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Special Article - Young People and Migration in New South Wales


YOUNG PEOPLE AND MIGRATION IN NEW SOUTH WALES

This article provides an overview of the population change, migration and mobility of young people in New South Wales (NSW) over the 10 years to 30 June 2003. The population of young people in NSW was declining from 1994 to 1998. However, population growth of young people has occurred since 2000. This growth cannot be solely explained by 'natural increase', so migration must be considered a key factor. In this article, 'young people' refers to persons aged 15-24 years.

GEOGRAPHY

The data presented is for a number of geographic levels from the Australian Standard Geographic Classification. Information is presented at the state and regional level as well as for selected Statistical Local Areas (SLAs). For the regional analysis, NSW SLAs were grouped into six broad categories as described in Table 1.

1. NSW REGIONAL CLASSIFICATION
Regional category	Statistical Local Areas included within the regional category
Sydney	All SLAs in the Sydney Statistical Division
Newcastle	All SLAs in the Newcastle Statistical Subdivision
Wollongong	All SLAs in the Wollongong Statistical Subdivision
Coastal	Ballina (A), Bega Valley (A), Bellingen (A), Byron (A), Coffs Harbour (C) - Pt A, Coffs Harbour (C) - Pt B, Eurobodalla (A), Grafton (C), Greater Taree (C), Great Lakes (A), Hastings (A) - Pt A, Hastings (A) - Pt B, Kempsey (A), Lismore (C) - Pt A, Lismore (C) - Pt B, Maclean (A), Nambucca (A), Pristine Waters (A) - Ulmarra, Richmond Valley (A) - Casino, Richmond Valley (A) Bal, Shoalhaven (C) - Pt A, Shoalhaven (C) - Pt B, Tweed (A) - Pt A, Tweed (A) - Pt B.
Regional Cities	Albury (C), Armidale Dumeresq (A) - City, Bathurst (C), Broken Hill (C), Dubbo (C) - Pt A, Goulburn (C), Greater Lithgow (C), Griffith (C), Orange (C), Queanbeyan (C), Tamworth (C), Wagga Wagga (C) - Pt A.
Non-Urban Remainder	All remaining NSW SLAs

During the 10 years to 30 June 2003, the annual population growth rates for young people in NSW have reversed. For the period 1994-1999 the growth rates for young people were negative while positive growth rates have occurred since 2000. During the same period, NSW experienced relatively constant growth in its total population.

2. ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, NSW - Year ended 30 June

3a. ANNUAL GROWTH RATES, COASTAL REGION - Year ended 30 June

3b. ANNUAL GROWTH RATES, NON-URBAN REMAINDER - Year ended 30 June

Based on ten year average annual growth rates for 1994-2003, the Coastal region experienced population growth for young people (1.2%). All other regions experienced negative growth rates with the Non-Urban Remainder recording the largest decline at 1.1%.

4. ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION, Persons aged 15-24 years, by NSW regional classification
	ERP, at June 30			Change 1993 - 1998(a)		Change 1998 - 2003(a)		Change 1993 - 2003(a)
Regional category	1993	1998	2003	no.	%	no.	%	no.	%
Sydney	589,857	567,651	587,434	-22,206	-0.8	19,783	0.7	-2,423	0.0
Newcastle	67,974	63,995	67,499	-3,979	-1.2	3,504	1.1	-475	-0.1
Wollongong	38,619	35,980	37,774	-2,639	-1.4	1,794	1.0	-845	-0.2
Coastal	65,889	67,665	74,506	1,776	0.5	6,841	1.9	8,617	1.2
Regional Cities	60,741	55,648	57,908	-5,093	-1.7	2,260	0.8	-2,833	-0.5
Non-Urban Remainder	81,028	73,186	72,690	-7,842	-2.0	-496	-0.1	-8,338	-1.1
NSW	904,108	864,125	897,811	-39,983	-0.9	33,686	0.8	-6,297	-0.1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Average annual growth rate.
Source: Regional Population Growth, Australia (cat. no.3218.0).

Population change at the SLA level - 2002-03

Sydney

In the Sydney region, the largest annual growth rates of young people for 2002-03 occurred in Sydney (C) - Remainder (8.9%), South Sydney (C) (6.7%), Strathfield (A) (4.7%) and Blacktown (C) - North (4.0%). During 2002-03, seven SLAs had a decline of young people. Waverley (A) declined by 1.8%, Marrickville (A) by 1.4% and Canterbury (C) by 1.0%, while the remainder declined by less than 0.5%.

