Measuring Non-discretionary and Discretionary Inflation

Uses CPI data to produce measures of Non-discretionary and Discretionary inflation.

Released

25/05/2021

Source

Consumer Price Index, Australia, March 2021

Preface

In November 2020, the ABS used Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to produce two experimental measures of Non-discretionary and Discretionary inflation. Using the same approach, this article extends the analysis of these two measures back to 2005.

After publishing the initial experimental release, the ABS received feedback from users on these measures. Comments stated that they provided a unique insight into inflationary pressures experienced by Australian households. Feedback also acknowledged the subjectivity involved in classifying a good or service as either discretionary or non-discretionary. Overall, there was broad support for producing measures of Non-discretionary and Discretionary inflation.

From the September 2021 quarter, the ABS will be publishing these measures in the regular quarterly CPI release in Table 8. CPI: Analytical Series, Weighted Average of Eight Capital Cities.

Further feedback or questions on the new measures can be sent to prices.statistics@abs.gov.au

Overview

The CPI measures price change for goods and services purchased by Australian households in each of the eight capital cities. This measure of inflation informs monetary and fiscal policy and is used widely by economists and the general community to assess the health of the Australian economy.

An area of interest is whether prices are increasing at the same rate for goods and services that could be considered essential (non-discretionary), compared to goods and services that are more discretionary in nature. To inform this, the ABS classified CPI goods and services into two categories: ‘Non-discretionary’ and ‘Discretionary’.

Analysis of these measures indicates that prices of non-discretionary goods and services increased faster than prices for discretionary goods and services. Over the period 2005/06 to December 2020, cumulative Non-discretionary inflation was 44 per cent, whereas cumulative Discretionary inflation was 32 per cent. Excluding the impact of tobacco (which saw prices increase by more than 400 per cent over the period) resulted in lower Discretionary inflation of 18 per cent.

Figure 1: Cumulative Inflation 2005/06 to December 2020 quarter
	2005/06 - 2020
CPI	38.9
Discretionary	31.8
Discretionary excl. tobacco	18.1
Non-discretionary	43.8

Figure 1: Cumulative Inflation 2005/06 to December 2020 quarter

["","2005\/06 - 2020"]

[["CPI","Discretionary","Discretionary excl. tobacco","Non-discretionary"],[[38.899999999999999],[31.800000000000001],[18.100000000000001],[43.799999999999997]]]

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Method

Defining non-discretionary and discretionary goods and services

There are no international standards or definitions for non-discretionary and discretionary household spending. Deciding whether a good or service meets a basic need (non-discretionary) is somewhat subjective and will differ across households. To categorise the 87 CPI components as either ‘non-discretionary’ or ‘discretionary,’ the ABS developed the following definitions:

Non-discretionary

Goods or services which are purchased because they meet a basic need (food, shelter, healthcare), are required to maintain current living arrangements (car maintenance, school fees), or are a legal obligation (compulsory insurance, stamp duty).

Spending on these goods or services may be less responsive when there are changes in household wealth and incomes, or changes in relative prices.

Discretionary

Goods or services which could be considered ‘optional’ purchases, such as take away meals, alcohol and holidays.

Spending on these goods and services may be more responsive to changes in household wealth and incomes, or changes in relative prices.

Classification

Goods and services were classified in line with the above definitions. Table 1 shows the allocation of the expenditure weight for each CPI group to the Non-discretionary and Discretionary categories. A list of the 87 CPI components classified as either Non-discretionary or Discretionary is provided in the appendix.

Table 1: Weight contribution by CPI group (a)
Weight (%)	CPI	Non-discretionary	Discretionary
All groups	100.0	61.4	38.6
Food and non-alcoholic beverages	17.4	8.4	9.0
Alcohol and tobacco	8.9	0.0	8.9
Clothing and footwear	3.3	0.0	3.3
Housing	24.1	24.1	0.0
Furnishings, household equipment and services	8.8	3.4	5.4
Health	6.3	6.3	0.0
Transport	10.2	7.7	2.5
Communication	2.5	2.5	0.0
Recreation and culture	8.7	0.9	7.8
Education	4.7	3.0	1.7
Insurance and financial services	5.1	5.1	0.0

a) Weights represent the percentage contribution to the All groups CPI following the 2020 re-weight of the CPI

Key Findings

Between 2005 and 2020 Non-discretionary inflation exceeded overall CPI inflation. Price increases in housing, health and education were the main contributors. Figure 2 shows a fall and subsequent rise in Non-discretionary inflation in 2020. This was the result of the introduction of free child care in the June quarter and removal in the September quarter, as well as volatility in automotive fuel prices.

