249486],[33478711],[33705787],[33930739],[34153575],[34374365],[34593127],[34809946],[35024815],[35237742],[35448725],[35657744],[35864777],[36069828],[36272819],[36473692],[36672396],[36868831],[37062917],[37254622],[37443819]],[[24600777],[24753669],[24903161],[25048626],[25190067],[25325761],[25454972],[25576973],[25691129],[25796865],[25893232],[25979797],[26056317],[26122837],[26179604],[26226812],[26265047],[26295044],[26317619],[26333632],[26343974],[26349391],[26350475],[26347685],[26341405],[26331834],[26319147],[26303389],[26284580],[26262710],[26237737],[26209658],[26178414],[26143924],[26106159],[26065040],[26020534],[25972554],[25921023],[25865876],[25807056],[25744536],[25678344],[25608487],[25535032],[25458107],[25377848],[25294455],[25208210],[25119356]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"5000000","axis_min":"23000000","axis_max":"55000000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]Australia's population growth is comprised of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration (migrant arrivals minus migrant departures).
There were 307,800 births and 160,200 deaths during 2016-17, resulting in a natural increase of 147,600 people.
| High series | Medium series | Low series | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 147,602 | 147,602 | 147,602 |
| 2018 | 159,476 | 156,048 | 152,189 |
| 2019 | 165,883 | 159,279 | 152,555 |
| 2020 | 172,364 | 162,376 | 152,574 |
| 2021 | 179,546 | 165,794 | 152,716 |
| 2022 | 185,901 | 167,751 | 151,198 |
| 2023 | 191,953 | 169,174 | 148,960 |
| 2024 | 197,620 | 169,996 | 145,941 |
| 2025 | 202,885 | 170,240 | 142,176 |
| 2026 | 207,746 | 169,880 | 137,646 |
| 2027 | 212,356 | 168,419 | 131,875 |
| 2028 | 214,985 | 166,351 | 126,784 |
| 2029 | 215,655 | 163,792 | 122,555 |
| 2030 | 215,899 | 160,848 | 117,943 |
| 2031 | 215,806 | 157,610 | 113,049 |
| 2032 | 215,523 | 153,927 | 107,740 |
| 2033 | 215,034 | 150,148 | 102,372 |
| 2034 | 214,481 | 146,411 | 97,093 |
| 2035 | 213,958 | 142,820 | 92,016 |
| 2036 | 213,564 | 139,482 | 87,248 |
| 2037 | 213,791 | 136,509 | 82,903 |
| 2038 | 214,128 | 133,863 | 78,940 |
| 2039 | 214,577 | 131,496 | 75,308 |
| 2040 | 215,117 | 129,385 | 71,976 |
| 2041 | 215,822 | 127,563 | 68,964 |
| 2042 | 216,581 | 125,924 | 66,148 |
| 2043 | 217,543 | 124,514 | 63,558 |
| 2044 | 218,642 | 123,255 | 61,092 |
| 2045 | 219,946 | 122,159 | 58,736 |
| 2046 | 221,461 | 121,225 | 56,454 |
| 2047 | 223,268 | 120,456 | 54,225 |
| 2048 | 225,434 | 119,902 | 52,076 |
| 2049 | 227,928 | 119,525 | 49,952 |
| 2050 | 230,786 | 119,311 | 47,836 |
| 2051 | 234,049 | 119,318 | 45,790 |
| 2052 | 237,682 | 119,479 | 43,762 |
| 2053 | 241,588 | 119,839 | 41,819 |
| 2054 | 245,741 | 120,274 | 39,869 |
| 2055 | 250,057 | 120,764 | 37,927 |
| 2056 | 254,340 | 121,261 | 35,983 |
| 2057 | 258,665 | 121,700 | 34,019 |
| 2058 | 262,849 | 122,043 | 32,033 |
| 2059 | 266,879 | 122,283 | 30,051 |
| 2060 | 270,685 | 122,310 | 27,991 |
| 2061 | 274,211 | 122,121 | 25,873 |
| 2062 | 277,382 | 121,715 | 23,704 |
| 2063 | 280,149 | 121,045 | 21,435 |
| 2064 | 282,568 | 120,138 | 19,086 |
| 2065 | 284,556 | 119,057 | 16,705 |
| 2066 | 286,252 | 117,712 | 14,197 |
Projected natural increase, Australia
["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]
[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[147602],[159476],[165883],[172364],[179546],[185901],[191953],[197620],[202885],[207746],[212356],[214985],[215655],[215899],[215806],[215523],[215034],[214481],[213958],[213564],[213791],[214128],[214577],[215117],[215822],[216581],[217543],[218642],[219946],[221461],[223268],[225434],[227928],[230786],[234049],[237682],[241588],[245741],[250057],[254340],[258665],[262849],[266879],[270685],[274211],[277382],[280149],[282568],[284556],[286252]],[[147602],[156048],[159279],[162376],[165794],[167751],[169174],[169996],[170240],[169880],[168419],[166351],[163792],[160848],[157610],[153927],[150148],[146411],[142820],[139482],[136509],[133863],[131496],[129385],[127563],[125924],[124514],[123255],[122159],[121225],[120456],[119902],[119525],[119311],[119318],[119479],[119839],[120274],[120764],[121261],[121700],[122043],[122283],[122310],[122121],[121715],[121045],[120138],[119057],[117712]],[[147602],[152189],[152555],[152574],[152716],[151198],[148960],[145941],[142176],[137646],[131875],[126784],[122555],[117943],[113049],[107740],[102372],[97093],[92016],[87248],[82903],[78940],[75308],[71976],[68964],[66148],[63558],[61092],[58736],[56454],[54225],[52076],[49952],[47836],[45790],[43762],[41819],[39869],[37927],[35983],[34019],[32033],[30051],[27991],[25873],[23704],[21435],[19086],[16705],[14197]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"","axis_min":"0","axis_max":"300000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]In all series, overseas migrant arrivals are assumed to exceed departures, resulting in positive net overseas migration between 9.0 million to 13.5 million in total between 2027 and 2066.
| High series | Medium series | Low series | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 269,000 | 259,000 | 249,000 |
| 2019 | 552,000 | 528,000 | 503,000 |
| 2020 | 838,000 | 795,000 | 751,000 |
| 2021 | 1,124,000 | 1,057,000 | 990,000 |
| 2022 | 1,410,000 | 1,315,000 | 1,220,000 |
| 2023 | 1,694,000 | 1,566,000 | 1,439,000 |
| 2024 | 1,976,000 | 1,811,000 | 1,647,000 |
| 2025 | 2,255,000 | 2,049,000 | 1,844,000 |
| 2026 | 2,532,000 | 2,281,000 | 2,030,000 |
| 2027 | 2,807,000 | 2,506,000 | 2,205,000 |
| 2028 | 3,082,000 | 2,731,000 | 2,380,000 |
| 2029 | 3,357,000 | 2,956,000 | 2,555,000 |
| 2030 | 3,632,000 | 3,181,000 | 2,730,000 |
| 2031 | 3,907,000 | 3,406,000 | 2,905,000 |
| 2032 | 4,182,000 | 3,631,000 | 3,080,000 |
| 2033 | 4,457,000 | 3,856,000 | 3,255,000 |
| 2034 | 4,732,000 | 4,081,000 | 3,430,000 |
| 2035 | 5,007,000 | 4,306,000 | 3,605,000 |
| 2036 | 5,282,000 | 4,531,000 | 3,780,000 |
| 2037 | 5,557,000 | 4,756,000 | 3,955,000 |
| 2038 | 5,832,000 | 4,981,000 | 4,130,000 |
| 2039 | 6,107,000 | 5,206,000 | 4,305,000 |
| 2040 | 6,382,000 | 5,431,000 | 4,480,000 |
| 2041 | 6,657,000 | 5,656,000 | 4,655,000 |
| 2042 | 6,932,000 | 5,881,000 | 4,830,000 |
| 2043 | 7,207,000 | 6,106,000 | 5,005,000 |
| 2044 | 7,482,000 | 6,331,000 | 5,180,000 |
| 2045 | 7,757,000 | 6,556,000 | 5,355,000 |
| 2046 | 8,032,000 | 6,781,000 | 5,530,000 |
| 2047 | 8,307,000 | 7,006,000 | 5,705,000 |
| 2048 | 8,582,000 | 7,231,000 | 5,880,000 |
| 2049 | 8,857,000 | 7,456,000 | 6,055,000 |
| 2050 | 9,132,000 | 7,681,000 | 6,230,000 |
| 2051 | 9,407,000 | 7,906,000 | 6,405,000 |
| 2052 | 9,682,000 | 8,131,000 | 6,580,000 |
| 2053 | 9,957,000 | 8,356,000 | 6,755,000 |
| 2054 | 10,232,000 | 8,581,000 | 6,930,000 |
| 2055 | 10,507,000 | 8,806,000 | 7,105,000 |
| 2056 | 10,782,000 | 9,031,000 | 7,280,000 |
| 2057 | 11,057,000 | 9,256,000 | 7,455,000 |
| 2058 | 11,332,000 | 9,481,000 | 7,630,000 |
| 2059 | 11,607,000 | 9,706,000 | 7,805,000 |
| 2060 | 11,882,000 | 9,931,000 | 7,980,000 |
| 2061 | 12,157,000 | 10,156,000 | 8,155,000 |
| 2062 | 12,432,000 | 10,381,000 | 8,330,000 |
| 2063 | 12,707,000 | 10,606,000 | 8,505,000 |
| 2064 | 12,982,000 | 10,831,000 | 8,680,000 |
| 2065 | 13,257,000 | 11,056,000 | 8,855,000 |
| 2066 | 13,532,000 | 11,281,000 | 9,030,000 |
Contribution of net overseas migration to the projected population, Australia
["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]
[["2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[269000],[552000],[838000],[1124000],[1410000],[1694000],[1976000],[2255000],[2532000],[2807000],[3082000],[3357000],[3632000],[3907000],[4182000],[4457000],[4732000],[5007000],[5282000],[5557000],[5832000],[6107000],[6382000],[6657000],[6932000],[7207000],[7482000],[7757000],[8032000],[8307000],[8582000],[8857000],[9132000],[9407000],[9682000],[9957000],[10232000],[10507000],[10782000],[11057000],[11332000],[11607000],[11882000],[12157000],[12432000],[12707000],[12982000],[13257000],[13532000]],[[259000],[528000],[795000],[1057000],[1315000],[1566000],[1811000],[2049000],[2281000],[2506000],[2731000],[2956000],[3181000],[3406000],[3631000],[3856000],[4081000],[4306000],[4531000],[4756000],[4981000],[5206000],[5431000],[5656000],[5881000],[6106000],[6331000],[6556000],[6781000],[7006000],[7231000],[7456000],[7681000],[7906000],[8131000],[8356000],[8581000],[8806000],[9031000],[9256000],[9481000],[9706000],[9931000],[10156000],[10381000],[10606000],[10831000],[11056000],[11281000]],[[249000],[503000],[751000],[990000],[1220000],[1439000],[1647000],[1844000],[2030000],[2205000],[2380000],[2555000],[2730000],[2905000],[3080000],[3255000],[3430000],[3605000],[3780000],[3955000],[4130000],[4305000],[4480000],[4655000],[4830000],[5005000],[5180000],[5355000],[5530000],[5705000],[5880000],[6055000],[6230000],[6405000],[6580000],[6755000],[6930000],[7105000],[7280000],[7455000],[7630000],[7805000],[7980000],[8155000],[8330000],[8505000],[8680000],[8855000],[9030000]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"2500000","axis_min":"0","axis_max":"15000000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]Of the changes projected to occur in Australia's population, ageing is generally considered to be the most dramatic, with significant changes to the age structure of the population. Ageing of the population is a trend which has been evident over recent decades as a result of fertility remaining below replacement level and declining mortality rates. In all series this trend is projected to continue.
The median age for Australia is projected to increase from 37.2 years in 2017 to between 39.5 and 43.0 years in 2066.
The proportion of:
The high and medium series both project population growth for all states and territories between 2017 and 2066. The low series projects growth for all states and territories except Tasmania, which would decline from 2028. New South Wales is projected to remain as the largest state in all series, reaching over 9 million between 2025 and 2028. Victoria is projected to experience the largest and fastest increase in population over the projection period, increasing by between 60% to 130%.
By 2027:
| High series ('000) | Medium series ('000) | Low series ('000) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New South Wales | 14,796 | 13,088 | 11,754 |
| Victoria | 14,525 | 12,030 | 10,091 |
| Queensland | 10,469 | 8,718 | 7,507 |
| South Australia | 2,437 | 2,214 | 2,040 |
| Western Australia | 4,926 | 4,760 | 4,493 |
| Tasmania | 744 | 581 | 453 |
| Northern Territory | 386 | 439 | 490 |
| Australian Capital Territory | 939 | 775 | 612 |
| Australia(a) | 49,226 | 42,608 | 37,444 |
a. Includes Other Territories comprising Jervis Bay Territory, Christmas Island, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Norfolk Island.
Melbourne is projected to be the largest city in Australia by 2066 with a projected population between 8.6 million and 12.2 million, surpassing Sydney between 2031 and 2057.
At 30 June 2017, 67% of Australians lived in capital cities. This proportion is projected to increase to between 69% and 70% by 2027. All capital cities are projected to grow more than their respective rest of state or territory.
| Total fertility rate(a) | Male life expectancy at birth(b) | Female life expectancy at birth(b) | Net overseas migration(a) | Net interstate migration(a) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High series | 1.97 | 87.7 | 89.2 | 89,100 | -21,000 |
| Medium series | 1.82 | 83.0 | 86.0 | 72,900 | -13,500 |
| Low series | 1.67 | 83.0 | 86.0 | 56,700 | -7,000 |
a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.
New South Wales' population of 7.9 million is projected to:
Most of New South Wales growth is projected to occur in Greater Sydney. Sydney is projected to:
The rest of New South Wales is projected to have between 2.9 million and 3.0 million people by 2027.
| High series | Medium series | Low series | Smallest population(a) | Largest population(b) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 7,867,052 | 7,867,052 | 7,867,052 | 7,867,052 | 7,867,052 |
| 2018 | 8,005,754 | 8,001,204 | 7,996,562 | 7,995,562 | 8,006,754 |
| 2019 | 8,149,423 | 8,138,816 | 8,127,752 | 8,123,736 | 8,153,442 |
| 2020 | 8,294,204 | 8,275,674 | 8,256,276 | 8,247,693 | 8,302,799 |
| 2021 | 8,439,138 | 8,410,280 | 8,380,644 | 8,366,413 | 8,453,395 |
| 2022 | 8,583,901 | 8,542,528 | 8,500,873 | 8,479,396 | 8,605,428 |
| 2023 | 8,727,635 | 8,671,694 | 8,616,153 | 8,585,804 | 8,758,079 |
| 2024 | 8,869,648 | 8,797,483 | 8,725,864 | 8,684,998 | 8,910,685 |
| 2025 | 9,009,904 | 8,919,389 | 8,830,329 | 8,777,276 | 9,063,248 |
| 2026 | 9,148,551 | 9,038,063 | 8,928,915 | 8,862,489 | 9,215,443 |
| 2027 | 9,285,419 | 9,152,348 | 9,021,826 | 8,940,332 | 9,367,623 |
| 2028 | 9,422,966 | 9,265,948 | 9,113,162 | 9,016,383 | 9,520,766 |
| 2029 | 9,560,495 | 9,378,639 | 9,203,155 | 9,090,883 | 9,674,160 |
| 2030 | 9,697,839 | 9,490,274 | 9,291,660 | 9,163,698 | 9,827,627 |
| 2031 | 9,834,882 | 9,600,745 | 9,378,568 | 9,234,731 | 9,981,038 |
| 2032 | 9,971,553 | 9,709,902 | 9,463,732 | 9,303,857 | 10,134,305 |
| 2033 | 10,107,789 | 9,817,706 | 9,547,126 | 9,371,062 | 10,287,348 |
| 2034 | 10,243,569 | 9,924,172 | 9,628,768 | 9,436,382 | 10,440,129 |
| 2035 | 10,378,915 | 10,029,352 | 9,708,727 | 9,499,897 | 10,592,654 |
| 2036 | 10,513,884 | 10,133,334 | 9,787,103 | 9,561,722 | 10,744,968 |
| 2037 | 10,648,698 | 10,236,245 | 9,864,036 | 9,622,009 | 10,897,274 |
| 2038 | 10,783,413 | 10,338,213 | 9,939,662 | 9,680,908 | 11,049,615 |
| 2039 | 10,918,088 | 10,439,335 | 10,014,090 | 9,738,536 | 11,202,039 |
| 2040 | 11,052,772 | 10,539,716 | 10,087,436 | 9,795,016 | 11,354,586 |
| 2041 | 11,187,546 | 10,639,457 | 10,159,807 | 9,850,466 | 11,507,327 |
| 2042 | 11,322,440 | 10,738,637 | 10,231,280 | 9,904,969 | 11,660,284 |
| 2043 | 11,457,541 | 10,837,343 | 10,301,937 | 9,958,613 | 11,813,539 |
| 2044 | 11,592,909 | 10,935,629 | 10,371,823 | 10,011,453 | 11,967,144 |
| 2045 | 11,728,610 | 11,033,558 | 10,440,980 | 10,063,534 | 12,121,166 |
| 2046 | 11,864,731 | 11,131,195 | 10,509,442 | 10,114,893 | 12,275,692 |
| 2047 | 12,001,381 | 11,228,604 | 10,577,235 | 10,165,563 | 12,430,831 |
| 2048 | 12,138,679 | 11,325,872 | 10,644,404 | 10,215,588 | 12,586,706 |
| 2049 | 12,276,740 | 11,423,064 | 10,710,966 | 10,264,984 | 12,743,440 |
| 2050 | 12,415,676 | 11,520,244 | 10,776,933 | 10,313,768 | 12,901,155 |
| 2051 | 12,555,631 | 11,617,490 | 10,842,339 | 10,361,973 | 13,060,004 |
| 2052 | 12,696,724 | 11,714,860 | 10,907,196 | 10,409,613 | 13,220,113 |
| 2053 | 12,839,042 | 11,812,422 | 10,971,536 | 10,456,719 | 13,381,579 |
| 2054 | 12,982,657 | 11,910,199 | 11,035,358 | 10,503,292 | 13,544,483 |
| 2055 | 13,127,611 | 12,008,209 | 11,098,662 | 10,549,336 | 13,708,872 |
| 2056 | 13,273,891 | 12,106,442 | 11,161,436 | 10,594,841 | 13,874,734 |
| 2057 | 13,421,490 | 12,204,867 | 11,223,661 | 10,639,793 | 14,042,066 |
| 2058 | 13,570,350 | 12,303,446 | 11,285,320 | 10,684,177 | 14,210,803 |
| 2059 | 13,720,413 | 12,402,111 | 11,346,379 | 10,727,965 | 14,380,888 |
| 2060 | 13,871,586 | 12,500,787 | 11,406,802 | 10,771,129 | 14,552,221 |
| 2061 | 14,023,776 | 12,599,377 | 11,466,545 | 10,813,631 | 14,724,700 |
| 2062 | 14,176,874 | 12,697,815 | 11,525,591 | 10,855,460 | 14,898,207 |
| 2063 | 14,330,734 | 12,795,986 | 11,583,875 | 10,896,557 | 15,072,583 |
| 2064 | 14,485,250 | 12,893,811 | 11,641,363 | 10,936,900 | 15,247,708 |
| 2065 | 14,640,272 | 12,991,223 | 11,698,033 | 10,976,475 | 15,423,426 |
| 2066 | 14,795,708 | 13,088,136 | 11,753,840 | 11,015,243 | 15,599,631 |
Projected population, New South Wales
["","High series","Medium series","Low series","Smallest population(a)","Largest population(b)"]
[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[7867052],[8005754],[8149423],[8294204],[8439138],[8583901],[8727635],[8869648],[9009904],[9148551],[9285419],[9422966],[9560495],[9697839],[9834882],[9971553],[10107789],[10243569],[10378915],[10513884],[10648698],[10783413],[10918088],[11052772],[11187546],[11322440],[11457541],[11592909],[11728610],[11864731],[12001381],[12138679],[12276740],[12415676],[12555631],[12696724],[12839042],[12982657],[13127611],[13273891],[13421490],[13570350],[13720413],[13871586],[14023776],[14176874],[14330734],[14485250],[14640272],[14795708]],[[7867052],[8001204],[8138816],[8275674],[8410280],[8542528],[8671694],[8797483],[8919389],[9038063],[9152348],[9265948],[9378639],[9490274],[9600745],[9709902],[9817706],[9924172],[10029352],[10133334],[10236245],[10338213],[10439335],[10539716],[10639457],[10738637],[10837343],[10935629],[11033558],[11131195],[11228604],[11325872],[11423064],[11520244],[11617490],[11714860],[11812422],[11910199],[12008209],[12106442],[12204867],[12303446],[12402111],[12500787],[12599377],[12697815],[12795986],[12893811],[12991223],[13088136]],[[7867052],[7996562],[8127752],[8256276],[8380644],[8500873],[8616153],[8725864],[8830329],[8928915],[9021826],[9113162],[9203155],[9291660],[9378568],[9463732],[9547126],[9628768],[9708727],[9787103],[9864036],[9939662],[10014090],[10087436],[10159807],[10231280],[10301937],[10371823],[10440980],[10509442],[10577235],[10644404],[10710966],[10776933],[10842339],[10907196],[10971536],[11035358],[11098662],[11161436],[11223661],[11285320],[11346379],[11406802],[11466545],[11525591],[11583875],[11641363],[11698033],[11753840]],[[7867052],[7995562],[8123736],[8247693],[8366413],[8479396],[8585804],[8684998],[8777276],[8862489],[8940332],[9016383],[9090883],[9163698],[9234731],[9303857],[9371062],[9436382],[9499897],[9561722],[9622009],[9680908],[9738536],[9795016],[9850466],[9904969],[9958613],[10011453],[10063534],[10114893],[10165563],[10215588],[10264984],[10313768],[10361973],[10409613],[10456719],[10503292],[10549336],[10594841],[10639793],[10684177],[10727965],[10771129],[10813631],[10855460],[10896557],[10936900],[10976475],[11015243]],[[7867052],[8006754],[8153442],[8302799],[8453395],[8605428],[8758079],[8910685],[9063248],[9215443],[9367623],[9520766],[9674160],[9827627],[9981038],[10134305],[10287348],[10440129],[10592654],[10744968],[10897274],[11049615],[11202039],[11354586],[11507327],[11660284],[11813539],[11967144],[12121166],[12275692],[12430831],[12586706],[12743440],[12901155],[13060004],[13220113],[13381579],[13544483],[13708872],[13874734],[14042066],[14210803],[14380888],[14552221],[14724700],[14898207],[15072583],[15247708],[15423426],[15599631]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"","axis_min":"7000000","axis_max":"16000000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]The largest projected population for New South Wales is obtained by combining small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because New South Wales experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for New South Wales is obtained by combining large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.
