Seasonal rise in payroll jobs into December
Payroll jobs increased 0.5 per cent in the month to 9 December 2023, after relatively little change over the previous month, according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
David Taylor, ABS head of labour statistics, said: “The rise in payroll jobs between 11 November and 9 December was underpinned by further strong growth in the Retail trade industry, through the peak shopping season, accounting for around 40 per cent of the total rise in payroll jobs. This seasonal increase usually peaks at the end of the year, before the number of jobs noticeably falls after Christmas and into January.”
Along with the seasonal increase in Retail trade jobs (up 1.9 per cent), seasonal changes were also seen in other industries, coming into the end of year holiday period. The next largest increases were in Transport, postal and warehousing (up 1.0 per cent) and Arts and recreation services (up 0.9 per cent).
“Weekly data provides useful insights into how the number of jobs changes through the course of the year, industry by industry, leading into the end of year peak. Across late December and January they also show the extent of seasonal change in the labour market, as parents and carers take time off and businesses reduce their operations during the summer holidays,” Mr Taylor said.
During times of high seasonality in the labour market, and in the absence of seasonally adjusted figures, annual estimates can improve the interpretation of estimates. Comparing estimates at similar times in the year reduces the seasonal effect.
“Over the year we have consistently seen annual growth in payroll jobs continue to slow, falling from between 5 to 6 per cent in the first half of 2023, to around 2 to 3.5 per cent in the second half of 2023.”
“However, it is also important to remember that this slower growth follows a particularly strong period of growth through 2022-23,” said Mr Taylor.
Payroll jobs rose in all states and territories
Payroll jobs rose in all eight states and territories over the month, with the strongest rises in Tasmania (up 1.1 per cent), Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia (all up 0.6 per cent).
“Over the month, Retail trade jobs accounted for a large share of total jobs growth across the states and territories,” Mr Taylor said.
Media notes
- The next release will be on 14 March 2024.
- Payroll jobs are not seasonally adjusted, which generally requires at least three years of reasonably stable data. The longstanding seasonally adjusted Labour Force statistics series can aid in the interpretation of labour statistics across periods of greater seasonality, through the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Payroll jobs are predominantly employee jobs paid through payrolls. Some industries, such as Agriculture, forestry and fishing and Construction have high proportions of owner managers who are not included in payroll reporting. See the Scope and coverage section in the Methodology of this release for more information.
- In each release, payroll job estimates are revised as more complete data are received. The magnitude of revisions can vary at some points of the year, such as the start and end of the financial and calendar year in line with changes in the reporting activity of businesses.
- The ABS acknowledges the continued support of the ATO in enabling the ABS to produce weekly insights into the Australian labour market from Single Touch Payroll data.
- When reporting ABS data, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) must be attributed as the source.
- For media requests and interviews, contact the ABS Media Team at media@abs.gov.au (8:30am to 5pm Monday to Friday AEST).
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