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FEATURE ARTICLE: FERTILITY IN NEW SOUTH WALES – 2004


INTRODUCTION

In 2004, the NSW total fertility rate (TFR) was 1.79 births per woman. Fertility in NSW has been below replacement fertility (2.1 live births per woman) since 1976 and has been slowly declining since 1992. However, there have been some indications that the decline appears to have halted, with the preliminary 2004-05 TFR for NSW of 1.84 being the highest since 1995 (footnote 1). This article looks at trends in NSW fertility and the 2004 status of key fertility indicators.

The TFR is a total population measure of fertility which represents the average number of babies that a women could expect to bear during her reproductive lifetime, if she experienced the current age-specific fertility. Age-specific fertility is based on the number of live births per woman in a calendar year and the 30 June female estimated resident population of the same age as the mother.

The five year age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) reported in this article represent the number of live births per 1,000 women within that age group. They indicate the age group in which the highest and lowest age-specific fertility occurs.

Births and fertility indicators are an essential component of population estimates and projections. Births data are used in cohort component methods for creating population estimates. Assumed fertility rates, based on current trends, are used in modelling population projections. Reliable and accurate fertility data are therefore essential to research and infrastructure planning.

GEOGRAPHY

Data are presented for a number of geographic levels from the 2004 Australian Standard Geographic Classification (cat. no. 1216.0). Information is presented for NSW, the Sydney Statistical Division (SD) and the Balance of NSW and for selected Statistical Local Areas (SLAs). NSW SLAs are also grouped into six broad categories for the regional analysis (see Table 1).

1. NSW REGIONAL CLASSIFICATION(a) - 2004
Regional category
Sydney
	All SLAs in the Sydney Statistical Division(b)
Newcastle
	All SLAs in the Newcastle Statistical Subdivision(b)
Wollongong
	All SLAs in the Wollongong Statistical Subdivision(b)
Coastal
	Ballina (A), Bega Valley (A), Bellingen (A), Byron (A), Coffs Harbour (C) - Pt A, Coffs Harbour (C) - Pt B, Eurobodalla (A), Clarence Valley (A) - Grafton, Clarence Valley (A) - Maclean, Clarence Valley (A) - Ulmarra, Greater Taree (C), Great Lakes (A), Hastings (A) - Pt A, Hastings (A) - Pt B, Kempsey (A), Lismore (C) - Pt A, Lismore (C) - Pt B, Nambucca (A), Richmond Valley (A) - Casino, Richmond Valley (A) Bal, Shoalhaven (C) - Pt A, Shoalhaven (C) - Pt B, Tweed (A) - Pt A, Tweed (A) - Pt B.
Reginal cities
	Albury (C), Armidale Dumaresq (A) - City, Bathurst (C), Broken Hill (C), Dubbo (C) - Pt A, Greater Argyle (A) - Goulburn, Greater Queanbeyan (C), Griffith (C), Lithgow (C), Orange (C), Tamworth (C), Wagga Wagga (C) - Pt A.
Non-urban remainder
	All remaining NSW SLAs
(a) Statistical Local Areas (SLA) included within the regional category. The SLA is a general purpose spatial unit which, in NSW, aggregate directly to Local Government Areas (LGAs). A suffix indicates whether the associated LGA is a city (C) or area (A). Where more than one SLA exists in a LGA, the urban part of the area contains a further suffix indicating either Pt A or the name of the urban area (e.g. Grafton).
(b) Some SLAs were grouped using NSW Statistical Divisions and Statistical Subdivisions. For further details see the 2004 Australian Standard Geographic Classification (cat. no. 1216.0)

TRENDS IN NEW SOUTH WALES FERTILITY

The baby boom (1946-1965) was a period characterised by high fertility. In 1947, the NSW TFR was 2.94 births per woman with the highest ASFR in the 25-29 age group (177.6 births per 1,000 women). In 1954, the TFR was 2.98, and the 20-24 age group had the highest ASFR (186.5). The highest recorded TFR during this period was 3.37 in 1961 with the highest ASFR in the 20-24 age group (215.7). Since then, fertility in NSW has declined.

In 1971, the NSW TFR was 2.81, declining sharply to 1.91 in 1979. Between 1980 and 1992, the TFR fluctuated around 1.9 before slowly declining to the current level of around 1.8. The NSW TFR has remained below the replacement fertility level of 2.1 births per woman since 1976.

2. TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR), New South Wales - 1971-2004

3. AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE (ASFR), New South Wales - 1974, 1984, 1994 and 2004

The trend towards postponement of births is reflected in an increasing median age of mother at confinement. In NSW, the median age of mother in 2004 was 30.6 years, an increase of 4.6 years from the median age in 1975, and similar to the pattern for median age of mother for Australia.

FERTILITY IN NEW SOUTH WALES, 2004

In 2004, 85,900 births were registered to women usually resident in NSW, approximately one-third of births registered in Australia. Over one-third (29,400) of these NSW births were to women aged 30-34 years with a further 23,700 births to women aged 25-29 years. The 2004 NSW TFR was 1.79 births per woman, slightly higher than the Australian rate (1.77).

In 2004, the highest age-specific fertility for both NSW and Australia were for women aged 30-34 years with the NSW rate of 114.1 births per 1,000 women just below the Australian rate of 114.4. The second highest rates were in the 25-29 year age group with the NSW rate of 104.3 above the Australian rate of 102.5.

4. BIRTHS, AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE (ASFR) and TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR), New South Wales(a) - and Australia - 2004
	New South Wales		Australia
	Births	ASFR(b)	Births	ASFR(b)
Age group (years)	no.	rate	no.	rate
15-19(c)	3 310	15.1	10 857	16.3
20-24	12 133	54.8	36 146	53.4
25-29	23 709	104.3	68 846	102.5
30-34	29 423	114.1	87 395	114.4
35-39	14 273	59.0	42 139	57.4
40-44	2 886	11.2	8 183	10.6
45-49(d)	143	0.6	379	0.5
Total births(e)(f)	85 894		254 246
Total fertility rate(g)		1.79		1.77
(a) Based on usual residence.
(b) Births per 1,000 women.
(c) Includes births to mothers aged less than 15 years.
(d) Includes births to mothers aged 50 years and over.
(e) Including age of mother not stated.
(f) Includes registered births where the mother is usually resident overseas.
(g) Births per woman.
Source: Births, Australia (cat. no. 3301.0).

REGIONS AND STATISTICAL LOCAL AREAS

Fertility is not consistent across all parts of NSW. TFRs and ASFRs vary considerably, particularly between the low fertility Sydney region and the higher fertility Non-Urban Remainder.

Different fertility patterns in regions and Statistical Local Areas (SLAs) are important to policy makers. The number of confinements can indicate the demand for paediatric services and women's health and maternity services in a region. As births are a component of population growth or decline for children in a region, trends in current fertility rates can also be used to assess the future demands for child care and education services.

To reduce the impact of single year fluctuations in births data, the regional and SLA data presented here are based on three year aggregates and averages (2002-04). Only SLAs with resident populations greater than 4,000 people in 2004 are included in this analysis.

Regional fertility patterns in NSW

Sydney is characterised by low overall fertility, as measured by the TFR, and higher age-specific fertility for women aged 30 years and over, as measured by the median age of mother at confinement and ASFRs. The fertility patterns change for regions outside Sydney, particularly within the Non-Urban Remainder. The regions outside Sydney generally have higher overall fertility, lower median ages for mothers and higher age-specific fertility for women under 30 years of age.

In 2004, over three-quarters of all births in NSW (66,300 births) were to women usually resident in Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong. Of the remaining births, 7,600 were to women usually resident in the Non-Urban Remainder, 6,700 in the Coastal region and 4,900 in Regional Cities.

