Retail volumes fall for the fifth time in six quarters
Australian retail sales volumes fell 0.4 per cent (seasonally adjusted) in March quarter 2024, according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
This follows a rise of 0.4 per cent in December quarter 2023 and a fall of 0.2 per cent in September quarter 2023.
Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics, said: “Retail sales volumes fell for the fifth time in the past six quarters as consumers cut back on buying large household items such as furniture and electronic goods.
“The only rise in volumes over the past 18 months was the December quarter last year as extensive discounting from Black Friday sales boosted volumes.”
Retail sales volumes were down 1.3 per cent compared to March quarter 2023. This is the fourth straight fall in volumes when compared to the same time last year.
Trend estimates from March 2020 to June 2022 are not available due to the degree of disruption and volatility caused by COVID-19. Trend estimates throughout the pandemic period are likely to be unhelpful and potentially misleading for users in interpreting underlying trend in retail activity.
Retail volumes on a per capita basis fell for a seventh straight quarter (-1.0 per cent), down 3.6 per cent compared to this time last year.
“Per capita volumes show retail turnover after the effects of inflation and population growth have been accounted for. Following an unprecedented seven straight falls, it is very clear how much consumers have pulled back on spending in response to cost of living pressures over the past two years.
“With persistent price inflation on non-discretionary essentials like healthcare, education and housing, discretionary retail spending has been squeezed,” Mr Dorber said.
Trend estimates from March 2020 to June 2022 are not available due to the degree of disruption and volatility caused by COVID-19. Trend estimates throughout the pandemic period are likely to be unhelpful and potentially misleading for users in interpreting underlying trend in retail activity.
Retail prices rose 0.6 per cent this quarter, up from a 0.2 per cent rise in the December quarter, based on data from the latest Consumer Price Index.
The fall in retail volumes was driven mostly by the fall in household goods retailing (-2.9 per cent), completely reversing last quarter’s 2.3 per cent rise.
“Consumers spent big on household goods during the pandemic period, with strong sales volumes growth for furniture and electrical goods peaking in December quarter 2021. Since then, this industry has been the most affected by rising cost of living pressures with retail sales volumes falling in seven of the nine quarters since that peak,” Mr Dorber said.
Department stores (-0.4 per cent) was the only other industry to record a fall.
Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (+1.3 per cent) recorded the largest rise in volumes, followed by other retailing (+0.5 per cent) and cafes restaurants and takeaway food services (+0.3 per cent).
Food retailing remained unchanged.
Most states and territories recorded a fall in retail volumes this quarter. The Northern Territory (+0.5 per cent) and Tasmania (+0.3 per cent) were the only states or territories to record a rise.
More detailed industry and state analysis and further information on the statistical methodology is available in Retail Trade, Australia.
The ABS would like to thank businesses for their continued support in responding to our surveys.
Media notes
- Today's release of Retail Trade follows the initial release of March monthly data, and provides more information on the March reference period, including quarterly price and volume data.
- Volume estimates measure changes in value after the direct effects of price changes have been removed. See chain volume measures for more details.
- Revisions to the seasonally adjusted quarterly estimates are due to concurrent methodology, which reflects improvements in the data as changes in the seasonal pattern become clearer and distinct from irregular events. For further information, please refer to the article released last month explaining the effect of changes in the seasonality of retail turnover and the seasonality in retail turnover section of survey impacts and changes.
- Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing seasonal effects to allow comparison of data for adjacent months. See methodology for more details.
- The trend series attempts to measure underlying behaviour in retail activity. It is recommended that trend estimates be used alongside the seasonally adjusted headline measure to analyse and understand underlying activity in retail spending over the longer term. See methodology for more details on trend estimates.
- A media statement on Thursday 23 November 2023 announced that the ABS would be ceasing the publication of Retail Trade. For more information, please visit the Future cessation of the Retail Business Survey and Retail Trade Publication webpage.
- When reporting ABS data you must attribute the Australian Bureau of Statistics (or the ABS) as the source.
- For media requests and interviews, contact the ABS Media Team via media@abs.gov.au (8.30am-5pm Mon-Fri).
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