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Impacts from the 2024 Annual National Accounts historical revisions

Released
25/10/2024

The 2024 Annual National Accounts historical revisions process included: improvements to the measurement of digital services; and updated Film and Television capital data from the ABS 2021-22 Flexible Survey. 

The impact to key economic indicators, such as gross domestic product (GDP), were relatively small from the 2024 historical revisions process. The largest changes were to the imports current price series, from improvements in capturing digital services in the Australian economy.

The suite of 2024 historical revisions will appear in the following economic releases:

Australian System of National Accounts, 2023-24 – 25 October 2024

Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, 2023-24 – 20 November 2024 

Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, September quarter 2024 – 3 December 2024

Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, September quarter 2024 – 4 December 2024

Estimates of Industry Level KLEMS Multifactor Productivity, 2022-23 financial year – 10 December 2024

Estimates of Industry Multifactor Productivity, 2023-24 financial year – 22 January 2025

Introduction

Australian National Accounts data are regularly revised. New and updated data sources, classification changes, and changes in methods can all contribute to National Accounts revisions. Figure 1 shows the evolution of an annual estimate, from the first time it is published as the sum of four quarters when the June quarter national accounts are released, through the three supply-use benchmarking ‘open years’, to an estimate which is not revised, unless impacted by a historical revision. 

Figure 1: Revisions to 2022-23 annual estimate of GDP

A flowchart demonstrating how an estimate of GDP is revised across multiple publications.

Flowchart of how annual estimates of GDP are revised.

Sum of four quarters – June quarter reference period in the June quarter publication. The indicator (T) uses a variety of quarterly data sources to produce each measure of GDP. There is a statistical discrepancy between each measure. Estimates for 2022-23. Published September 2023.

Benchmarked sum of four quarters in the 2022-23 Annual Publication. The sum of the four quarters (T) is re-estimated using the new supply-use benchmark for T-1 as the base, which may revise annual GDP. The statistical discrepancy remains. Estimates for 2022-23. Published October 2023.

1st Supply-Use benchmark, 16-month lag – in the 2023-24 Annual Publication. Open year 1. The first supply-use benchmark is estimated. Higher quality annual data sources are used, and all three measures of GDP are balanced for the first time. GDP is revised for T-1. Estimates for 2022-23. Published October 2024.

2nd Supply-Use benchmark, 28-month lag – in the 2024-25 Annual Publication. Open year 2. Supply-use tables remain open to revisions for three years. Revisions to annual source data can affect GDP. Tables are re-balanced. GDP is revised for T-2.  Estimates for 2022-23. Published October 2025.

3rd Supply-Use benchmark, 40-month lag – in the 2025-26 Annual Publication. Open year 3. The final year GDP is open to revisions window. GDP is revised for T-3. Estimates for 2022-23. Published October 2026.

Closed period.  GDP is not revised unless there are targeted historical revisions. Estimates for 2022-23. Beyond October 2026.

Note: The (T) period referred to in the example year above is initially 2022-23.

Every year, the compilation of Annual National Accounts Supply-Use tables can introduce revisions for the three open years as part of the benchmarking process. After this, estimates are closed for further supply-use balancing unless there is an impacting historical revision. Historical revisions are the result of targeted projects to improve estimates, measure emerging areas of economic activity or arise from detailed studies of specific parts of the economy. The historical revisions program assists with maintaining contemporary and relevant national accounts.

The impact of historical revisions can be difficult to isolate for the open three years, because revisions in those years come from regular updates to data sources, classifications and compilation methods as well as the impact of historical revisions. This article separates out historical revisions impacts for all years up to 2022-23.

2024 Historical Revisions

The 2024 round of historical revisions incorporates two improvements:

Improvements to the measurement of digital services

Over the past decade, there has been a substantial increase in digital services being offered and consumed in Australia, such as audiovisual streaming services, internet advertising services and computer software services.  The companies providing these digital services are often owned by non-resident Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) that operate across various countries and have complex operating structures, making it difficult to acquire data on the creation, production and consumption of these services. From 2016, the Multinational Anti-Avoidance Law, the diverted profits tax, and the application of GST on imported services and digital products were progressively introduced, which provided new data source opportunities. Using these data, the ABS has been able to improve international trade of digital services estimates, within the National and International Accounts. These improvements have resulted in revisions to international trade statistics for the period 2009-10 to 2022-23 (inclusive) and revisions to gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and household final consumption expenditure (HFCE). The revisions are larger between 2014-15 to 2022-23 as that is the period when imported digital services experienced rapid growth.

The improved methodology of capturing digital services will be implemented in the September 2024 quarterly release of both the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position; and the Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product. Further details regarding this change will be included in the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position release on 3 December 2024. 

Film and Television 2021-22 Flexible Survey capital estimates

The ABS has aligned the value of GFCF on Artistic originals with the estimates from the ABS 2021-22 Film, Television and Digital Games publication for the period 2016-17 to 2018-19 (inclusive). The previous iteration of the Film, Television and Digital Games publication was released for the 2015-16 reference period. Between the two publications, Artistic originals estimates between 2016-17 and 2018-19 were extrapolated using the 2015-16 publication and other indicators. 

Revisions to GDP

Figure 2 shows the overall impact of revisions to annual percentage change in GDP in volume terms. All years prior to 2022-23 incor­­porate the impacts of historical revisions only, while 2022-23 incorporates the impacts of the Supply-Use benchmarking and the historical revisions.

From 1994-95 to 2022-23, the average annual growth rate was revised from ­­3.0% to 3.1%. This was driven by the 2022-23 period, which was revised upwards 0.4 percentage points with the incorporation of the latest Supply-Use benchmark.

Revisions to Expenditure

Imports

The incorporation of the improved digital services data revised imports in both current price and chain volume terms between 2009-10 to 2022-23. Figure 3 shows the impact of the revisions to the annual percentage change in imports in volume terms.

Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)

Annual revisions to Private GFCF in chain volume measures are shown in Figure 4. 

Private GFCF revisions were driven by the improvements to digital services data between 2009-10 to 2021-22. The 2022-23 revision was driven by the incorporation of the latest Supply-Use benchmark.

Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) on computer software

Revisions to annual Private GFCF on computer software in chain volume measures are shown in Figure 5.
Private GFCF on computer software revisions were driven by the improvements to digital services data between 2009-10 to 2021-22. The 2022-23 revision was driven by the incorporation of the latest Supply-Use benchmark.

Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE)

Revisions to HFCE in chain volume measures are shown in Figure 6.

HFCE revisions were driven by the improvements to digital services data between 2009-10 to 2021-22. The 2022-23 revision was driven by the incorporation of the latest Supply-Use benchmark.

Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE) on goods for recreation and culture

Revisions to HFCE on goods for recreation and culture in chain volume measures are shown in Figure 7. 

HFCE on goods for recreation and culture revisions were driven by the improvements to digital services data between 2009-10 to 2022-23.

Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE) on services for recreation and culture

Revisions to HFCE on services for recreation and culture in chain volume measures are shown in Figure 8.

HFCE on services for recreation and culture revisions were driven by the improvements to digital services data between 2012-13 to 2022-23.

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