Consumers cautious as retail sales fall 0.4%
Australian retail turnover fell 0.4 per cent (seasonally adjusted) in March 2024, according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
This followed a rise of 0.2 per cent in February 2024 and a rise of 1.0 per cent in January 2024.
Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics, said: “Consumers pulled back on retail spending in March as cost of living pressures remained high.
“Underlying retail turnover has been flat for the past six months and was up only 0.8 per cent compared to March 2023. Outside of the pandemic period and introduction of the GST, this is the weakest growth on record when comparing turnover to the same time in the previous year.”
Trend estimates from March 2020 to June 2022 are not available due to the degree of disruption and volatility caused by COVID-19. Trend estimates throughout the pandemic period are likely to be unhelpful and potentially misleading for users in interpreting underlying trend in retail activity.
Turnover fell in all industries this month except for food retailing (+0.9 per cent), highlighting the continued underlying weakness in retail spending.
The largest falls were recorded in clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-4.3 per cent) and department stores (-1.6 per cent). Both industries recorded large rises last month that have now been mostly cancelled out by these falls.
“The Taylor Swift-inspired boost in turnover for fashion and accessory retailers last month has proved to be temporary with an instant reversal this month,” Mr Dorber said.
Household goods retailing (-1.4 per cent), other retailing (-0.3 per cent) and cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (-0.2 per cent) also recorded falls.
“Retailers told us that overall trading conditions remain challenging with consumers being cautious in their discretionary spending.
“Consumers continue to experience cost of living pressures with price rises in education, healthcare, housing and insurance – see the March quarter CPI for more information,” Mr Dorber said.
Retail turnover growth was mixed across the country. New South Wales (-1.1 per cent) and Victoria (-0.8 per cent) recorded the largest falls and drove the overall fall this month after recording large rises in February.
“The falls in New South Wales and Victoria are larger than the rises last month when both states benefited from increased spending associated with the Taylor Swift concerts.” Mr Dorber said.
Results across other states and territories were more modest.
“To see the effect of consumer prices on recent turnover growth, it will be important to look at quarterly retail sales volumes which will be released next week,” Mr Dorber said.
Additional information on the March reference period, including quarterly price and volume data, will be released on 7 May 2024.
The ABS would like to thank businesses for their continued support in responding to our surveys.
Media notes
- The leap year day on February 29 has been analysed and accounted for in the retail trade seasonally adjusted and trend estimates. The seasonal adjustment process accounts for this through trading day adjustments. The impact of the extra leap year day will be evident in the original (non-seasonally adjusted) series. For further information please refer to this note.
- A media statement on Thursday 23 November 2023 announced that the ABS would be ceasing the publication of Retail Trade, Australia in August 2025. For more information, please visit the Future cessation of the Retail Business Survey and Retail Trade Publication webpage.
- Revisions to seasonally adjusted estimates are due to concurrent methodology, which reflects improvements in the data as changes in the seasonal pattern become clearer and distinct from irregular events. For further information, please refer to the article released in November explaining the effect of changes in the seasonality of retail turnover and the seasonality in retail turnover section of survey impacts and changes.
- Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing seasonal effects to allow comparison of data for adjacent months. See methodology for more details.
- The trend series attempts to measure underlying behaviour in retail activity. It is recommended that trend estimates be used alongside the seasonally adjusted headline measure to analyse and understand underlying activity in retail spending over the longer term. See methodology for more details on trend estimates.
- When reporting ABS data you must attribute the Australian Bureau of Statistics (or the ABS) as the source.
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