The declining natural increase in the medium and low assumption series is due to the lower migration assumptions rather than the lower fertility rate assumption. This is because the fertility rate is applied to a smaller population, resulting in less births.
| High series | Medium series | Low series | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 44,737 | 44,737 | 44,737 |
| 2018 | 49,131 | 47,987 | 46,751 |
| 2019 | 51,723 | 49,531 | 47,357 |
| 2020 | 54,302 | 51,020 | 47,826 |
| 2021 | 57,072 | 52,585 | 48,320 |
| 2022 | 59,517 | 53,610 | 48,199 |
| 2023 | 61,812 | 54,412 | 47,842 |
| 2024 | 63,875 | 54,962 | 47,194 |
| 2025 | 65,721 | 55,264 | 46,215 |
| 2026 | 67,349 | 55,289 | 44,946 |
| 2027 | 68,768 | 54,885 | 43,211 |
| 2028 | 69,447 | 54,200 | 41,636 |
| 2029 | 69,429 | 53,291 | 40,293 |
| 2030 | 69,244 | 52,235 | 38,805 |
| 2031 | 68,943 | 51,071 | 37,208 |
| 2032 | 68,571 | 49,757 | 35,464 |
| 2033 | 68,136 | 48,404 | 33,694 |
| 2034 | 67,680 | 47,066 | 31,942 |
| 2035 | 67,246 | 45,780 | 30,259 |
| 2036 | 66,869 | 44,582 | 28,676 |
| 2037 | 66,714 | 43,511 | 27,233 |
| 2038 | 66,615 | 42,568 | 25,926 |
| 2039 | 66,575 | 41,722 | 24,728 |
| 2040 | 66,584 | 40,981 | 23,646 |
| 2041 | 66,674 | 40,341 | 22,671 |
| 2042 | 66,794 | 39,780 | 21,773 |
| 2043 | 67,001 | 39,306 | 20,957 |
| 2044 | 67,268 | 38,886 | 20,186 |
| 2045 | 67,601 | 38,529 | 19,457 |
| 2046 | 68,021 | 38,237 | 18,762 |
| 2047 | 68,550 | 38,009 | 18,093 |
| 2048 | 69,198 | 37,868 | 17,469 |
| 2049 | 69,961 | 37,792 | 16,862 |
| 2050 | 70,836 | 37,780 | 16,267 |
| 2051 | 71,855 | 37,846 | 15,706 |
| 2052 | 72,993 | 37,970 | 15,157 |
| 2053 | 74,218 | 38,162 | 14,640 |
| 2054 | 75,515 | 38,377 | 14,122 |
| 2055 | 76,854 | 38,610 | 13,604 |
| 2056 | 78,180 | 38,833 | 13,074 |
| 2057 | 79,499 | 39,025 | 12,525 |
| 2058 | 80,760 | 39,179 | 11,959 |
| 2059 | 81,963 | 39,265 | 11,359 |
| 2060 | 83,073 | 39,276 | 10,723 |
| 2061 | 84,090 | 39,190 | 10,043 |
| 2062 | 84,998 | 39,038 | 9,346 |
| 2063 | 85,760 | 38,771 | 8,584 |
| 2064 | 86,416 | 38,425 | 7,788 |
| 2065 | 86,922 | 38,012 | 6,970 |
| 2066 | 87,336 | 37,513 | 6,107 |
Projected natural increase, New South Wales
["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]
[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[44737],[49131],[51723],[54302],[57072],[59517],[61812],[63875],[65721],[67349],[68768],[69447],[69429],[69244],[68943],[68571],[68136],[67680],[67246],[66869],[66714],[66615],[66575],[66584],[66674],[66794],[67001],[67268],[67601],[68021],[68550],[69198],[69961],[70836],[71855],[72993],[74218],[75515],[76854],[78180],[79499],[80760],[81963],[83073],[84090],[84998],[85760],[86416],[86922],[87336]],[[44737],[47987],[49531],[51020],[52585],[53610],[54412],[54962],[55264],[55289],[54885],[54200],[53291],[52235],[51071],[49757],[48404],[47066],[45780],[44582],[43511],[42568],[41722],[40981],[40341],[39780],[39306],[38886],[38529],[38237],[38009],[37868],[37792],[37780],[37846],[37970],[38162],[38377],[38610],[38833],[39025],[39179],[39265],[39276],[39190],[39038],[38771],[38425],[38012],[37513]],[[44737],[46751],[47357],[47826],[48320],[48199],[47842],[47194],[46215],[44946],[43211],[41636],[40293],[38805],[37208],[35464],[33694],[31942],[30259],[28676],[27233],[25926],[24728],[23646],[22671],[21773],[20957],[20186],[19457],[18762],[18093],[17469],[16862],[16267],[15706],[15157],[14640],[14122],[13604],[13074],[12525],[11959],[11359],[10723],[10043],[9346],[8584],[7788],[6970],[6107]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"20000","axis_min":"0","axis_max":"100000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]In all series, the projected number of interstate departures exceeds interstate arrivals in New South Wales, resulting in a net interstate migration loss.
The median age is projected to increase:
The male population is projected to age faster than the female population under high life expectancy assumptions.
The proportion of:
| Age | ERP - 2017 (%) | High series - 2066 (%) | Medium series - 2066 (%) | Low series - 2066 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.25 | 1.29 | 1.18 | 1.04 |
| 1 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.17 | 1.04 |
| 2 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.17 | 1.04 |
| 3 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.17 | 1.04 |
| 4 | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.17 | 1.04 |
| 5 | 1.29 | 1.25 | 1.17 | 1.04 |
| 6 | 1.29 | 1.25 | 1.16 | 1.05 |
| 7 | 1.29 | 1.24 | 1.16 | 1.05 |
| 8 | 1.27 | 1.23 | 1.15 | 1.05 |
| 9 | 1.27 | 1.22 | 1.15 | 1.05 |
| 10 | 1.26 | 1.21 | 1.15 | 1.05 |
| 11 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.14 | 1.05 |
| 12 | 1.17 | 1.19 | 1.13 | 1.05 |
| 13 | 1.15 | 1.17 | 1.13 | 1.05 |
| 14 | 1.14 | 1.16 | 1.12 | 1.05 |
| 15 | 1.14 | 1.16 | 1.12 | 1.05 |
| 16 | 1.16 | 1.15 | 1.12 | 1.05 |
| 17 | 1.18 | 1.15 | 1.12 | 1.06 |
| 18 | 1.21 | 1.15 | 1.13 | 1.07 |
| 19 | 1.26 | 1.17 | 1.14 | 1.08 |
| 20 | 1.29 | 1.19 | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| 21 | 1.31 | 1.20 | 1.17 | 1.11 |
| 22 | 1.38 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.14 |
| 23 | 1.43 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.17 |
| 24 | 1.46 | 1.28 | 1.26 | 1.19 |
| 25 | 1.48 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.21 |
| 26 | 1.51 | 1.31 | 1.29 | 1.23 |
| 27 | 1.53 | 1.32 | 1.30 | 1.24 |
| 28 | 1.51 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.25 |
| 29 | 1.50 | 1.34 | 1.32 | 1.26 |
| 30 | 1.48 | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.27 |
| 31 | 1.49 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.28 |
| 32 | 1.48 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.29 |
| 33 | 1.48 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.30 |
| 34 | 1.48 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.30 |
| 35 | 1.44 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.31 |
| 36 | 1.40 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.31 |
| 37 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.31 |
| 38 | 1.30 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.31 |
| 39 | 1.28 | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.31 |
| 40 | 1.27 | 1.32 | 1.34 | 1.32 |
| 41 | 1.28 | 1.31 | 1.33 | 1.32 |
| 42 | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.32 | 1.32 |
| 43 | 1.32 | 1.27 | 1.31 | 1.32 |
| 44 | 1.34 | 1.25 | 1.30 | 1.31 |
| 45 | 1.38 | 1.24 | 1.29 | 1.31 |
| 46 | 1.38 | 1.22 | 1.27 | 1.30 |
| 47 | 1.28 | 1.20 | 1.25 | 1.29 |
| 48 | 1.26 | 1.17 | 1.24 | 1.28 |
| 49 | 1.23 | 1.14 | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| 50 | 1.20 | 1.16 | 1.23 | 1.28 |
| 51 | 1.21 | 1.14 | 1.21 | 1.26 |
| 52 | 1.21 | 1.13 | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| 53 | 1.27 | 1.13 | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| 54 | 1.29 | 1.12 | 1.19 | 1.24 |
| 55 | 1.28 | 1.11 | 1.18 | 1.23 |
| 56 | 1.27 | 1.11 | 1.17 | 1.23 |
| 57 | 1.23 | 1.09 | 1.15 | 1.21 |
| 58 | 1.19 | 1.08 | 1.15 | 1.20 |
| 59 | 1.19 | 1.07 | 1.13 | 1.19 |
| 60 | 1.15 | 1.04 | 1.10 | 1.16 |
| 61 | 1.13 | 1.02 | 1.08 | 1.13 |
| 62 | 1.09 | 1.00 | 1.06 | 1.12 |
| 63 | 1.06 | 0.99 | 1.05 | 1.11 |
| 64 | 1.05 | 0.99 | 1.05 | 1.11 |
| 65 | 1.01 | 0.99 | 1.05 | 1.12 |
| 66 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 1.05 | 1.12 |
| 67 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 1.04 | 1.12 |
| 68 | 0.94 | 0.96 | 1.03 | 1.11 |
| 69 | 0.96 | 0.95 | 1.02 | 1.10 |
| 70 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.09 |
| 71 | 0.83 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.09 |
| 72 | 0.78 | 0.91 | 0.97 | 1.07 |
| 73 | 0.74 | 0.88 | 0.94 | 1.03 |
| 74 | 0.66 | 0.86 | 0.92 | 1.01 |
| 75 | 0.64 | 0.84 | 0.90 | 0.99 |
| 76 | 0.60 | 0.82 | 0.87 | 0.97 |
| 77 | 0.57 | 0.78 | 0.83 | 0.92 |
| 78 | 0.53 | 0.76 | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| 79 | 0.50 | 0.72 | 0.76 | 0.84 |
| 80 | 0.47 | 0.70 | 0.73 | 0.81 |
| 81 | 0.44 | 0.67 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| 82 | 0.40 | 0.64 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| 83 | 0.36 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| 84 | 0.34 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 0.63 |
Population proportion(a), New South Wales
["Age","ERP - 2017","High series - 2066","Medium series - 2066","Low series - 2066"]
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[1.28],[1.26],[1.25],[1.25],[1.24],[1.23],[1.23],[1.21],[1.2],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1299999999999999],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1000000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.0700000000000001],[1.03],[1.01],[0.98999999999999999],[0.96999999999999997],[0.92000000000000004],[0.88],[0.83999999999999997],[0.81000000000000005],[0.77000000000000002],[0.72999999999999998],[0.68999999999999995],[0.63]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"5","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"0.25","axis_min":".25","axis_max":"1.75","axis_title":"%","precision":"2","table_units":"(%)","tooltip_units":"(%)","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]| Total fertility rate(a) | Male life expectancy at birth(b) | Female life expectancy at birth(b) | Net overseas migration(a) | Net interstate migration(a) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High series | 1.85 | 88.4 | 89.5 | 79,480 | -18,000 |
| Medium series | 1.71 | 83.7 | 86.2 | 65,030 | 7,000 |
| Low series | 1.57 | 83.7 | 86.2 | 50,580 | -2,000 |
a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.
Victoria's population of 6.3 million is projected to:
Most of Victoria's growth is projected to occur in Greater Melbourne. Melbourne is projected to:
Projected growth rates for the rest of Victoria are smaller, with the population projected to have between 1.6 and 1.7 million by 2027.
| High series | Medium series | Low series | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 6,321,648 | 6,321,648 | 6,321,648 |
| 2018 | 6,471,149 | 6,465,890 | 6,461,000 |
| 2019 | 6,627,735 | 6,614,083 | 6,600,416 |
| 2020 | 6,786,318 | 6,760,752 | 6,735,207 |
| 2021 | 6,946,030 | 6,904,453 | 6,864,395 |
| 2022 | 7,106,675 | 7,045,656 | 6,987,616 |
| 2023 | 7,267,466 | 7,183,220 | 7,103,993 |
| 2024 | 7,428,286 | 7,317,283 | 7,213,345 |
| 2025 | 7,588,660 | 7,447,358 | 7,315,497 |
| 2026 | 7,748,714 | 7,573,040 | 7,410,230 |
| 2027 | 7,908,342 | 7,694,223 | 7,497,244 |
| 2028 | 8,069,054 | 7,814,968 | 7,582,866 |
| 2029 | 8,230,290 | 7,935,141 | 7,667,303 |
| 2030 | 8,391,885 | 8,054,587 | 7,750,410 |
| 2031 | 8,553,689 | 8,173,184 | 7,832,081 |
| 2032 | 8,715,604 | 8,290,777 | 7,912,179 |
| 2033 | 8,877,544 | 8,407,316 | 7,990,673 |
| 2034 | 9,039,472 | 8,522,802 | 8,067,584 |
| 2035 | 9,201,379 | 8,637,270 | 8,142,970 |
| 2036 | 9,363,303 | 8,750,793 | 8,216,930 |
| 2037 | 9,525,408 | 8,863,485 | 8,289,603 |
| 2038 | 9,687,745 | 8,975,448 | 8,361,111 |
| 2039 | 9,850,350 | 9,086,783 | 8,431,580 |
| 2040 | 10,013,264 | 9,197,584 | 8,501,121 |
| 2041 | 10,176,547 | 9,307,952 | 8,569,853 |
| 2042 | 10,340,228 | 9,417,962 | 8,637,861 |
| 2043 | 10,504,366 | 9,527,694 | 8,705,233 |
| 2044 | 10,669,000 | 9,637,195 | 8,772,016 |
| 2045 | 10,834,179 | 9,746,507 | 8,838,242 |
| 2046 | 10,999,948 | 9,855,667 | 8,903,932 |
| 2047 | 11,166,374 | 9,964,707 | 8,969,094 |
| 2048 | 11,333,540 | 10,073,666 | 9,033,732 |
| 2049 | 11,501,522 | 10,182,576 | 9,097,838 |
| 2050 | 11,670,412 | 10,291,464 | 9,161,399 |
| 2051 | 11,840,316 | 10,400,369 | 9,224,408 |
| 2052 | 12,011,328 | 10,509,320 | 9,286,858 |
| 2053 | 12,183,519 | 10,618,356 | 9,348,747 |
| 2054 | 12,356,961 | 10,727,477 | 9,410,051 |
| 2055 | 12,531,694 | 10,836,680 | 9,470,748 |
| 2056 | 12,707,708 | 10,945,956 | 9,530,822 |
| 2057 | 12,885,005 | 11,055,266 | 9,590,244 |
| 2058 | 13,063,537 | 11,164,560 | 9,648,984 |
| 2059 | 13,243,239 | 11,273,801 | 9,707,035 |
| 2060 | 13,424,035 | 11,382,901 | 9,764,348 |
| 2061 | 13,605,819 | 11,491,788 | 9,820,896 |
| 2062 | 13,788,450 | 11,600,373 | 9,876,644 |
| 2063 | 13,971,797 | 11,708,580 | 9,931,566 |
| 2064 | 14,155,732 | 11,816,319 | 9,985,628 |
| 2065 | 14,340,112 | 11,923,536 | 10,038,816 |
| 2066 | 14,524,837 | 12,030,153 | 10,091,101 |
Projected population, Victoria
["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]
[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[6321648],[6471149],[6627735],[6786318],[6946030],[7106675],[7267466],[7428286],[7588660],[7748714],[7908342],[8069054],[8230290],[8391885],[8553689],[8715604],[8877544],[9039472],[9201379],[9363303],[9525408],[9687745],[9850350],[10013264],[10176547],[10340228],[10504366],[10669000],[10834179],[10999948],[11166374],[11333540],[11501522],[11670412],[11840316],[12011328],[12183519],[12356961],[12531694],[12707708],[12885005],[13063537],[13243239],[13424035],[13605819],[13788450],[13971797],[14155732],[14340112],[14524837]],[[6321648],[6465890],[6614083],[6760752],[6904453],[7045656],[7183220],[7317283],[7447358],[7573040],[7694223],[7814968],[7935141],[8054587],[8173184],[8290777],[8407316],[8522802],[8637270],[8750793],[8863485],[8975448],[9086783],[9197584],[9307952],[9417962],[9527694],[9637195],[9746507],[9855667],[9964707],[10073666],[10182576],[10291464],[10400369],[10509320],[10618356],[10727477],[10836680],[10945956],[11055266],[11164560],[11273801],[11382901],[11491788],[11600373],[11708580],[11816319],[11923536],[12030153]],[[6321648],[6461000],[6600416],[6735207],[6864395],[6987616],[7103993],[7213345],[7315497],[7410230],[7497244],[7582866],[7667303],[7750410],[7832081],[7912179],[7990673],[8067584],[8142970],[8216930],[8289603],[8361111],[8431580],[8501121],[8569853],[8637861],[8705233],[8772016],[8838242],[8903932],[8969094],[9033732],[9097838],[9161399],[9224408],[9286858],[9348747],[9410051],[9470748],[9530822],[9590244],[9648984],[9707035],[9764348],[9820896],[9876644],[9931566],[9985628],[10038816],[10091101]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"2000000","axis_min":"6000000","axis_max":"16000000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]| High series | Medium series | Low series | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 38,998 | 38,998 | 38,998 |
| 2018 | 42,069 | 41,185 | 40,170 |
| 2019 | 44,602 | 42,858 | 41,063 |
| 2020 | 47,147 | 44,440 | 41,769 |
| 2021 | 49,820 | 46,020 | 42,397 |
| 2022 | 52,269 | 47,175 | 42,541 |
| 2023 | 54,581 | 48,103 | 42,356 |
| 2024 | 56,745 | 48,782 | 41,864 |
| 2025 | 58,722 | 49,215 | 41,085 |
| 2026 | 60,505 | 49,381 | 39,975 |
| 2027 | 62,153 | 49,158 | 38,439 |
| 2028 | 63,237 | 48,720 | 37,047 |
| 2029 | 63,761 | 48,148 | 35,862 |
| 2030 | 64,120 | 47,421 | 34,532 |
| 2031 | 64,329 | 46,572 | 33,096 |
| 2032 | 64,440 | 45,568 | 31,523 |
| 2033 | 64,465 | 44,514 | 29,919 |
| 2034 | 64,453 | 43,461 | 28,336 |
| 2035 | 64,432 | 42,443 | 26,811 |
| 2036 | 64,449 | 41,498 | 25,385 |
| 2037 | 64,630 | 40,667 | 24,098 |
| 2038 | 64,862 | 39,938 | 22,933 |
| 2039 | 65,130 | 39,310 | 21,894 |
| 2040 | 65,439 | 38,776 | 20,966 |
| 2041 | 65,808 | 38,343 | 20,157 |
| 2042 | 66,206 | 37,985 | 19,433 |
| 2043 | 66,663 | 37,707 | 18,797 |
| 2044 | 67,159 | 37,476 | 18,208 |
| 2045 | 67,704 | 37,287 | 17,651 |
| 2046 | 68,294 | 37,135 | 17,115 |
| 2047 | 68,951 | 37,015 | 16,587 |
| 2048 | 69,691 | 36,934 | 16,063 |
| 2049 | 70,507 | 36,885 | 15,531 |
| 2050 | 71,415 | 36,863 | 14,986 |
| 2051 | 72,429 | 36,880 | 14,434 |
| 2052 | 73,537 | 36,926 | 13,875 |
| 2053 | 74,716 | 37,011 | 13,314 |
| 2054 | 75,967 | 37,096 | 12,729 |
| 2055 | 77,258 | 37,178 | 12,122 |
| 2056 | 78,539 | 37,251 | 11,499 |
| 2057 | 79,822 | 37,285 | 10,847 |
| 2058 | 81,057 | 37,269 | 10,165 |
| 2059 | 82,227 | 37,216 | 9,476 |
| 2060 | 83,321 | 37,075 | 8,738 |
| 2061 | 84,309 | 36,862 | 7,973 |
| 2062 | 85,156 | 36,560 | 7,173 |
| 2063 | 85,872 | 36,182 | 6,347 |
| 2064 | 86,460 | 35,714 | 5,487 |
| 2065 | 86,905 | 35,192 | 4,613 |
| 2066 | 87,250 | 34,592 | 3,710 |
Projected natural increase, Victoria
["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]