Figure 2 also shows that from 2005 Discretionary inflation rose more slowly than overall CPI inflation. Price falls for goods such as clothing, furniture, household appliances and motor vehicles were the main reason, while price increases for discretionary food has been subdued in recent years.

Tobacco was the biggest contributor to Discretionary inflation, with prices increasing more than 400 per cent since 2005 following annual increases in the tobacco excise. Excluding tobacco reduces Discretionary inflation over the period 2005 to 2020 from 32 per cent to 18 per cent. With ABS data showing that fewer than 15 per cent of Australians are daily smokers, removing the impact of tobacco price increases from Discretionary inflation makes it more representative of the majority of the population.

Figure 2: Non-discretionary vs. Discretionary inflation (2005/06 = 100.0)
	CPI	Discretionary	Non-discretionary	Discretionary excl. tobacco
Jun-05	98.3	99.4	97.3	99.5
Sep-05	99.2	100.1	98.5	100.1
Dec-05	99.7	100.2	99.3	100.2
Mar-06	100.6	100.7	100.4	100.6
Jun-06	102.2	101	102.9	100.9
Sep-06	103.1	101.6	104	101.4
Dec-06	103	102.3	103.4	102.2
Mar-07	103	102.3	103.4	102.1
Jun-07	104.3	102.9	105.2	102.7
Sep-07	105	103.4	106	103.2
Dec-07	106	104.2	107.1	104
Mar-08	107.4	104.2	109.5	103.9
Jun-08	109	105.6	111.2	105.3
Sep-08	110.2	106.1	113	105.8
Dec-08	109.9	106.6	112	106.2
Mar-09	110	107	111.9	106.4
Jun-09	110.6	108	112.2	107.4
Sep-09	111.6	108.5	113.6	107.9
Dec-09	112.2	109.1	114.2	108.6
Mar-10	113.2	108.6	116.3	108
Jun-10	113.9	109.6	116.8	107.8
Sep-10	114.7	110.7	117.5	108.4
Dec-10	115.2	110.7	118.2	108.3
Mar-11	117	110.7	121.2	108.1
Jun-11	118	111.4	122.5	108.7
Sep-11	118.8	112.1	123.3	109.3
Dec-11	118.8	112.3	123.1	109.5
Mar-12	118.9	111.7	123.7	108.7
Jun-12	119.5	112.1	124.6	109
Sep-12	121.1	112.8	126.9	109.6
Dec-12	121.4	112.9	127.3	109.7
Mar-13	121.9	112.2	128.5	108.7
Jun-13	122.3	112.8	128.8	109.1
Sep-13	123.8	114.1	130.6	110.3
Dec-13	124.7	115.1	131.3	111.2
Mar-14	125.4	115.2	132.5	110.8
Jun-14	126	116.2	133.1	111.5
Sep-14	126.6	116.5	133.7	111.7
Dec-14	126.9	117.2	133.6	112
Mar-15	127.1	117.6	133.6	112.3
Jun-15	127.9	117.8	135.1	112.3
Sep-15	128.5	118.6	135.3	112.9
Dec-15	129	120.1	135.1	113.8
Mar-16	128.8	119.8	134.9	113.4
Jun-16	129.2	120	135.8	113.4
Sep-16	130.2	120.7	136.8	113.8
Dec-16	130.9	121.3	137.5	113.7
Mar-17	131.5	121.2	138.7	113.4
Jun-17	131.7	121.4	139	113.5
Sep-17	132.6	122.3	139.7	114
Dec-17	133.4	123	140.8	114
Mar-18	134	122.7	141.9	113.6
Jun-18	134.5	123.2	142.6	113.9
Sep-18	135.1	124.3	142.7	114.9
Dec-18	135.8	125.7	143	115.4
Mar-19	135.8	125.2	143.3	115
Jun-19	136.6	126	144.1	115.6
Sep-19	137.3	127.6	144.2	116.9
Dec-19	138.3	128.8	145	117.2
Mar-20	138.8	128.6	146	116.8
Jun-20	136.1	129.1	141	117
Sep-20	138.3	130.5	143.5	118.1
Dec-20	139.5	132.5	144.2	118.6

