Provisional Mortality Statistics

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Provisional deaths data for measuring changes in patterns of mortality

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Reference period
Jan 2023
Released
28/04/2023
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Key statistics

  • There were 14,547 deaths in January, 12.4% more than the baseline average but 10.5% less than January 2022

  • The death rate for January was 40.7 per 100,000 people, lower than the baseline average (41.1) and 2022 (47.0)
  • COVID-19 caused 213 deaths in February, down from 731 in January (see article)

Changes in this publication

Some changes to content and structure have been implemented in this publication. They are as follows: 

  • In graphs and tables 2023 deaths are compared to deaths that occurred in 2022 and deaths that occurred in a baseline period (average of 2017-2019, 2021). Further information is provided in the section "Baseline comparisons".  
  • Age-specific death rates by sex are now provided for selected age groups. 
  • There are some changes to the cause of death categories. These changes have been introduced to reduce the number of deaths that are currently not included in a cause of death category in the Provisional Mortality Statistics publication.  
    • A new group - "other cardiac conditions" (ICD-10 codes I26-I51) is now presented in both the table in this article and in the tables in the data cubes. Further information is provided in the "Mortality by selected causes of death" section. 
    • Deaths due to Fronto-temporal dementia (G31.0) and Lewy body dementia (G31.8) have been added to the Dementia category. 

Baseline comparisons

The purpose of a baseline is to provide a typical year (or combination of years) to compare the current year to. Deaths for 2023 will have two comparisons points - they will be compared to both deaths occurring in 2022 and a baseline period consisting of the average number of deaths occurring in the years of 2017-2019, 2021.

There were 190,775 deaths which occurred in 2022. This is significantly higher than usual and is not considered to be a typical year for mortality in Australia. Therefore 2022 has not been included in the baseline average and is instead presented separately in graphs and tables. The baseline average presented in this report remains as the average of the years 2017-19 and 2021. 2020 is not included in the baseline for 2022 data because it included periods where numbers of deaths were significantly lower than expected and is similarly not considered to be a typical year for mortality in Australia.  

These counts serve as a proxy for the expected number of deaths, so comparisons against baseline or the previous year can provide an indication of whether mortality is higher or lower than expected in a given year. The minimum and maximum baseline counts are also included to provide an indication of the range of previous years. Minimums and maximums for any given week can be from any of the years included in the baseline.

While this publication can provide an indication of where counts of deaths are above or below expectations, it does not provide official estimates of excess mortality. Using the number of deaths from the previous years as the predictor for the expected number of deaths does not take into account changes in population size and age-structures of that population, as well as expected improvements in mortality rates over time. Age-standardised death rates can be accessed via the data downloads tab in this publication. 

Counts of deaths for 2015-2022 are included in the baseline data cubes of the data downloads section of this report. Customised baselines are able to be created from these data cubes. 

COVID-19 mortality

The ABS publishes two regular reports that provide preliminary information on mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, Provisional Mortality Statistics and COVID-19 Deaths in Australia articles. These reports provide information on different time periods and serve different purposes.

Provisional Mortality Statistics focus on monitoring patterns of mortality (by all-causes and specified leading causes of death) and highlight any changes potentially associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Data must be sufficiently complete to detect such changes, and as such these reports are only released once the majority of deaths that occurred in a particular period have been registered and reported.   

COVID-19 Mortality in Australia articles focus on all COVID-19 deaths registered and reported up until a specified time. These articles include important information about COVID-19 deaths, including demographic details, comorbidities and consequences of the disease. While it is recognised data will be incomplete, it can still indicate emerging trends or changes among these deaths. The most recent article on COVID-19 mortality covering deaths that occurred and were registered up until 31 March 2023 can be accessed through the articles link on this page. 

Australian deaths by week

All-cause deaths

Tracking the number of deaths against historical averages for similar time periods provides an initial indication of when a change in the pattern of mortality may occur. This is of particular relevance because of the many potential public health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Note: There is a change in the way this graph is presented. Previously, 2022 deaths and 2022 deaths "excluding deaths from COVID-19" were presented against the baseline average and range. Deaths occurring in 2022 and 2023 are now presented separately in place of "deaths excluding deaths from COVID-19". Information on COVID-19 mortality is presented in both the "Mortality by selected causes" section and in the attached article "COVID-19 Mortality in Australia". 