[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[38998],[42069],[44602],[47147],[49820],[52269],[54581],[56745],[58722],[60505],[62153],[63237],[63761],[64120],[64329],[64440],[64465],[64453],[64432],[64449],[64630],[64862],[65130],[65439],[65808],[66206],[66663],[67159],[67704],[68294],[68951],[69691],[70507],[71415],[72429],[73537],[74716],[75967],[77258],[78539],[79822],[81057],[82227],[83321],[84309],[85156],[85872],[86460],[86905],[87250]],[[38998],[41185],[42858],[44440],[46020],[47175],[48103],[48782],[49215],[49381],[49158],[48720],[48148],[47421],[46572],[45568],[44514],[43461],[42443],[41498],[40667],[39938],[39310],[38776],[38343],[37985],[37707],[37476],[37287],[37135],[37015],[36934],[36885],[36863],[36880],[36926],[37011],[37096],[37178],[37251],[37285],[37269],[37216],[37075],[36862],[36560],[36182],[35714],[35192],[34592]],[[38998],[40170],[41063],[41769],[42397],[42541],[42356],[41864],[41085],[39975],[38439],[37047],[35862],[34532],[33096],[31523],[29919],[28336],[26811],[25385],[24098],[22933],[21894],[20966],[20157],[19433],[18797],[18208],[17651],[17115],[16587],[16063],[15531],[14986],[14434],[13875],[13314],[12729],[12122],[11499],[10847],[10165],[9476],[8738],[7973],[7173],[6347],[5487],[4613],[3710]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"","axis_min":"0","axis_max":"100000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]The median age for Victoria is projected to increase:
The proportion of:
| Age | ERP - 2017 (%) | High series - 2066 (%) | Medium series - 2066 (%) | Low series - 2066 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.24 | 1.25 | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| 1 | 1.32 | 1.24 | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| 2 | 1.29 | 1.24 | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| 3 | 1.28 | 1.23 | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| 4 | 1.30 | 1.23 | 1.14 | 1.01 |
| 5 | 1.27 | 1.23 | 1.14 | 1.01 |
| 6 | 1.26 | 1.22 | 1.14 | 1.02 |
| 7 | 1.26 | 1.21 | 1.13 | 1.02 |
| 8 | 1.24 | 1.20 | 1.13 | 1.02 |
| 9 | 1.23 | 1.19 | 1.13 | 1.02 |
| 10 | 1.22 | 1.18 | 1.12 | 1.03 |
| 11 | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.12 | 1.03 |
| 12 | 1.13 | 1.16 | 1.11 | 1.03 |
| 13 | 1.12 | 1.15 | 1.11 | 1.03 |
| 14 | 1.11 | 1.15 | 1.11 | 1.03 |
| 15 | 1.10 | 1.14 | 1.11 | 1.04 |
| 16 | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.11 | 1.04 |
| 17 | 1.16 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.05 |
| 18 | 1.22 | 1.16 | 1.14 | 1.08 |
| 19 | 1.30 | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.11 |
| 20 | 1.37 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.14 |
| 21 | 1.41 | 1.24 | 1.22 | 1.16 |
| 22 | 1.49 | 1.26 | 1.24 | 1.18 |
| 23 | 1.55 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.21 |
| 24 | 1.55 | 1.32 | 1.30 | 1.23 |
| 25 | 1.55 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.24 |
| 26 | 1.58 | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| 27 | 1.61 | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.26 |
| 28 | 1.58 | 1.36 | 1.34 | 1.27 |
| 29 | 1.59 | 1.37 | 1.35 | 1.28 |
| 30 | 1.57 | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.28 |
| 31 | 1.58 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.29 |
| 32 | 1.56 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.30 |
| 33 | 1.54 | 1.39 | 1.37 | 1.30 |
| 34 | 1.52 | 1.39 | 1.37 | 1.31 |
| 35 | 1.48 | 1.39 | 1.37 | 1.32 |
| 36 | 1.44 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.32 |
| 37 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.32 |
| 38 | 1.33 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.32 |
| 39 | 1.30 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.32 |
| 40 | 1.28 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.33 |
| 41 | 1.29 | 1.33 | 1.35 | 1.33 |
| 42 | 1.30 | 1.32 | 1.34 | 1.33 |
| 43 | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 44 | 1.34 | 1.28 | 1.32 | 1.33 |
| 45 | 1.39 | 1.26 | 1.31 | 1.32 |
| 46 | 1.41 | 1.24 | 1.29 | 1.31 |
| 47 | 1.33 | 1.22 | 1.28 | 1.30 |
| 48 | 1.31 | 1.20 | 1.26 | 1.29 |
| 49 | 1.27 | 1.16 | 1.22 | 1.26 |
| 50 | 1.21 | 1.19 | 1.25 | 1.30 |
| 51 | 1.22 | 1.16 | 1.23 | 1.27 |
| 52 | 1.21 | 1.15 | 1.21 | 1.26 |
| 53 | 1.24 | 1.15 | 1.21 | 1.26 |
| 54 | 1.24 | 1.13 | 1.19 | 1.24 |
| 55 | 1.23 | 1.12 | 1.18 | 1.22 |
| 56 | 1.22 | 1.11 | 1.17 | 1.22 |
| 57 | 1.18 | 1.10 | 1.15 | 1.20 |
| 58 | 1.16 | 1.09 | 1.14 | 1.19 |
| 59 | 1.13 | 1.07 | 1.13 | 1.18 |
| 60 | 1.10 | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1.15 |
| 61 | 1.09 | 1.02 | 1.07 | 1.11 |
| 62 | 1.04 | 1.00 | 1.06 | 1.11 |
| 63 | 1.01 | 0.99 | 1.04 | 1.10 |
| 64 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 1.04 | 1.09 |
| 65 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 1.04 | 1.11 |
| 66 | 0.96 | 0.97 | 1.04 | 1.11 |
| 67 | 0.93 | 0.96 | 1.03 | 1.11 |
| 68 | 0.90 | 0.95 | 1.02 | 1.10 |
| 69 | 0.91 | 0.94 | 1.01 | 1.10 |
| 70 | 0.93 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.09 |
| 71 | 0.78 | 0.92 | 0.99 | 1.09 |
| 72 | 0.73 | 0.89 | 0.97 | 1.07 |
| 73 | 0.69 | 0.86 | 0.93 | 1.03 |
| 74 | 0.62 | 0.83 | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| 75 | 0.62 | 0.82 | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| 76 | 0.57 | 0.80 | 0.86 | 0.97 |
| 77 | 0.54 | 0.76 | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| 78 | 0.51 | 0.74 | 0.79 | 0.89 |
| 79 | 0.48 | 0.70 | 0.75 | 0.85 |
| 80 | 0.45 | 0.68 | 0.72 | 0.82 |
| 81 | 0.42 | 0.65 | 0.68 | 0.78 |
| 82 | 0.38 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| 83 | 0.36 | 0.58 | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| 84 | 0.33 | 0.54 | 0.55 | 0.63 |
Population proportion(a), Victoria
["Age","ERP - 2017","High series - 2066","Medium series - 2066","Low series - 2066"]
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00001],[1.3200000000000001],[1.3200000000000001],[1.3200000000000001],[1.3300000000000001],[1.3300000000000001],[1.3300000000000001],[1.3300000000000001],[1.3300000000000001],[1.3200000000000001],[1.3100000000000001],[1.3],[1.29],[1.26],[1.3],[1.27],[1.26],[1.26],[1.24],[1.22],[1.22],[1.2],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1799999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1000000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1000000000000001],[1.1000000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.0700000000000001],[1.03],[1],[0.98999999999999999],[0.96999999999999997],[0.92000000000000004],[0.89000000000000001],[0.84999999999999998],[0.81999999999999995],[0.78000000000000003],[0.72999999999999998],[0.68999999999999995],[0.63]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"5","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"0.25","axis_min":".25","axis_max":"1.75","axis_title":"%","precision":"2","table_units":"(%)","tooltip_units":"(%)","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]| Total fertility rate(a) | Male life expectancy at birth(b) | Female life expectancy at birth(b) | Net overseas migration(a) | Net interstate migration(a) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High series | 2.03 | 87.3 | 89.1 | 45,650 | 20,000 |
| Medium series | 1.88 | 82.7 | 85.9 | 37,350 | 11,000 |
| Low series | 1.72 | 82.7 | 85.9 | 29,050 | 6,000 |
a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.
Queensland's population of 4.9 million is projected to:
More of the projected growth occurs in Brisbane than in the rest of the state. Brisbane is projected to:
The rest of Queensland is projected to grow from 2.5 million to between 2.8 million and 2.9 million in 2027.
| High series | Medium series | Low series | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 4,929,152 | 4,929,152 | 4,929,152 |
| 2018 | 5,016,470 | 5,013,437 | 5,010,811 |
| 2019 | 5,109,001 | 5,100,713 | 5,093,659 |
| 2020 | 5,204,072 | 5,188,076 | 5,174,863 |
| 2021 | 5,301,435 | 5,275,645 | 5,254,455 |
| 2022 | 5,401,455 | 5,363,276 | 5,332,085 |
| 2023 | 5,503,332 | 5,449,926 | 5,406,783 |
| 2024 | 5,607,533 | 5,536,108 | 5,478,824 |
| 2025 | 5,713,343 | 5,621,537 | 5,548,004 |
| 2026 | 5,821,362 | 5,705,729 | 5,613,620 |
| 2027 | 5,931,090 | 5,788,778 | 5,675,861 |
| 2028 | 6,041,504 | 5,871,437 | 5,737,035 |
| 2029 | 6,152,144 | 5,953,542 | 5,797,272 |
| 2030 | 6,262,932 | 6,035,035 | 5,856,520 |
| 2031 | 6,373,807 | 6,115,868 | 5,914,735 |
| 2032 | 6,484,745 | 6,195,969 | 5,971,857 |
| 2033 | 6,595,708 | 6,275,335 | 6,027,893 |
| 2034 | 6,706,671 | 6,353,975 | 6,082,867 |
| 2035 | 6,817,648 | 6,431,920 | 6,136,825 |
| 2036 | 6,928,650 | 6,509,223 | 6,189,831 |
| 2037 | 7,039,787 | 6,585,944 | 6,241,962 |
| 2038 | 7,151,066 | 6,662,145 | 6,293,289 |
| 2039 | 7,262,502 | 6,737,866 | 6,343,863 |
| 2040 | 7,374,096 | 6,813,147 | 6,393,732 |
| 2041 | 7,485,865 | 6,888,033 | 6,442,946 |
| 2042 | 7,597,813 | 6,962,545 | 6,491,526 |
| 2043 | 7,709,972 | 7,036,715 | 6,539,501 |
| 2044 | 7,822,367 | 7,110,565 | 6,586,885 |
| 2045 | 7,935,049 | 7,184,128 | 6,633,696 |
| 2046 | 8,048,070 | 7,257,440 | 6,679,951 |
| 2047 | 8,161,493 | 7,330,538 | 6,725,657 |
| 2048 | 8,275,415 | 7,403,472 | 6,770,833 |
| 2049 | 8,389,923 | 7,476,286 | 6,815,489 |
| 2050 | 8,505,102 | 7,549,025 | 6,859,636 |
| 2051 | 8,621,050 | 7,621,745 | 6,903,299 |
| 2052 | 8,737,854 | 7,694,479 | 6,946,487 |
| 2053 | 8,855,572 | 7,767,271 | 6,989,222 |
| 2054 | 8,974,254 | 7,840,145 | 7,031,516 |
| 2055 | 9,093,940 | 7,913,117 | 7,073,378 |
| 2056 | 9,214,613 | 7,986,191 | 7,114,817 |
| 2057 | 9,336,286 | 8,059,362 | 7,155,842 |
| 2058 | 9,458,922 | 8,132,620 | 7,196,457 |
| 2059 | 9,582,485 | 8,205,954 | 7,236,684 |
| 2060 | 9,706,937 | 8,279,328 | 7,276,515 |
| 2061 | 9,832,215 | 8,352,712 | 7,315,955 |
| 2062 | 9,958,252 | 8,426,062 | 7,355,000 |
| 2063 | 10,084,972 | 8,499,338 | 7,393,644 |
| 2064 | 10,212,309 | 8,572,506 | 7,431,881 |
| 2065 | 10,340,182 | 8,645,538 | 7,469,716 |
| 2066 | 10,468,533 | 8,718,389 | 7,507,130 |
Projected population, Queensland
["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]
[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[4929152],[5016470],[5109001],[5204072],[5301435],[5401455],[5503332],[5607533],[5713343],[5821362],[5931090],[6041504],[6152144],[6262932],[6373807],[6484745],[6595708],[6706671],[6817648],[6928650],[7039787],[7151066],[7262502],[7374096],[7485865],[7597813],[7709972],[7822367],[7935049],[8048070],[8161493],[8275415],[8389923],[8505102],[8621050],[8737854],[8855572],[8974254],[9093940],[9214613],[9336286],[9458922],[9582485],[9706937],[9832215],[9958252],[10084972],[10212309],[10340182],[10468533]],[[4929152],[5013437],[5100713],[5188076],[5275645],[5363276],[5449926],[5536108],[5621537],[5705729],[5788778],[5871437],[5953542],[6035035],[6115868],[6195969],[6275335],[6353975],[6431920],[6509223],[6585944],[6662145],[6737866],[6813147],[6888033],[6962545],[7036715],[7110565],[7184128],[7257440],[7330538],[7403472],[7476286],[7549025],[7621745],[7694479],[7767271],[7840145],[7913117],[7986191],[8059362],[8132620],[8205954],[8279328],[8352712],[8426062],[8499338],[8572506],[8645538],[8718389]],[[4929152],[5010811],[5093659],[5174863],[5254455],[5332085],[5406783],[5478824],[5548004],[5613620],[5675861],[5737035],[5797272],[5856520],[5914735],[5971857],[6027893],[6082867],[6136825],[6189831],[6241962],[6293289],[6343863],[6393732],[6442946],[6491526],[6539501],[6586885],[6633696],[6679951],[6725657],[6770833],[6815489],[6859636],[6903299],[6946487],[6989222],[7031516],[7073378],[7114817],[7155842],[7196457],[7236684],[7276515],[7315955],[7355000],[7393644],[7431881],[7469716],[7507130]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"2000000","axis_min":"0","axis_max":"12000000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]| High series | Medium series | Low series | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 30,607 | 30,607 | 30,607 |
| 2018 | 33,124 | 32,464 | 31,711 |
| 2019 | 34,269 | 32,982 | 31,661 |
| 2020 | 35,473 | 33,495 | 31,566 |
| 2021 | 36,850 | 34,081 | 31,483 |
| 2022 | 38,120 | 34,431 | 31,130 |
| 2023 | 39,368 | 34,697 | 30,647 |
| 2024 | 40,592 | 34,860 | 30,007 |
| 2025 | 41,777 | 34,940 | 29,236 |
| 2026 | 42,923 | 34,922 | 28,335 |
| 2027 | 44,078 | 34,699 | 27,191 |
| 2028 | 44,764 | 34,309 | 26,124 |
| 2029 | 44,990 | 33,755 | 25,187 |
| 2030 | 45,138 | 33,143 | 24,198 |
| 2031 | 45,225 | 32,483 | 23,165 |
| 2032 | 45,288 | 31,751 | 22,072 |
| 2033 | 45,313 | 31,016 | 20,986 |
| 2034 | 45,313 | 30,290 | 19,924 |
| 2035 | 45,327 | 29,595 | 18,908 |
| 2036 | 45,352 | 28,953 | 17,956 |
| 2037 | 45,487 | 28,371 | 17,081 |
| 2038 | 45,629 | 27,851 | 16,277 |
| 2039 | 45,786 | 27,371 | 15,524 |
| 2040 | 45,944 | 26,931 | 14,819 |
| 2041 | 46,119 | 26,536 | 14,164 |
| 2042 | 46,298 | 26,162 | 13,530 |
| 2043 | 46,509 | 25,820 | 12,925 |
| 2044 | 46,745 | 25,500 | 12,334 |
| 2045 | 47,032 | 25,213 | 11,761 |
| 2046 | 47,371 | 24,962 | 11,205 |
| 2047 | 47,773 | 24,748 | 10,656 |
| 2048 | 48,272 | 24,584 | 10,126 |
| 2049 | 48,858 | 24,464 | 9,606 |
| 2050 | 49,529 | 24,389 | 9,097 |
| 2051 | 50,298 | 24,370 | 8,613 |
| 2052 | 51,154 | 24,384 | 8,138 |
| 2053 | 52,068 | 24,442 | 7,685 |
| 2054 | 53,032 | 24,524 | 7,244 |
| 2055 | 54,036 | 24,622 | 6,812 |
| 2056 | 55,023 | 24,724 | 6,389 |
| 2057 | 56,023 | 24,821 | 5,975 |
| 2058 | 56,986 | 24,908 | 5,565 |
| 2059 | 57,913 | 24,984 | 5,177 |
| 2060 | 58,802 | 25,024 | 4,781 |
| 2061 | 59,628 | 25,034 | 4,390 |
| 2062 | 60,387 | 25,000 | 3,995 |
| 2063 | 61,070 | 24,926 | 3,594 |
| 2064 | 61,687 | 24,818 | 3,187 |
| 2065 | 62,223 | 24,682 | 2,785 |
| 2066 | 62,701 | 24,501 | 2,364 |
Projected natural increase, Queensland
["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]
[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[30607],[33124],[34269],[35473],[36850],[38120],[39368],[40592],[41777],[42923],[44078],[44764],[44990],[45138],[45225],[45288],[45313],[45313],[45327],[45352],[45487],[45629],[45786],[45944],[46119],[46298],[46509],[46745],[47032],[47371],[47773],[48272],[48858],[49529],[50298],[51154],[52068],[53032],[54036],[55023],[56023],[56986],[57913],[58802],[59628],[60387],[61070],[61687],[62223],[62701]],[[30607],[32464],[32982],[33495],[34081],[34431],[34697],[34860],[34940],[34922],[34699],[34309],[33755],[33143],[32483],[31751],[31016],[30290],[29595],[28953],[28371],[27851],[27371],[26931],[26536],[26162],[25820],[25500],[25213],[24962],[24748],[24584],[24464],[24389],[24370],[24384],[24442],[24524],[24622],[24724],[24821],[24908],[24984],[25024],[25034],[25000],[24926],[24818],[24682],[24501]],[[30607],[31711],[31661],[31566],[31483],[31130],[30647],[30007],[29236],[28335],[27191],[26124],[25187],[24198],[23165],[22072],[20986],[19924],[18908],[17956],[17081],[16277],[15524],[14819],[14164],[13530],[12925],[12334],[11761],[11205],[10656],[10126],[9606],[9097],[8613],[8138],[7685],[7244],[6812],[6389],[5975],[5565],[5177],[4781],[4390],[3995],[3594],[3187],[2785],[2364]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"","axis_min":"0","axis_max":"70000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]The median age for Queensland is projected to increase:
The proportion of:
| Age | ERP - 2017 (%) | High series - 2066 (%) | Medium series - 2066 (%) | Low series - 2066 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.24 | 1.30 | 1.19 | 1.04 |
| 1 | 1.28 | 1.30 | 1.19 | 1.05 |
| 2 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.19 | 1.05 |
| 3 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.19 | 1.06 |
| 4 | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.06 |
| 5 | 1.33 | 1.29 | 1.20 | 1.07 |
| 6 | 1.34 | 1.29 | 1.20 | 1.08 |
| 7 | 1.37 | 1.29 | 1.20 | 1.08 |
| 8 | 1.36 | 1.28 | 1.20 | 1.09 |
| 9 | 1.37 | 1.28 | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| 10 | 1.35 | 1.27 | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| 11 | 1.32 | 1.26 | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| 12 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.20 | 1.11 |
| 13 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.20 | 1.11 |
| 14 | 1.22 | 1.24 | 1.20 | 1.12 |
| 15 | 1.24 | 1.23 | 1.20 | 1.12 |
| 16 | 1.27 | 1.23 | 1.20 | 1.13 |
| 17 | 1.26 | 1.22 | 1.19 | 1.13 |
| 18 | 1.25 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.13 |
| 19 | 1.28 | 1.24 | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| 20 | 1.31 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.17 |
