Provisional Mortality Statistics

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Provisional deaths data for measuring changes in patterns of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery period

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Reference period
Jan 2020 - Jul 2021
Released
28/10/2021
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Key statistics

  • In 2021, 85,392 deaths occurred by 31 July and were registered by 30 September.
  • Counts of deaths were above historical averages while rates were below average for each month of 2021. 
  • 920 people died of COVID-19, with dementia being the most common pre-existing chronic condition. 

Measuring ‘excess’ deaths

An article on COVID-19 mortality is available. This article outlines key demographics of the 920 people who died due to COVID-19 up until 31 July 2021.

Excess mortality is an epidemiological concept typically defined as the difference between the observed number of deaths in a specified time period and the expected numbers of deaths in that same time period. Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19.

Throughout this report, counts of deaths for 2020 and 2021 are compared to an average number of deaths recorded over the previous 5 years (2015-2019). These average or baseline counts serve as a proxy for the expected number of deaths, so comparisons against baseline counts can provide an indication of excess mortality. The minimum and maximum counts from 2015-19 are also included to provide an indication of the range of previous counts. Minimums and maximums for any given week can be from any of the five years from 2015-19. As mortality during 2020 had periods where deaths were significantly lower than expected, 2020 has not been included in the baseline average. 

While data in the body of this report are presented as raw counts of death, mortality rates are presented in the data cubes which can be accessed via the data downloads tab. Mortality rates enable for more accurate comparisons over time by taking account changing population size and age-structures. 

Australian deaths by week, 30 December 2019 to 25 July 2021

All-cause deaths certified by a doctor

Tracking the number of doctor certified deaths against historical averages for similar time periods provides an initial indication of when excess deaths may occur. This is of particular relevance because of the many potential public health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of COVID-19 infections by week in Australia is highlighted alongside total deaths. This is to enable insights into patterns of mortality from all causes of death during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially during peak infectious periods. 

  • There were 85,392 deaths that occurred in the seven months between January and July 2021 and were registered by 30 September.
  • This is 4,841 deaths (6.0%) more than the 2015-19 average and 3,024 deaths (3.7%) more than in 2020.
  • The age standardised death rate for January to July 2021 was 246.1, comparable to the 245.8 recorded in 2020 and below the historical average of 262.5.
  • For the month of July, there were 13,725 deaths, which is 3.6% more deaths than average, and 8.7% more than in 2020. The age standardised death rate for July was 38.7 in 2021, slightly above the 37.1 rate in 2020 but below the historical average of 42.6.

Note: This analysis does not include coroner referred deaths. Any changes in patterns of coroner referral could affect counts of doctor certified deaths. Some conditions have higher coroner referral rates (ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases and to a lesser extent, respiratory diseases and diabetes) so counts for those conditions would be more likely to be affected by such changes.

Deaths are presented by counts only. Counts of death do not account for changes in population. See data downloads for weekly and monthly age-standardised death rate calculations. 

  1. This graph is compiled by the date the death occurred.
  2. This data is considered to be provisional and subject to change as additional data is received.
  3. In line with the ISO (International Organization for Standardisation) week date system, weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday. Week 1 of any given year is the week which starts on the Monday closest to 1 January, and for which the majority of its days fall in January (i.e. four days or more). Week 1 therefore always contains the 4th of January and always contains the first Thursday of the year. Using the ISO structure, some years (e.g. 2015 and 2020) contain 53 weeks.
  4. Refer to explanatory notes on the Methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.
  5. Data for the number of COVID-19 infections has been sourced from the COVID-19 daily infections graph published on the Australian Government Department of Health website. Data extracted 1 October 2021.

Ischaemic heart disease

Ischaemic heart disease is the leading cause of death in Australia. The category includes acute conditions such as myocardial infarction and chronic conditions such as coronary atherosclerosis.

  • 8,010 deaths occurred from ischaemic heart disease between January and July 2021

  • This is 678 deaths (7.8%) below the 2015-19 average, but remains 2.4% above the 7,824 deaths at the same point in 2020.

  • Deaths due to ischaemic heart disease have been decreasing over time.
  1. Ischaemic heart disease includes all deaths where the underlying cause of death is assigned an ICD-10 code between I20-I25.
  2. This graph only includes doctor certified deaths.
  3. This graph is compiled by the date the death occurred.
  4. This data is considered to be provisional and subject to change as additional data is received.
  5. In line with the ISO (International Organization for Standardisation) week date system, weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday. Week 1 of any given year is the week which starts on the Monday closest to 1 January, and for which the majority of its days fall in January (i.e. four days or more). Week 1 therefore always contains the 4th of January and always contains the first Thursday of the year. Using the ISO structure, some years (e.g. 2015 and 2020) contain 53 weeks.
  6. Refer to the weekly data cube to find the dates corresponding to each week. For example, week 1 in 2020 was 29 December 2019 to 5 January 2020, while week 1 in 2021 was 4 January to 10 January 2021. 
  7. Refer to the explanatory notes on the Methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.

