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Provisional Mortality Statistics

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Provisional deaths data for measuring changes in patterns of mortality

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Reference period
Jan - Jul 2023
Released
27/10/2023
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Key statistics

  • There were 16,313 deaths which occurred in July 2023. This is 10.8% less than in July 2022.

  • The death rate for July 2023 was 45.2 per 100,000 people, the lowest July rate since 2020.

  • COVID-19 caused 147 deaths in August, down from 319 in July (see article).

Baseline comparisons

The purpose of a baseline is to provide a typical year (or combination of years) to compare the current year to. Deaths for 2023 will have two comparisons points - they will be compared to both deaths occurring in 2022 and a baseline period consisting of the average number of deaths occurring in the years of 2017-2019, 2021.

There were 190,775 deaths which occurred in 2022. This is significantly higher than usual and is not considered to be a typical year for mortality in Australia. Therefore 2022 has not been included in the baseline average and is instead presented separately in graphs and tables. The baseline average presented in this report remains as the average of the years 2017-19 and 2021. 2020 is not included in the baseline for 2022 data because it included periods where numbers of deaths were significantly lower than expected and is similarly not considered to be a typical year for mortality in Australia.  

These counts serve as a proxy for the expected number of deaths, so comparisons against baseline or the previous year can provide an indication of whether mortality is higher or lower than expected in a given year. The minimum and maximum baseline counts are also included to provide an indication of the range of previous years. Minimums and maximums for any given week can be from any of the years included in the baseline.

While this publication can provide an indication of where counts of deaths are above or below expectations, it does not provide official estimates of excess mortality. Using the number of deaths from the previous years as the predictor for the expected number of deaths does not take into account changes in population size and age-structures of that population, as well as expected improvements in mortality rates over time.

Official mortality estimates can be found in the article Measuring Australia's excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic until the first quarter 2023. It presents weekly and annual official excess mortality estimates for Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic until the first quarter 2023 for Australia and states and territories.

Age-standardised death rates can be accessed via the data downloads tab in this publication. 

Counts of deaths for 2015-2022 are included in the baseline data cubes of the data downloads section of this report. Customised baselines are able to be created from these data cubes. 

COVID-19 mortality

The ABS publishes two regular reports that provide preliminary information on mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, Provisional Mortality Statistics and COVID-19 Deaths in Australia articles. These reports provide information on different time periods and serve different purposes.

Provisional Mortality Statistics focus on monitoring patterns of mortality (by all-causes and specified leading causes of death) and highlight any changes potentially associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Data must be sufficiently complete to detect such changes, and as such these reports are only released once the majority of deaths that occurred in a particular period have been registered and reported.   

COVID-19 Mortality in Australia articles focus on all COVID-19 deaths registered and reported up until a specified time. These articles include important information about COVID-19 deaths, including demographic details, comorbidities and consequences of the disease. While it is recognised data will be incomplete, it can still indicate emerging trends or changes among these deaths. The most recent article on COVID-19 mortality covering deaths that occurred and were registered up until 30 September 2023 can be accessed through the articles link on this page. The content of the article this month has been revised to examine how trends have changed during the pandemic period.

Australian deaths by week

All-cause deaths

Tracking the number of deaths against historical averages for similar time periods provides an initial indication of when a change in the pattern of mortality may occur. This is of particular relevance because of the many potential public health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

For all deaths:

  • In 2023, there were 106,078 deaths that occurred by 31 July and were registered by 30 September. This is 11,436 deaths (12.1%) more than the baseline average, but 5,747 (5.1%) less than in 2022.
  • Between March and May there were a similar number of deaths in 2023 as there were in 2022. 
  • The number of deaths occurring in June and (particularly) July has been considerably lower in 2023 compared to the same period in 2022.
  • In July 2023 there were 16,313 deaths, 5.7% more than the baseline average but 10.8% less than in 2022.
  • 14,365 of the deaths occurring in July 2023 were doctor certified and 1,948 were coroner referred.
  • The age-standardised death rate (SDR) for July was 45.2 deaths per 100,000 people, below both the baseline average for this period (47.9) and the rate for 2022 (51.9). This is the lowest SDR occurring for a month of July since the start of the pandemic, when mortality was at an all-time low in Australia. In July 2020, the SDR was 43.5, a historical low.

Deaths are presented by counts only. Counts of death do not account for changes in population. See data downloads for weekly and monthly age-standardised death rate calculations. 