5. SELECTED FERTILITY INDICATORS, New South Wales regions(a) - 2002-04
			Sydney	Newcastle	Wollongong	Coastal	Regional Cities	Non-Urban Remainder	New South Wales(b)(c)
Births(b)		no.	57 185	5 659	3 408	6 684	4 942	7 581	85 894
Total fertility rate(d)		rate	1.74	1.76	1.84	1.95	1.92	2.16	1.79
Median age of mother(e)		years	31.0	30.4	29.0	29.4	29.0	29.2	30.6
Age-specific fertility rate(f)
	15-19(g)	rate	12.0	18.4	16.8	19.7	22.8	24.4	15.0
	20-24	rate	47.0	61.4	58.4	84.7	69.4	99.9	54.0
	25-29	rate	96.8	119.2	122.0	119.9	120.9	140.5	103.9
	30-34	rate	115.9	102.7	114.3	97.3	103.9	109.7	114.0
	35-39	rate	64.6	43.3	46.1	39.5	43.0	42.1	59.0
	40-44	rate	12.9	6.9	8.0	7.3	7.1	7.1	11.2
	45-49(h)	rate	0.6	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.6
(a) Based on usual residence.
(b) Based on 2004 data only.
(c) Includes births registered to persons usually resident overseas or at a location unable to be allocated to an SLA.
(d) Births per woman based on 2002-04 average number of births and the 2003 estimated resident population.
(e) Median age of mother at confinement based on 2002-04 aggregate births.
(f) Births per 1000 women based on 2002-04 average number of births and the 2003 estimated resident population.
(g) Includes births to mothers aged less than 15 years.
(h) Includes births to mothers aged 50 years and over.
Source: ABS data available on request, Births Collection and Estimated Resident Population.

The only region with a 2002-04 TFR above replacement fertility was the Non-Urban Remainder (2.16 births per woman). The second highest fertility was in the Coastal region (1.95). Sydney had the lowest fertility (1.74) followed by Newcastle (1.76). The 2002-04 median age of mother at confinement was highest in Sydney (31.0 years) and Newcastle (30.4) while Regional Cities and Wollongong both had the lowest median age (29.0).

The low fertility, high median age pattern for Sydney is characterised by high fertility for women aged over 30 years. In contrast, the higher fertility, lower median age pattern for the Non-Urban Remainder is characterised by higher fertility for women aged under 30 years. Age-specific fertility patterns for other NSW regions were generally similar to each other and higher than Sydney for women aged under 30 years

The 2002-04 ASFR for women aged 20-24 years in the Non-Urban Remainder (99.9 births per 1,000 women) was around twice that of the Sydney region (47.0) and, for women aged 25-29 years nearly 50% higher (140.5 and 96.8 respectively). ASFRs for women aged 30-34 years were similar across the regions with Sydney having the highest rate of 115.9 and the Coastal region having the lowest rate of 97.3.

However, for women aged 35-39 years, the ASFR in Sydney was considerably higher than for other regions. The ASFR for women aged 35-39 years was 64.6 compared to the next highest rate in the Wollongong region of 46.1. The lowest fertility for women aged 35-39 years was in the Coastal region (39.5).

6. AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES (ASFR), Sydney region and Non-Urban Remainder - 2002-04

7. AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES (ASFR), Other NSW regions - 2002-04

SLAs in the Sydney region

While fertility in Sydney is lower than in other regions, there is considerable variability when looking at the SLAs across the region. Inner city SLAs tend to have the lowest fertility while those with higher fertility are generally on the suburban fringe. Twenty-eight of the 49 SLAs in Sydney had 2002-04 TFRs lower than the NSW rate. The lowest TFRs were in Sydney (C) - Inner (0.87 births per woman), Sydney (C) - Remainder (0.93) and Sydney (C) - South (1.02). Five SLAs had TFRs above replacement fertility - Blacktown (C) - South West (2.38), Auburn (A) (2.18), Liverpool (C) (2.16), Bankstown (C) (2.15) and Camden (A) (2.13).

8. TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR), Statistical Local Areas(a) in Sydney - 2002-04

Around two-thirds of SLAs in Sydney had a median age of mother at confinement above the NSW median. The highest median ages were in Mosman (A) (34.3 years) and Ku-ring-gai (A) (34.1) while the lowest were in Blacktown (C) (27.8), Campbelltown (28.2) and Penrith (28.5).

For women aged 20-24 years, 2002-04 ASFRs were below the NSW rate in almost two-thirds of SLAs. For this age group, the lowest ASFRs were in Sydney (C) - Inner (4.5 births per 1,000 women) and Ku-ring-gai (A) (5.7), while the highest were in Blacktown (C) - South West (128.4) and Campbelltown (C) (94.2). For women aged 25-29 years, the lowest ASFRs were in Sydney (C) - Inner (15.1) and North Sydney (A) (27.2), while the highest were in Camden (A) (163.9) and Wollondilly (A) (154.1).

For women aged 30-34 years, the highest ASFRs in Sydney were in Pittwater (A) (158.3 births per 1,000 women) and Sutherland Shire (A) - West (155.4). For women aged 35-39 years, just under two-thirds of SLAs had ASFRs above the NSW rate with the highest rates in Waverley (A) (135.4) and Leichhardt (A) (113.7).