Cerebrovascular diseases

Cerebrovascular diseases refer to a number of conditions such as stroke, cerebral aneurysms and stenosis that affect blood flow and circulation to the brain.

  • 5,287 deaths from cerebrovascular diseases (including strokes) occurred between January and July 2021.
  • This is 361 deaths (6.4%) below the 2015-19 average, comparable to the 5,264 deaths at the same point in 2020.
  • Similar to ischaemic heart disease, deaths from cerebrovascular diseases have been declining over time. 
  1. Cerebrovascular diseases include all deaths where the underlying cause of death is assigned an ICD-10 code between I60-I69.
  2. This graph only includes doctor certified deaths.
  3. This graph is compiled by the date the death occurred.
  4. This data is considered to be provisional and subject to change as additional data is received.
  5. In line with the ISO (International Organization for Standardisation) week date system, weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday. Week 1 of any given year is the week which starts on the Monday closest to 1 January, and for which the majority of its days fall in January (i.e. four days or more). Week 1 therefore always contains the 4th of January and always contains the first Thursday of the year. Using the ISO structure, some years (e.g. 2015 and 2020) contain 53 weeks.
  6. Refer to the weekly data cube to find the dates corresponding to each week. For example, week 1 in 2020 was 29 December 2019 to 5 January 2020, while week 1 in 2021 was 4 January to 10 January 2021. 
  7. Refer to explanatory notes on the Methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.

Respiratory diseases

Respiratory diseases include causes of death such as pneumonia, influenza, and chronic lower respiratory diseases (including emphysema and chronic bronchitis). Deaths due to COVID-19 are not included in this category. COVID-19 deaths are captured using WHO issued emergency codes U07.1 and U07.2 and are not currently grouped with any other diseases, though they are included in the total number of deaths and are presented in the data downloads.

  • There were 7,552 deaths from respiratory diseases between January and July 2021.
  • This is comparable to the 2015-19 average of 7,668 deaths, but 5.4% higher than the 7,164 deaths at the same point in 2020.
  • During July 2021 there were 1,276 deaths due to respiratory diseases, which is 24.5% more than in July 2020, but remains 14.4% below the baseline average.
  1. Respiratory diseases include all deaths where the underlying cause of death is assigned an ICD-10 code between J00-J99.
  2. This graph only includes doctor certified deaths.
  3. This graph is compiled by the date the death occurred.
  4. This data is considered to be provisional and subject to change as additional data is received.
  5. In line with the ISO (International Organization for Standardisation) week date system, weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday. Week 1 of any given year is the week which starts on the Monday closest to 1 January, and for which the majority of its days fall in January (i.e. four days or more). Week 1 therefore always contains the 4th of January and always contains the first Thursday of the year. Using the ISO structure, some years (e.g. 2015 and 2020) contain 53 weeks.
  6. Refer to the weekly data cube to find the dates corresponding to each week. For example, week 1 in 2020 was 29 December 2019 to 5 January 2020, while week 1 in 2021 was 4 January to 10 January 2021. 
  7. Refer to the explanatory notes on the Methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.

Chronic lower respiratory diseases

Chronic lower respiratory diseases include chronic bronchitis, emphysema, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD). Chronic lower respiratory diseases (J40-J47) are a sub-group of respiratory diseases (J00-J99).

  • There were 4,176 deaths from chronic lower respiratory diseases between January and July 2021.
  • This is comparable to the 2015-19 average of 4,195, and but remains 7.2% higher than at the same point in 2020.
  • During July 2021 there were 687 deaths from chronic lower respiratory conditions, which is 27.2% higher than in July 2020, but remains 14.3% below the baseline average. 
  1. Chronic lower respiratory diseases include all deaths where the underlying cause of death is assigned an ICD-10 code between J40-J47.
  2. This graph only includes doctor certified deaths.
  3. This graph is compiled by the date the death occurred.
  4. This data is considered to be provisional and subject to change as additional data is received.
  5. In line with the ISO (International Organization for Standardisation) week date system, weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday. Week 1 of any given year is the week which starts on the Monday closest to 1 January, and for which the majority of its days fall in January (i.e. four days or more). Week 1 therefore always contains the 4th of January and always contains the first Thursday of the year. Using the ISO structure, some years (e.g. 2015 and 2020) contain 53 weeks.

  6. Refer to the weekly data cube to find the dates corresponding to each week. For example, week 1 in 2020 was 29 December 2019 to 5 January 2020, while week 1 in 2021 was 4 January to 10 January 2021. 