  1. Data is by occurrence.
  2. Data is provisional and subject to change.
  3. Weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday as per the ISO week date system. Refer to 'Weekly comparisons' on the methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph. Week 1 ended 9 Jan 2022 and 8 Jan 2023.
  4. The baseline includes deaths from 2017-19 and 2021.

Age-specific death rates

The following table shows age-specific death rates (deaths per 100,000 population) for different age groups by sex in July and for January to July 2023, presented with both those from 2022 and the baseline average.

July 2023

  • Across all age groups for both males and females, death rates were lower in July 2023 than in 2022.
  • For females aged 0-44 years and 45-64 years the age-specific death rate was higher than the baseline average in July. For all other age groups, the rate was lower than the baseline average.
  • For all age groups, the male death rate is higher than the female death rate, with the rate ratio being larger in the 65-74 years age group.

Year to date, January to July 2023

  • For males and females in January to July 2023, the overall crude death rate and the age-specific rate for those aged 85 and over were higher than the baseline average but lower than the rate for the same period in 2022. This was also true for females aged 65-74 years. All other age groups had a lower death rate in 2023 than the baseline average or in 2022.
Age specific rates, 2023, 2022, Baseline
 JulyJanuary - July
 20232022baseline average20232022baseline average
Persons      
0-444.1024.6354.42628.44530.75730.052
45-6428.90332.55430.025196.813211.525199.366
65-74101.075111.309105.206660.245705.587664.589
75-84296.123334.993320.4861950.8182093.9011980.088
85 and over1198.5401438.5221274.5317716.7788453.5377522.794
All ages60.90970.01860.659398.693430.160373.485
       
Males      
0-445.0046.0405.76235.73539.52038.759
45-6435.15341.06938.239247.936263.907250.206
65-74126.465139.137131.743821.774888.672829.733
75-84344.298407.564382.4172317.8202530.5052363.639
85 and over1296.2161556.1941380.5818292.2209118.5178123.768
All ages63.38073.96563.399419.675455.056390.935
       
Females      
0-443.1753.1933.06920.94921.76121.159
45-6422.87624.32822.116147.503160.910150.366
65-7477.68785.51480.013511.325535.575508.080
75-84253.034270.009265.7611622.5241702.9631642.686
85 and over1133.5221361.0021208.6257335.3798017.8137152.021
All ages58.47366.12857.966378.014405.628356.284

a. Data is by occurrence.
b. Data is provisional and subject to change.
c. Doctor certified and coroner referred deaths are included.
d. The baseline includes deaths from 2017-19 and 2021.
e. Age-specific death rates reflect deaths per 100,000 of the estimated resident population (ERP).

Mortality by selected causes of death

Cause-specific mortality

The following analysis is based only on doctor certified deaths (i.e. coroner referred deaths are not included). Any changes in patterns of coroner referral could affect counts of doctor certified deaths. Some conditions have higher coroner referral rates (ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases and to a lesser extent, respiratory diseases and diabetes) so counts for those conditions would be more likely to be affected by such changes.

COVID-19

  • In July 2023 there were 309 deaths due to COVID-19 that were certified by a doctor. This is 76.9% lower than the 1,336 deaths in July 2022.
  • There have been 3,054 deaths due to COVID-19 certified by a doctor between January and July 2023. This is 54.6% lower than the 6,726 deaths recorded in the same period in 2022.
  • As the pandemic has progressed the number of people dying 'with' COVID-19 has increased. In July 97 people died with COVID-19 as a contributing factor to their death (ie. COVID-19 was certified on the death certificate but it was not the underlying cause of death).