Newcastle and Wollongong

Of the six SLAs in the Newcastle region, Newcastle (C) - Inner had the largest 2002-03 annual growth rate for young people (17.9%), followed by Port Stephens (A) at 2.9%. Lake Macquarie (C) was the only SLA in this region to experience population decline (0.3%). Of the three SLAs in the Wollongong region, two had growth in their population of young people for 2002-03. The largest increase occurred in Kiama (A) (2.2%) while Shellharbour (C) declined by 0.3%.

Coastal region

Of the 24 coastal SLAs in NSW outside the Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong regions, 17 experienced growth in their populations of young people during 2002-03. The SLA of Tweed (A) - Pt A recorded the largest growth rate at 6.0%, followed by Pristine Waters (A) - Ulmarra (4.5%) and Tweed (A) - Pt B (3.7%). Of the coastal SLAs that experienced a decrease in the number of young people, Ballina (A) experienced the largest decline at 2.7%, followed by Coffs Harbour (C) - Pt B (2.4%) and Lismore (A) - Pt B (1.7%).

Regional Cities

Of the Regional City SLAs, the largest growth rates for young people for 2002-03 were in Queanbeyan (C) (4.5%), Bathurst (C) (3.3%) and Albury (C) (2.4%). Conversely, negative growth rates were recorded in Broken Hill (C) (3.0%), Griffith (C) (1.1%), Orange (C) (0.3%) and Goulburn (C) (0.1%).

Non-Urban Remainder

Of the 104 SLAs in the Non-Urban Remainder, 25 experienced positive growth rates greater than 1% for 2002-03. The two SLAs with the highest growth rates were Merriwa (A) (9.9%) and Gunning (A) (8.3%). A further 56 SLAs experienced negative growth rates greater than 1% for 2002-03. The largest declines among non-urban inland SLAs occurred in Murrurundi (A) (12.8%) and Wagga Wagga (C) - Pt B (11.1%).

MIGRATION AND YOUNG PEOPLE IN NSW

Since 2000, ERP data indicates that NSW experienced growth in its young population after a period of decline. One possible explanation for this growth could be if the single year age cohort entering the 15-24 year old age group in a specific year (those aged 15 years) was significantly larger than the cohort leaving the age group (those aged 25 years). Between 1994 and 2000, the net difference between these two age cohorts was negative, with the size of the 25 year old age cohort declining since 1996. This produced a net loss of young people consistent with the population decline at that time. Since 2000, there has been a net gain of less than 1,000 persons, which was not sufficient to account for the total growth experienced. Additionally, as the NSW total fertility rate declined from 2.3 births per woman in 1974, before stabilising around 1.9 after 1983, significant and continued growth from an Australian born age cohort is not anticipated. Thus, the source of this growth is likely to be through interstate migration or overseas arrivals. To investigate this, migration patterns were calculated using the 2001 Census of Population and Housing data item relating to a person's SLA of usual residence one year prior to the census.

There are limitations in using census data to analyse migration patterns. Movement is measured at a point in time and does not indicate multiple moves occurring between the periods. Census data also do not measure overseas out-migration of emigrants and long-term departures of Australian residents. Therefore, the in-, out- and net migration data presented here, relates to mobility within Australia only. Those who were overseas in 2000 (immigrants, long-term visitors and returning residents) are reported under a separate category.

Mobility in NSW
Australians are a very mobile population, particularly young people. Australians move on average about 11 times during their lives (footnote 1). Around one in six persons (17%) in NSW reported changing their usual residence in the 12 months prior to the 2001 census. Around one in four of NSW's young people (26%) moved during the same period.

5. MOBILITY IN NSW, by age - 2000-01
	Residence in 2000
	Same as in 2001	Elsewhere in Australia	Overseas	Not stated	Total mobility rate(a)	Total persons(b)
Age group	%	%	%	%	%	no.
1-14 years	78.6	16.4	1.1	4.0	17.5	1,226,426
15-24 years	69.3	23.7	2.1	4.8	25.8	816,865
25 years and over	80.3	14.0	1.2	4.5	15.2	4,031,086
Total persons(b)	78.5	15.8	1.3	4.4	17.1	6,074,377
(a) Mobility rate (see glossary).
(b) Excluding persons aged 0 in 2001.
Source: ABS data available on request, 2001 Census of Population and Housing.

