International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia

The ABS is enhancing the quarterly international trade in services statistics. Further information on the enhancements and publication changes can be found in the attached article.

A summary of the implications to the current publication are:

• International trade in services estimates in the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia publication will not equal the sum of the three months that have been published in the International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia publication. 
• From the June 2022 reference month, tables 11a and 11b will no longer be published in the International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia publication.  The full suite of quarterly international trade in services data will be available from the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia publication for the current reference quarter.

The trend series attempts to measure underlying behaviour in international trade activity. In the short term, this measurement will be significantly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent changes to regular patterns in international trade resulting from it. If the trend estimates in this publication were to be calculated without fully accounting for this unusual event they would provide a misleading view of underlying international trade activity.

It may be some time before the underlying trend in international trade activity can be accurately estimated. The trend series has therefore been suspended from March 2019 and will be reinstated when more certainty emerges.

International Accounts uses the concurrent seasonal adjustment method, meaning that seasonal factors are re-estimated each time new data becomes available. If not appropriately accounted for, unusual events such as COVID-19 can distort estimates calculated using this method. From March 2020, seasonal factors for series that have been notably impacted by COVID-19 will be calculated using data up to and including February 2020, then projected from March 2020 onwards. This approach, known as the forward factor method, ensures that seasonal factors are not distorted by COVID-19 impacts.

The ABS has advised users that it moved to using forward factors for seasonal analysis of a number of series, including Travel Services. Current ABS (and international) practice requires at least three years of data to assess whether a change in seasonal pattern has occurred. Should COVID-19 result in a long-term change to the seasonal pattern then revisions to these series may occur in the future. The ABS will consult with users on any future methods changes to seasonal adjustment and potential revisions. The Feature Article International travel services time series outlines the matter in greater detail.

Monthly International Trade in Services statistics (ITS) are compiled using multiple data sources. These data, compared with the publication reference period, are lagged. The lag in data results in most ITS estimates being nowcast when initially published. In recent times, these estimates have been more volatile, due in part to COVID-19 but also due to services data availability. While the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) make every effort to ensure estimates of monthly ITS are reflective and robust, in the current environment, the ABS recommends monthly services estimates be interpreted and used with caution. The International Trade in Services; Concepts, Source and Methods outlines this in further detail.

The March 2022 reference month (released 28th April 2022) was the final issue of the International Merchandise Trade: Confidential Commodities List publication. The International merchandise trade: Confidential Commodities List (Previously Tables 1-4) datacube is now available as an additional download in this publication.

The Confidential Commodities List (CCL) is needed to interpret the impact of confidentiality on merchandise trade statistics in International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia and other international trade in good statistics. This change improves interpretability of the monthly data at the time it is released.

Rural goods rose $193m (3.6%), driven by Other rural, up $159m (6.7%). 

Non-rural goods rose $3,687m (9.0%), driven by Coal, coke and briquettes, up $2,482m (20.4%). 

Consumption goods rose $567m (5.4%), driven by Non-industrial transport equipment, up $390m (18.5%).

Capital goods rose $243m (3.2%), driven by Machinery and industrial equipment, up $174m (6.5%), partially offset by ADP equipment, down $162m (12.7%).

Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $1,373m (9.0%), driven by Fuels and lubricants, up $1,152m (22.9%). 

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between April 2022 and May 2022 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

On a merchandise trade basis, adjustments have been applied to iron ore lump and iron ore fines. When actual final transaction prices become available estimates are replaced with these data. For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

Coal (in original terms)

On a balance of payments basis, adjustments have been applied to the coal, coke and briquettes component in May (+$3,300m), April (+35m), and March (-$30m).  This adjustment takes into account additional information on the unit value of hard coking, semi-soft and thermal coal exports. All previous adjustments have been removed. 

In the international merchandise trade series, the unit value of coal, coke and briquettes rose 16.0% between March 2022 and April 2022 and fell 18.5% between April 2022 and May 2022. 

In the balance of payments series, the unit value of coal, coke and briquettes rose 16.7% between between March 2022 and April 2022 and rose 5.5% between April 2022 and May 2022. 

Revisions have been made to incorporate the latest data relating to International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia since the last issue of this publication.

On an international merchandise trade basis, exports and imports of goods have been revised back to November 2021.

On a balance of payments basis, revisions have been applied to:

• Goods exports, back to October 2021 
• Goods imports, back to October 2021
• Services exports, back to July 2021
• Services imports, back to July 2021. 

Table 17 summarises revisions to goods and services on a balance of payments basis since the last issue of this publication. In original, current price terms, the revisions have:

• increased the surplus on goods and services for 2021-2022 by $2,468m. 

International trade in goods statistics are subject to confidentiality. Where necessary, a restriction is placed, at the commodity level, to restrict the level of detail available. Depending on the nature of restriction, this may be all detail relating to the product (no commodity details), or a restriction of only some variables (e.g. selected country details). Users of this publication and other international trade statistics should use the Confidential Commodities List (CCL) in Table 92 to determine whether a particular statistic has been subject to confidentiality restrictions, and therefore may not represent the true aggregate value.

The CCL Data Cube registers all import and export commodities subject to a confidentiality restriction and presents information under the following headings:

• changes and new restrictions to import items in the current month
• changes and new restrictions to export items in the current month
• all import restrictions from January 1988 to the current month
• all export restrictions from January 1988 to the current month.

There are additional confidentiality applications that impact ABS international trade in goods statistics that are not reflected in this data cube. These are presented in the International Merchandise Trade, Australia: Concepts, Sources and Methods which also provides more detailed information on international merchandise trade confidentiality. 

For further information, including how to interpret the Confidential Commodities List, please see the Explanatory Notes section in Table 92.