Figure 2: Non-discretionary vs. Discretionary inflation (2005/06 = 100.0)

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Figure 3 shows the annual percentage change since 2006. Over this period Non-discretionary inflation increased at an average annual rate of 2.43 per cent compared to 1.80 per cent for Discretionary inflation and 1.07 per cent when excluding tobacco. However, for the past two years, Non-discretionary inflation was lower than Discretionary inflation, due in part to lower housing costs and automotive fuel prices.

It is also noticeable that Discretionary inflation is typically more stable than Non-discretionary inflation, which has several peaks and troughs. Non-discretionary inflation includes automotive fuel and food, which can have significant price rises and falls, and is more likely to be impacted by infrequent price changes, such as for utilities, education and public transport.

Figure 3: Annual percentage change
	CPI	Discretionary	Non-discretionary
Jun-06	4	1.5	5.7
Sep-06	3.9	1.5	5.6
Dec-06	3.3	2.1	4.1
Mar-07	2.4	1.7	3
Jun-07	2.1	2	2.3
Sep-07	1.9	1.8	2
Dec-07	3	1.9	3.6
Mar-08	4.2	1.8	5.8
Jun-08	4.5	2.6	5.7
Sep-08	5	2.6	6.6
Dec-08	3.7	2.3	4.6
Mar-09	2.5	2.7	2.3
Jun-09	1.5	2.3	0.9
Sep-09	1.3	2.2	0.6
Dec-09	2.1	2.3	1.9
Mar-10	2.9	1.5	3.9
Jun-10	3.1	1.5	4.1
Sep-10	2.8	2	3.4
Dec-10	2.7	1.5	3.5
Mar-11	3.3	1.9	4.2
Jun-11	3.6	1.7	4.8
Sep-11	3.5	1.3	5
Dec-11	3.1	1.4	4.2
Mar-12	1.6	0.9	2.1
Jun-12	1.2	0.6	1.7
Sep-12	2	0.7	2.9
Dec-12	2.2	0.5	3.4
Mar-13	2.5	0.5	3.9
Jun-13	2.4	0.7	3.4
Sep-13	2.2	1.1	2.9
Dec-13	2.7	1.9	3.2
Mar-14	2.9	2.7	3.1
Jun-14	3	3	3.3
Sep-14	2.3	2.1	2.3
Dec-14	1.7	1.8	1.7
Mar-15	1.3	2	0.9
Jun-15	1.5	1.4	1.5
Sep-15	1.5	1.8	1.2
Dec-15	1.7	2.5	1.2
Mar-16	1.3	1.9	0.9
Jun-16	1	1.9	0.5
Sep-16	1.3	1.7	1.1
Dec-16	1.5	1	1.8
Mar-17	2.1	1.1	2.8
Jun-17	1.9	1.1	2.4
Sep-17	1.8	1.4	2.1
Dec-17	1.9	1.4	2.4
Mar-18	1.9	1.3	2.3
Jun-18	2.1	1.4	2.6
Sep-18	1.9	1.6	2.1
Dec-18	1.8	2.2	1.5
Mar-19	1.3	2	1
Jun-19	1.6	2.3	1.1
Sep-19	1.7	2.7	1.1
Dec-19	1.8	2.5	1.4
Mar-20	2.2	2.8	1.9
Jun-20	-0.3	2.5	-2.2
Sep-20	0.7	2.3	-0.6
Dec-20	0.9	2.8	-0.6

Figure 3: Annual percentage change

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Expenditure weights comparison

Table 2 compares the CPI weights between 2005 and 2019, as well as the amount of inflation over this period. Changes in expenditure reflect both changes in spending patterns (what and how much households purchase), as well as changes in the relative cost of goods and services.

