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Provisional Mortality Statistics

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Provisional deaths data for measuring changes in patterns of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery period

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Reference period
Jan 2020 - Oct 2021
Released
22/12/2021
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Key statistics

  • In 2021, 124,184 deaths occurred by 31 October and were registered by 30 November.
  • The number of deaths were slightly above historical averages in September and October but mortality rates remain below average.

Measuring ‘excess’ deaths

An article on COVID-19 mortality is available via the Articles link. This article outlines key demographics of the 1,671 people who died due to COVID-19 up until 31 October 2021.

Excess mortality is an epidemiological concept typically defined as the difference between the observed number of deaths in a specified time period and the expected numbers of deaths in that same time period. Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19.

Throughout this report, counts of deaths for 2020 and 2021 are compared to an average number of deaths recorded over the previous 5 years (2015-2019). These average or baseline counts serve as a proxy for the expected number of deaths, so comparisons against baseline counts can provide an indication of excess mortality. The minimum and maximum counts from 2015-19 are also included to provide an indication of the range of previous counts. Minimums and maximums for any given week can be from any of the five years from 2015-19. As mortality during 2020 had periods where deaths were significantly lower than expected, 2020 has not been included in the baseline average. 

While data in the body of this report are presented as raw counts of death, mortality rates are presented in the data cubes which can be accessed via the data downloads tab. Mortality rates enable for more accurate comparisons over time by taking account changing population size and age-structures. 

Australian deaths by week, 30 December 2019 to 31 October 2021

All-cause deaths certified by a doctor

Tracking the number of doctor certified deaths against historical averages for similar time periods provides an initial indication of when excess deaths may occur. This is of particular relevance because of the many potential public health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of COVID-19 infections by week in Australia is highlighted alongside total deaths. This is to enable insights into patterns of mortality from all causes of death during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially during peak infectious periods. 

For doctor certified deaths:

  • There were 124,184 deaths that occurred between 1 January and 31 October 2021 and were registered by 30 November. Data is preliminary and it is expected that deaths occurring in October will increase as additional registrations are received.
  • This is 5,418 deaths (4.6%) more than the 2015-19 average and 5,000 deaths (4.2%) more than in 2020.
  • The age-standardised death rate (SDR) for January to October 2021 was 357.8 per 100,000 people. This is comparable to 2020, where an SDR of 355.3 per 100,000 people was recorded for the same period.
  • The SDR of 357.8 per 100,000 is below the average rate for 2015-2019 which recorded an SDR of 386.5.
  • For the month of September, there were 12,723 deaths, which is 1.1% more deaths than average, and 5.8% more than in 2020. The SDR for September was 36.1 in 2021, comparable to the 35.3 rate in 2020 but below the average rate for 2015-2019 of 40.5.
  • For the month of October, there were 12,362 deaths registered by 30 November, which is 2.5% more deaths than average, and 4.9% more than in 2020. The SDR for October was 34.7 in 2021, comparable to the 34.3 rate in 2020 but below the average rate for 2015-2019 of 38.6.
  • There were 251 deaths due to COVID-19 that occurred in September and 356 deaths that occurred in October that were registered by 30 November.

Note: This analysis does not include coroner referred deaths. Any changes in patterns of coroner referral could affect counts of doctor certified deaths. Some conditions have higher coroner referral rates (ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases and to a lesser extent, respiratory diseases and diabetes) so counts for those conditions would be more likely to be affected by such changes.

Deaths are presented by counts only. Counts of death do not account for changes in population. See data downloads for weekly and monthly age-standardised death rate calculations. 

  1. This graph is compiled by the date the death occurred.
  2. This data is considered to be provisional and subject to change as additional data is received.
  3. In line with the ISO (International Organization for Standardisation) week date system, weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday. Week 1 of any given year is the week which starts on the Monday closest to 1 January, and for which the majority of its days fall in January (i.e. four days or more). Week 1 therefore always contains the 4th of January and always contains the first Thursday of the year. Using the ISO structure, some years (e.g. 2015 and 2020) contain 53 weeks.
  4. Refer to explanatory notes on the Methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.
  5. Data for the number of COVID-19 infections has been sourced from the COVID-19 daily infections graph published on the Australian Government Department of Health website. Data extracted 8 December 2021.