| 21 | 1.36 | 1.26 | 1.24 | 1.18 |
| 22 | 1.41 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.19 |
| 23 | 1.44 | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.20 |
| 24 | 1.45 | 1.30 | 1.27 | 1.21 |
| 25 | 1.45 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.21 |
| 26 | 1.46 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.21 |
| 27 | 1.47 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.22 |
| 28 | 1.42 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.22 |
| 29 | 1.41 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.22 |
| 30 | 1.40 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.22 |
| 31 | 1.42 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.22 |
| 32 | 1.41 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.22 |
| 33 | 1.40 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.22 |
| 34 | 1.42 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.23 |
| 35 | 1.36 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.23 |
| 36 | 1.34 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.23 |
| 37 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.24 |
| 38 | 1.26 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.24 |
| 39 | 1.26 | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| 40 | 1.27 | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.26 |
| 41 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.28 | 1.27 |
| 42 | 1.30 | 1.25 | 1.28 | 1.27 |
| 43 | 1.36 | 1.24 | 1.27 | 1.28 |
| 44 | 1.39 | 1.23 | 1.27 | 1.28 |
| 45 | 1.43 | 1.21 | 1.26 | 1.28 |
| 46 | 1.45 | 1.20 | 1.25 | 1.27 |
| 47 | 1.36 | 1.18 | 1.24 | 1.27 |
| 48 | 1.32 | 1.16 | 1.22 | 1.26 |
| 49 | 1.28 | 1.12 | 1.19 | 1.24 |
| 50 | 1.26 | 1.15 | 1.22 | 1.27 |
| 51 | 1.24 | 1.13 | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| 52 | 1.24 | 1.13 | 1.19 | 1.24 |
| 53 | 1.29 | 1.13 | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| 54 | 1.29 | 1.12 | 1.18 | 1.24 |
| 55 | 1.29 | 1.11 | 1.18 | 1.23 |
| 56 | 1.27 | 1.11 | 1.17 | 1.23 |
| 57 | 1.22 | 1.10 | 1.16 | 1.21 |
| 58 | 1.19 | 1.09 | 1.15 | 1.21 |
| 59 | 1.17 | 1.08 | 1.14 | 1.19 |
| 60 | 1.13 | 1.05 | 1.11 | 1.16 |
| 61 | 1.11 | 1.02 | 1.08 | 1.13 |
| 62 | 1.07 | 1.01 | 1.06 | 1.12 |
| 63 | 1.04 | 0.99 | 1.05 | 1.11 |
| 64 | 1.04 | 0.98 | 1.04 | 1.11 |
| 65 | 1.02 | 0.99 | 1.05 | 1.12 |
| 66 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 1.04 | 1.11 |
| 67 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| 68 | 0.96 | 0.95 | 1.01 | 1.10 |
| 69 | 0.95 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.09 |
| 70 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.99 | 1.08 |
| 71 | 0.82 | 0.92 | 0.99 | 1.08 |
| 72 | 0.79 | 0.89 | 0.96 | 1.06 |
| 73 | 0.73 | 0.86 | 0.93 | 1.03 |
| 74 | 0.64 | 0.84 | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| 75 | 0.63 | 0.82 | 0.89 | 0.98 |
| 76 | 0.57 | 0.80 | 0.86 | 0.96 |
| 77 | 0.53 | 0.77 | 0.82 | 0.91 |
| 78 | 0.49 | 0.74 | 0.78 | 0.88 |
| 79 | 0.45 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.84 |
| 80 | 0.42 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.81 |
| 81 | 0.38 | 0.66 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| 82 | 0.34 | 0.63 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| 83 | 0.31 | 0.60 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| 84 | 0.29 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.63 |
Population proportion(a), Queensland
["Age","ERP - 2017","High series - 2066","Medium series - 2066","Low series - 2066"]
[["0","1","2","3","4","5","6","7","8","9","10","11","12","13","14","15","16","17","18","19","20","21","22","23","24","25","26","27","28","29","30","31","32","33","34","35","36","37","38","39","40","41","42","43","44","45","46","47","48","49","50","51","52","53","54","55","56","57","58","59","60","61","62","63","64","65","66","67","68","69","70","71","72","73","74","75","76","77","78","79","80","81","82","83","84"],[[1.24],[1.28],[1.29],[1.3],[1.3300000000000001],[1.3300000000000001],[1.3400000000000001],[1.3700000000000001],[1.3600000000000001],[1.3700000000000001],[1.3500000000000001],[1.3200000000000001],[1.27],[1.25],[1.22],[1.24],[1.27],[1.26],[1.25],[1.28],[1.3100000000000001],[1.3600000000000001],[1.4099999999999999],[1.4399999999999999],[1.45],[1.45],[1.46],[1.47],[1.4199999999999999],[1.4099999999999999],[1.3999999999999999],[1.4199999999999999],[1.4099999999999999],[1.3999999999999999],[1.4199999999999999],[1.3600000000000001],[1.3400000000000001],[1.3],[1.26],[1.26],[1.27],[1.29],[1.3],[1.3600000000000001],[1.3899999999999999],[1.4299999999999999],[1.45],[1.3600000000000001],[1.3200000000000001],[1.28],[1.26],[1.24],[1.24],[1.29],[1.29],[1.29],[1.27],[1.22],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1699999999999999],[1.1299999999999999],[1.1100000000000001],[1.0700000000000001],[1.04],[1.04],[1.02],[1],[0.97999999999999998],[0.95999999999999996],[0.94999999999999996],[0.96999999999999997],[0.81999999999999995],[0.79000000000000004],[0.72999999999999998],[0.64000000000000001],[0.63],[0.56999999999999995],[0.53000000000000003],[0.48999999999999999],[0.45000000000000001],[0.41999999999999998],[0.38],[0.34000000000000002],[0.31],[0.28999999999999998]],[[1.3],[1.3],[1.3],[1.3],[1.3],[1.29],[1.29],[1.29],[1.28],[1.28],[1.27],[1.26],[1.25],[1.25],[1.24],[1.23],[1.23],[1.22],[1.22],[1.24],[1.25],[1.26],[1.27],[1.29],[1.3],[1.3],[1.3],[1.3],[1.3],[1.3],[1.3],[1.3],[1.29],[1.29],[1.29],[1.29],[1.29],[1.29],[1.29],[1.28],[1.28],[1.27],[1.25],[1.24],[1.23],[1.21],[1.2],[1.1799999999999999],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1299999999999999],[1.1299999999999999],[1.1299999999999999],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1000000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.0800000000000001],[1.05],[1.02],[1.01],[0.98999999999999999],[0.97999999999999998],[0.98999999999999999],[0.97999999999999998],[0.95999999999999996],[0.94999999999999996],[0.93000000000000005],[0.92000000000000004],[0.92000000000000004],[0.89000000000000001],[0.85999999999999999],[0.83999999999999997],[0.81999999999999995],[0.80000000000000004],[0.77000000000000002],[0.73999999999999999],[0.70999999999999996],[0.68999999999999995],[0.66000000000000003],[0.63],[0.59999999999999998],[0.56000000000000005]],[[1.1899999999999999],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1899999999999999],[1.2],[1.2],[1.2],[1.2],[1.2],[1.2],[1.2],[1.2],[1.2],[1.2],[1.2],[1.2],[1.2],[1.1899999999999999],[1.2],[1.21],[1.23],[1.24],[1.25],[1.26],[1.27],[1.28],[1.28],[1.28],[1.28],[1.28],[1.28],[1.28],[1.28],[1.28],[1.28],[1.28],[1.28],[1.28],[1.29],[1.29],[1.29],[1.28],[1.28],[1.27],[1.27],[1.26],[1.25],[1.24],[1.22],[1.1899999999999999],[1.22],[1.2],[1.1899999999999999],[1.2],[1.1799999999999999],[1.1799999999999999],[1.1699999999999999],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1399999999999999],[1.1100000000000001],[1.0800000000000001],[1.0600000000000001],[1.05],[1.04],[1.05],[1.04],[1.03],[1.01],[1],[0.98999999999999999],[0.98999999999999999],[0.95999999999999996],[0.93000000000000005],[0.90000000000000002],[0.89000000000000001],[0.85999999999999999],[0.81999999999999995],[0.78000000000000003],[0.75],[0.72999999999999998],[0.68999999999999995],[0.65000000000000002],[0.62],[0.56000000000000005]],[[1.04],[1.05],[1.05],[1.0600000000000001],[1.0600000000000001],[1.0700000000000001],[1.0800000000000001],[1.0800000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.1000000000000001],[1.1000000000000001],[1.1000000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1299999999999999],[1.1299999999999999],[1.1299999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1699999999999999],[1.1799999999999999],[1.1899999999999999],[1.2],[1.21],[1.21],[1.21],[1.22],[1.22],[1.22],[1.22],[1.22],[1.22],[1.22],[1.23],[1.23],[1.23],[1.24],[1.24],[1.25],[1.26],[1.27],[1.27],[1.28],[1.28],[1.28],[1.27],[1.27],[1.26],[1.24],[1.27],[1.25],[1.24],[1.25],[1.24],[1.23],[1.23],[1.21],[1.21],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1299999999999999],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1000000000000001],[1.1000000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.0800000000000001],[1.0800000000000001],[1.0600000000000001],[1.03],[1],[0.97999999999999998],[0.95999999999999996],[0.91000000000000003],[0.88],[0.83999999999999997],[0.81000000000000005],[0.77000000000000002],[0.72999999999999998],[0.68999999999999995],[0.63]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"5","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"0.25","axis_min":".25","axis_max":"1.75","axis_title":"%","precision":"2","table_units":"(%)","tooltip_units":"(%)","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]| Total fertility rate(a) | Male life expectancy at birth(b) | Female life expectancy at birth(b) | Net overseas migration(a) | Net interstate migration(a) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High series | 1.91 | 87.6 | 89.1 | 15,680 | -7,000 |
| Medium series | 1.76 | 82.9 | 85.9 | 12,830 | -4,500 |
| Low series | 1.61 | 82.9 | 85.9 | 9,980 | -2,500 |
a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.
South Australia's population of 1.7 million people is projected to:
South Australia's growth is projected to be driven by growth in Adelaide. Adelaide is projected to increase from:
The rest of South Australia is projected to have very low growth, with an increase from 389,500 people in 2017 to between 389,900 and 406,900 people in 2027.
| High series | Medium series | Low series | Smallest population(a) | Largest population(b) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 1,723,671 | 1,723,671 | 1,723,671 | 1,723,671 | 1,723,671 |
| 2018 | 1,735,345 | 1,735,172 | 1,734,473 | 1,733,973 | 1,735,845 |
| 2019 | 1,748,100 | 1,747,363 | 1,746,054 | 1,744,546 | 1,749,609 |
| 2020 | 1,761,450 | 1,760,207 | 1,757,911 | 1,754,874 | 1,764,487 |
| 2021 | 1,775,348 | 1,773,127 | 1,769,947 | 1,764,858 | 1,780,440 |
| 2022 | 1,789,704 | 1,786,534 | 1,782,018 | 1,774,341 | 1,797,390 |
| 2023 | 1,804,430 | 1,799,773 | 1,794,003 | 1,783,195 | 1,815,260 |
| 2024 | 1,819,475 | 1,813,334 | 1,805,324 | 1,791,336 | 1,833,508 |
| 2025 | 1,834,783 | 1,826,655 | 1,816,441 | 1,798,726 | 1,852,579 |
| 2026 | 1,850,366 | 1,840,228 | 1,827,285 | 1,805,289 | 1,872,494 |
| 2027 | 1,866,249 | 1,853,452 | 1,837,791 | 1,810,958 | 1,893,285 |
| 2028 | 1,882,081 | 1,866,400 | 1,847,902 | 1,816,169 | 1,914,114 |
| 2029 | 1,897,766 | 1,879,057 | 1,857,672 | 1,820,976 | 1,934,878 |
| 2030 | 1,913,286 | 1,891,406 | 1,867,079 | 1,825,362 | 1,955,550 |
| 2031 | 1,928,631 | 1,903,436 | 1,876,112 | 1,829,320 | 1,976,117 |
| 2032 | 1,943,797 | 1,915,120 | 1,884,742 | 1,832,828 | 1,996,571 |
| 2033 | 1,958,777 | 1,926,457 | 1,892,966 | 1,835,887 | 2,016,899 |
| 2034 | 1,973,577 | 1,937,456 | 1,900,796 | 1,838,513 | 2,037,103 |
| 2035 | 1,988,199 | 1,948,130 | 1,908,245 | 1,840,724 | 2,057,185 |
| 2036 | 2,002,659 | 1,958,497 | 1,915,331 | 1,842,542 | 2,077,150 |
| 2037 | 2,017,004 | 1,968,586 | 1,922,082 | 1,843,999 | 2,097,044 |
| 2038 | 2,031,239 | 1,978,418 | 1,928,525 | 1,845,122 | 2,116,870 |
| 2039 | 2,045,371 | 1,988,013 | 1,934,678 | 1,845,933 | 2,136,632 |
| 2040 | 2,059,408 | 1,997,386 | 1,940,562 | 1,846,455 | 2,156,332 |
| 2041 | 2,073,358 | 2,006,559 | 1,946,195 | 1,846,710 | 2,175,979 |
| 2042 | 2,087,228 | 2,015,546 | 1,951,594 | 1,846,717 | 2,195,575 |
| 2043 | 2,101,032 | 2,024,365 | 1,956,773 | 1,846,494 | 2,215,131 |
| 2044 | 2,114,780 | 2,033,032 | 1,961,748 | 1,846,055 | 2,234,658 |
| 2045 | 2,128,489 | 2,041,561 | 1,966,530 | 1,845,413 | 2,254,173 |
| 2046 | 2,142,174 | 2,049,968 | 1,971,130 | 1,844,582 | 2,273,685 |
| 2047 | 2,155,854 | 2,058,267 | 1,975,556 | 1,843,571 | 2,293,218 |
| 2048 | 2,169,551 | 2,066,479 | 1,979,821 | 1,842,396 | 2,312,795 |
| 2049 | 2,183,284 | 2,074,618 | 1,983,931 | 1,841,067 | 2,332,438 |
| 2050 | 2,197,079 | 2,082,701 | 1,987,899 | 1,839,591 | 2,352,172 |
| 2051 | 2,210,960 | 2,090,747 | 1,991,735 | 1,837,982 | 2,372,023 |
| 2052 | 2,224,947 | 2,098,771 | 1,995,447 | 1,836,251 | 2,392,017 |
| 2053 | 2,239,060 | 2,106,792 | 1,999,053 | 1,834,413 | 2,412,174 |
| 2054 | 2,253,316 | 2,114,822 | 2,002,562 | 1,832,479 | 2,432,513 |
| 2055 | 2,267,730 | 2,122,875 | 2,005,985 | 1,830,462 | 2,453,052 |
| 2056 | 2,282,306 | 2,130,961 | 2,009,332 | 1,828,372 | 2,473,791 |
| 2057 | 2,297,053 | 2,139,087 | 2,012,613 | 1,826,219 | 2,494,741 |
| 2058 | 2,311,972 | 2,147,257 | 2,015,836 | 1,824,014 | 2,515,904 |
| 2059 | 2,327,063 | 2,155,472 | 2,019,007 | 1,821,768 | 2,537,274 |
| 2060 | 2,342,324 | 2,163,729 | 2,022,130 | 1,819,483 | 2,558,849 |
| 2061 | 2,357,747 | 2,172,021 | 2,025,207 | 1,817,165 | 2,580,619 |
| 2062 | 2,373,322 | 2,180,340 | 2,028,239 | 1,814,816 | 2,602,571 |
| 2063 | 2,389,032 | 2,188,678 | 2,031,220 | 1,812,433 | 2,624,683 |
| 2064 | 2,404,862 | 2,197,021 | 2,034,147 | 1,810,015 | 2,646,940 |
| 2065 | 2,420,795 | 2,205,361 | 2,037,019 | 1,807,561 | 2,669,315 |
| 2066 | 2,436,819 | 2,213,681 | 2,039,823 | 1,805,062 | 2,691,796 |
Projected population, South Australia
["","High series","Medium series","Low series","Smallest population(a)","Largest population(b)"]
[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[1723671],[1735345],[1748100],[1761450],[1775348],[1789704],[1804430],[1819475],[1834783],[1850366],[1866249],[1882081],[1897766],[1913286],[1928631],[1943797],[1958777],[1973577],[1988199],[2002659],[2017004],[2031239],[2045371],[2059408],[2073358],[2087228],[2101032],[2114780],[2128489],[2142174],[2155854],[2169551],[2183284],[2197079],[2210960],[2224947],[2239060],[2253316],[2267730],[2282306],[2297053],[2311972],[2327063],[2342324],[2357747],[2373322],[2389032],[2404862],[2420795],[2436819]],[[1723671],[1735172],[1747363],[1760207],[1773127],[1786534],[1799773],[1813334],[1826655],[1840228],[1853452],[1866400],[1879057],[1891406],[1903436],[1915120],[1926457],[1937456],[1948130],[1958497],[1968586],[1978418],[1988013],[1997386],[2006559],[2015546],[2024365],[2033032],[2041561],[2049968],[2058267],[2066479],[2074618],[2082701],[2090747],[2098771],[2106792],[2114822],[2122875],[2130961],[2139087],[2147257],[2155472],[2163729],[2172021],[2180340],[2188678],[2197021],[2205361],[2213681]],[[1723671],[1734473],[1746054],[1757911],[1769947],[1782018],[1794003],[1805324],[1816441],[1827285],[1837791],[1847902],[1857672],[1867079],[1876112],[1884742],[1892966],[1900796],[1908245],[1915331],[1922082],[1928525],[1934678],[1940562],[1946195],[1951594],[1956773],[1961748],[1966530],[1971130],[1975556],[1979821],[1983931],[1987899],[1991735],[1995447],[1999053],[2002562],[2005985],[2009332],[2012613],[2015836],[2019007],[2022130],[2025207],[2028239],[2031220],[2034147],[2037019],[2039823]],[[1723671],[1733973],[1744546],[1754874],[1764858],[1774341],[1783195],[1791336],[1798726],[1805289],[1810958],[1816169],[1820976],[1825362],[1829320],[1832828],[1835887],[1838513],[1840724],[1842542],[1843999],[1845122],[1845933],[1846455],[1846710],[1846717],[1846494],[1846055],[1845413],[1844582],[1843571],[1842396],[1841067],[1839591],[1837982],[1836251],[1834413],[1832479],[1830462],[1828372],[1826219],[1824014],[1821768],[1819483],[1817165],[1814816],[1812433],[1810015],[1807561],[1805062]],[[1723671],[1735845],[1749609],[1764487],[1780440],[1797390],[1815260],[1833508],[1852579],[1872494],[1893285],[1914114],[1934878],[1955550],[1976117],[1996571],[2016899],[2037103],[2057185],[2077150],[2097044],[2116870],[2136632],[2156332],[2175979],[2195575],[2215131],[2234658],[2254173],[2273685],[2293218],[2312795],[2332438],[2352172],[2372023],[2392017],[2412174],[2432513],[2453052],[2473791],[2494741],[2515904],[2537274],[2558849],[2580619],[2602571],[2624683],[2646940],[2669315],[2691796]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"200000","axis_min":"1700000","axis_max":"2800000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]The largest projected population for South Australia is obtained by combining small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because South Australia experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for South Australia is obtained by combining large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.