Table 2 shows that spending on Non-discretionary goods and services increased as a proportion of total spending, from 56.7 per cent to 59.3 per cent. This was predominantly due to an increase in spending on Housing and Education, which saw inflation over this period of over 60 and 80 per cent. Spending for Discretionary goods and services decreased as a proportion of total spending, from 43.3 per cent to 40.7 per cent. This is partly a result of lower inflation, or in some cases, deflation for goods such as clothing and footwear and household appliances.

Table 2: Weighting patterns 2005 vs 2019 (a)
Proportion of Headline CPI	2005 (%)	2019 (%)	2005-2019 (%)
Non-discretionary (b)	56.7	59.3	-
Discretionary	43.3	40.7	-

Groups	CPI Weights (%)	CPI Weights (%)	Cumulative Inflation (%)
Food and non-alcoholic beverages	16.2	15.8	37.3
Alcohol and tobacco	7.1	7.8	111.1
Clothing and footwear	4.1	3.2	-6.1
Housing	20.4	23	64.1
Furnishings, household equipment and services	10.1	8.6	10.1
Health	4.9	5.9	84.4
Transport	13.7	10.7	23.4
Communication	3.5	2.4	-17.5
Recreation and culture	12.1	12.9	10
Education	2.9	4.5	89.2
Insurance and financial services (b)	5.1	5.1	37.3

(a) Weights for 2019 were used rather than 2020 to avoid comparing to a period where spending was impacted by COVID-19.
(b) Excluding deposit and loan facilities. This component was removed as indirectly measured financial services was no longer included in the CPI following a review in 2011.

Appendix

Appendix 1: Classification of Components into Non-discretionary and Discretionary
Group	Non-discretionary	Discretionary
Food and non-alcoholic beverages	Bread	Cakes and biscuits
	Breakfast cereals	Ice cream and other dairy products
	Other cereal products	Snacks and confectionery
	Beef and veal	Waters, soft drinks and juices
	Pork	Restaurant meals
	Lamb and goat	Take away and fast foods
	Poultry
	Other meats
	Fish and other seafood
	Milk
	Cheese
	Fruit
	Vegetables
	Eggs
	Jams, honey and spreads
	Food additives and condiments
	Oils and fats
	Other food products n.e.c.
	Coffee, tea and cocoa
Alcohol and tobacco		Spirits
		Wine
		Beer
		Tobacco
Clothing and footwear		Garments for men
		Garments for women
		Garments for infants and children
		Footwear for men
		Footwear for women
		Footwear for infants and children
		Accessories
		Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing and footwear
Housing	Rents
	New dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers
	Maintenance and repair of the dwelling
	Property rates and charges
	Water and sewerage
	Electricity
	Gas and other household fuels
Furnishings, household equipment and services	Cleaning and maintenance products	Furniture
	Personal care products	Carpets and other floor coverings
	Other non-durable household products	Household textiles
	Child care	Major household appliances
		Small electric household appliances
		Glassware, tableware and household utensils
		Tools and equipment for house and garden
		Hairdressing and personal grooming services
		Other household services
Health	Pharmaceutical products
	Therapeutic appliances and equipment
	Medical and hospital services
	Dental services
Transport	Automotive fuel	Motor vehicles
	Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles
	Spare parts and accessories for motor vehicles
	Other services in respect of motor vehicles
	Urban transport fares
Communication	Postal services
Communication	Telecommunication equipment and services
Recreation and culture	Pets and related products (pet food)	Audio, visual and computing equipment
	Veterinary and other services for pets	Audio, visual and computing media and services
		Books
		Newspapers, magazines and stationery
		Domestic holiday travel and accommodation
		International holiday travel and accommodation
		Equipment for sports, camping and open-air recreation
		Games, toys and hobbies
		Sports participation
		Other recreational, sporting and cultural services
Education	Preschool and primary education	Tertiary education
Education	Secondary education
Insurance and financial services	Insurance
	Deposit and loan facilities (direct charges)
	Other financial services

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