For all deaths:

  • In 2023, there were 14,547 deaths that occurred by 31 January and were registered by 31 March. This is 1,605 deaths (12.4%) more than the baseline average, but 1,713 (10.5%) less than in 2022.
  • 12,813 of the deaths occurring in January 2023 were doctor certified and 1,734 were coroner referred.
  • The age-standardised death rate (SDR) for January was 40.7 deaths per 100,000 people, slightly lower than the baseline average (41.1) and below the rate for 2022 (47.0). 

Deaths are presented by counts only. Counts of death do not account for changes in population. See data downloads for weekly and monthly age-standardised death rate calculations. 

  1. Data is by occurrence.
  2. Data is provisional and subject to change.
  3. Weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday as per the ISO week date system. Refer to 'Weekly comparisons' on the methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.
  4. The baseline includes deaths from 2017-19 and 2021.

Age specific death rates

The following table shows age specific death rates (deaths per 100,000 population) for different age groups by sex in January 2023, presented with both those from January 2022 and the baseline average.

  • For all age groups, death rates were lower in January 2023 than in 2022. The death rates for those aged over 85 and the overall crude death rate were higher in January 2023 than the baseline average, while the death rates for the younger age groups were all below the baseline rates.
  • For females, the 0-44 death rate in January 2023 was slightly higher than that of 2022 and the baseline average. All other female age groups were below the 2022 rates.
  • All age-specific death rates in males in January 2023 were lower than the rates in January 2022. 
  • Most rates were also below baseline with the exception of males and females over 85, females aged 75-84, females aged 0-44 and the crude death rate for males and females.
  • For all age groups, the male death rate is higher than the female death rate, with a larger discrepancy in the younger age groups.
Age specific rates, January 2023
 20232022baseline average
Persons   
0-444.024.5574.538
45-6426.7931.81829.111
65-7493.211101.57394.108
75-84265.88309.086272.55
85 and over1,051.131,226.56987.87
All ages55.08962.77451.215
    
Males   
0-444.766.1675.958
45-6434.5439.93536.77
65-74115.59129.131116.51
75-84310.98382.364329.63
85 and over1,133.631,340.461,063.14
All ages57.87167.53654.138
    
Females   
0-443.262.9053.082
45-6419.30523.97321.732
65-7472.51975.94572.817
75-84225.42243.523222.41
85 and over996.191,152.22941.43
All ages52.34658.08348.334

a. Data is by occurrence.
b. Data is provisional and subject to change.
c. Doctor certified and coroner referred deaths are included.
d. The baseline includes deaths from 2017-19 and 2021.

Changes to selected causes of mortality

There are two changes to selected causes of mortality. These changes have been implemented to decrease the number of deaths which are not categorised by a cause of death grouping in the Provisional Mortality Statistics report. 

A new group - "other cardiac conditions" (ICD-10 codes I26-I51) is now presented. This group comprises a number of conditions including cardiomyopathies, cardiac arrhythmias, valvular heart diseases and heart failure. Deaths due to cardiac arrhythmias and heart failure caused the most deaths in this category causing 206 and 264 deaths respectively in January 2023. 

Deaths due to Fronto-temporal dementia (G31.0) and Lewy body dementia (G31.8) have been added to the Dementia category. This has increased the number of dementia deaths reported each year by 3-4%. 

Mortality by selected causes of death

Cause-specific mortality

The following analysis is based only on doctor certified deaths (i.e. coroner referred deaths are not included). Any changes in patterns of coroner referral could affect counts of doctor certified deaths. Some conditions have higher coroner referral rates (ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases and to a lesser extent, respiratory diseases and diabetes) so counts for those conditions would be more likely to be affected by such changes.

COVID-19

  • In January 2023 there have been 704 deaths due to COVID-19 that were certified by a doctor. This is 55.2% lower than the 1,572 deaths in January 2022 and 22.0% lower than the 903 deaths in December 2022.
  • As the pandemic has progressed the number of people dying 'with' COVID-19 has increased. In January 220 people died with COVID-19 as a contributing factor to their death. (ie. COVID-19 was certified on the death certificate but it was not the underlying cause of death).