  7. Refer to explanatory notes on the Methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.

Influenza and pneumonia

Influenza and pneumonia are acute respiratory diseases often grouped together when compiling leading causes of death. They are two distinct diseases: influenza is a viral infection, while pneumonia can be caused by a virus, bacteria or fungi. Influenza is a common cause of pneumonia.

Influenza deaths are highly seasonal and most commonly occur in Australia between the months of May and September. The timing, length and severity of the influenza season varies considerably from year to year. For this reason, influenza deaths have been excluded from the graph below so pneumonia deaths can be tracked separately.

Influenza and pneumonia (J09-J18) are a subset of respiratory diseases (J00-J99).

  • There were 1,210 deaths due to influenza and pneumonia recorded between January and July 2021. All but two deaths in this category were due to pneumonia. 
  • This is 417 deaths (25.6%) lower than the 2015-19 average, and 193 deaths (13.8%) lower than at the same point in 2020.

Influenza

  • There were two deaths due to influenza in July 2021. These are the first deaths certified as being due to influenza since July 2020. 

Pneumonia

  • The number of deaths due to pneumonia has been largely below average since late April 2020.
  • Between January and July 2021, deaths due to pneumonia were 16.6% below the 2015-19 average and 11.2% below the same point in 2020.
  • During July 2021 there were 249 deaths due to pneumonia, which is 30.4% higher than in July 2020 but remains 15.9% below the baseline average. 
  1. Pneumonia includes all deaths where the underlying cause of death is assigned an ICD-10 code between J12-J18.
  2. This graph only includes doctor certified deaths.
  3. This graph is compiled by the date the death occurred.
  4. This data is considered to be provisional and subject to change as additional data is received.
  5. In line with the ISO (International Organization for Standardisation) week date system, weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday. Week 1 of any given year is the week which starts on the Monday closest to 1 January, and for which the majority of its days fall in January (i.e. four days or more). Week 1 therefore always contains the 4th of January and always contains the first Thursday of the year. Using the ISO structure, some years (e.g. 2015 and 2020) contain 53 weeks.
  6. Refer to the weekly data cube to find the dates corresponding to each week. For example, week 1 in 2020 was 29 December 2019 to 5 January 2020, while week 1 in 2021 was 4 January to 10 January 2021. 
  7. Refer to the explanatory notes on the Methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.

Cancer

Cancer includes malignant neoplasms encompassing carcinomas, sarcomas and lymph and blood cancers.

  • 28,482 deaths from cancer occurred between January and July 2021.
  • This is 6.2% higher than the 2015-19 average, and 2.0% higher than at the same point in 2020.
  • The age standardised death rate for cancer between January and July was 85.5 in 2021, compared to 86.7 in 2020 and a baseline average of 91.4.
  • During July 2021 there were 4,297 deaths due to cancer, which is 2.6% more than in July 2020, and 8.0% higher than the baseline average.
  1. Cancer includes all deaths where the underlying cause of death is assigned an ICD-10 code between C00-C97, D45, D46, D47.1 or D47.3-D47.5.
  2. This graph only includes doctor certified deaths.
  3. This graph is compiled by the date the death occurred.
  4. This data is considered to be provisional and subject to change as additional data is received.
  5. In line with the ISO (International Organization for Standardisation) week date system, weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday. Week 1 of any given year is the week which starts on the Monday closest to 1 January, and for which the majority of its days fall in January (i.e. four days or more). Week 1 therefore always contains the 4th of January and always contains the first Thursday of the year. Using the ISO structure, some years (e.g. 2015 and 2020) contain 53 weeks.
  6. Refer to the weekly data cube to find the dates corresponding to each week. For example, week 1 in 2020 was 29 December 2019 to 5 January 2020, while week 1 in 2021 was 4 January to 10 January 2021.
  7. Refer to the explanatory notes on the Methodology page in this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.

Diabetes

Diabetes includes both Type 1 diabetes and Type 2 diabetes. The majority of diabetes deaths are from Type 2 diabetes.

  • 2,833 deaths from diabetes occurred between January and July 2021.
  • This is 10.5% higher than the 2015-19 average, but comparable to the 2,845 deaths at the same point in 2020.
  • The age standardised death rate for diabetes between January and July was 8.2 in 2021, compared to 8.5 in 2020 and a baseline average of 8.4.
  • During July 2021 there were 463 deaths due to diabetes, which is 6.2% more than in July 2020, and 4.8% higher than the baseline average.
  1. Diabetes includes all deaths where the underlying cause of death is assigned an ICD-10 code between E10-E14.
  2. This graph only includes doctor certified deaths.
  3. This graph is compiled by the date the death occurred.
  4. This data is considered to be provisional and subject to change as additional data is received.
  5. In line with the ISO (International Organization for Standardisation) week date system, weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday. Week 1 of any given year is the week which starts on the Monday closest to 1 January, and for which the majority of its days fall in January (i.e. four days or more). Week 1 therefore always contains the 4th of January and always contains the first Thursday of the year. Using the ISO structure, some years (e.g. 2015 and 2020) contain 53 weeks.
  6. Refer to the weekly data cube to find the dates corresponding to each week. For example, week 1 in 2020 was 29 December 2019 to 5 January 2020, while week 1 in 2021 was 4 January to 10 January 2021.
  7. Refer to the explanatory notes on the Methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.

