Provisional Mortality Statistics

Deaths for 2024 will have two comparisons points - they will be compared to deaths occurring in 2023 and 2022. 

This publication does not provide official estimates of excess mortality. The ABS publishes official excess mortality estimates in the report Measuring Australia’s excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic until December 2023’.

Age-standardised death rates can be accessed via the data downloads tab in this publication. 

Counts of deaths for 2015-2023 are included in the historical data cubes of the data downloads section of this report. Customised datasets are able to be created from these data cubes. 

The ABS publishes two regular reports that provide preliminary information on mortality - Provisional Mortality Statistics and Deaths due to Selected acute respiratory infections. These reports provide information on different time periods and serve different purposes.

Provisional Mortality Statistics focus on monitoring patterns of mortality (by all-causes and specified leading causes of death) and highlight any changes potentially associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Data must be sufficiently complete to detect such changes, and as such these reports are only released once the majority of deaths that occurred in a particular period have been registered and reported.

Deaths due to COVID-19, influenza and RSV in Australia articles focus on all deaths registered and reported with these acute respiratory infections written on the death certificate up until a specified time. These articles include important information about these acute respiratory infection certified deaths, including demographic details. While it is recognised data will be incomplete, it can still indicate emerging trends or changes among these deaths. The most recent article on deaths due to these selected acute respiratory disease, that occurred and were registered up until 30 September 2024 can be accessed through the articles link in the previous publication.

For all deaths:

• In 2024, there were 126,003 deaths that occurred by 31 August and were registered by 31 October. This is 3,258 deaths (2.7%) more than in 2023, but 3,746 (2.9%) fewer than in 2022.
• 16,718 deaths occurred in August 2024. This is 727 deaths (4.5%) more than in 2023, but 1,047 (5.9%) fewer than in 2022.
• 14,732 of the deaths occurring in August 2024 were doctor certified and 1,986 were coroner referred.

In October 2024, the ABS received 16,706 death registrations. Of these, 16,618 deaths occurred in 2024, 55 occurred in 2023 and the remaining 33 occurred in 2022 or earlier years.

Deaths are presented by counts only. Counts of death do not account for changes in population.

The following analysis is based only on doctor certified deaths (i.e. coroner referred deaths are not included). Any changes in patterns of coroner referral could affect counts of doctor certified deaths. Some conditions have higher coroner referral rates (ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases and to a lesser extent, respiratory diseases and diabetes) so counts for those conditions would be more likely to be affected by such changes.

• In August 2024 there were 307 deaths due to COVID-19 that were certified by a doctor, down from 647 deaths in June and 475 deaths in July. The 307 deaths in August 2024 were more than double the 151 deaths in August 2023 but less than a third of the 1,082 deaths in August 2024. Between January and August 2024 there have been 3,032 deaths due to COVID-19 that were certified by a doctor. This is 7.8% fewer than the 3,289 deaths in 2023 and 61.2% fewer than the 7,810 deaths in 2022.
• As the pandemic has progressed the number of people dying 'with' COVID-19 has increased. In August 2024 there were 62 people who died with COVID-19 being identified (via death certificates) as a contributing factor to their death (ie. COVID-19 was certified on the death certificate but it was not the underlying cause of death).

• Deaths due to respiratory diseases (excluding COVID-19) in August 2024 were 20.7% higher than in 2023 and 18.1% higher than in 2022. There were 196 deaths due to influenza in August 2024, a large increase compared to flu mortality in August of 2023 (32 deaths) and 2022 (14 deaths). Deaths due to chronic respiratory diseases and pneumonia were also higher in August 2024 than in 2023 or 2022.
• For the year to August 2024, respiratory disease deaths were 14.0% higher than 2023 and 12.5% higher than in 2022.  There have been more than twice as many influenza deaths (628) between January and August in 2024 than in the same period of 2023 (275 deaths) or 2022 (271 deaths). Deaths due to chronic respiratory diseases and pneumonia are also well above the levels recorded in 2023 and 2022.
• Deaths due to dementia in August 2024 were 13.6% higher than in 2023 and 2.0% higher than in 2022. For the year to August 2024, deaths due to dementia were 5.3% higher than in 2023 and comparable to the number recorded in 2022.
• Deaths due to ischaemic heart disease, other cardiac conditions, cerebrovascular diseases and diabetes were all lower in August 2024 than in 2022 or 2023.

The ABS codes an underlying cause of death (UCOD) for all deaths in the national mortality dataset. The underlying cause of death is defined as the disease, condition or external event that started the chain of events leading to death. International coding rules are applied to disease and conditions appearing on the medical certificate of cause of death (MCCD) to assign the UCOD. A disease or condition must be certified on the MCCD to be coded by the ABS. If COVID-19, influenza or RSV is listed as the underlying cause of death, the death is considered to be been caused by the virus. 

The following table shows the number of deaths due to acute respiratory diseases since 2022. This table also includes deaths certified by a coroner, meaning the number of deaths may differ from analysis on doctor-certified deaths. 

• The number of deaths from COVID-19 in August 2024 (310) has continued to decline from the peak of 674 deaths recorded in June.
• There have been 199 deaths due to influenza in August 2024, a slight decline from the 212 deaths recorded in July. These levels are well above those seen in 2022 or 2023, but are comparable to the 195 and 196 deaths recorded in July and August 2019, and well below the 420 and 503 deaths recorded in August and September 2017.
• The number of deaths due to RSV appears to have peaked in June 2024 and has declined in July and August to levels comparable to 2022 and 2023.

The table below shows the number of acute-respiratory associated deaths where the person has died “with” the virus (a person has died from another cause but the viral illness contributed to death).

• There are more deaths from COVID-19 and Influenza than with these conditions. For RSV, there are substantially more people who died with RSV than from RSV.
• There have been more deaths with RSV in each month of 2024 (to June) than in the corresponding month in 2022 or 2023. Deaths with RSV have declined in July and August to levels comparable to 2022 and 2023.
• There were fewer deaths with COVID-19 in each of the first six months of 2024 than in the corresponding month in 2022 or 2023. The number of deaths with COVID-19 in June 2024 (180) was the highest number since June 2023 (199). Since the June 2024 peak the number of deaths with COVID-19 has declined to 120 deaths in July and 62 deaths in August.

This release previously used catalogue number 3303.0.55.004