Under the:
| High series | Medium series | Low series | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 5,683 | 5,683 | 5,683 |
| 2018 | 6,338 | 6,122 | 5,880 |
| 2019 | 6,454 | 6,048 | 5,643 |
| 2020 | 6,565 | 5,975 | 5,403 |
| 2021 | 6,741 | 5,951 | 5,205 |
| 2022 | 6,856 | 5,826 | 4,910 |
| 2023 | 6,958 | 5,687 | 4,597 |
| 2024 | 7,041 | 5,526 | 4,254 |
| 2025 | 7,101 | 5,349 | 3,879 |
| 2026 | 7,154 | 5,151 | 3,484 |
| 2027 | 7,208 | 4,899 | 3,031 |
| 2028 | 7,157 | 4,623 | 2,636 |
| 2029 | 7,010 | 4,332 | 2,295 |
| 2030 | 6,845 | 4,024 | 1,932 |
| 2031 | 6,670 | 3,705 | 1,558 |
| 2032 | 6,491 | 3,359 | 1,155 |
| 2033 | 6,305 | 3,012 | 749 |
| 2034 | 6,125 | 2,674 | 355 |
| 2035 | 5,947 | 2,349 | -26 |
| 2036 | 5,785 | 2,042 | -389 |
| 2037 | 5,670 | 1,764 | -724 |
| 2038 | 5,560 | 1,507 | -1,032 |
| 2039 | 5,457 | 1,270 | -1,322 |
| 2040 | 5,362 | 1,048 | -1,591 |
| 2041 | 5,275 | 848 | -1,842 |
| 2042 | 5,195 | 662 | -2,076 |
| 2043 | 5,129 | 494 | -2,296 |
| 2044 | 5,073 | 342 | -2,500 |
| 2045 | 5,034 | 204 | -2,693 |
| 2046 | 5,010 | 82 | -2,875 |
| 2047 | 5,005 | -26 | -3,049 |
| 2048 | 5,022 | -113 | -3,210 |
| 2049 | 5,058 | -186 | -3,365 |
| 2050 | 5,120 | -242 | -3,507 |
| 2051 | 5,206 | -279 | -3,639 |
| 2052 | 5,312 | -301 | -3,763 |
| 2053 | 5,438 | -304 | -3,869 |
| 2054 | 5,581 | -295 | -3,966 |
| 2055 | 5,739 | -272 | -4,052 |
| 2056 | 5,901 | -239 | -4,128 |
| 2057 | 6,072 | -199 | -4,194 |
| 2058 | 6,244 | -155 | -4,252 |
| 2059 | 6,416 | -110 | -4,304 |
| 2060 | 6,586 | -68 | -4,352 |
| 2061 | 6,748 | -33 | -4,398 |
| 2062 | 6,900 | -6 | -4,443 |
| 2063 | 7,035 | 13 | -4,494 |
| 2064 | 7,155 | 18 | -4,548 |
| 2065 | 7,258 | 15 | -4,603 |
| 2066 | 7,349 | -5 | -4,671 |
Projected natural increase, South Australia
["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]
[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[5683],[6338],[6454],[6565],[6741],[6856],[6958],[7041],[7101],[7154],[7208],[7157],[7010],[6845],[6670],[6491],[6305],[6125],[5947],[5785],[5670],[5560],[5457],[5362],[5275],[5195],[5129],[5073],[5034],[5010],[5005],[5022],[5058],[5120],[5206],[5312],[5438],[5581],[5739],[5901],[6072],[6244],[6416],[6586],[6748],[6900],[7035],[7155],[7258],[7349]],[[5683],[6122],[6048],[5975],[5951],[5826],[5687],[5526],[5349],[5151],[4899],[4623],[4332],[4024],[3705],[3359],[3012],[2674],[2349],[2042],[1764],[1507],[1270],[1048],[848],[662],[494],[342],[204],[82],[-26],[-113],[-186],[-242],[-279],[-301],[-304],[-295],[-272],[-239],[-199],[-155],[-110],[-68],[-33],[-6],[13],[18],[15],[-5]],[[5683],[5880],[5643],[5403],[5205],[4910],[4597],[4254],[3879],[3484],[3031],[2636],[2295],[1932],[1558],[1155],[749],[355],[-26],[-389],[-724],[-1032],[-1322],[-1591],[-1842],[-2076],[-2296],[-2500],[-2693],[-2875],[-3049],[-3210],[-3365],[-3507],[-3639],[-3763],[-3869],[-3966],[-4052],[-4128],[-4194],[-4252],[-4304],[-4352],[-4398],[-4443],[-4494],[-4548],[-4603],[-4671]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"2500","axis_min":"-6000","axis_max":"10000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]The median age of the population of South Australia is projected to increase:
The proportion of:
| Age | ERP - 2017 (%) | High series - 2066 (%) | Medium series - 2066 (%) | Low series - 2066 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.12 | 1.17 | 1.07 | 0.94 |
| 1 | 1.21 | 1.17 | 1.07 | 0.94 |
| 2 | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.08 | 0.95 |
| 3 | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.09 | 0.96 |
| 4 | 1.21 | 1.18 | 1.09 | 0.97 |
| 5 | 1.23 | 1.18 | 1.10 | 0.98 |
| 6 | 1.21 | 1.18 | 1.10 | 0.99 |
| 7 | 1.22 | 1.17 | 1.10 | 0.99 |
| 8 | 1.21 | 1.17 | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| 9 | 1.22 | 1.17 | 1.11 | 1.01 |
| 10 | 1.21 | 1.16 | 1.11 | 1.01 |
| 11 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.11 | 1.02 |
| 12 | 1.13 | 1.15 | 1.11 | 1.02 |
| 13 | 1.13 | 1.15 | 1.11 | 1.03 |
| 14 | 1.12 | 1.15 | 1.11 | 1.04 |
| 15 | 1.13 | 1.15 | 1.12 | 1.05 |
| 16 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.13 | 1.06 |
| 17 | 1.20 | 1.17 | 1.14 | 1.08 |
| 18 | 1.23 | 1.19 | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| 19 | 1.26 | 1.22 | 1.19 | 1.12 |
| 20 | 1.29 | 1.24 | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| 21 | 1.33 | 1.25 | 1.22 | 1.16 |
| 22 | 1.37 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.16 |
| 23 | 1.35 | 1.26 | 1.23 | 1.16 |
| 24 | 1.35 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.16 |
| 25 | 1.34 | 1.24 | 1.22 | 1.15 |
| 26 | 1.34 | 1.24 | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| 27 | 1.35 | 1.23 | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| 28 | 1.33 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.14 |
| 29 | 1.33 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| 30 | 1.34 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| 31 | 1.36 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.16 |
| 32 | 1.35 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.16 |
| 33 | 1.36 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.17 |
| 34 | 1.33 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.18 |
| 35 | 1.30 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.19 |
| 36 | 1.27 | 1.23 | 1.24 | 1.19 |
| 37 | 1.22 | 1.23 | 1.24 | 1.20 |
| 38 | 1.20 | 1.23 | 1.24 | 1.20 |
| 39 | 1.18 | 1.23 | 1.24 | 1.21 |
| 40 | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.24 | 1.22 |
| 41 | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.25 | 1.23 |
| 42 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| 43 | 1.24 | 1.19 | 1.23 | 1.24 |
| 44 | 1.28 | 1.18 | 1.23 | 1.24 |
| 45 | 1.35 | 1.17 | 1.22 | 1.24 |
| 46 | 1.39 | 1.16 | 1.22 | 1.24 |
| 47 | 1.34 | 1.15 | 1.21 | 1.24 |
| 48 | 1.32 | 1.13 | 1.20 | 1.24 |
| 49 | 1.30 | 1.10 | 1.17 | 1.21 |
| 50 | 1.26 | 1.13 | 1.21 | 1.26 |
| 51 | 1.28 | 1.12 | 1.19 | 1.24 |
| 52 | 1.29 | 1.12 | 1.19 | 1.24 |
| 53 | 1.33 | 1.12 | 1.19 | 1.25 |
| 54 | 1.35 | 1.12 | 1.19 | 1.24 |
| 55 | 1.34 | 1.11 | 1.18 | 1.23 |
| 56 | 1.36 | 1.11 | 1.18 | 1.24 |
| 57 | 1.32 | 1.10 | 1.17 | 1.23 |
| 58 | 1.30 | 1.10 | 1.17 | 1.23 |
| 59 | 1.26 | 1.09 | 1.16 | 1.22 |
| 60 | 1.24 | 1.07 | 1.13 | 1.19 |
| 61 | 1.22 | 1.05 | 1.11 | 1.17 |
| 62 | 1.18 | 1.04 | 1.10 | 1.16 |
| 63 | 1.16 | 1.02 | 1.09 | 1.15 |
| 64 | 1.16 | 1.02 | 1.09 | 1.15 |
| 65 | 1.12 | 1.03 | 1.10 | 1.17 |
| 66 | 1.13 | 1.03 | 1.10 | 1.17 |
| 67 | 1.11 | 1.02 | 1.09 | 1.17 |
| 68 | 1.08 | 1.01 | 1.08 | 1.16 |
| 69 | 1.07 | 1.00 | 1.07 | 1.15 |
| 70 | 1.12 | 0.99 | 1.07 | 1.15 |
| 71 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.07 | 1.16 |
| 72 | 0.88 | 0.97 | 1.04 | 1.14 |
| 73 | 0.82 | 0.96 | 1.02 | 1.11 |
| 74 | 0.76 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.09 |
| 75 | 0.72 | 0.93 | 0.99 | 1.08 |
| 76 | 0.66 | 0.92 | 0.97 | 1.06 |
| 77 | 0.63 | 0.89 | 0.94 | 1.03 |
| 78 | 0.61 | 0.87 | 0.91 | 0.99 |
| 79 | 0.57 | 0.85 | 0.88 | 0.96 |
| 80 | 0.53 | 0.83 | 0.86 | 0.94 |
| 81 | 0.49 | 0.80 | 0.81 | 0.89 |
| 82 | 0.45 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.86 |
| 83 | 0.42 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| 84 | 0.40 | 0.69 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
Population proportion(a), South Australia
["Age","ERP - 2017","High series - 2066","Medium series - 2066","Low series - 2066"]
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[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"5","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"0.2","axis_min":".3","axis_max":"1.6","axis_title":"%","precision":"2","table_units":"(%)","tooltip_units":"(%)","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]| Total fertility rate(a) | Male life expectancy at birth(b) | Female life expectancy at birth(b) | Net overseas migration(a) | Net interstate migration(a) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High series | 1.98 | 87.7 | 89.4 | 36,580 | -10,000 |
| Medium series | 1.83 | 83.0 | 86.3 | 29,930 | 500 |
| Low series | 1.68 | 83.0 | 86.3 | 23,280 | 7,000 |
a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.
Western Australia's population of 2.6 million is projected to:
More of the projected growth occurs in Perth than in the rest of the state. Perth is projected to increase from:
The rest of Western Australia is projected to grow from 536,400 people in 2017 to between 588,200 and 538,100 in 2027.
| High series | Medium series | Low series | Smallest population(a) | Highest population(b) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2,575,452 | 2,575,452 | 2,575,452 | 2,575,452 | 2,575,452 |
| 2018 | 2,598,047 | 2,598,092 | 2,597,578 | 2,596,078 | 2,599,547 |
| 2019 | 2,624,858 | 2,625,298 | 2,624,065 | 2,619,534 | 2,629,388 |
| 2020 | 2,654,616 | 2,655,657 | 2,654,010 | 2,644,390 | 2,664,239 |
| 2021 | 2,687,224 | 2,688,994 | 2,686,670 | 2,670,364 | 2,703,547 |
| 2022 | 2,722,116 | 2,725,215 | 2,721,784 | 2,696,667 | 2,747,278 |
| 2023 | 2,759,616 | 2,763,493 | 2,759,023 | 2,723,439 | 2,795,297 |
| 2024 | 2,799,741 | 2,804,354 | 2,798,733 | 2,750,504 | 2,848,155 |
| 2025 | 2,842,411 | 2,847,624 | 2,840,284 | 2,777,705 | 2,905,310 |
| 2026 | 2,887,260 | 2,893,380 | 2,883,527 | 2,804,378 | 2,966,929 |
| 2027 | 2,934,844 | 2,941,404 | 2,928,270 | 2,830,805 | 3,033,103 |
| 2028 | 2,982,626 | 2,989,315 | 2,972,653 | 2,856,610 | 3,099,819 |
| 2029 | 3,030,532 | 3,037,168 | 3,016,854 | 2,881,972 | 3,166,986 |
| 2030 | 3,078,577 | 3,084,964 | 3,060,865 | 2,906,902 | 3,234,605 |
| 2031 | 3,126,768 | 3,132,704 | 3,104,683 | 2,931,411 | 3,302,669 |
| 2032 | 3,175,117 | 3,180,358 | 3,148,271 | 2,955,478 | 3,371,171 |
| 2033 | 3,223,618 | 3,227,923 | 3,191,625 | 2,979,119 | 3,440,088 |
| 2034 | 3,272,275 | 3,275,400 | 3,234,745 | 3,002,348 | 3,509,405 |
| 2035 | 3,321,081 | 3,322,786 | 3,277,633 | 3,025,182 | 3,579,094 |
| 2036 | 3,370,038 | 3,370,088 | 3,320,295 | 3,047,643 | 3,649,143 |
| 2037 | 3,419,176 | 3,417,315 | 3,362,748 | 3,069,759 | 3,719,566 |
| 2038 | 3,468,482 | 3,464,466 | 3,404,996 | 3,091,546 | 3,790,336 |
| 2039 | 3,517,941 | 3,511,544 | 3,447,042 | 3,113,022 | 3,861,424 |
| 2040 | 3,567,532 | 3,558,535 | 3,488,878 | 3,134,189 | 3,932,799 |
| 2041 | 3,617,252 | 3,605,441 | 3,530,509 | 3,155,060 | 4,004,445 |
| 2042 | 3,667,077 | 3,652,250 | 3,571,921 | 3,175,630 | 4,076,333 |
| 2043 | 3,717,010 | 3,698,961 | 3,613,115 | 3,195,910 | 4,148,457 |
| 2044 | 3,767,045 | 3,745,570 | 3,654,082 | 3,215,895 | 4,220,807 |
| 2045 | 3,817,189 | 3,792,079 | 3,694,820 | 3,235,592 | 4,293,386 |
| 2046 | 3,867,445 | 3,838,488 | 3,735,317 | 3,254,994 | 4,366,198 |
| 2047 | 3,917,830 | 3,884,802 | 3,775,565 | 3,274,098 | 4,439,260 |
| 2048 | 3,968,367 | 3,931,030 | 3,815,563 | 3,292,909 | 4,512,599 |
| 2049 | 4,019,073 | 3,977,183 | 3,855,301 | 3,311,420 | 4,586,238 |
| 2050 | 4,069,976 | 4,023,264 | 3,894,767 | 3,329,629 | 4,660,213 |
| 2051 | 4,121,096 | 4,069,288 | 3,933,962 | 3,347,538 | 4,734,555 |
| 2052 | 4,172,467 | 4,115,269 | 3,972,882 | 3,365,145 | 4,809,305 |
| 2053 | 4,224,112 | 4,161,227 | 4,011,534 | 3,382,464 | 4,884,493 |
| 2054 | 4,276,058 | 4,207,172 | 4,049,918 | 3,399,498 | 4,960,154 |
| 2055 | 4,328,328 | 4,253,113 | 4,088,040 | 3,416,258 | 5,036,311 |
| 2056 | 4,380,928 | 4,299,064 | 4,125,907 | 3,432,755 | 5,112,975 |
| 2057 | 4,433,879 | 4,345,037 | 4,163,531 | 3,449,004 | 5,190,167 |
| 2058 | 4,487,186 | 4,391,038 | 4,200,922 | 3,465,024 | 5,267,890 |
| 2059 | 4,540,860 | 4,437,077 | 4,238,096 | 3,480,833 | 5,346,150 |
| 2060 | 4,594,897 | 4,483,154 | 4,275,066 | 3,496,450 | 5,424,937 |
| 2061 | 4,649,294 | 4,529,265 | 4,311,839 | 3,511,887 | 5,504,245 |
| 2062 | 4,704,042 | 4,575,405 | 4,348,420 | 3,527,157 | 5,584,048 |
| 2063 | 4,759,125 | 4,621,563 | 4,384,814 | 3,542,271 | 5,664,324 |
| 2064 | 4,814,526 | 4,667,726 | 4,421,020 | 3,557,237 | 5,745,043 |
| 2065 | 4,870,225 | 4,713,888 | 4,457,039 | 3,572,062 | 5,826,170 |
| 2066 | 4,926,201 | 4,760,022 | 4,492,858 | 3,586,744 | 5,907,672 |
Projected population, Western Australia
["","High series","Medium series","Low series","Smallest population(a)","Highest population(b)"]
[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[2575452],[2598047],[2624858],[2654616],[2687224],[2722116],[2759616],[2799741],[2842411],[2887260],[2934844],[2982626],[3030532],[3078577],[3126768],[3175117],[3223618],[3272275],[3321081],[3370038],[3419176],[3468482],[3517941],[3567532],[3617252],[3667077],[3717010],[3767045],[3817189],[3867445],[3917830],[3968367],[4019073],[4069976],[4121096],[4172467],[4224112],[4276058],[4328328],[4380928],[4433879],[4487186],[4540860],[4594897],[4649294],[4704042],[4759125],[4814526],[4870225],[4926201]],[[2575452],[2598092],[2625298],[2655657],[2688994],[2725215],[2763493],[2804354],[2847624],[2893380],[2941404],[2989315],[3037168],[3084964],[3132704],[3180358],[3227923],[3275400],[3322786],[3370088],[3417315],[3464466],[3511544],[3558535],[3605441],[3652250],[3698961],[3745570],[3792079],[3838488],[3884802],[3931030],[3977183],[4023264],[4069288],[4115269],[4161227],[4207172],[4253113],[4299064],[4345037],[4391038],[4437077],[4483154],[4529265],[4575405],[4621563],[4667726],[4713888],[4760022]],[[2575452],[2597578],[2624065],[2654010],[2686670],[2721784],[2759023],[2798733],[2840284],[2883527],[2928270],[2972653],[3016854],[3060865],[3104683],[3148271],[3191625],[3234745],[3277633],[3320295],[3362748],[3404996],[3447042],[3488878],[3530509],[3571921],[3613115],[3654082],[3694820],[3735317],[3775565],[3815563],[3855301],[3894767],[3933962],[3972882],[4011534],[4049918],[4088040],[4125907],[4163531],[4200922],[4238096],[4275066],[4311839],[4348420],[4384814],[4421020],[4457039],[4492858]],[[2575452],[2596078],[2619534],[2644390],[2670364],[2696667],[2723439],[2750504],[2777705],[2804378],[2830805],[2856610],[2881972],[2906902],[2931411],[2955478],[2979119],[3002348],[3025182],[3047643],[3069759],[3091546],[3113022],[3134189],[3155060],[3175630],[3195910],[3215895],[3235592],[3254994],[3274098],[3292909],[3311420],[3329629],[3347538],[3365145],[3382464],[3399498],[3416258],[3432755],[3449004],[3465024],[3480833],[3496450],[3511887],[3527157],[3542271],[3557237],[3572062],[3586744]],[[2575452],[2599547],[2629388],[2664239],[2703547],[2747278],[2795297],[2848155],[2905310],[2966929],[3033103],[3099819],[3166986],[3234605],[3302669],[3371171],[3440088],[3509405],[3579094],[3649143],[3719566],[3790336],[3861424],[3932799],[4004445],[4076333],[4148457],[4220807],[4293386],[4366198],[4439260],[4512599],[4586238],[4660213],[4734555],[4809305],[4884493],[4960154],[5036311],[5112975],[5190167],[5267890],[5346150],[5424937],[5504245],[5584048],[5664324],[5745043],[5826170],[5907672]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"500000","axis_min":"2400000","axis_max":"6500000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]The largest projected population for Western Australia is obtained by combining small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because Western Australia experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for Western Australia is obtained by combining large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.