Ischaemic heart disease

Ischaemic heart disease is the leading cause of death in Australia. The category includes acute conditions such as myocardial infarction and chronic conditions such as coronary atherosclerosis.

  • 11,636 deaths occurred from ischaemic heart disease between January and October 2021

  • This is 1,163 deaths (9.1%) below the 2015-19 average, but remains 1.5% above the 11,462 deaths at the same point in 2020.

  • Deaths due to ischaemic heart disease have been decreasing over time.
  1. Ischaemic heart disease includes all deaths where the underlying cause of death is assigned an ICD-10 code between I20-I25.
  2. This graph only includes doctor certified deaths.
  3. This graph is compiled by the date the death occurred.
  4. This data is considered to be provisional and subject to change as additional data is received.
  5. In line with the ISO (International Organization for Standardisation) week date system, weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday. Week 1 of any given year is the week which starts on the Monday closest to 1 January, and for which the majority of its days fall in January (i.e. four days or more). Week 1 therefore always contains the 4th of January and always contains the first Thursday of the year. Using the ISO structure, some years (e.g. 2015 and 2020) contain 53 weeks.
  6. Refer to the weekly data cube to find the dates corresponding to each week. For example, week 1 in 2020 was 29 December 2019 to 5 January 2020, while week 1 in 2021 was 4 January to 10 January 2021. 
  7. Refer to the explanatory notes on the Methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.

Cerebrovascular diseases

Cerebrovascular diseases refer to a number of conditions such as stroke, cerebral aneurysms and stenosis that affect blood flow and circulation to the brain.

  • 7,615 deaths from cerebrovascular diseases (including strokes) occurred between January and October 2021.
  • This is 636 deaths (7.7%) below the 2015-19 average, comparable to the 7,623 deaths at the same point in 2020.
  • Similar to ischaemic heart disease, deaths from cerebrovascular diseases have been declining over time. 
  1. Cerebrovascular diseases include all deaths where the underlying cause of death is assigned an ICD-10 code between I60-I69.
  2. This graph only includes doctor certified deaths.
  3. This graph is compiled by the date the death occurred.
  4. This data is considered to be provisional and subject to change as additional data is received.
  5. In line with the ISO (International Organization for Standardisation) week date system, weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday. Week 1 of any given year is the week which starts on the Monday closest to 1 January, and for which the majority of its days fall in January (i.e. four days or more). Week 1 therefore always contains the 4th of January and always contains the first Thursday of the year. Using the ISO structure, some years (e.g. 2015 and 2020) contain 53 weeks.
  6. Refer to the weekly data cube to find the dates corresponding to each week. For example, week 1 in 2020 was 29 December 2019 to 5 January 2020, while week 1 in 2021 was 4 January to 10 January 2021. 
  7. Refer to explanatory notes on the Methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.

Respiratory diseases

Respiratory diseases include causes of death such as pneumonia, influenza, and chronic lower respiratory diseases (including emphysema and chronic bronchitis). Deaths due to COVID-19 are not included in this category. COVID-19 deaths are captured using WHO issued emergency codes U07.1 and U07.2 and are not currently grouped with any other diseases, though they are included in the total number of deaths and are presented in the data downloads.

  • There were 11,023 deaths from respiratory diseases between January and October 2021.
  • This is 1,259 deaths (10.3%) below the 2015-19 average, but remains 8.1% higher than the 10,199 deaths at the same point in 2020.
  • During September 2021 there were 1,104 deaths due to respiratory diseases, which is 4.8% more than in September 2020, but remains 30.3% below the baseline average.
  • During October 2021 there were 1,068 deaths due to respiratory diseases, which is 15.7% more than in October 2020, but remains 18.2% below the baseline average.
  1. Respiratory diseases include all deaths where the underlying cause of death is assigned an ICD-10 code between J00-J99.
  2. This graph only includes doctor certified deaths.
  3. This graph is compiled by the date the death occurred.
  4. This data is considered to be provisional and subject to change as additional data is received.
  5. In line with the ISO (International Organization for Standardisation) week date system, weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday. Week 1 of any given year is the week which starts on the Monday closest to 1 January, and for which the majority of its days fall in January (i.e. four days or more). Week 1 therefore always contains the 4th of January and always contains the first Thursday of the year. Using the ISO structure, some years (e.g. 2015 and 2020) contain 53 weeks.
  6. Refer to the weekly data cube to find the dates corresponding to each week. For example, week 1 in 2020 was 29 December 2019 to 5 January 2020, while week 1 in 2021 was 4 January to 10 January 2021. 
  7. Refer to the explanatory notes on the Methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.

