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Provisional Mortality Statistics

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Provisional deaths data for measuring changes in patterns of mortality

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Reference period
Jan - Sep 2022
Released
22/12/2022
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Key statistics

  • In 2022, there were 144,650 deaths that occurred by 30 September and were registered by 30 November, which is 19,986 (16.0%) more than the historical average.
  • The age-standardised death rate (SDR) for September 2022 was 43.9 deaths per 100,000 people. September is the first month that the rate for 2022 is below the baseline average (44.8).
  • There were 232 deaths due to COVID-19 in October (see article).

Data released in January

The usual Provisional Mortality report and COVID-19 mortality article were not published in January. Instead, a short article linked here was published including only summary content on:

All-cause mortality:

  • Number of deaths occurring by 31 October and registered by 31 December 2022.
  • limited breakdown by sex, age groups and state of registration.

COVID-19 mortality:

  • Number of deaths from or with COVID-19 registered by 31 December 2022.
  • Deaths from or with COVID-19 as a proportion of all deaths registered by 31 December 2022.

This output did not include data downloads.

The Provisional Mortality report will return to the usual format with the next publication in February 2023.

Baseline comparisons

Throughout this report, counts of deaths are compared to an average number of deaths for previous years. In this report, data for 2021 is compared to an average number of deaths recorded over the 5 years from 2015-2019 as was the case in previous publications. Data for 2022 is compared to a baseline comprising the years 2017-2019 and 2021. 2020 is not included in the baseline for 2022 data because it included periods where numbers of deaths were significantly lower than expected.  Counts of deaths for 2015-2021 are included in the baseline datacubes of the data downloads section of this report. 

These average or baseline counts serve as a proxy for the expected number of deaths, so comparisons against baseline counts can provide an indication of whether mortality is higher or lower than expected in a given year. The minimum and maximum counts are also included to provide an indication of the range of previous counts. Minimums and maximums for any given week can be from any of the years included in the baseline.

While this publication can provide an indication of where counts of deaths are above or below expectations, it does not provide official estimates of excess mortality. Using the number of deaths from the previous years as the predictor for the expected number of deaths does not take into account changes in population size and age-structures of that population, as well as expected improvements in mortality rates over time. Age-standardised death rates can be accessed via the data downloads tab in this publication. 

COVID-19 mortality

The ABS publishes two regular reports that provide preliminary information on mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, Provisional Mortality Statistics and COVID-19 Deaths in Australia articles. These reports provide information on different time periods and serve different purposes.

Provisional Mortality Statistics focus on monitoring patterns of mortality (by all-causes and specified leading causes of death) and highlight any changes potentially associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Data must be sufficiently complete to detect such changes, and as such these reports are only released once the majority of deaths that occurred in a particular period have been registered and reported.   

COVID-19 Mortality in Australia articles focus on all COVID-19 deaths registered and reported up until a specified time. These articles include important information about COVID-19 deaths, including demographic details, comorbidities and consequences of the disease. While it is recognised data will be incomplete, it can still indicate emerging trends or changes among these deaths. The most recent article on COVID-19 mortality covering deaths that occurred and were registered up until 30 November 2022 can be accessed through the articles link on this page. 

On 16 November an article examining COVID-19 mortality was published. This article included deaths that were registered up until 30 September 2022 and explored how the number and rate of deaths for different population groups varied over the course of the pandemic.

Australian deaths by week

All-cause deaths

Tracking the number of deaths against historical averages for similar time periods provides an initial indication of when a change in the pattern of mortality may occur. This is of particular relevance because of the many potential public health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Note: There is a recent change in the way this graph is presented. Previously, the number of COVID-19 infections were reported alongside deaths. With changes in the way infections are detected (i.e. the use of both Rapid Antigen Tests (RAT) and Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests) and reported the graph was no longer considered robust for measuring the pattern of mortality against infection rates. Instead, the number of overall deaths and the number of overall deaths without COVID-19 as an underlying cause of death are presented. This provides an indication of how COVID-19 has contributed to the pattern of mortality over time. 

For all deaths:

  • In 2022, there were 144,650 deaths that occurred by 30 September and were registered by 30 November. This is 19,986 deaths (16.0%) more than the baseline average.
  • In September there were 15,489 deaths, 957 (6.6%) above the historical average. 
  • 13,675 of the deaths occurring in September 2022 were doctor certified and 1,814 were coroner referred.
  • The age-standardised death rate (SDR) for September 2022 was 43.9 deaths per 100,000 people. September is the first month that the rate for 2022 is below the baseline average (44.8). 

Deaths are presented by counts only. Counts of death do not account for changes in population. See data downloads for weekly and monthly age-standardised death rate calculations. 

  1. Data is by occurrence.
  2. Data is provisional and subject to change.
  3. Weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday as per the ISO week date system. Refer to 'Weekly comparisons' on the methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph.
  4. The baseline includes deaths from 2015-19 (for 2021) and from 2017-19 and 2021 (for 2022).

Mortality by selected causes of death

Cause-specific mortality

The following analysis is based only on doctor certified deaths (i.e. coroner referred deaths are not included). Any changes in patterns of coroner referral could affect counts of doctor certified deaths. Some conditions have higher coroner referral rates (ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases and to a lesser extent, respiratory diseases and diabetes) so counts for those conditions would be more likely to be affected by such changes.