| High series | Medium series | Low series | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 20,140 | 20,140 | 20,140 |
| 2018 | 20,860 | 20,497 | 20,075 |
| 2019 | 20,737 | 20,075 | 19,367 |
| 2020 | 20,636 | 19,674 | 18,696 |
| 2021 | 20,641 | 19,381 | 18,132 |
| 2022 | 20,580 | 18,985 | 17,454 |
| 2023 | 20,543 | 18,628 | 16,795 |
| 2024 | 20,553 | 18,300 | 16,161 |
| 2025 | 20,635 | 18,016 | 15,579 |
| 2026 | 20,780 | 17,802 | 15,030 |
| 2027 | 21,009 | 17,599 | 14,468 |
| 2028 | 21,207 | 17,486 | 14,108 |
| 2029 | 21,331 | 17,428 | 13,926 |
| 2030 | 21,470 | 17,371 | 13,736 |
| 2031 | 21,616 | 17,315 | 13,543 |
| 2032 | 21,774 | 17,229 | 13,313 |
| 2033 | 21,926 | 17,140 | 13,079 |
| 2034 | 22,082 | 17,052 | 12,845 |
| 2035 | 22,231 | 16,961 | 12,613 |
| 2036 | 22,382 | 16,877 | 12,387 |
| 2037 | 22,563 | 16,802 | 12,178 |
| 2038 | 22,731 | 16,726 | 11,973 |
| 2039 | 22,884 | 16,653 | 11,771 |
| 2040 | 23,016 | 16,566 | 11,561 |
| 2041 | 23,145 | 16,481 | 11,356 |
| 2042 | 23,250 | 16,384 | 11,137 |
| 2043 | 23,358 | 16,286 | 10,919 |
| 2044 | 23,460 | 16,184 | 10,692 |
| 2045 | 23,569 | 16,084 | 10,463 |
| 2046 | 23,681 | 15,984 | 10,222 |
| 2047 | 23,810 | 15,889 | 9,973 |
| 2048 | 23,962 | 15,803 | 9,723 |
| 2049 | 24,131 | 15,728 | 9,463 |
| 2050 | 24,328 | 15,656 | 9,191 |
| 2051 | 24,545 | 15,599 | 8,920 |
| 2052 | 24,796 | 15,556 | 8,645 |
| 2053 | 25,070 | 15,533 | 8,377 |
| 2054 | 25,371 | 15,520 | 8,109 |
| 2055 | 25,695 | 15,516 | 7,847 |
| 2056 | 26,025 | 15,526 | 7,592 |
| 2057 | 26,376 | 15,548 | 7,349 |
| 2058 | 26,732 | 15,576 | 7,116 |
| 2059 | 27,099 | 15,614 | 6,899 |
| 2060 | 27,462 | 15,652 | 6,695 |
| 2061 | 27,822 | 15,686 | 6,498 |
| 2062 | 28,173 | 15,715 | 6,306 |
| 2063 | 28,508 | 15,733 | 6,119 |
| 2064 | 28,826 | 15,738 | 5,931 |
| 2065 | 29,124 | 15,737 | 5,744 |
| 2066 | 29,401 | 15,709 | 5,544 |
Projected natural increase, Western Australia
["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]
[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[20140],[20860],[20737],[20636],[20641],[20580],[20543],[20553],[20635],[20780],[21009],[21207],[21331],[21470],[21616],[21774],[21926],[22082],[22231],[22382],[22563],[22731],[22884],[23016],[23145],[23250],[23358],[23460],[23569],[23681],[23810],[23962],[24131],[24328],[24545],[24796],[25070],[25371],[25695],[26025],[26376],[26732],[27099],[27462],[27822],[28173],[28508],[28826],[29124],[29401]],[[20140],[20497],[20075],[19674],[19381],[18985],[18628],[18300],[18016],[17802],[17599],[17486],[17428],[17371],[17315],[17229],[17140],[17052],[16961],[16877],[16802],[16726],[16653],[16566],[16481],[16384],[16286],[16184],[16084],[15984],[15889],[15803],[15728],[15656],[15599],[15556],[15533],[15520],[15516],[15526],[15548],[15576],[15614],[15652],[15686],[15715],[15733],[15738],[15737],[15709]],[[20140],[20075],[19367],[18696],[18132],[17454],[16795],[16161],[15579],[15030],[14468],[14108],[13926],[13736],[13543],[13313],[13079],[12845],[12613],[12387],[12178],[11973],[11771],[11561],[11356],[11137],[10919],[10692],[10463],[10222],[9973],[9723],[9463],[9191],[8920],[8645],[8377],[8109],[7847],[7592],[7349],[7116],[6899],[6695],[6498],[6306],[6119],[5931],[5744],[5544]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"5000","axis_min":"4000","axis_max":"35000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]The median age of the population of Western Australia is projected to increase:
The proportion of:
| Age | ERP - 2017 (%) | High series - 2066 (%) | Medium series - 2066 (%) | Low series - 2066 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.35 | 1.29 | 1.18 | 1.05 |
| 1 | 1.38 | 1.28 | 1.18 | 1.05 |
| 2 | 1.34 | 1.28 | 1.18 | 1.05 |
| 3 | 1.33 | 1.27 | 1.18 | 1.06 |
| 4 | 1.34 | 1.27 | 1.18 | 1.06 |
| 5 | 1.32 | 1.27 | 1.18 | 1.07 |
| 6 | 1.34 | 1.26 | 1.18 | 1.07 |
| 7 | 1.33 | 1.25 | 1.18 | 1.07 |
| 8 | 1.31 | 1.25 | 1.18 | 1.07 |
| 9 | 1.33 | 1.24 | 1.18 | 1.08 |
| 10 | 1.31 | 1.23 | 1.17 | 1.08 |
| 11 | 1.26 | 1.22 | 1.17 | 1.08 |
| 12 | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.17 | 1.08 |
| 13 | 1.18 | 1.21 | 1.16 | 1.09 |
| 14 | 1.16 | 1.20 | 1.16 | 1.09 |
| 15 | 1.16 | 1.20 | 1.16 | 1.09 |
| 16 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.15 | 1.09 |
| 17 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.15 | 1.09 |
| 18 | 1.22 | 1.19 | 1.15 | 1.09 |
| 19 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.17 | 1.11 |
| 20 | 1.25 | 1.22 | 1.19 | 1.12 |
| 21 | 1.29 | 1.23 | 1.20 | 1.14 |
| 22 | 1.34 | 1.25 | 1.22 | 1.16 |
| 23 | 1.35 | 1.27 | 1.24 | 1.18 |
| 24 | 1.39 | 1.30 | 1.27 | 1.21 |
| 25 | 1.42 | 1.31 | 1.29 | 1.23 |
| 26 | 1.49 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.25 |
| 27 | 1.55 | 1.34 | 1.32 | 1.26 |
| 28 | 1.55 | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.27 |
| 29 | 1.59 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.28 |
| 30 | 1.61 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.29 |
| 31 | 1.63 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.30 |
| 32 | 1.58 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.30 |
| 33 | 1.58 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.30 |
| 34 | 1.56 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.31 |
| 35 | 1.51 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.31 |
| 36 | 1.46 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.31 |
| 37 | 1.40 | 1.33 | 1.35 | 1.32 |
| 38 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.32 |
| 39 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.34 | 1.32 |
| 40 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.34 | 1.33 |
| 41 | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 42 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1.33 | 1.34 |
| 43 | 1.34 | 1.28 | 1.32 | 1.34 |
| 44 | 1.38 | 1.26 | 1.32 | 1.34 |
| 45 | 1.44 | 1.25 | 1.31 | 1.34 |
| 46 | 1.45 | 1.24 | 1.30 | 1.34 |
| 47 | 1.37 | 1.22 | 1.29 | 1.33 |
| 48 | 1.36 | 1.21 | 1.28 | 1.33 |
| 49 | 1.30 | 1.17 | 1.25 | 1.30 |
| 50 | 1.27 | 1.19 | 1.27 | 1.33 |
| 51 | 1.27 | 1.17 | 1.24 | 1.30 |
| 52 | 1.26 | 1.15 | 1.23 | 1.29 |
| 53 | 1.28 | 1.15 | 1.23 | 1.29 |
| 54 | 1.29 | 1.13 | 1.21 | 1.27 |
| 55 | 1.26 | 1.13 | 1.20 | 1.26 |
| 56 | 1.25 | 1.12 | 1.19 | 1.25 |
| 57 | 1.21 | 1.10 | 1.17 | 1.23 |
| 58 | 1.17 | 1.09 | 1.17 | 1.23 |
| 59 | 1.14 | 1.08 | 1.15 | 1.21 |
| 60 | 1.11 | 1.04 | 1.11 | 1.17 |
| 61 | 1.11 | 1.01 | 1.08 | 1.13 |
| 62 | 1.05 | 0.99 | 1.06 | 1.12 |
| 63 | 1.02 | 0.97 | 1.04 | 1.10 |
| 64 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 1.02 | 1.09 |
| 65 | 0.97 | 0.95 | 1.02 | 1.09 |
| 66 | 0.95 | 0.94 | 1.01 | 1.08 |
| 67 | 0.91 | 0.92 | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| 68 | 0.89 | 0.90 | 0.96 | 1.04 |
| 69 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.94 | 1.02 |
| 70 | 0.89 | 0.86 | 0.92 | 1.00 |
| 71 | 0.71 | 0.85 | 0.91 | 0.99 |
| 72 | 0.67 | 0.82 | 0.88 | 0.96 |
| 73 | 0.65 | 0.80 | 0.86 | 0.94 |
| 74 | 0.58 | 0.78 | 0.83 | 0.91 |
| 75 | 0.58 | 0.78 | 0.82 | 0.90 |
| 76 | 0.52 | 0.77 | 0.81 | 0.89 |
| 77 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.78 | 0.85 |
| 78 | 0.47 | 0.73 | 0.76 | 0.83 |
| 79 | 0.44 | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| 80 | 0.40 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| 81 | 0.37 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| 82 | 0.34 | 0.65 | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| 83 | 0.30 | 0.62 | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| 84 | 0.28 | 0.57 | 0.55 | 0.60 |
Population proportion(a), Western Australia
["Age","ERP - 2017","High series - 2066","Medium series - 2066","Low series - 2066"]
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[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"5","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"0.25","axis_min":".2","axis_max":"1.75","axis_title":"%","precision":"2","table_units":"(%)","tooltip_units":"(%)","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]| Total fertility rate(a) | Male life expectancy at birth(b) | Female life expectancy at birth(b) | Net overseas migration(a) | Net interstate migration(a) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High series | 2.11 | 86.0 | 88.5 | 2,200 | 1,500 |
| Medium series | 1.95 | 81.4 | 84.3 | 1,800 | 0 |
| Low series | 1.79 | 81.4 | 84.3 | 1,400 | -1,500 |
a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.
Tasmania's population of 522,300 people is projected to:
Hobart is projected to grow in each series from:
Population growth for the rest of Tasmania is smaller, with both medium and low assumptions projecting population decline.
| High series | Medium series | Low series | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 522,152 | 522,152 | 522,152 |
| 2018 | 527,074 | 526,930 | 526,782 |
| 2019 | 532,030 | 531,655 | 530,773 |
| 2020 | 537,061 | 535,855 | 534,147 |
| 2021 | 542,162 | 540,012 | 537,387 |
| 2022 | 547,331 | 543,618 | 539,973 |
| 2023 | 552,518 | 547,105 | 541,844 |
| 2024 | 557,714 | 550,472 | 543,483 |
| 2025 | 562,903 | 553,699 | 544,382 |
| 2026 | 568,110 | 556,311 | 545,041 |
| 2027 | 573,305 | 558,745 | 544,919 |
| 2028 | 578,460 | 561,041 | 544,602 |
| 2029 | 583,531 | 563,182 | 544,102 |
| 2030 | 588,508 | 565,162 | 543,416 |
| 2031 | 593,387 | 566,980 | 542,541 |
| 2032 | 598,163 | 568,630 | 541,475 |
| 2033 | 602,835 | 570,115 | 540,222 |
| 2034 | 607,407 | 571,438 | 538,791 |
| 2035 | 611,883 | 572,613 | 537,192 |
| 2036 | 616,267 | 573,645 | 535,435 |
| 2037 | 620,589 | 574,548 | 533,533 |
| 2038 | 624,852 | 575,334 | 531,499 |
| 2039 | 629,061 | 576,010 | 529,346 |
| 2040 | 633,223 | 576,588 | 527,082 |
| 2041 | 637,341 | 577,079 | 524,721 |
| 2042 | 641,421 | 577,487 | 522,270 |
| 2043 | 645,469 | 577,822 | 519,738 |
| 2044 | 649,490 | 578,095 | 517,133 |
| 2045 | 653,496 | 578,316 | 514,464 |
| 2046 | 657,495 | 578,491 | 511,738 |
| 2047 | 661,495 | 578,630 | 508,963 |
| 2048 | 665,506 | 578,742 | 506,147 |
| 2049 | 669,535 | 578,835 | 503,296 |
| 2050 | 673,592 | 578,914 | 500,413 |
| 2051 | 677,685 | 578,988 | 497,505 |
| 2052 | 681,822 | 579,061 | 494,574 |
| 2053 | 686,008 | 579,138 | 491,629 |
| 2054 | 690,245 | 579,223 | 488,669 |
| 2055 | 694,534 | 579,315 | 485,701 |
| 2056 | 698,874 | 579,415 | 482,724 |
| 2057 | 703,267 | 579,525 | 479,740 |
| 2058 | 707,711 | 579,643 | 476,753 |
| 2059 | 712,201 | 579,767 | 473,763 |
| 2060 | 716,732 | 579,896 | 470,769 |
| 2061 | 721,303 | 580,025 | 467,772 |
| 2062 | 725,908 | 580,150 | 464,770 |
| 2063 | 730,536 | 580,268 | 461,762 |
| 2064 | 735,180 | 580,374 | 458,747 |
| 2065 | 739,835 | 580,463 | 455,723 |
| 2066 | 744,492 | 580,529 | 452,687 |
Projected population, Tasmania
["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]
[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[522152],[527074],[532030],[537061],[542162],[547331],[552518],[557714],[562903],[568110],[573305],[578460],[583531],[588508],[593387],[598163],[602835],[607407],[611883],[616267],[620589],[624852],[629061],[633223],[637341],[641421],[645469],[649490],[653496],[657495],[661495],[665506],[669535],[673592],[677685],[681822],[686008],[690245],[694534],[698874],[703267],[707711],[712201],[716732],[721303],[725908],[730536],[735180],[739835],[744492]],[[522152],[526930],[531655],[535855],[540012],[543618],[547105],[550472],[553699],[556311],[558745],[561041],[563182],[565162],[566980],[568630],[570115],[571438],[572613],[573645],[574548],[575334],[576010],[576588],[577079],[577487],[577822],[578095],[578316],[578491],[578630],[578742],[578835],[578914],[578988],[579061],[579138],[579223],[579315],[579415],[579525],[579643],[579767],[579896],[580025],[580150],[580268],[580374],[580463],[580529]],[[522152],[526782],[530773],[534147],[537387],[539973],[541844],[543483],[544382],[545041],[544919],[544602],[544102],[543416],[542541],[541475],[540222],[538791],[537192],[535435],[533533],[531499],[529346],[527082],[524721],[522270],[519738],[517133],[514464],[511738],[508963],[506147],[503296],[500413],[497505],[494574],[491629],[488669],[485701],[482724],[479740],[476753],[473763],[470769],[467772],[464770],[461762],[458747],[455723],[452687]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"50000","axis_min":"430000","axis_max":"800000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]| High series | Medium series | Low series | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 1,030 | 1,030 | 1,030 |
| 2018 | 1,197 | 1,131 | 1,061 |
| 2019 | 1,249 | 1,127 | 1,010 |
| 2020 | 1,300 | 1,117 | 940 |
| 2021 | 1,370 | 1,114 | 876 |
| 2022 | 1,410 | 1,068 | 769 |
| 2023 | 1,443 | 1,004 | 641 |
| 2024 | 1,468 | 931 | 496 |
| 2025 | 1,485 | 847 | 343 |
| 2026 | 1,491 | 756 | 171 |
| 2027 | 1,495 | 634 | -22 |
| 2028 | 1,455 | 496 | -217 |
| 2029 | 1,371 | 341 | -400 |
| 2030 | 1,277 | 180 | -586 |
| 2031 | 1,179 | 18 | -775 |
| 2032 | 1,076 | -150 | -966 |
| 2033 | 972 | -315 | -1,153 |
| 2034 | 872 | -477 | -1,331 |
| 2035 | 776 | -625 | -1,499 |
| 2036 | 684 | -768 | -1,657 |
| 2037 | 622 | -897 | -1,802 |
| 2038 | 563 | -1,014 | -1,934 |
| 2039 | 509 | -1,124 | -2,053 |
| 2040 | 462 | -1,222 | -2,164 |
| 2041 | 418 | -1,309 | -2,261 |
| 2042 | 380 | -1,392 | -2,351 |
| 2043 | 348 | -1,465 | -2,432 |
| 2044 | 321 | -1,527 | -2,505 |
| 2045 | 306 | -1,579 | -2,569 |
| 2046 | 299 | -1,625 | -2,626 |
| 2047 | 300 | -1,661 | -2,675 |
| 2048 | 311 | -1,688 | -2,716 |
| 2049 | 329 | -1,707 | -2,751 |
| 2050 | 357 | -1,721 | -2,783 |
| 2051 | 393 | -1,726 | -2,808 |
| 2052 | 437 | -1,727 | -2,831 |
| 2053 | 486 | -1,723 | -2,845 |
| 2054 | 537 | -1,715 | -2,860 |
| 2055 | 589 | -1,708 | -2,868 |
| 2056 | 640 | -1,700 | -2,877 |
| 2057 | 693 | -1,690 | -2,884 |
| 2058 | 744 | -1,682 | -2,887 |
| 2059 | 790 | -1,676 | -2,890 |
| 2060 | 831 | -1,671 | -2,894 |
| 2061 | 871 | -1,671 | -2,897 |
| 2062 | 905 | -1,675 | -2,902 |
| 2063 | 928 | -1,682 | -2,908 |
| 2064 | 944 | -1,694 | -2,915 |
| 2065 | 955 | -1,711 | -2,924 |
| 2066 | 957 | -1,734 | -2,936 |
Projected natural increase, Tasmania
["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]
[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[1030],[1197],[1249],[1300],[1370],[1410],[1443],[1468],[1485],[1491],[1495],[1455],[1371],[1277],[1179],[1076],[972],[872],[776],[684],[622],[563],[509],[462],[418],[380],[348],[321],[306],[299],[300],[311],[329],[357],[393],[437],[486],[537],[589],[640],[693],[744],[790],[831],[871],[905],[928],[944],[955],[957]],[[1030],[1131],[1127],[1117],[1114],[1068],[1004],[931],[847],[756],[634],[496],[341],[180],[18],[-150],[-315],[-477],[-625],[-768],[-897],[-1014],[-1124],[-1222],[-1309],[-1392],[-1465],[-1527],[-1579],[-1625],[-1661],[-1688],[-1707],[-1721],[-1726],[-1727],[-1723],[-1715],[-1708],[-1700],[-1690],[-1682],[-1676],[-1671],[-1671],[-1675],[-1682],[-1694],[-1711],[-1734]],[[1030],[1061],[1010],[940],[876],[769],[641],[496],[343],[171],[-22],[-217],[-400],[-586],[-775],[-966],[-1153],[-1331],[-1499],[-1657],[-1802],[-1934],[-2053],[-2164],[-2261],[-2351],[-2432],[-2505],[-2569],[-2626],[-2675],[-2716],[-2751],[-2783],[-2808],[-2831],[-2845],[-2860],[-2868],[-2877],[-2884],[-2887],[-2890],[-2894],[-2897],[-2902],[-2908],[-2915],[-2924],[-2936]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"1000","axis_min":"-3200","axis_max":"2000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]The median age of the population of Tasmania is projected to increase:
The proportion of:
| Age | ERP - 2017 (%) | High series - 2066 (%) | Medium series - 2066 (%) | Low series - 2066 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.07 | 1.13 | 1.02 | 0.87 |
| 1 | 1.16 | 1.14 | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| 2 | 1.14 | 1.15 | 1.04 | 0.89 |
| 3 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.05 | 0.91 |
| 4 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.06 | 0.92 |
| 5 | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.07 | 0.93 |
| 6 | 1.23 | 1.17 | 1.08 | 0.94 |
| 7 | 1.22 | 1.17 | 1.08 | 0.95 |
| 8 | 1.27 | 1.17 | 1.09 | 0.96 |
| 9 | 1.28 | 1.17 | 1.10 | 0.98 |
| 10 | 1.26 | 1.17 | 1.10 | 0.99 |
| 11 | 1.23 | 1.16 | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| 12 | 1.19 | 1.16 | 1.11 | 1.01 |
| 13 | 1.14 | 1.16 | 1.11 | 1.02 |
| 14 | 1.14 | 1.16 | 1.12 | 1.03 |
| 15 | 1.19 | 1.15 | 1.12 | 1.04 |
| 16 | 1.21 | 1.15 | 1.12 | 1.05 |
| 17 | 1.24 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.05 |
| 18 | 1.25 | 1.12 | 1.11 | 1.04 |
| 19 | 1.19 | 1.09 | 1.07 | 1.00 |
| 20 | 1.19 | 1.07 | 1.05 | 0.98 |
| 21 | 1.20 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 0.97 |
| 22 | 1.25 | 1.05 | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| 23 | 1.22 | 1.05 | 1.03 | 0.96 |
| 24 | 1.21 | 1.04 | 1.02 | 0.94 |
| 25 | 1.21 | 1.03 | 1.01 | 0.93 |
| 26 | 1.22 | 1.03 | 1.01 | 0.93 |
| 27 | 1.21 | 1.04 | 1.01 | 0.93 |
| 28 | 1.17 | 1.04 | 1.02 | 0.93 |
| 29 | 1.19 | 1.05 | 1.02 | 0.93 |
| 30 | 1.16 | 1.06 | 1.03 | 0.94 |
| 31 | 1.19 | 1.07 | 1.04 | 0.96 |
| 32 | 1.19 | 1.08 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| 33 | 1.17 | 1.09 | 1.07 | 0.98 |
| 34 | 1.16 | 1.10 | 1.08 | 1.00 |
| 35 | 1.15 | 1.12 | 1.09 | 1.01 |
| 36 | 1.14 | 1.13 | 1.11 | 1.03 |
| 37 | 1.11 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.05 |
| 38 | 1.11 | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.06 |
| 39 | 1.11 | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| 40 | 1.08 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.09 |
| 41 | 1.13 | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.11 |
| 42 | 1.18 | 1.14 | 1.16 | 1.12 |
| 43 | 1.21 | 1.14 | 1.16 | 1.13 |
| 44 | 1.27 | 1.14 | 1.17 | 1.14 |
| 45 | 1.36 | 1.13 | 1.17 | 1.16 |
| 46 | 1.39 | 1.13 | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| 47 | 1.33 | 1.13 | 1.18 | 1.18 |
| 48 | 1.34 | 1.12 | 1.18 | 1.19 |
| 49 | 1.29 | 1.09 | 1.15 | 1.17 |
| 50 | 1.26 | 1.13 | 1.20 | 1.23 |
| 51 | 1.25 | 1.12 | 1.19 | 1.22 |
| 52 | 1.30 | 1.13 | 1.19 | 1.23 |
| 53 | 1.43 | 1.15 | 1.21 | 1.25 |
| 54 | 1.42 | 1.15 | 1.22 | 1.26 |
| 55 | 1.46 | 1.17 | 1.24 | 1.27 |
| 56 | 1.50 | 1.18 | 1.25 | 1.29 |
| 57 | 1.46 | 1.19 | 1.26 | 1.30 |
| 58 | 1.44 | 1.20 | 1.27 | 1.31 |
| 59 | 1.41 | 1.19 | 1.27 | 1.31 |
| 60 | 1.38 | 1.18 | 1.25 | 1.30 |
| 61 | 1.38 | 1.16 | 1.23 | 1.28 |
| 62 | 1.31 | 1.15 | 1.22 | 1.27 |
| 63 | 1.30 | 1.15 | 1.23 | 1.28 |
| 64 | 1.32 | 1.16 | 1.24 | 1.31 |
| 65 | 1.30 | 1.18 | 1.26 | 1.34 |
| 66 | 1.28 | 1.19 | 1.27 | 1.36 |
| 67 | 1.25 | 1.19 | 1.28 | 1.37 |
| 68 | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.27 | 1.37 |
| 69 | 1.21 | 1.17 | 1.27 | 1.38 |
| 70 | 1.27 | 1.17 | 1.27 | 1.38 |
| 71 | 1.02 | 1.18 | 1.27 | 1.40 |
| 72 | 0.97 | 1.14 | 1.24 | 1.38 |
| 73 | 0.93 | 1.11 | 1.21 | 1.34 |
| 74 | 0.82 | 1.09 | 1.18 | 1.32 |
| 75 | 0.79 | 1.08 | 1.16 | 1.31 |
| 76 | 0.74 | 1.05 | 1.14 | 1.28 |
| 77 | 0.69 | 1.01 | 1.08 | 1.23 |
| 78 | 0.64 | 0.98 | 1.05 | 1.19 |
| 79 | 0.60 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.14 |
| 80 | 0.55 | 0.92 | 0.97 | 1.11 |
| 81 | 0.50 | 0.88 | 0.92 | 1.06 |
| 82 | 0.44 | 0.84 | 0.86 | 1.00 |
| 83 | 0.43 | 0.80 | 0.81 | 0.94 |
| 84 | 0.38 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.87 |
Population proportion(a), Tasmania
["Age","ERP - 2017","High series - 2066","Medium series - 2066","Low series - 2066"]