Chronic lower respiratory diseases

Chronic lower respiratory diseases include chronic bronchitis, emphysema, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD). Chronic lower respiratory diseases (J40-J47) are a sub-group of respiratory diseases (J00-J99).

  • There were 6,048 deaths from chronic lower respiratory diseases between January and October 2021.
  • This is 471 deaths (7.2%) below the 2015-19 average, but remains 7.4% higher than the 5,631 deaths at the same point in 2020.
  • During September 2021 there were 631 deaths from chronic lower respiratory conditions, which is 4.0% higher than in September 2020, but remains 19.7% below the baseline average. 
  • During October 2021 there were 537 deaths from chronic lower respiratory conditions, which is 2.7% lower than in October 2020, and 20.9% below the baseline average. 
  1. Chronic lower respiratory diseases include all deaths where the underlying cause of death is assigned an ICD-10 code between J40-J47.
  2. This graph only includes doctor certified deaths.
  3. This graph is compiled by the date the death occurred.
  4. This data is considered to be provisional and subject to change as additional data is received.
  5. In line with the ISO (International Organization for Standardisation) week date system, weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday. Week 1 of any given year is the week which starts on the Monday closest to 1 January, and for which the majority of its days fall in January (i.e. four days or more). Week 1 therefore always contains the 4th of January and always contains the first Thursday of the year. Using the ISO structure, some years (e.g. 2015 and 2020) contain 53 weeks.

  6. Refer to the weekly data cube to find the dates corresponding to each week. For example, week 1 in 2020 was 29 December 2019 to 5 January 2020, while week 1 in 2021 was 4 January to 10 January 2021. 

  7. Refer to explanatory notes on the Methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.

Influenza and pneumonia

Influenza and pneumonia are acute respiratory diseases often grouped together when compiling leading causes of death. They are two distinct diseases: influenza is a viral infection, while pneumonia can be caused by a virus, bacteria or fungi. Influenza is a common cause of pneumonia.

Influenza deaths are highly seasonal and most commonly occur in Australia between the months of May and September. The timing, length and severity of the influenza season varies considerably from year to year. For this reason, influenza deaths have been excluded from the graph below so pneumonia deaths can be tracked separately.

Influenza and pneumonia (J09-J18) are a subset of respiratory diseases (J00-J99).

  • There were 1,816 deaths due to influenza and pneumonia recorded between January and October 2021. All but two deaths in this category were due to pneumonia. 
  • This is 1,092 deaths (37.6%) lower than the 2015-19 average, and 61 deaths (3.2%) lower than at the same point in 2020.

Influenza

  • There was one death due to influenza in October 2021.  

Pneumonia

  • The number of deaths due to pneumonia has generally been below average since late April 2020.
  • Between January and October 2021, deaths due to pneumonia were 22.1% below the 2015-19 average and 1.1% below the same point in 2020.
  • During September 2021 there were 163 deaths due to pneumonia, which is 6.5% higher than in September 2020 but remains 44.6% below the historical average. 
  • During October 2021 there were 213 deaths due to pneumonia, which is 62.6% higher than in October 2020 but remains 16.8% below the historical average. 
  1. Pneumonia includes all deaths where the underlying cause of death is assigned an ICD-10 code between J12-J18.
  2. This graph only includes doctor certified deaths.
  3. This graph is compiled by the date the death occurred.
  4. This data is considered to be provisional and subject to change as additional data is received.
  5. In line with the ISO (International Organization for Standardisation) week date system, weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday. Week 1 of any given year is the week which starts on the Monday closest to 1 January, and for which the majority of its days fall in January (i.e. four days or more). Week 1 therefore always contains the 4th of January and always contains the first Thursday of the year. Using the ISO structure, some years (e.g. 2015 and 2020) contain 53 weeks.
  6. Refer to the weekly data cube to find the dates corresponding to each week. For example, week 1 in 2020 was 29 December 2019 to 5 January 2020, while week 1 in 2021 was 4 January to 10 January 2021. 
  7. Refer to the explanatory notes on the Methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.

