National Accounts population estimates
The ABS used incorrect population estimates and projections in the Australian National Accounts released on 4 December 2024.
The population estimates and projections were overstated from the June quarter 2023 onwards. The overstatement peaked in the September quarter 2024 at around 80,000 persons (0.3 per cent of total population) seasonally adjusted. In the National Accounts, population estimates and projections are primarily used for calculating per capita measures. The impact on GDP per capita is provided in Table 1.
| Dec-22 | Mar-23 | Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Dec-23 | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What should have been published on 4 December 2024 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| What was published on 4 December 2024 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Difference (percentage points) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
While population estimates and projections are used to calculate some components of GDP, the error was too small to have an impact on GDP. The ABS estimates there was zero impact on quarterly GDP growth rates (to 5 decimal places).
The ABS subsequently released official population statistics on 12 December 2024 (National, state and territory population, June 2024). That release contains the most up to date population estimates and projections which are reproduced in Table 2. These estimates can be used to calculate up to date per capita measures.
| Estimated Resident Population (ERP) | Projection | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Dec-23 | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | |
| Australia ('000) | 26,652.8 | 26,825.4 | 26,951.3 | 27,115.6 | 27,204.8 | 27,358.3 |
Source: ABS June 2024 National, state and territory population - ERP and Population Clock Component projection data. Note: Users can derive GDP per capita on an original basis from population statistics.
The ABS will not reissue the September quarter 2024 National Accounts given the small impact of the error. The figures will be revised in the next release on 5 March 2025.
The reliability of and confidence in key economic statistics is something the ABS takes very seriously. We have quality assurance processes in place to mitigate and reduce the possibility of errors. We will use the lessons learned from this error to continue strengthening our quality assurance systems.