Other causes of death

  • Deaths due to dementia including Alzheimer's disease were 14.3% above the baseline average in January 2023, but 12.4% below January 2022.
  • The age-standardised death rate for deaths due to dementia was 3.4 per 100,000 people in January 2023. This compares to a baseline average rate of 3.3 and a rate of 4.0 in January 2022. 
  • Deaths due to diabetes were 20.3% above the baseline average in January 2023, but 15.0% below January 2022.
  • The age-standardised death rate for deaths due to diabetes was 1.2 per 100,000 people in January 2023. This compares to a baseline average rate of 1.1 and a rate of 1.4 in January 2022.
  • Deaths due to other cardiac conditions were 18.2% above the baseline average in January 2023 but 1.4% below January 2022.
  • The age-standardised death rate for deaths due to other cardiac conditions was 2.0 per 100,000 people in January 2023. This compares to a baseline average rate of 2.0 and a rate of 2.1 in January 2022.
  • The number of deaths due to cancer was 4.3% above the baseline average in January 2023 but 3.7% below January 2022.
  • Deaths due to ischaemic heart disease were 8.7% below the baseline average in January 2023 and 16.5% lower than January 2022.
  • Deaths due to cerebrovascular disease were 6.4% lower than the baseline average in January 2023 and 4.9% lower than January 2022. 
Doctor certified deaths by cause, January 2023
   Jan 2023Jan 2022Jan baseline average
Cancer4,1104,2663,942
Dementia1,3021,4861,139
Ischaemic heart disease1,0201,2221,117
Respiratory diseases1,0181,005986
 Chronic lower respiratory diseases556582579
 Influenza and pneumonia167159169
  Pneumonia161158156
Other cardiac conditions774785655
Cerebrovascular diseases705741753
COVID-197041,572na
Diabetes432508359

a. Only doctor certified deaths are included.
b. Data is by date of occurrence.
c. Weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday as per the ISO week date system. Refer to the section 'Weekly comparisons' in the methodology for more information.
d. The baseline includes deaths from 2017-19 and 2021

Timeliness and completeness of data

Each death registration in the national mortality dataset has 3 dates:

  • The date on which the death occurred.
  • The date on which the death was registered with the jurisdictional Registry of Births Deaths and Marriages (RBDM).
  • The date on which the death was lodged with the ABS.
     

When looking to measure change over time, the completeness of data for the most recent period is important. When data is received each month by the ABS, the lag between the date of death and the date of registration means that approximately 40-50% of reported registrations are of deaths that occurred in the month being reported. The remainder are deaths that occurred in earlier months.

For deaths which are doctor certified, approximately 95% of registrations are received after a second month of reporting, while for coroner certified deaths, the proportion of registrations reported after a second month is lower (approximately 78%). This is because it takes longer for coroners to certify deaths due to the complexity of investigations.

As coroner referred deaths make up a smaller proportion of all deaths (approximately 11-14%) their inclusion in all-cause data only reduces the overall completeness by around 2%. This should be considered when making comparisons with historical counts, noting also that the level of completeness will be higher for the start of any given month than the end of that month. 

This pattern of registration and reporting is highlighted in the table below, which also shows the slight variation in reporting timelines by cause of death. 

Estimated completeness of death registrations received by the ABS (a)(b)(c)
 Total proportion reported at the end of
Cause of death

the month the death occurred (%)

the month after the death occurred (%)

two months after the death occurred (%)

All cause - doctor and coroner certified43.192.797.1
All cause - doctor certified only44.593.997.9
All cause - coroner certified only24.677.588.1
Ischaemic heart disease (I20 – I25)45.294.998.4
Other cardiac conditions (I26 – I51)45.595.098.6
Cerebrovascular diseases (I60 – I69)45.195.298.6
Respiratory diseases (J00 – J99)45.695.398.7
Chronic lower respiratory diseases (J40 – J47)45.394.298.1
Influenza and pneumonia (J09 – J18)45.495.498.8
Cancer (C00 – C97, D45, D46, D47.1, D47.3 – D47.5)46.895.398.6
Diabetes (E10 – E14)43.892.897.1
Dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease (F01, F03, G30, G31.0, G31.8)46.395.498.7

a. Percentages are based on the date registrations were received by the ABS for deaths that occurred in 2017-2019 and 2021.
b. Only doctor certified deaths are included for cause-specific data.
c. Data is provisional and subject to change.
 

The graphs below show how numbers of deaths for each period have increased over time as additional registrations that occurred in previous months are reported to the ABS. Due to these increases, data for the most recently reported periods should be treated with caution.

Data downloads

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Provisional Mortality Statistics, Jan 2023

Data files

Previous catalogue number

This release previously used catalogue number 3303.0.55.004

Methodology

Provisional Mortality Statistics methodology, Jan 2023

Articles