Cancer

Cancer includes malignant neoplasms encompassing carcinomas, sarcomas and lymph and blood cancers.

  • 40,765 deaths from cancer occurred between January and October 2021.
  • This is 6.0% higher than the 2015-19 average, and 2.0% higher than at the same point in 2020.
  • The SDR for cancer between 1 January and 31 October 2021 was 122.5 deaths per 100,000 people. This is comparable to the SDR of 124.0 for the same period in 2020 but lower than the SDR of 131.0 for 2015-2019 (average).
  • During September 2021 there were 4,053 deaths due to cancer, which is 2.5% more than in September 2020, and 7.8% higher than the historical average.
  • During October 2021 there were 3,925 deaths due to cancer, which is 3.8% fewer than in October 2020, and comparable to the historical average of 3,899.
  1. Cancer includes all deaths where the underlying cause of death is assigned an ICD-10 code between C00-C97, D45, D46, D47.1 or D47.3-D47.5.
  2. This graph only includes doctor certified deaths.
  3. This graph is compiled by the date the death occurred.
  4. This data is considered to be provisional and subject to change as additional data is received.
  5. In line with the ISO (International Organization for Standardisation) week date system, weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday. Week 1 of any given year is the week which starts on the Monday closest to 1 January, and for which the majority of its days fall in January (i.e. four days or more). Week 1 therefore always contains the 4th of January and always contains the first Thursday of the year. Using the ISO structure, some years (e.g. 2015 and 2020) contain 53 weeks.
  6. Refer to the weekly data cube to find the dates corresponding to each week. For example, week 1 in 2020 was 29 December 2019 to 5 January 2020, while week 1 in 2021 was 4 January to 10 January 2021.
  7. Refer to the explanatory notes on the Methodology page in this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.

Diabetes

Diabetes includes both Type 1 diabetes and Type 2 diabetes. The majority of diabetes deaths are from Type 2 diabetes.

  • 4,097 deaths from diabetes occurred between January and October 2021.
  • This is 8.8% higher than the 2015-19 average, but comparable to the 4,132 deaths at the same point in 2020.
  • The SDR for diabetes between 1 January and 31 October 2021 was 11.8 deaths per 100,000 people. This is similar to the SDR of 12.4 in 2020 over the same period and similar to the rate of 12.3 for 2015-2019 (average).
  • During September 2021 there were 428 deaths due to diabetes, which is comparable to the 424 deaths in September 2020, and 6.2% higher than the historical average.
  • During October 2021 there were 365 deaths due to diabetes, which is 13.7% fewer than in October 2020, and comparable to the historical average of 368.
  1. Diabetes includes all deaths where the underlying cause of death is assigned an ICD-10 code between E10-E14.
  2. This graph only includes doctor certified deaths.
  3. This graph is compiled by the date the death occurred.
  4. This data is considered to be provisional and subject to change as additional data is received.
  5. In line with the ISO (International Organization for Standardisation) week date system, weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday. Week 1 of any given year is the week which starts on the Monday closest to 1 January, and for which the majority of its days fall in January (i.e. four days or more). Week 1 therefore always contains the 4th of January and always contains the first Thursday of the year. Using the ISO structure, some years (e.g. 2015 and 2020) contain 53 weeks.
  6. Refer to the weekly data cube to find the dates corresponding to each week. For example, week 1 in 2020 was 29 December 2019 to 5 January 2020, while week 1 in 2021 was 4 January to 10 January 2021.
  7. Refer to the explanatory notes on the Methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.

Dementia, including Alzheimer disease

Dementia, including Alzheimer disease, is the second leading cause of death in Australia and counts of deaths from dementia have increased steadily over the past 20 years. This increase should be taken into consideration when comparing 2020 and 2021 counts against baseline averages.