[["0","1","2","3","4","5","6","7","8","9","10","11","12","13","14","15","16","17","18","19","20","21","22","23","24","25","26","27","28","29","30","31","32","33","34","35","36","37","38","39","40","41","42","43","44","45","46","47","48","49","50","51","52","53","54","55","56","57","58","59","60","61","62","63","64","65","66","67","68","69","70","71","72","73","74","75","76","77","78","79","80","81","82","83","84"],[[1.0700000000000001],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1399999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1699999999999999],[1.1799999999999999],[1.23],[1.22],[1.27],[1.28],[1.26],[1.23],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1399999999999999],[1.1399999999999999],[1.1899999999999999],[1.21],[1.24],[1.25],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1899999999999999],[1.2],[1.25],[1.22],[1.21],[1.21],[1.22],[1.21],[1.1699999999999999],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1699999999999999],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1399999999999999],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.0800000000000001],[1.1299999999999999],[1.1799999999999999],[1.21],[1.27],[1.3600000000000001],[1.3899999999999999],[1.3300000000000001],[1.3400000000000001],[1.29],[1.26],[1.25],[1.3],[1.4299999999999999],[1.4199999999999999],[1.46],[1.5],[1.46],[1.4399999999999999],[1.4099999999999999],[1.3799999999999999],[1.3799999999999999],[1.3100000000000001],[1.3],[1.3200000000000001],[1.3],[1.28],[1.25],[1.2],[1.21],[1.27],[1.02],[0.96999999999999997],[0.93000000000000005],[0.81999999999999995],[0.79000000000000004],[0.73999999999999999],[0.68999999999999995],[0.64000000000000001],[0.59999999999999998],[0.55000000000000004],[0.5],[0.44],[0.42999999999999999],[0.38]],[[1.1299999999999999],[1.1399999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1699999999999999],[1.1699999999999999],[1.1699999999999999],[1.1699999999999999],[1.1699999999999999],[1.1699999999999999],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1399999999999999],[1.1200000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.0700000000000001],[1.05],[1.05],[1.05],[1.04],[1.03],[1.03],[1.04],[1.04],[1.05],[1.0600000000000001],[1.0700000000000001],[1.0800000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.1000000000000001],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1299999999999999],[1.1399999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1399999999999999],[1.1399999999999999],[1.1399999999999999],[1.1299999999999999],[1.1299999999999999],[1.1299999999999999],[1.1200000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.1299999999999999],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1299999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1699999999999999],[1.1799999999999999],[1.1899999999999999],[1.2],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1799999999999999],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1799999999999999],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1799999999999999],[1.1699999999999999],[1.1699999999999999],[1.1799999999999999],[1.1399999999999999],[1.1100000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.0800000000000001],[1.05],[1.01],[0.97999999999999998],[0.93999999999999995],[0.92000000000000004],[0.88],[0.83999999999999997],[0.80000000000000004],[0.75]],[[1.02],[1.03],[1.04],[1.05],[1.0600000000000001],[1.0700000000000001],[1.0800000000000001],[1.0800000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.1000000000000001],[1.1000000000000001],[1.1000000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.0700000000000001],[1.05],[1.04],[1.03],[1.03],[1.02],[1.01],[1.01],[1.01],[1.02],[1.02],[1.03],[1.04],[1.05],[1.0700000000000001],[1.0800000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1399999999999999],[1.1399999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1699999999999999],[1.1699999999999999],[1.1699999999999999],[1.1799999999999999],[1.1799999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.2],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1899999999999999],[1.21],[1.22],[1.24],[1.25],[1.26],[1.27],[1.27],[1.25],[1.23],[1.22],[1.23],[1.24],[1.26],[1.27],[1.28],[1.27],[1.27],[1.27],[1.27],[1.24],[1.21],[1.1799999999999999],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1399999999999999],[1.0800000000000001],[1.05],[1],[0.96999999999999997],[0.92000000000000004],[0.85999999999999999],[0.81000000000000005],[0.75]],[[0.87],[0.88],[0.89000000000000001],[0.91000000000000003],[0.92000000000000004],[0.93000000000000005],[0.93999999999999995],[0.94999999999999996],[0.95999999999999996],[0.97999999999999998],[0.98999999999999999],[1],[1.01],[1.02],[1.03],[1.04],[1.05],[1.05],[1.04],[1],[0.97999999999999998],[0.96999999999999997],[0.96999999999999997],[0.95999999999999996],[0.93999999999999995],[0.93000000000000005],[0.93000000000000005],[0.93000000000000005],[0.93000000000000005],[0.93000000000000005],[0.93999999999999995],[0.95999999999999996],[0.96999999999999997],[0.97999999999999998],[1],[1.01],[1.03],[1.05],[1.0600000000000001],[1.0700000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1299999999999999],[1.1399999999999999],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1699999999999999],[1.1799999999999999],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1699999999999999],[1.23],[1.22],[1.23],[1.25],[1.26],[1.27],[1.29],[1.3],[1.3100000000000001],[1.3100000000000001],[1.3],[1.28],[1.27],[1.28],[1.3100000000000001],[1.3400000000000001],[1.3600000000000001],[1.3700000000000001],[1.3700000000000001],[1.3799999999999999],[1.3799999999999999],[1.3999999999999999],[1.3799999999999999],[1.3400000000000001],[1.3200000000000001],[1.3100000000000001],[1.28],[1.23],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1399999999999999],[1.1100000000000001],[1.0600000000000001],[1],[0.93999999999999995],[0.87]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"5","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"0.25","axis_min":".25","axis_max":"1.75","axis_title":"%","precision":"2","table_units":"(%)","tooltip_units":"(%)","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]| Total fertility rate(a) | Male life expectancy at birth(b) | Female life expectancy at birth(b) | Net overseas migration(a) | Net interstate migration(a) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High series | 2.14 | 81.9 | 82.9 | 2,480 | -3,000 |
| Medium series | 1.98 | 77.6 | 80.4 | 2,030 | -1,000 |
| Low series | 1.81 | 77.6 | 80.4 | 1,580 | 1,000 |
a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.
The Northern Territory's population of 247,700 people is projected to:
Most of the Northern Territory's growth is projected to occur in Darwin. Darwin is projected to increase from:
Population growth for the rest of the Northern Territory is smaller, with some series projecting population decline.
| High series | Medium series | Low series | Smallest population(a) | Largest population(b) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 247,659 | 247,659 | 247,659 | 247,659 | 247,659 |
| 2018 | 249,402 | 249,796 | 249,678 | 249,178 | 249,902 |
| 2019 | 251,306 | 252,035 | 252,227 | 250,718 | 252,816 |
| 2020 | 253,325 | 254,322 | 255,265 | 252,228 | 256,366 |
| 2021 | 255,417 | 257,110 | 258,255 | 253,659 | 260,021 |
| 2022 | 257,584 | 259,911 | 261,683 | 255,003 | 264,281 |
| 2023 | 259,839 | 263,224 | 265,559 | 256,263 | 269,168 |
| 2024 | 262,156 | 266,539 | 269,862 | 257,409 | 274,666 |
| 2025 | 264,530 | 269,844 | 274,093 | 258,438 | 280,277 |
| 2026 | 266,997 | 273,668 | 278,764 | 259,363 | 286,536 |
| 2027 | 269,535 | 277,485 | 283,854 | 260,159 | 293,435 |
| 2028 | 272,090 | 281,308 | 288,943 | 260,901 | 300,425 |
| 2029 | 274,645 | 285,135 | 294,046 | 261,604 | 307,483 |
| 2030 | 277,204 | 288,967 | 299,160 | 262,268 | 314,609 |
| 2031 | 279,767 | 292,807 | 304,284 | 262,898 | 321,801 |
| 2032 | 282,338 | 296,650 | 309,419 | 263,494 | 329,058 |
| 2033 | 284,916 | 300,499 | 314,560 | 264,058 | 336,380 |
| 2034 | 287,505 | 304,354 | 319,708 | 264,595 | 343,766 |
| 2035 | 290,107 | 308,217 | 324,864 | 265,107 | 351,217 |
| 2036 | 292,725 | 312,090 | 330,030 | 265,596 | 358,732 |
| 2037 | 295,361 | 315,979 | 335,209 | 266,067 | 366,316 |
| 2038 | 298,018 | 319,883 | 340,403 | 266,522 | 373,968 |
| 2039 | 300,697 | 323,808 | 345,614 | 266,964 | 381,690 |
| 2040 | 303,401 | 327,753 | 350,842 | 267,395 | 389,482 |
| 2041 | 306,130 | 331,718 | 356,089 | 267,815 | 397,345 |
| 2042 | 308,885 | 335,704 | 361,352 | 268,227 | 405,282 |
| 2043 | 311,666 | 339,712 | 366,632 | 268,629 | 413,293 |
| 2044 | 314,476 | 343,743 | 371,927 | 269,021 | 421,377 |
| 2045 | 317,317 | 347,796 | 377,237 | 269,404 | 429,539 |
| 2046 | 320,188 | 351,872 | 382,558 | 269,777 | 437,778 |
| 2047 | 323,094 | 355,972 | 387,892 | 270,140 | 446,098 |
| 2048 | 326,036 | 360,096 | 393,234 | 270,494 | 454,501 |
| 2049 | 329,016 | 364,244 | 398,585 | 270,838 | 462,992 |
| 2050 | 332,035 | 368,415 | 403,945 | 271,173 | 471,573 |
| 2051 | 335,096 | 372,612 | 409,310 | 271,496 | 480,247 |
| 2052 | 338,200 | 376,835 | 414,680 | 271,808 | 489,018 |
| 2053 | 341,351 | 381,087 | 420,054 | 272,109 | 497,887 |
| 2054 | 344,550 | 385,366 | 425,431 | 272,398 | 506,857 |
| 2055 | 347,798 | 389,672 | 430,807 | 272,676 | 515,931 |
| 2056 | 351,092 | 394,006 | 436,186 | 272,945 | 525,106 |
| 2057 | 354,434 | 398,366 | 441,566 | 273,204 | 534,383 |
| 2058 | 357,822 | 402,748 | 446,945 | 273,454 | 543,760 |
| 2059 | 361,256 | 407,155 | 452,322 | 273,695 | 553,236 |
| 2060 | 364,735 | 411,583 | 457,698 | 273,927 | 562,807 |
| 2061 | 368,257 | 416,033 | 463,072 | 274,148 | 572,469 |
| 2062 | 371,817 | 420,503 | 468,445 | 274,358 | 582,221 |
| 2063 | 375,414 | 424,989 | 473,816 | 274,559 | 592,056 |
| 2064 | 379,048 | 429,495 | 479,186 | 274,752 | 601,973 |
| 2065 | 382,712 | 434,019 | 484,555 | 274,937 | 611,970 |
| 2066 | 386,411 | 438,561 | 489,923 | 275,115 | 622,047 |
Projected population, Northern Territory
["","High series","Medium series","Low series","Smallest population(a)","Largest population(b)"]
[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[247659],[249402],[251306],[253325],[255417],[257584],[259839],[262156],[264530],[266997],[269535],[272090],[274645],[277204],[279767],[282338],[284916],[287505],[290107],[292725],[295361],[298018],[300697],[303401],[306130],[308885],[311666],[314476],[317317],[320188],[323094],[326036],[329016],[332035],[335096],[338200],[341351],[344550],[347798],[351092],[354434],[357822],[361256],[364735],[368257],[371817],[375414],[379048],[382712],[386411]],[[247659],[249796],[252035],[254322],[257110],[259911],[263224],[266539],[269844],[273668],[277485],[281308],[285135],[288967],[292807],[296650],[300499],[304354],[308217],[312090],[315979],[319883],[323808],[327753],[331718],[335704],[339712],[343743],[347796],[351872],[355972],[360096],[364244],[368415],[372612],[376835],[381087],[385366],[389672],[394006],[398366],[402748],[407155],[411583],[416033],[420503],[424989],[429495],[434019],[438561]],[[247659],[249678],[252227],[255265],[258255],[261683],[265559],[269862],[274093],[278764],[283854],[288943],[294046],[299160],[304284],[309419],[314560],[319708],[324864],[330030],[335209],[340403],[345614],[350842],[356089],[361352],[366632],[371927],[377237],[382558],[387892],[393234],[398585],[403945],[409310],[414680],[420054],[425431],[430807],[436186],[441566],[446945],[452322],[457698],[463072],[468445],[473816],[479186],[484555],[489923]],[[247659],[249178],[250718],[252228],[253659],[255003],[256263],[257409],[258438],[259363],[260159],[260901],[261604],[262268],[262898],[263494],[264058],[264595],[265107],[265596],[266067],[266522],[266964],[267395],[267815],[268227],[268629],[269021],[269404],[269777],[270140],[270494],[270838],[271173],[271496],[271808],[272109],[272398],[272676],[272945],[273204],[273454],[273695],[273927],[274148],[274358],[274559],[274752],[274937],[275115]],[[247659],[249902],[252816],[256366],[260021],[264281],[269168],[274666],[280277],[286536],[293435],[300425],[307483],[314609],[321801],[329058],[336380],[343766],[351217],[358732],[366316],[373968],[381690],[389482],[397345],[405282],[413293],[421377],[429539],[437778],[446098],[454501],[462992],[471573],[480247],[489018],[497887],[506857],[515931],[525106],[534383],[543760],[553236],[562807],[572469],[582221],[592056],[601973],[611970],[622047]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"100000","axis_min":"200000","axis_max":"700000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]The largest projected population for the Northern Territory is obtained by combining small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because the Northern Territory experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for the Northern Territory is obtained by combining large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.
| High series | Medium series | Low series | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2,861 | 2,861 | 2,861 |
| 2018 | 2,887 | 2,850 | 2,801 |
| 2019 | 2,895 | 2,829 | 2,746 |
| 2020 | 2,903 | 2,811 | 2,703 |
| 2021 | 2,918 | 2,797 | 2,674 |
| 2022 | 2,936 | 2,789 | 2,634 |
| 2023 | 2,955 | 2,780 | 2,602 |
| 2024 | 2,976 | 2,781 | 2,576 |
| 2025 | 3,002 | 2,782 | 2,556 |
| 2026 | 3,030 | 2,783 | 2,534 |
| 2027 | 3,063 | 2,792 | 2,515 |
| 2028 | 3,080 | 2,798 | 2,514 |
| 2029 | 3,080 | 2,802 | 2,528 |
| 2030 | 3,084 | 2,807 | 2,539 |
| 2031 | 3,088 | 2,815 | 2,549 |
| 2032 | 3,096 | 2,818 | 2,560 |
| 2033 | 3,103 | 2,824 | 2,566 |
| 2034 | 3,114 | 2,830 | 2,573 |
| 2035 | 3,127 | 2,838 | 2,581 |
| 2036 | 3,143 | 2,848 | 2,591 |
| 2037 | 3,161 | 2,864 | 2,604 |
| 2038 | 3,182 | 2,879 | 2,619 |
| 2039 | 3,204 | 2,900 | 2,636 |
| 2040 | 3,229 | 2,920 | 2,653 |
| 2041 | 3,254 | 2,940 | 2,672 |
| 2042 | 3,280 | 2,961 | 2,688 |
| 2043 | 3,306 | 2,983 | 2,705 |
| 2044 | 3,335 | 3,006 | 2,720 |
| 2045 | 3,366 | 3,028 | 2,735 |
| 2046 | 3,396 | 3,051 | 2,746 |
| 2047 | 3,431 | 3,075 | 2,759 |
| 2048 | 3,467 | 3,099 | 2,767 |
| 2049 | 3,505 | 3,123 | 2,776 |
| 2050 | 3,544 | 3,146 | 2,785 |
| 2051 | 3,586 | 3,172 | 2,790 |
| 2052 | 3,629 | 3,198 | 2,795 |
| 2053 | 3,676 | 3,227 | 2,799 |
| 2054 | 3,724 | 3,254 | 2,802 |
| 2055 | 3,773 | 3,281 | 2,801 |
| 2056 | 3,819 | 3,309 | 2,804 |
| 2057 | 3,867 | 3,335 | 2,805 |
| 2058 | 3,913 | 3,357 | 2,804 |
| 2059 | 3,959 | 3,382 | 2,802 |
| 2060 | 4,004 | 3,403 | 2,801 |
| 2061 | 4,047 | 3,425 | 2,799 |
| 2062 | 4,085 | 3,445 | 2,798 |
| 2063 | 4,122 | 3,461 | 2,796 |
| 2064 | 4,159 | 3,481 | 2,795 |
| 2065 | 4,189 | 3,499 | 2,794 |
| 2066 | 4,224 | 3,517 | 2,793 |
Projected natural increase, Northern Territory
["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]
[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[2861],[2887],[2895],[2903],[2918],[2936],[2955],[2976],[3002],[3030],[3063],[3080],[3080],[3084],[3088],[3096],[3103],[3114],[3127],[3143],[3161],[3182],[3204],[3229],[3254],[3280],[3306],[3335],[3366],[3396],[3431],[3467],[3505],[3544],[3586],[3629],[3676],[3724],[3773],[3819],[3867],[3913],[3959],[4004],[4047],[4085],[4122],[4159],[4189],[4224]],[[2861],[2850],[2829],[2811],[2797],[2789],[2780],[2781],[2782],[2783],[2792],[2798],[2802],[2807],[2815],[2818],[2824],[2830],[2838],[2848],[2864],[2879],[2900],[2920],[2940],[2961],[2983],[3006],[3028],[3051],[3075],[3099],[3123],[3146],[3172],[3198],[3227],[3254],[3281],[3309],[3335],[3357],[3382],[3403],[3425],[3445],[3461],[3481],[3499],[3517]],[[2861],[2801],[2746],[2703],[2674],[2634],[2602],[2576],[2556],[2534],[2515],[2514],[2528],[2539],[2549],[2560],[2566],[2573],[2581],[2591],[2604],[2619],[2636],[2653],[2672],[2688],[2705],[2720],[2735],[2746],[2759],[2767],[2776],[2785],[2790],[2795],[2799],[2802],[2801],[2804],[2805],[2804],[2802],[2801],[2799],[2798],[2796],[2795],[2794],[2793]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"250","axis_min":"2400","axis_max":"4500","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]The median age of the population of the Northern Territory is projected to increase from:
The proportion of
| Age | ERP - 2017 (%) | High series - 2066 (%) | Medium series - 2066 (%) | Low series - 2066 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.58 | 1.61 | 1.46 | 1.30 |
| 1 | 1.63 | 1.59 | 1.45 | 1.30 |
| 2 | 1.52 | 1.56 | 1.44 | 1.29 |
| 3 | 1.49 | 1.54 | 1.42 | 1.28 |
| 4 | 1.51 | 1.53 | 1.42 | 1.28 |
| 5 | 1.56 | 1.52 | 1.41 | 1.28 |
| 6 | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.40 | 1.28 |
| 7 | 1.49 | 1.49 | 1.40 | 1.28 |
| 8 | 1.45 | 1.48 | 1.39 | 1.28 |
| 9 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.37 | 1.27 |
| 10 | 1.39 | 1.42 | 1.35 | 1.25 |
| 11 | 1.36 | 1.39 | 1.33 | 1.24 |
| 12 | 1.27 | 1.35 | 1.30 | 1.22 |
| 13 | 1.24 | 1.31 | 1.27 | 1.19 |
| 14 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.24 | 1.17 |
| 15 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.22 | 1.15 |
| 16 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.19 | 1.14 |
| 17 | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.18 | 1.13 |
| 18 | 1.17 | 1.20 | 1.17 | 1.12 |
| 19 | 1.21 | 1.19 | 1.16 | 1.12 |
| 20 | 1.26 | 1.23 | 1.20 | 1.15 |
| 21 | 1.28 | 1.31 | 1.27 | 1.21 |
| 22 | 1.47 | 1.40 | 1.35 | 1.28 |
| 23 | 1.55 | 1.48 | 1.42 | 1.34 |
| 24 | 1.66 | 1.56 | 1.49 | 1.41 |
| 25 | 1.85 | 1.64 | 1.57 | 1.48 |
| 26 | 1.95 | 1.66 | 1.60 | 1.52 |
| 27 | 2.01 | 1.67 | 1.62 | 1.54 |
| 28 | 1.99 | 1.68 | 1.63 | 1.56 |
| 29 | 2.06 | 1.70 | 1.66 | 1.59 |
| 30 | 2.05 | 1.72 | 1.68 | 1.61 |
| 31 | 1.96 | 1.71 | 1.68 | 1.62 |
| 32 | 1.92 | 1.69 | 1.67 | 1.62 |
| 33 | 1.86 | 1.67 | 1.66 | 1.61 |
| 34 | 1.87 | 1.66 | 1.65 | 1.61 |
| 35 | 1.73 | 1.63 | 1.63 | 1.60 |
| 36 | 1.66 | 1.61 | 1.62 | 1.59 |
| 37 | 1.55 | 1.60 | 1.61 | 1.59 |
| 38 | 1.53 | 1.57 | 1.58 | 1.57 |
| 39 | 1.47 | 1.54 | 1.57 | 1.56 |
| 40 | 1.43 | 1.52 | 1.55 | 1.56 |
| 41 | 1.45 | 1.49 | 1.53 | 1.54 |
| 42 | 1.37 | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.53 |
| 43 | 1.43 | 1.42 | 1.47 | 1.51 |
| 44 | 1.33 | 1.40 | 1.46 | 1.51 |
| 45 | 1.43 | 1.38 | 1.44 | 1.50 |
| 46 | 1.52 | 1.35 | 1.42 | 1.48 |
| 47 | 1.39 | 1.31 | 1.38 | 1.45 |
| 48 | 1.35 | 1.28 | 1.36 | 1.43 |
| 49 | 1.30 | 1.23 | 1.31 | 1.38 |
| 50 | 1.29 | 1.24 | 1.32 | 1.41 |
| 51 | 1.30 | 1.21 | 1.29 | 1.37 |
| 52 | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.26 | 1.34 |
| 53 | 1.23 | 1.17 | 1.25 | 1.33 |
| 54 | 1.26 | 1.14 | 1.22 | 1.30 |
| 55 | 1.23 | 1.11 | 1.19 | 1.27 |
| 56 | 1.18 | 1.10 | 1.17 | 1.25 |
| 57 | 1.13 | 1.06 | 1.14 | 1.22 |
| 58 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 1.11 | 1.19 |
| 59 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.08 | 1.15 |
| 60 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 1.02 | 1.09 |
| 61 | 0.94 | 0.89 | 0.96 | 1.03 |
| 62 | 0.89 | 0.85 | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| 63 | 0.83 | 0.81 | 0.88 | 0.96 |
| 64 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.84 | 0.92 |
| 65 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.81 | 0.89 |
| 66 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.78 | 0.86 |
| 67 | 0.64 | 0.67 | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| 68 | 0.58 | 0.63 | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| 69 | 0.54 | 0.60 | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| 70 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| 71 | 0.42 | 0.55 | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| 72 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| 73 | 0.33 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| 74 | 0.30 | 0.45 | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| 75 | 0.30 | 0.43 | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| 76 | 0.27 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| 77 | 0.24 | 0.38 | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| 78 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| 79 | 0.16 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| 80 | 0.14 | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| 81 | 0.13 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| 82 | 0.10 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| 83 | 0.09 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| 84 | 0.08 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.26 |
Population proportion(a), Northern Territory
["Age","ERP - 2017","High series - 2066","Medium series - 2066","Low series - 2066"]
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000000000001],[1.5900000000000001],[1.5900000000000001],[1.5700000000000001],[1.5600000000000001],[1.5600000000000001],[1.54],[1.53],[1.51],[1.51],[1.5],[1.48],[1.45],[1.4299999999999999],[1.3799999999999999],[1.4099999999999999],[1.3700000000000001],[1.3400000000000001],[1.3300000000000001],[1.3],[1.27],[1.25],[1.22],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.0900000000000001],[1.03],[0.98999999999999999],[0.95999999999999996],[0.92000000000000004],[0.89000000000000001],[0.85999999999999999],[0.81999999999999995],[0.78000000000000003],[0.75],[0.70999999999999996],[0.68000000000000005],[0.64000000000000001],[0.59999999999999998],[0.56000000000000005],[0.53000000000000003],[0.5],[0.46000000000000002],[0.42999999999999999],[0.40000000000000002],[0.37],[0.34000000000000002],[0.31],[0.28999999999999998],[0.26000000000000001]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"5","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"0.5","axis_min":"0","axis_max":"2.5","axis_title":"%","precision":"2","table_units":"(%)","tooltip_units":"(%)","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]| Total fertility rate(a) | Male life expectancy at birth(b) | Female life expectancy at birth(b) | Net overseas migration(a) | Net interstate migration(a) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High series | 1.79 | 88.8 | 90.0 | 3,850 | 1,500 |
| Medium series | 1.65 | 84.0 | 86.6 | 3,150 | 500 |
| Low series | 1.51 | 84.0 | 86.6 | 2,450 | -1,000 |
a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.