6. ONE YEAR MOBILITY RATE, NSW - by age and sex - 2001

7. INTERSTATE AND OVERSEAS MIGRATION, Persons aged 15-24 years - 2000-2001
	NSW	Victoria	Queensland	South Australia	Australian Capital Territory	Other State/ Territory(a)
	no.	no.	no.	no.	no.	no.
Interstate in-migration	14,310	11,068	14,160	3,744	3,484	6,696
Interstate out-migration	16,513	9,170	11,794	4,376	3,262	8,347
Interstate net migration	-2,203	1,898	2,366	-632	222	-1,651
Overseas 2000	17,520	12,801	8,988	2,199	872	5,932
(a) Aggregate of movement to/from Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory.
Source: ABS data available on request, 2001 Census of Population and Housing.

Inter-regional mobility and migration in NSW-2001

Regional mobility

Within the Sydney region, 9% of young people reported moving locally (within an SLA) in the 12 months prior to the 2001 census. The levels for local moves were higher in all other regions with 21% of young people in Regional Cities, 19% in the Coastal region, 17% in Newcastle, 15% in Wollongong and 15% in the Non-Urban Remainder undertaking local moves.

Movement over longer distances is indicated by moves between SLAs or from overseas. Between 2000 and 2001, 14% of young people within Regional Cities changed residential SLAs. Comparative levels of movement in other regions ranged from 13% within the Non-Urban Remainder to 7% in the Wollongong region. Additionally, 3% of Sydney's young people and 1% of Wollongong's young people were resident overseas in 2000.

8. MOBILITY RATES, Persons aged 15-24 years, NSW by Regional Classification - 2000-2001
	Residence in 2000
	Same as in 2001	Elsewhere within same SLA	Other SLA within Australia	Overseas	Not Stated	Total persons(a)
Regional category	%	%	%	%	%	no.
Sydney	71.1	9.2	11.3	2.9	5.6	537,545
Newcastle	68.1	16.5	11.1	0.8	3.4	61,318
Wollongong	72.1	15.2	7.5	1.4	3.9	34,629
Coastal	65.1	19.1	11.0	0.6	4.2	66,097
Regional Cities	60.5	21.3	13.8	0.7	3.7	49,243
Non-Urban Remainder	67.2	14.9	12.5	0.4	5.0	66,382
(a) Excluding persons in Offshore Areas and Migratory, Undefined Sydney, Undefined NSW and No Usual Address.
Source: ABS data available on request, 2001 Census of Population and Housing.

The Sydney region was the only area in NSW to have a total net migration gain from within Australia in the 12 months prior to the 2001 census (a gain of 3,800 young people). This comprised a net migration gain of 2,900 persons from SLAs within other regions in NSW (intrastate migration) and a net migration gain of 910 persons from other states and territories in Australia (interstate migration). The Sydney region also gained 15,400 young people who were resident overseas in 2000. The Newcastle and Wollongong regions each gained around 500 young people who were resident overseas in 2000.

The Coastal region had a total net migration loss of 2,300 young people. This comprised net losses at both the intrastate (760 persons) and interstate (1,500 persons) levels. The net interstate loss was the product of an interstate in-migration of 2,000 persons and the largest interstate out-migration (outside of the Sydney region) of 3,500 persons.

Regional Cities recorded a total net migration loss of 370 young people. The intrastate net gain of 170 young people was the product of in-/out-migration flows of around 4,000 persons. The interstate loss of 540 young people comprised an in-migration of 2,000 persons from other states and territories and an out-migration of 2,500 persons to other states and territories.

The largest total net migration loss of young people was in the Non-Urban Remainder (3,200 persons). The Non-Urban Remainder had a net intrastate loss of 2,300 young people. This comprised an in-migration of 4,000 persons and the largest out-migration of all regions in the state at 6,300 persons. The region also had a net interstate loss of 880 young people.

