March key points
Suspension of trend estimates
- Due to the impact of COVID-19 trend estimates have been suspended in this publication back to July 2018.
Balance on goods and services
- In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $10,602m in March 2020, an increase of $6,737m on the surplus in February 2020.
Credits (exports of goods and services)
- In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $5,558m (15%) to $42,417m. Non-rural goods rose $3,540m (15%), non-monetary gold rose $2,474m, rural goods rose $271m (7%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (6%). Services credits fell $727m (9%).
Debits (imports of goods and services)
- In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $1,178m (4%) to $31,815m. Capital goods fell $194m (3%). Non-monetary gold rose $466m (85%), intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $31m and consumption goods rose $10m. Services debits fell $1,492m (19%).
Key figures
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | Feb 20 to Mar 20 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $m | $m | $m | % change | ||
| BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES | |||||
| Trend estimates (a) | na | na | na | na | |
| Seasonally adjusted | 5 046 | 3 865 | 10 602 | 174 | |
| CREDITS (Exports of goods & services) | |||||
| Trend estimates (a) | na | na | na | na | |
| Seasonally adjusted | 39 612 | 36 859 | 42 417 | 15 | |
| DEBITS (Imports of goods & services) | |||||
| Trend estimates (a) | na | na | na | na | |
| Seasonally adjusted | 34 567 | 32 993 | 31 815 | -4 | |
na not available
a. The trend series have been suspended due to the impacts of COVID-19.
COVID-19 and bushfires in March month
Quality assurance undertaken by the ABS confirmed that the COVID-19 pandemic and bushfires did not result in quality impacts to International Trade in Goods and Services statistics for March 2020. For information on the expected economic impacts of COVID-19 and the bushfires, please see the ABS Chief Economist Series paper Measuring natural disasters in the Australian economy.
Suspension of trend estimates
The trend series attempts to measure the underlying behaviour in international trade activity. The method used to calculate trend estimates in Balance of Payments series incorporates observations either side of the reference period, meaning that updated information can influence historical trend estimates. As such, changes to regular patterns in international trade caused by COVID-19 will significantly affect the measurement of the trend series.
It may be some time before the underlying trend in international trade activity can be accurately estimated. The trend series has therefore been suspended back to July 2018 and will be reinstated when more certainty emerges in the underlying trend in international trade.
Seasonally adjusted estimates
International Accounts uses the concurrent seasonal adjustment method, meaning that seasonal factors are re-estimated each time a new data point becomes available. If not appropriately accounted for, unusual real-world events, such as COVID-19, can distort estimates calculated using this method. From March 2020, seasonal factors for series that have been notably impacted by these events will be calculated using data up to and including February 2020, then projected from March 2020 onwards. This approach, known as the forward factor method, ensures that the seasonal factors are not distorted by COVID-19 impacts.