The Australian Capital Territory’s population of 412,000 people is projected to:
| High series | Medium series | Low series | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 411,986 | 411,986 | 411,986 |
| 2018 | 421,374 | 420,667 | 420,446 |
| 2019 | 431,030 | 429,490 | 428,926 |
| 2020 | 440,789 | 438,275 | 436,757 |
| 2021 | 450,617 | 446,983 | 444,392 |
| 2022 | 460,498 | 455,610 | 451,306 |
| 2023 | 470,375 | 464,083 | 457,937 |
| 2024 | 480,274 | 471,939 | 463,800 |
| 2025 | 490,175 | 479,645 | 469,381 |
| 2026 | 500,092 | 487,211 | 474,675 |
| 2027 | 510,021 | 494,613 | 479,167 |
| 2028 | 520,006 | 501,981 | 483,553 |
| 2029 | 530,036 | 509,325 | 487,867 |
| 2030 | 540,103 | 516,641 | 492,105 |
| 2031 | 550,204 | 523,922 | 496,261 |
| 2032 | 560,335 | 531,165 | 500,330 |
| 2033 | 570,494 | 538,367 | 504,313 |
| 2034 | 580,681 | 545,531 | 508,213 |
| 2035 | 590,897 | 552,660 | 512,034 |
| 2036 | 601,142 | 559,760 | 515,785 |
| 2037 | 611,431 | 566,838 | 519,472 |
| 2038 | 621,764 | 573,899 | 523,105 |
| 2039 | 632,144 | 580,948 | 526,691 |
| 2040 | 642,574 | 587,991 | 530,236 |
| 2041 | 653,055 | 595,034 | 533,745 |
| 2042 | 663,587 | 602,077 | 537,222 |
| 2043 | 674,172 | 609,125 | 540,671 |
| 2044 | 684,811 | 616,180 | 544,097 |
| 2045 | 695,506 | 623,242 | 547,499 |
| 2046 | 706,258 | 630,314 | 550,878 |
| 2047 | 717,072 | 637,395 | 554,235 |
| 2048 | 727,951 | 644,486 | 557,567 |
| 2049 | 738,900 | 651,589 | 560,875 |
| 2050 | 749,928 | 658,708 | 564,156 |
| 2051 | 761,037 | 665,843 | 567,411 |
| 2052 | 772,233 | 672,996 | 570,638 |
| 2053 | 783,522 | 680,167 | 573,838 |
| 2054 | 794,909 | 687,360 | 577,009 |
| 2055 | 806,395 | 694,575 | 580,150 |
| 2056 | 817,980 | 701,810 | 583,260 |
| 2057 | 829,664 | 709,062 | 586,336 |
| 2058 | 841,447 | 716,330 | 589,378 |
| 2059 | 853,328 | 723,613 | 592,388 |
| 2060 | 865,301 | 730,907 | 595,364 |
| 2061 | 877,364 | 738,209 | 598,305 |
| 2062 | 889,508 | 745,519 | 601,211 |
| 2063 | 901,727 | 752,831 | 604,081 |
| 2064 | 914,012 | 760,139 | 606,915 |
| 2065 | 926,355 | 767,438 | 609,712 |
| 2066 | 938,751 | 774,725 | 612,469 |
Projected population, Australian Capital Territory
["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]
[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[411986],[421374],[431030],[440789],[450617],[460498],[470375],[480274],[490175],[500092],[510021],[520006],[530036],[540103],[550204],[560335],[570494],[580681],[590897],[601142],[611431],[621764],[632144],[642574],[653055],[663587],[674172],[684811],[695506],[706258],[717072],[727951],[738900],[749928],[761037],[772233],[783522],[794909],[806395],[817980],[829664],[841447],[853328],[865301],[877364],[889508],[901727],[914012],[926355],[938751]],[[411986],[420667],[429490],[438275],[446983],[455610],[464083],[471939],[479645],[487211],[494613],[501981],[509325],[516641],[523922],[531165],[538367],[545531],[552660],[559760],[566838],[573899],[580948],[587991],[595034],[602077],[609125],[616180],[623242],[630314],[637395],[644486],[651589],[658708],[665843],[672996],[680167],[687360],[694575],[701810],[709062],[716330],[723613],[730907],[738209],[745519],[752831],[760139],[767438],[774725]],[[411986],[420446],[428926],[436757],[444392],[451306],[457937],[463800],[469381],[474675],[479167],[483553],[487867],[492105],[496261],[500330],[504313],[508213],[512034],[515785],[519472],[523105],[526691],[530236],[533745],[537222],[540671],[544097],[547499],[550878],[554235],[557567],[560875],[564156],[567411],[570638],[573838],[577009],[580150],[583260],[586336],[589378],[592388],[595364],[598305],[601211],[604081],[606915],[609712],[612469]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"100000","axis_min":"380000","axis_max":"1000000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]In the three selected series, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths during the projection period, resulting in natural increase for the Australian Capital Territory.
| High series | Medium series | Low series | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 3,853 | 3,796 | 3,725 |
| 2018 | 3,939 | 3,815 | 3,695 |
| 2019 | 4,026 | 3,833 | 3,661 |
| 2020 | 4,124 | 3,857 | 3,622 |
| 2021 | 4,205 | 3,860 | 3,556 |
| 2022 | 4,287 | 3,859 | 3,477 |
| 2023 | 4,366 | 3,852 | 3,388 |
| 2024 | 4,439 | 3,826 | 3,283 |
| 2025 | 4,511 | 3,795 | 3,171 |
| 2026 | 4,579 | 3,752 | 3,042 |
| 2027 | 4,635 | 3,718 | 2,936 |
| 2028 | 4,680 | 3,694 | 2,864 |
| 2029 | 4,717 | 3,666 | 2,788 |
| 2030 | 4,751 | 3,631 | 2,706 |
| 2031 | 4,781 | 3,593 | 2,619 |
| 2032 | 4,809 | 3,552 | 2,533 |
| 2033 | 4,837 | 3,514 | 2,450 |
| 2034 | 4,866 | 3,479 | 2,371 |
| 2035 | 4,895 | 3,450 | 2,301 |
| 2036 | 4,939 | 3,428 | 2,237 |
| 2037 | 4,983 | 3,411 | 2,183 |
| 2038 | 5,030 | 3,399 | 2,136 |
| 2039 | 5,080 | 3,393 | 2,095 |
| 2040 | 5,131 | 3,393 | 2,059 |
| 2041 | 5,182 | 3,393 | 2,027 |
| 2042 | 5,235 | 3,398 | 1,999 |
| 2043 | 5,289 | 3,405 | 1,976 |
| 2044 | 5,345 | 3,412 | 1,952 |
| 2045 | 5,402 | 3,422 | 1,929 |
| 2046 | 5,464 | 3,431 | 1,907 |
| 2047 | 5,529 | 3,441 | 1,882 |
| 2048 | 5,599 | 3,453 | 1,858 |
| 2049 | 5,678 | 3,469 | 1,831 |
| 2050 | 5,759 | 3,485 | 1,805 |
| 2051 | 5,846 | 3,503 | 1,777 |
| 2052 | 5,939 | 3,521 | 1,750 |
| 2053 | 6,037 | 3,543 | 1,721 |
| 2054 | 6,136 | 3,565 | 1,691 |
| 2055 | 6,235 | 3,585 | 1,660 |
| 2056 | 6,334 | 3,602 | 1,626 |
| 2057 | 6,433 | 3,618 | 1,592 |
| 2058 | 6,531 | 3,633 | 1,560 |
| 2059 | 6,623 | 3,644 | 1,526 |
| 2060 | 6,713 | 3,652 | 1,491 |
| 2061 | 6,794 | 3,660 | 1,456 |
| 2062 | 6,869 | 3,662 | 1,420 |
| 2063 | 6,935 | 3,658 | 1,384 |
| 2064 | 6,993 | 3,649 | 1,347 |
| 2065 | 7,046 | 3,637 | 1,307 |
| 2066 | 7,026 | 3,608 | 1,255 |
Projected natural increase, Australian Capital Territory
["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]
[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[3853],[3939],[4026],[4124],[4205],[4287],[4366],[4439],[4511],[4579],[4635],[4680],[4717],[4751],[4781],[4809],[4837],[4866],[4895],[4939],[4983],[5030],[5080],[5131],[5182],[5235],[5289],[5345],[5402],[5464],[5529],[5599],[5678],[5759],[5846],[5939],[6037],[6136],[6235],[6334],[6433],[6531],[6623],[6713],[6794],[6869],[6935],[6993],[7046],[7026]],[[3796],[3815],[3833],[3857],[3860],[3859],[3852],[3826],[3795],[3752],[3718],[3694],[3666],[3631],[3593],[3552],[3514],[3479],[3450],[3428],[3411],[3399],[3393],[3393],[3393],[3398],[3405],[3412],[3422],[3431],[3441],[3453],[3469],[3485],[3503],[3521],[3543],[3565],[3585],[3602],[3618],[3633],[3644],[3652],[3660],[3662],[3658],[3649],[3637],[3608]],[[3725],[3695],[3661],[3622],[3556],[3477],[3388],[3283],[3171],[3042],[2936],[2864],[2788],[2706],[2619],[2533],[2450],[2371],[2301],[2237],[2183],[2136],[2095],[2059],[2027],[1999],[1976],[1952],[1929],[1907],[1882],[1858],[1831],[1805],[1777],[1750],[1721],[1691],[1660],[1626],[1592],[1560],[1526],[1491],[1456],[1420],[1384],[1347],[1307],[1255]]]
[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"1000","axis_min":"1000","axis_max":"8000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]The median age of the population of the Australian Capital Territory is projected to increase from:
The proportion of:
| Age | ERP - 2017 (%) | High series - 2066 (%) | Medium series - 2066 (%) | Low series - 2066 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.36 | 1.31 | 1.20 | 1.05 |
| 1 | 1.39 | 1.30 | 1.19 | 1.05 |
| 2 | 1.41 | 1.29 | 1.19 | 1.05 |
| 3 | 1.36 | 1.28 | 1.18 | 1.04 |
| 4 | 1.38 | 1.27 | 1.18 | 1.05 |
| 5 | 1.36 | 1.27 | 1.18 | 1.05 |
| 6 | 1.33 | 1.25 | 1.17 | 1.05 |
| 7 | 1.33 | 1.24 | 1.16 | 1.05 |
| 8 | 1.26 | 1.23 | 1.15 | 1.05 |
| 9 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.14 | 1.04 |
| 10 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.13 | 1.04 |
| 11 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.12 | 1.04 |
| 12 | 1.10 | 1.17 | 1.12 | 1.04 |
| 13 | 1.07 | 1.15 | 1.11 | 1.03 |
| 14 | 1.05 | 1.14 | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| 15 | 1.04 | 1.13 | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| 16 | 1.07 | 1.13 | 1.10 | 1.04 |
| 17 | 1.12 | 1.15 | 1.12 | 1.07 |
| 18 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.26 | 1.21 |
| 19 | 1.48 | 1.39 | 1.37 | 1.32 |
| 20 | 1.56 | 1.44 | 1.42 | 1.37 |
| 21 | 1.59 | 1.46 | 1.44 | 1.39 |
| 22 | 1.64 | 1.49 | 1.48 | 1.43 |
| 23 | 1.72 | 1.53 | 1.51 | 1.46 |
| 24 | 1.67 | 1.55 | 1.54 | 1.48 |
| 25 | 1.61 | 1.55 | 1.53 | 1.46 |
| 26 | 1.69 | 1.53 | 1.51 | 1.44 |
| 27 | 1.68 | 1.53 | 1.50 | 1.43 |
| 28 | 1.69 | 1.52 | 1.50 | 1.43 |
| 29 | 1.66 | 1.52 | 1.49 | 1.42 |
| 30 | 1.66 | 1.50 | 1.48 | 1.41 |
| 31 | 1.71 | 1.49 | 1.47 | 1.40 |
| 32 | 1.70 | 1.49 | 1.48 | 1.41 |
| 33 | 1.74 | 1.49 | 1.47 | 1.41 |
| 34 | 1.66 | 1.49 | 1.47 | 1.41 |
| 35 | 1.67 | 1.48 | 1.47 | 1.41 |
| 36 | 1.61 | 1.47 | 1.46 | 1.41 |
| 37 | 1.54 | 1.46 | 1.46 | 1.40 |
| 38 | 1.50 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.39 |
| 39 | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.43 | 1.38 |
| 40 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.41 | 1.38 |
| 41 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.40 | 1.37 |
| 42 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.39 | 1.37 |
| 43 | 1.38 | 1.34 | 1.37 | 1.37 |
| 44 | 1.39 | 1.32 | 1.36 | 1.37 |
| 45 | 1.41 | 1.29 | 1.34 | 1.35 |
| 46 | 1.43 | 1.27 | 1.32 | 1.34 |
| 47 | 1.33 | 1.25 | 1.30 | 1.34 |
| 48 | 1.28 | 1.22 | 1.28 | 1.32 |
| 49 | 1.22 | 1.17 | 1.23 | 1.28 |
| 50 | 1.17 | 1.19 | 1.26 | 1.31 |
| 51 | 1.21 | 1.16 | 1.23 | 1.28 |
| 52 | 1.16 | 1.15 | 1.21 | 1.26 |
| 53 | 1.19 | 1.14 | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| 54 | 1.16 | 1.12 | 1.18 | 1.23 |
| 55 | 1.20 | 1.09 | 1.15 | 1.21 |
| 56 | 1.16 | 1.07 | 1.13 | 1.19 |
| 57 | 1.11 | 1.04 | 1.10 | 1.15 |
| 58 | 1.07 | 1.02 | 1.08 | 1.13 |
| 59 | 1.05 | 0.99 | 1.05 | 1.10 |
| 60 | 1.01 | 0.96 | 1.01 | 1.06 |
| 61 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.97 | 1.02 |
| 62 | 0.92 | 0.89 | 0.94 | 0.99 |
| 63 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.92 | 0.97 |
| 64 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.90 | 0.96 |
| 65 | 0.87 | 0.84 | 0.89 | 0.96 |
| 66 | 0.85 | 0.82 | 0.88 | 0.94 |
| 67 | 0.83 | 0.80 | 0.86 | 0.93 |
| 68 | 0.82 | 0.79 | 0.85 | 0.92 |
| 69 | 0.82 | 0.77 | 0.83 | 0.91 |
| 70 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.81 | 0.90 |
| 71 | 0.68 | 0.74 | 0.80 | 0.89 |
| 72 | 0.61 | 0.72 | 0.78 | 0.87 |
| 73 | 0.58 | 0.69 | 0.74 | 0.83 |
| 74 | 0.52 | 0.66 | 0.72 | 0.81 |
| 75 | 0.51 | 0.66 | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| 76 | 0.45 | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| 77 | 0.43 | 0.62 | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| 78 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| 79 | 0.38 | 0.58 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| 80 | 0.35 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| 81 | 0.32 | 0.55 | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| 82 | 0.29 | 0.53 | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| 83 | 0.26 | 0.50 | 0.51 | 0.60 |
| 84 | 0.24 | 0.47 | 0.48 | 0.56 |
Population proportion(a), Australian Capital Territory
["Age","ERP - 2017","High series - 2066","Medium series - 2066","Low series - 2066"]
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[]
[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"5","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}][{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"0.25","axis_min":"0","axis_max":"2","axis_title":"%","precision":"2","table_units":"(%)","tooltip_units":"(%)","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]Time series spreadsheets are only provided for the high, medium and low series.
Help for: Data Explorer
Projected population, Australia, 2017–2066
Projected population, New South Wales, greater capital city/rest of state, 2017–2066
Projected population, Victoria, greater capital city/rest of state, 2017–2066
Projected population, Queensland, greater capital city/rest of state, 2017–2066
Projected population, South Australia, greater capital city/rest of state, 2017–2066
Projected population, Western Australia, greater capital city/rest of state, 2017–2066
Projected population, Tasmania, greater capital city/rest of state, 2017–2066
Projected population, Northern Territory, greater capital city/rest of state, 2017–2066
Projected population, Australian Capital Territory, greater capital city/rest of state, 2017–2066
This release previously used catalogue number 3222.0.