COVID-19

  • Between January and September 2022 there have been 8,160 deaths due to COVID-19 that were certified by a doctor. 420 of these deaths occurred in September, 646 (60.6%) lower than in August.
  • As the pandemic has progressed the number of people dying 'with' COVID-19 has increased. In September 175 people died with COVID-19 as a contributing factor to their death. (ie. COVID-19 was certified on the death certificate but it was not the underlying cause of death).

Other causes of death

  • Deaths due to dementia including Alzheimer's disease were 3.1% above the baseline average in September, and 16.3% above the baseline average for the year to September. The 1,371 dementia deaths in September 2022 were 292 (18.1%) lower than in August 2022. 
  • The age-standardised death rate for deaths due to dementia was 3.4 per 100,000 people in September. This compares to a baseline average rate of 3.6.
  • Deaths due to diabetes were 12.1% above the baseline average in September, and were 19.2% higher than the average for the year to September. The 471 diabetes deaths in September were 31 (6.2%) lower than in August 2022. 
  • The age-standardised death rate for deaths due to diabetes was 1.3 per 100,000 people in September. This is the same as the baseline average rate of 1.3.
  • While the number of deaths due to cancer was 4.2% above the baseline average in September, the age standardised rate of 11.8 per 100,000 people was below the baseline average rate of 12.3.
  • Deaths due to cerebrovascular disease were 2.8% lower when compared to the average count in September. 

  • There were 234 deaths due to influenza and pneumonia in September. Of these deaths, 4 were due to influenza (compared to a baseline average of 162) and 230 were due to pneumonia (compared to a baseline average of 242). Deaths due to pneumonia were 5.0% below the baseline average. 

  • There have been 274 doctor certified deaths due to influenza between January and September 2022, which is 45.8% below the baseline average.

  • Overall deaths due to respiratory diseases remain low in September at 12.8% below average. 

Doctor certified deaths by cause, September 2022
   September 2022September baseline averageJan - Sep 2022Jan - Sep baseline average
Cancer4,0793,91637,81035,699
Dementia1,3171,27812,99111,174
Respiratory diseases1,2861,47510,76610,845
 Chronic lower respiratory diseases7217565,9745,893
 Influenza and pneumonia2344042,0012,364
  Pneumonia2302421,7271,858
Ischaemic heart disease1,2451,28511,39911,099
Cerebrovascular diseases8038267,1057,234
Diabetes4714204,2733,584
COVID-19420na8,160na

a. Only doctor certified deaths are included.
b. Data is by date of occurrence.
c. Weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday as per the ISO week date system. Refer to the section 'Weekly comparisons' in the methodology for more information.
d. The baseline includes deaths from 2017-19 and 2021 (for 2022) and from 2015-19 (for 2021).

Timeliness and completeness of data

Each death registration in the national mortality dataset has 3 dates:

  • The date on which the death occurred.
  • The date on which the death was registered with the jurisdictional Registry of Births Deaths and Marriages (RBDM).
  • The date on which the death was lodged with the ABS.
     

When looking to measure change over time, the completeness of data for the most recent period is important. When data is received each month by the ABS, the lag between the date of death and the date of registration means that approximately 40-50% of reported registrations are of deaths that occurred in the month being reported. The remainder are deaths that occurred in earlier months.

For deaths which are doctor certified, approximately 95% of registrations are received after a second month of reporting, while for coroner certified deaths, the proportion of registrations reported after a second month is lower (approximately 78%). This is because it takes longer for coroners to certify deaths due to the complexity of investigations.

As coroner referred deaths make up a smaller proportion of all deaths (approximately 11-14%) their inclusion in all-cause data only reduces the overall completeness by around 2%. This should be considered when making comparisons with historical counts, noting also that the level of completeness will be higher for the start of any given month than the end of that month. 

This pattern of registration and reporting is highlighted in the table below, which also shows the slight variation in reporting timelines by cause of death. 

Estimated completeness of death registrations received by the ABS (a)(b)(c)
Cause of death

Total proportion reported at the end of the month the death occurred (%)

Total proportion reported at the end of the month after the death occurred (%)

Total proportion reported at the end of two months after the death occurred (%)

All cause - doctor and coroner certified43.192.897.2
All cause - doctor certified only45.794.998.4
All cause - coroner certified only24.777.888.4
Ischaemic heart disease (I20 – I25)45.294.998.4
Cerebrovascular diseases (I60 – I69)45.195.298.6
Respiratory diseases (J00 – J99)45.895.598.7
Chronic lower respiratory diseases (J40 – J47)45.494.398.2
Influenza and pneumonia (J09 – J18)45.795.598.9
Cancer (C00 – C97, D45, D46, D47.1, D47.3 – D47.5)46.995.498.6
Diabetes (E10 – E14)43.993.097.3
Dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease (F01, F03, G30)46.295.498.8

a. Percentages are based on the date registrations were received by the ABS for deaths that occurred in 2017-2019 and 2021.
b. Only doctor certified deaths are included for cause-specific data.
c. Data is provisional and subject to change.
 

The graphs below show how numbers of deaths for each period have increased over time as additional registrations that occurred in previous months are reported to the ABS. Due to these increases, data for the most recently reported periods should be treated with caution.

Data downloads

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Provisional Mortality Statistics, Jan - Sep 2022

Data files

Previous catalogue number

This release previously used catalogue number 3303.0.55.004

Methodology

Provisional Mortality Statistics methodology, Jan - Sep 2022

Articles