Data presented in this report are provisional and are not comparable with the annual Deaths and Causes of Death datasets.
Read more in the Methodology.
Deaths published in this report occurred between 1 January and 24 November.
Provisional deaths data for measuring changes in patterns of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery period
Data presented in this report are provisional and are not comparable with the annual Deaths and Causes of Death datasets.
Read more in the Methodology.
Deaths published in this report occurred between 1 January and 24 November.
Excess mortality is an epidemiological concept typically defined as the difference between the observed number of deaths in a specified time period and the expected numbers of deaths in that same time period. Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19.
Throughout this report, counts of deaths for 2020 are compared to an average number of deaths recorded over the previous 5 years (2015-2019). These average or baseline counts serve as a proxy for the expected number of deaths, so comparisons against baseline counts can provide an indication of excess mortality. The minimum and maximum counts from 2015-19 are also included to provide an indication of the range of previous counts. Minimums and maximums for any given week can be from any of the five years from 2015-19.
Tracking the number of doctor certified deaths against historic averages provides an indication of when excess deaths may occur. In 2020, this is of particular relevance because of the many potential public health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The number of COVID-19 infections by week in Australia is highlighted alongside total deaths to enable a comparison of the timelines for the pandemic with changes in numbers of deaths. Over the period from 1 January through to 24 November, the first peak of COVID-19 infections in Australia was recorded from mid-March to mid-April. Numbers were then low through to mid-June before rising to a peak in late July and early August as infection rates in Victoria increased. Infections declined from mid August as the Victorian lockdown controlled community transmission.
Note: This analysis does not include coroner referred deaths. Any changes in patterns of coroner referral could affect counts of doctor certified deaths. Some conditions have higher coroner referral rates (ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases and to a lesser extent respiratory diseases and diabetes) so counts for those conditions would be more likely to be affected by such changes.
Ischaemic heart disease is the leading cause of death in Australia. The category includes acute conditions such as myocardial infarction and chronic conditions such as coronary atherosclerosis.
Cerebrovascular diseases refer to a number of conditions such as stroke, cerebral aneurysms and stenosis that affect blood flow and circulation to the brain.
Respiratory diseases include causes of death such as pneumonia, influenza, and chronic lower respiratory diseases (including emphysema and chronic bronchitis). Deaths due to COVID-19 are not included in this category. COVID-19 deaths are captured using WHO issued emergency codes U07.1 and U07.2 and are not currently grouped with any other diseases, though they are included in the total number of deaths.
Chronic lower respiratory diseases include chronic bronchitis, emphysema, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD). Chronic lower respiratory diseases are a sub-group of respiratory diseases (J00-J99).
Influenza and pneumonia are acute respiratory diseases often grouped together when compiling leading causes of death. They are two distinct diseases: influenza is a viral infection, while pneumonia can be caused by a virus, bacteria or fungi. Influenza is a common cause of pneumonia.
Influenza deaths are highly seasonal and most commonly occur in Australia between the months of May and September. The timing, length and severity of the influenza season varies considerably from year to year. For this reason, influenza deaths have been excluded from the graph below so pneumonia deaths can be tracked separately.
Influenza and pneumonia are a subset of respiratory diseases (J00-J99).
Influenza
Pneumonia
Cancer includes malignant neoplasms encompassing carcinomas, sarcomas and lymph and blood cancers.
Diabetes includes both Type 1 diabetes and Type 2 diabetes. The majority of diabetes deaths are from Type 2 diabetes.
Dementia, including Alzheimer disease, is the second leading cause of death in Australia and counts of deaths from dementia have increased steadily over the past 20 years. This increase should be taken into consideration when comparing 2020 counts against baseline averages.
Each death registration in the national mortality dataset has 3 dates:
The time between the occurrence of a death and registration can vary, although in general, deaths certified by a doctor are registered sooner. Coroner certified deaths undergo extensive investigative processes which can delay registration times, and for this reason they are excluded from the provisional mortality reports.
When looking to measure change over time, the completeness of data for the most recent period is important. When data are received each month by the ABS, the lag between the date of death and date of registration means that only 40-50% of reported registrations are of deaths that occurred in the month being reported. The remainder are deaths that occurred in earlier months. After a second month of reporting, approximately 95% of doctor certified registrations have been received. This is considered sufficiently complete to enable meaningful comparison with historic counts, noting that the level of completeness will be higher for the start of any given month than the end of that month.
This pattern of registration and reporting is highlighted in the table below, which also shows the slight variation in reporting timelines by cause of death. This should be considered when comparing 2020 data to the 2015-2019 baseline data.
Cause of death | Reported at the end of the month the death occurred | Reported at the end of the month after the death occurred | Total portion reported at the end of the month after the death occurred |
---|---|---|---|
All cause | 45.8% | 48.6% | 94.4% |
Ischaemic heart disease (I20 – I25) | 45.2% | 49.2% | 94.4% |
Cerebrovascular diseases (I60 – I69) | 45.4% | 49.3% | 94.7% |
Respiratory diseases (J00 – J99) | 45.5% | 48.7% | 94.2% |
Chronic lower respiratory diseases (J40 – J47) | 45.4% | 48.3% | 93.7% |
Influenza and pneumonia (J09 – J18) | 45.7% | 49.2% | 94.9% |
Cancer (C00 – C97, D45, D56, D47.1, D47.3 – D47.5) | 46.9% | 48.0% | 94.9% |
Diabetes (E10 – E14) | 43.6% | 49.0% | 92.7% |
Dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease (F01, F03, G30) | 46.0% | 48.6% | 94.6% |
a. Percentages are based on the average of 5 years (2015-2019) of receipt of death registrations.
b. This table only includes doctor certified deaths.
c. Data is subject to change.
The graph below shows how numbers of deaths for each period have increased over time as additional registrations that occurred in previous months are reported to the ABS. Due to these increases, data for the most recently reported periods should be treated with caution.
Updates to this report will be released on a monthly basis. Tracking of all doctor certified deaths and deaths by specified causes will continue for the 2020 reference period.
Each new report will include those deaths that have been registered and reported to the ABS since the previous report. As some of those deaths will have occurred in time periods covered in previous reports, the counts of deaths for those time periods will change from one report to the next.
Numbers of deaths cannot be aggregated across months to calculate a quarterly or annual count of deaths, as additional deaths for any given reference period can be registered and reported many months after the date on which they occur.
This release previously used catalogue number 3303.0.55.004