Australia's population estimates by country of birth are compiled annually as at 30 June. These estimates, produced by single year of age and sex, classify the population according to country of birth.
Country of birth estimates at the state and territory level are only available for Census years.
Australia's estimated resident population (ERP) includes all people who usually live in Australia (regardless of nationality, citizenship or legal status), with the exception of foreign diplomatic personnel and their families.
Australia’s population estimates for the period since 1971 are compiled according to the place of usual residence of the population. An explanation of the place of usual residence conceptual basis for population estimates is given in Information Paper: Population Concepts (cat. no. 3107.0.55.006).
The data covers Australia and its states and territories, as defined by the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) Edition 3.
ERP for Other Territories is available from September quarter 1993 onwards. Before then, Jervis Bay Territory was included in the ACT estimate, while Christmas Island and Cocos (Keeling) Islands were excluded from ERP. Norfolk Island has been included in Other Territories since 30 June 2016. Prior to this, the population of Norfolk Island was not part of Australia’s ERP.
The populations of Australian external territories are updated annually to fulfil the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918, but are not part of Australia’s ERP. These external territories are:
The latest estimated resident population (ERP) is based on adjusted 2021 Census counts, updated with quarterly estimates of births, deaths, overseas and interstate migration. Further information on each component can be found in the National, state and territory population methodology page.
Statistics in this release draw extensively on information provided by individuals in the Census, Home Affairs, Medicare, the Department of Defence, and birth and death registrations in each state and territory. Their continued cooperation is very much appreciated: without it, the wide range of statistics published in the ABS on Australia's population would not be available. Information received by the ABS is treated in strict confidence as required by the Census and Statistics Act 1905.
The estimated resident population (ERP) is calculated each quarter by taking the population estimate at the start of the quarter and adding natural increase (births minus deaths), net overseas migration and (in the case of state/territory populations) net interstate migration. These calculations are done for each age-cohort and sex each quarter and for country of birth annually at the national level. This is known as the cohort component method, and uses the demographic balancing equation.
The demographic balancing equation is:
\(P_{t+1} = P_t + B - D +NOM + NIM\) where:
\(P_t =\) the estimated resident population at time point \(t\)
\(P_{t+1}\) = the estimated resident population at time point \(t+1\)
\(B\) = the number of births occurring between \(t\) and \(t+1\)
\(D\) = the number of deaths occurring between \(t\) and \(t+1\)
\(NOM\) = net overseas migration occurring between \(t\) and \(t+1\)
\(NIM\) = net interstate migration occurring between \(t\) and \(t+1\)
At the national level, net interstate migration is zero.
The country of birth estimates for post-censal years are compiled using the Census year data by country of birth as a base. They are then updated annually for each of the components of population change by country of birth: adding births (all Australian), subtracting deaths, and adding the net of overseas migration (overseas migrant arrivals minus overseas migrant departures).
The status of the quarterly estimated resident population (ERP) data changes over time from preliminary to revised to final as new component data becomes available. Preliminary ERP is updated every quarter due to revisions to the component data for earlier quarters. ERP gets marked as revised once it can be expected not to change again until the final update, 22 months after the next Census.
The table below shows the current status of ERP and the components of population change: natural increase, overseas migration and interstate migration. Further information on each component can be found in the National, state and territory population methodology page.
| Quarters | Births and deaths | Overseas migration | Interstate migration | Estimated Resident Population |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1991 - Jun 2021 | Final | Final | Final | FINAL |
| Sep 2021 - Jun 2022 | Revised | Final | Preliminary | REVISED |
| Sep 2022 | Preliminary | Final | Preliminary | PRELIMINARY |
| Dec 2022 - Jun 2023 | Preliminary | Revised | Preliminary | PRELIMINARY |
| Sep 2023 | Preliminary | Preliminary | Preliminary | PRELIMINARY |
The ABS collects statistical information under the authority of the Census and Statistics Act 1905. This requires that statistical output shall not be published or disseminated in a manner that is likely to enable the identification of a particular person or organisation.
Some techniques used to guard against identification or disclosure of confidential information in statistical tables are suppression of sensitive cells, random adjustments to cells with very small values and rounding. In these cases, data may not sum to totals due to the confidentialisation of individual cells.
The statistics in this release have been rounded to the nearest 10 to maintain confidentiality. Where figures have been rounded, discrepancies may occur between sums of component items and totals. All calculations and analysis are based on un-rounded data. Calculations made on rounded data may differ to those published.
The ABS may have other relevant data available on request. Generally, a charge is made for providing this information. Enquiries should be made via the Contact us page on the ABS website.
The following variables for the estimated resident population (ERP) by country of birth data may be made available on request:
The classification of countries used in this release is the ABS' Standard Australian Classification of Countries, 2016. The entire historical series has been backcast using this version of the classification.
Estimated resident population (ERP) data covers Australia and its states and territories, as defined by the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) 2016. For historical changes see the Scope section in the left hand navigation bar.