Other causes of death

  • Deaths due to ischaemic heart disease were 14.9% below the baseline average in July 2023 and 15.6% lower than July 2022. In January to July 2023 the number of ischaemic heart disease deaths was 7.6% below baseline and 10.9% lower than in the same period in 2022.
  • Deaths due to dementia including Alzheimer's disease were 7.1% above the baseline average in July 2023, but were 6.6% lower than in July 2022. Dementia deaths in 2023 in January to June were 14.3% above the baseline average but 4.5% below the same period in 2022.
  • The age-standardised death rate for deaths due to dementia was 4.1 per 100,000 people in July 2023. This compares to a baseline average rate of 4.3 and a rate of 4.5 in July 2022. 
  • Deaths due to respiratory diseases in July 2023 were 6.4% below baseline average and 8.7% lower than in 2022, largely due to Chronic lower respiratory diseases being 14.6% below baseline and 16.8% below 2022. There were 90 deaths due to influenza in July 2023, compared to 55 in 2022 and a baseline average of 66.
  • Deaths due to diabetes were 8.2% above the baseline average in July 2023, but were 14.8% lower than July 2022. Diabetes deaths in 2023 in January to July were 15.4% higher than baseline average but 5.2% below the same period in 2022.
  • The age-standardised death rate for deaths due to diabetes was 1.4 per 100,000 people in July 2023. This compares to a baseline average rate of 1.4 and a rate of 1.6 in July 2022.
  • Deaths due to cerebrovascular disease were 11.3% lower than the baseline average in July 2023 and 12.2% lower than July 2022.  Cerebrovascular disease deaths from January to July 2023 were 5.5% below baseline average and 5.1% below the same period in 2022.
Doctor certified deaths by cause, 2023, 2022, Baseline
   JulyYear to date - January - July
   20232022baseline average20232022baseline average
Cancer4,3314,3094,14329,64629,34327,667
Dementia1,5911,7041,48510,04210,5138,785
Respiratory diseases1,3701,5001,4647,9638,0837,770
 Chronic lower respiratory diseases6788157944,3164,4514,313
 Influenza and pneumonia3323053461,5191,5221,532
  Pneumonia2422502801,2801,2661,341
Ischaemic heart disease1,2191,4451,4327,7898,7438,433
Other cardiac conditions  9571,0158845,8005,8455,084
Cerebrovascular diseases7838928835,2145,4965,517
Diabetes4995864613,1283,2982,710
COVID-193091,336na3,0546,726na

a. Only doctor certified deaths are included.
b. Data is by date of occurrence.
c. The baseline includes deaths from 2017-19 and 2021

Timeliness and completeness of data

Each death registration in the national mortality dataset has 3 dates:

  • The date on which the death occurred.
  • The date on which the death was registered with the jurisdictional Registry of Births Deaths and Marriages (RBDM).
  • The date on which the death was lodged with the ABS.
     

When looking to measure change over time, the completeness of data for the most recent period is important. When data is received each month by the ABS, the lag between the date of death and the date of registration means that approximately 40-50% of reported registrations are of deaths that occurred in the month being reported. The remainder are deaths that occurred in earlier months.

For deaths which are doctor certified, approximately 95% of registrations are received after a second month of reporting, while for coroner certified deaths, the proportion of registrations reported after a second month is lower (approximately 78%). This is because it takes longer for coroners to certify deaths due to the complexity of investigations.

As coroner referred deaths make up a smaller proportion of all deaths (approximately 11-14%) their inclusion in all-cause data only reduces the overall completeness by around 2%. This should be considered when making comparisons with historical counts, noting also that the level of completeness will be higher for the start of any given month than the end of that month. 

This pattern of registration and reporting is highlighted in the table below, which also shows the slight variation in reporting timelines by cause of death. 

Estimated completeness of death registrations received by the ABS (a)(b)(c)
 Total proportion reported at the end of
Cause of death

the month the death occurred (%)

the month after the death occurred (%)

two months after the death occurred (%)

All cause - doctor and coroner certified43.192.797.1
All cause - doctor certified only44.593.997.9
All cause - coroner certified only24.677.588.1
Ischaemic heart disease (I20 – I25)45.294.998.4
Other cardiac conditions (I26 – I51)45.595.098.6
Cerebrovascular diseases (I60 – I69)45.195.298.6
Respiratory diseases (J00 – J99)45.695.398.7
Chronic lower respiratory diseases (J40 – J47)45.394.298.1
Influenza and pneumonia (J09 – J18)45.495.498.8
Cancer (C00 – C97, D45, D46, D47.1, D47.3 – D47.5)46.895.398.6
Diabetes (E10 – E14)43.892.897.1
Dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease (F01, F03, G30, G31.0, G31.8)46.395.498.7

a. Percentages are based on the date registrations were received by the ABS for deaths that occurred in 2017-2019 and 2021.
b. Only doctor certified deaths are included for cause-specific data.
c. Data is provisional and subject to change.
 

The graphs below show how numbers of deaths for each period have increased over time as additional registrations that occurred in previous months are reported to the ABS. Due to these increases, data for the most recently reported periods should be treated with caution.

Data downloads

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Provisional Mortality Statistics, Jan - July 2023

Data files

Previous catalogue number

This release previously used catalogue number 3303.0.55.004

Methodology

Provisional Mortality Statistics methodology, Jan - Jul 2023

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