  • 12,979 deaths from dementia, including Alzheimer disease, occurred between January and October 2021.
  • This is 13.6% higher than the 2015-19 average, and 6.0% higher than at the same point in 2020.
  • The SDR for dementia between 1 January and 31 October 2021 was 35.0 per 100,000 people. This is comparable to both the SDR for the same period in 2020 of 34.2 and the historical average SDR of 34.8. 

  • During September 2021 there were 1,262 deaths due to dementia, including Alzheimer disease, which is 4.8% more than in September 2020, and 3.3% higher than the baseline average.

  • During October 2021 there were 1,244 deaths due to dementia, including Alzheimer disease, which is 3.6% more than in October 2020, and 8.0% higher than the baseline average.

  1. Dementia, including Alzheimer Disease includes all deaths where the underlying cause of death is assigned an ICD-10 code of F01, F03 or G30.
  2. This graph only includes doctor certified deaths.
  3. This graph is compiled by the date the death occurred.
  4. This data is considered to be provisional and subject to change as additional data is received.
  5. In line with the ISO (International Organization for Standardisation) week date system, weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday. Week 1 of any given year is the week which starts on the Monday closest to 1 January, and for which the majority of its days fall in January (i.e. four days or more). Week 1 therefore always contains the 4th of January and always contains the first Thursday of the year. Using the ISO structure, some years (e.g. 2015 and 2020) contain 53 weeks.
  6. Refer to the weekly data cube to find the dates corresponding to each week. For example, week 1 in 2020 was 29 December 2019 to 5 January 2020, while week 1 in 2021 was 4 January to 10 January 2021.
  7. Refer to the explanatory notes on the Methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.

Timeliness and completeness of data

Each death registration in the national mortality dataset has 3 dates:

  • The date on which the death occurred.
  • The date on which the death was registered with the jurisdictional Registry of Births Deaths and Marriages (RBDM).
  • The date on which the death was lodged with the ABS.
     

The time between the occurrence of a death and registration can vary, although in general, deaths certified by a doctor are registered sooner. Coroner certified deaths undergo extensive investigative processes which can delay registration times, and for this reason they are excluded from the provisional mortality reports.

When looking to measure change over time, the completeness of data for the most recent period is important. When data are received each month by the ABS, the lag between the date of death and date of registration means that only 40-50% of reported registrations are of deaths that occurred in the month being reported. The remainder are deaths that occurred in earlier months. After a second month of reporting, approximately 95% of doctor certified registrations have been received. This is considered sufficiently complete to enable meaningful comparison with historical counts, noting that the level of completeness will be higher for the start of any given month than the end of that month.

This pattern of registration and reporting is highlighted in the table below, which also shows the slight variation in reporting timelines by cause of death. This should be considered when comparing 2021 data to the 2015-2019 baseline data.
 

Cause of deathReported at the end of the month the death occurredReported at the end of the month after the death occurredTotal portion reported at the end of the month after the death occurred
All cause

45.8%

48.6%

94.4%

Ischaemic heart disease (I20 – I25)

45.2%

49.2%

94.4%

Cerebrovascular diseases (I60 – I69)

45.4%

49.3%

94.7%

Respiratory diseases (J00 – J99)

45.5%

48.7%

94.2%

Chronic lower respiratory diseases (J40 – J47)

45.4%

48.3%

93.7%

Influenza and pneumonia (J09 – J18)

45.7%

49.2%

94.9%

Cancer (C00 – C97, D45, D56, D47.1, D47.3 – D47.5)

46.9%

48.0%

94.9%

Diabetes (E10 – E14)

43.6%

49.0%

92.7%

Dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease (F01, F03, G30)

46.0%

48.6%

94.6%

a. Percentages are based on the average of 5 years (2015-2019) of receipt of death registrations.
b. This table only includes doctor certified deaths.
c. Data is subject to change.
 

The graph below shows how numbers of deaths for each period have increased over time as additional registrations that occurred in previous months are reported to the ABS. Due to these increases, data for the most recently reported periods should be treated with caution.

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Provisional mortality statistics, Jan 2020 - Oct 2021

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Previous catalogue number

This release previously used catalogue number 3303.0.55.004

Methodology

Provisional Mortality Statistics methodology, Jan 2020 - Oct 2021

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