Dementia, including Alzheimer disease

Dementia, including Alzheimer disease, is the second leading cause of death in Australia and counts of deaths from dementia have increased steadily over the past 20 years. This increase should be taken into consideration when comparing 2020 and 2021 counts against baseline averages.

  • 9,024 deaths from dementia, including Alzheimer disease, occurred between January and July 2021.
  • This is 17.2% higher than the 2015-19 average, and 5.7% higher than at the same point in 2020.
  • The age standardised death rate for dementia between January and July was 24.4 in 2021, compared to 23.9 in 2020 and a baseline average of 23.5.

  • During July 2021 there were 1,492 deaths due to dementia, including Alzheimer disease, which is 16.9% more than in July 2020, and 13.5% higher than the baseline average.

  1. Dementia, including Alzheimer Disease includes all deaths where the underlying cause of death is assigned an ICD-10 code of F01, F03 or G30.
  2. This graph only includes doctor certified deaths.
  3. This graph is compiled by the date the death occurred.
  4. This data is considered to be provisional and subject to change as additional data is received.
  5. In line with the ISO (International Organization for Standardisation) week date system, weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday. Week 1 of any given year is the week which starts on the Monday closest to 1 January, and for which the majority of its days fall in January (i.e. four days or more). Week 1 therefore always contains the 4th of January and always contains the first Thursday of the year. Using the ISO structure, some years (e.g. 2015 and 2020) contain 53 weeks.
  6. Refer to the weekly data cube to find the dates corresponding to each week. For example, week 1 in 2020 was 29 December 2019 to 5 January 2020, while week 1 in 2021 was 4 January to 10 January 2021.
  7. Refer to the explanatory notes on the Methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.

Timeliness and completeness of data

Each death registration in the national mortality dataset has 3 dates:

  • The date on which the death occurred.
  • The date on which the death was registered with the jurisdictional Registry of Births Deaths and Marriages (RBDM).
  • The date on which the death was lodged with the ABS.
     

The time between the occurrence of a death and registration can vary, although in general, deaths certified by a doctor are registered sooner. Coroner certified deaths undergo extensive investigative processes which can delay registration times, and for this reason they are excluded from the provisional mortality reports.

When looking to measure change over time, the completeness of data for the most recent period is important. When data are received each month by the ABS, the lag between the date of death and date of registration means that only 40-50% of reported registrations are of deaths that occurred in the month being reported. The remainder are deaths that occurred in earlier months. After a second month of reporting, approximately 95% of doctor certified registrations have been received. This is considered sufficiently complete to enable meaningful comparison with historical counts, noting that the level of completeness will be higher for the start of any given month than the end of that month.

This pattern of registration and reporting is highlighted in the table below, which also shows the slight variation in reporting timelines by cause of death. This should be considered when comparing 2021 data to the 2015-2019 baseline data.
 

Cause of deathReported at the end of the month the death occurredReported at the end of the month after the death occurredTotal portion reported at the end of the month after the death occurred
All cause

45.8%

48.6%

94.4%

Ischaemic heart disease (I20 – I25)

45.2%

49.2%

94.4%

Cerebrovascular diseases (I60 – I69)

45.4%

49.3%

94.7%

Respiratory diseases (J00 – J99)

45.5%

48.7%

94.2%

Chronic lower respiratory diseases (J40 – J47)

45.4%

48.3%

93.7%

Influenza and pneumonia (J09 – J18)

45.7%

49.2%

94.9%

Cancer (C00 – C97, D45, D56, D47.1, D47.3 – D47.5)

46.9%

48.0%

94.9%

Diabetes (E10 – E14)

43.6%

49.0%

92.7%

Dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease (F01, F03, G30)

46.0%

48.6%

94.6%

a. Percentages are based on the average of 5 years (2015-2019) of receipt of death registrations.
b. This table only includes doctor certified deaths.
c. Data is subject to change.
 

The graph below shows how numbers of deaths for each period have increased over time as additional registrations that occurred in previous months are reported to the ABS. Due to these increases, data for the most recently reported periods should be treated with caution.

Data downloads

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Provisional mortality statistics, Jan 2020 - Jul 2021

Data files

Post-release changes

22/12/21 - Updates were made to correct a number and a month reference in the 'Influenza and pneumonia' section. 

Previous catalogue number

This release previously used catalogue number 3303.0.55.004

Methodology

Provisional Mortality Statistics methodology, Jan 2020 - Jul 2021

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