9. MIGRATION, Persons aged 15-24 years(a), NSW by Regional Classification - 2000-2001
	From within NSW (intrastate)			From other states or territories (intrastate)
	In-migration	Out-migration	Net migration	In-migration	Out-migration	Net migration	Total net migration	Overseas 2000
Sydney	8,511	5,623	2,888	7,048	6,139	909	3,797	15,398
Newcastle	2,820	2,736	84	691	922	-231	-147	494
Wollongong	1,448	1,490	-42	352	400	-48	-90	492
Coastal	3,294	4,057	-763	1,954	3,481	-1,527	-2,290	391
Regional Cities	4,081	3,911	170	1,955	2,492	-537	-367	323
Non-Urban Remainder	3,979	6,316	-2,337	2,095	2,972	-877	-3,214	277
(a) Excluding persons in Offshore Areas and Migratory, Undefined NSW and No Usual Address.
Source: ABS data available on request, 2001 Census of Population and Housing.

Migration at the SLA level-2001

Sydney

In the 12 months to the 2001 census, the SLAs of South Sydney (C) and North Sydney (A) had the largest net migration gains of young people (1,000 and 870 persons respectively) from all other SLAs in Australia. The largest net migration losses were in Fairfield (C) (690 persons) and Kur-ring-gai (A) (520 persons). Randwick (C) (1,400 persons) had the largest number of young people who were resident overseas in 2000, followed by South Sydney (C) (950 persons) and Sydney (C) - Remainder (790 persons).

Newcastle and Wollongong

Newcastle (C) - Remainder had a net migration gain of 590 young people with a further 270 young people resident overseas in 2000. Similarly, Wollongong (C) had a net migration gain of 50 young people and 470 young people resident overseas in 2000. Some SLAs recorded a net migration loss for this period. The largest net loss was in Cessnock (C) (200 persons) which also only had 20 young people resident overseas in 2000.

Coastal region

Only one coastal SLA, Tweed (A) - Pt A, had a net migration gain of young people (60 persons) from other SLAs in Australia. Another 40 young people were resident overseas in 2000. Only two SLAs, Ballina (A) and Greater Taree (C), had net migration losses of greater than 200 young people, while two further SLAs, Lismore (C) - Pt A and Coffs Harbour (C) - Pt A, had net migration losses of less than 40 persons, a result of in- and out-migration of around 800 young people.

Regional Cities

Within Regional Cities, Albury (C) and Queanbeyan (C) both had net migration gains of over 200 young people while Armidale Dumaresq (A) - City and Tamworth (C) both had net migration losses of over 200 young people. Small net migration losses masked high levels of mobility in Wagga Wagga (C) - Pt A where a net migration loss of 90 young people was based on an in and out-migration of over 1,000 young people.

Non-Urban Remainder

Of the 103 inland non-urban SLAs, 14 recorded net migration gains with the highest occurring in Dubbo (C) - Pt B with 40 young people. The five SLAs of Wingecarribee (A), Snowy River (A), Cowra (A), Kyogle (A) and Dungog (A), recorded net migration losses of greater than 100 young people.

OVERSEAS ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES OF YOUNG PEOPLE

Overseas Arrivals and Departures Collection data are available by age, type of arrival/departure (i.e. permanent or long-term), reason for visit/departure and state of residence. However, this type of data are subject to a number of migration adjustments. These are designed to reflect differences between stated travel intentions and actual travel behaviour, such as when a person is categorised as a long-term visitor but leaves before the 12 months to which this category relates.

Overseas arrivals

For the period 1993 to 2003, the number of permanent arrivals aged 15-24 years who expected to reside in NSW remained relatively constant at between 5,000 and 7,500 persons annually. During the same period, the number of long-term arrivals (intending to stay for 12 months or more) to NSW more than doubled to around 36,000 young people by 2003.

One major component of this long-term movement has been involvement in education. Australia has received a large influx of international students due to the globalisation of international education (footnote 7). In 1993, just under half of the long-term arrivals indicated their reason for staying in NSW was education. This proportion has risen every year to 2003 when they represented over two thirds of long-term arrivals.

10. PERMANENT ARRIVALS AND LONG-TERM VISTORS, Aged 15-24 years - NSW - 1993-2003

Long-term departures include Australian residents who intended to remain abroad for 12 months or more (but not permanently) and departing overseas visitors who have stayed for 12 months or more in Australia. There were around 10,000 long-term departures of young people in 1993. This had increased to around 16,000 young people by 2003. This represented around three long-term departures for every four long-term arrivals in 1993. By 2003, this ratio had reduced to around two departures for every five arrivals.

11. PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM DEPARTURES, Aged 15-24 years - NSW - 1993-2003

When looking at the mobility of young people, those not living with their parents were more likely to have moved in the past year than those living with their parents. Young people living in group households or as partners in a couple in 2001 had one year mobility rates of 63% and 51% respectively. Almost half of both lone persons or lone parents in this age bracket also moved. By comparison, non-dependent children and dependent students had lower mobility rates of 11% and 9% respectively.

Young people who were employed (27%) or unemployed (33%) in 2001 were more likely to have moved in the 12 months prior to the 2001 census than those who were not in the labour force (19%). Of those young people attending an educational institution, mobility rates of around 25% were recorded for those attending university or other tertiary institutions or those attending technical or further educational institutions. Overall, mobility was highest for those not attending an educational institution (33%).

12. MOBILITY RATES(a), Persons aged 15-24 years, NSW by selected characteristics - 2001
		Persons who moved aged 15-24		All persons aged 15-24
		no.	%	no.
Selected living arrangements
	Partner in a couple	42,249	51.2	82,461
	Lone parent	6,229	48.1	12,952
	Group household member	37,621	63.1	59,652
	Lone person	12,184	48.9	24,941
	Dependent students	26,138	8.9	293,911
	Non-dependent child	24,411	10.7	228,263
Labour force status
	Employed	117,026	26.5	440,926
	Unemployed	22,233	33.1	67,143
	Not in the Labour Force	52,779	19.0	277,284
Type of educational institution attending
	Secondary	22,901	10.8	213,031
	Technical or further educational institutions	20,750	24.5	84,773
	University or other Tertiary institutions	30,046	25.5	117,873
	Not attending an educational institution	112,630	32.8	343,769
All young people(b)		193,629	23.7	816,865
(a) Proportion of group whose usual residence on census night was different to that one year prior. Excludes overseas migration.
(b) Figures for sub-categories do not sum to the total for all young people as not all sub-categories are reported in this table.
Source: ABS data available on request, 2001 Census of Population and Housing.

CONCLUSION

NSW experienced overall growth in its total population for the period 1994 to 2003. However, before 2000, the population of young people was in decline. After this period, the annual growth rates for young people increased to rates above that of NSW as a whole. Based on ten year average annual growth rates, the Coastal region was the only area in NSW to experience growth in the population of young people. All other regions declined or had no change in the population of young people with the largest decline occurring in the Non-Urban Remainder.

As there was no large difference between the age cohorts entering and leaving the 15-24 year age group, growth in the resident population since 2000 is likely to be through interstate migration and/or overseas arrivals. The 2001 census indicated that NSW had a net interstate migration loss of young people, but also gained over 17,000 young people who were resident overseas in 2000. Regionally, Sydney had a net migration gain of young people from elsewhere in Australia, while all other regions in NSW had a net migration loss. Sydney also gained the majority of young people from overseas who intended residing in NSW.

During the period 1993 to 2003, there was a high level of long-term overseas arrivals aged 15-24 years who intended to reside in NSW for education purposes. During the same period, the difference between long-term arrivals and long-term departures had been increasing, resulting in a net gain of residents in NSW within this age group. This suggests that long-term arrivals are an important component in respect to the recent growth in NSW's young population.

For young people in NSW who moved from another SLA within Australia in the 12 months prior to the 2001 census, mobility is linked to transitional changes. High mobility rates are indicated for those in independent household types. Moderate mobility rates are also apparent among those in the labour force or those attending post secondary education facilities.

Footnotes

• 1. Bell M & Cooper J, 1992, How far and how often do Australians move, APA sixth national conference, Sydney. (back)
• 2. Rowland D, Internal Migration in Australia, (ABS cat. no. 3409.0). (back)
• 3. Bell M & Hugo G, Internal Migration in Australia 1991-1996, Joint Commonwealth, State, Territory Population, Migration and Multicultural Research Program, 2000. (back)
• 4. Hamilton N & Cocks D, 1996, Coastal growth and the environment, in Newton P & Bell M eds, Population Shift, AGPS, Canberra (back)
• 5. Hugo G, Australia's changing non-metropolitan population, in Gillespie G (ed), The New Rural Health, Oxford University Press, Melbourne. (back)
• 6. Youth migration within Australia, in Australian Social Trends, 2003, (ABS cat. no. 4102.0) (back)
• 7. Tremblay K. 2002, Student mobility between and towards OECD countries: a comparative analysis, in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD, International Mobility of the Highly Skilled, OECD, Paris.(back)