SLAs in the Newcastle and Wollongong regions

Seven of the nine SLAs in the Newcastle and Wollongong regions had TFRs above the NSW rate. The highest fertility was in Maitland (C) (1.99 births per woman). The highest median age of mother at confinement was in Kiama (A) (31.5 years) and the lowest was in Cessnock (C) (28.0).

For women aged 20-24 years, the highest fertility was in Cessnock (C) (95.8 births per 1,000 women) and, for women aged 25-29 years, the highest was in Maitland (C) (148.7). The only two SLAs above the NSW rate for women aged 30-34 years were Kiama (A) (130.3) and Wollongong (C) (117.3). For women aged 35-39 years, all SLAs had ASFRs below the NSW rate.

SLAs in other NSW regions

Outside Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong there were 97 SLAs with populations over 4,000 people. Reflecting the higher fertility in these SLAs, 89% had TFRs above the NSW rate and 49% were above replacement fertility. The highest TFR was in the Non-Urban Remainder SLA of Culcairn (A) (2.67 births per woman) while in the Coastal region and Regional Cities, the highest TFRs were in Kempsey (A) (2.23) and Griffith (C) (2.25).

9. TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR), Statistical Local Areas(a) in other NSW regions - 2002-04

The median age of mother at confinement was lower than the NSW median in 87% of these SLAs. The lowest median age was in the Coastal region SLA of Richmond Valley (A) - Casino (26.7 years) while in Regional Cities and the Non-Urban Remainder, the lowest median ages were in Broken Hill (C) (27.9) and Coolamon (A) (27.3).

The pattern of ASFRs in these regions demonstrates the tendency for women to have children at younger ages. The NSW ASFR for women aged 20-24 years was exceeded in 90% of SLAs, with the highest rate recorded in the Non-Urban Remainder SLA of Corowa (A) (145.1 births per 1,000 women). Similarly, for women aged 25-29 years, 88% of SLAs had fertility above the NSW rate with the highest rate in the Coastal region SLA of Clarence Valley (A) - Nymboida (200.0).

The age-specific fertility pattern in these regions reverses for women over 30 years of age. For women aged 30-34 years, over three-quarters of SLAs have ASFRs below the NSW rate while for women aged 35-39 years, all but four SLAs were below the NSW rate.

THE CHANGING SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT

Fertility patterns may reflect social, cultural and economic changes of a particular time and/or generation. A number of social factors are considered to be associated with changing fertility. These include: changes in social values and attitudes; progress in contraceptive technology; changes in family formation; increased participation in the labour market; and increasing education levels(footnote 4).

Between the 1971 and 2001 censuses, the NSW TFR declined from 2.81 births per woman to 1.77 births per woman. Available data for selected census indicators for women in the main child bearing age group of 20-49 years are presented for the 1971 through 2001 censuses. Data are reported separately for the Sydney SD and Balance of New South Wales.

TFRs for NSW women born overseas are also presented based on 2000-02 data by mother's country of birth (Table 11).

10. SELECTED CENSUS CHARACTERISTICS , for women aged 20-49 years - NSW
			1971	1981	1986	1991	1996	2001
New South Wales
With Bachelor or higher degree		%	2.1	4.6	6.1	10.5	15.3	19.7
Left School 18 Years or older		%	na	11.8	15.7	22.4	25.5	na
Labour Force participation rate		%	46.5	59.4	63.2	68.8	68.7	68.8
No. of children ever born
	Nil	%	na	25.4	27.8	na	32.8	na
	One	%	na	13.0	12.9	na	13.9	na
	2 or more	%	na	53.3	51.1	na	48.0	na
	Not stated	%	na	8.2	8.2	na	5.3	na
Total women aged 20-49 years		no.	919 389	1 065 923	1 165 422	1 277 146	1 361 736	1 392 955
Sydney SD
With Bachelor or higher degree		%	2.7	5.5	7.3	12.4	17.9	22.8
Left School 18 Years or older		%	na	8.4	18.3	15.1	18.9	na
Labour Force participation rate		%	51.4	62.4	65.8	70.9	70.0	69.5
No. of children ever born
	Nil	%	na	28.3	30.9	na	37.0	na
	One	%	na	13.3	13.0	na	14.2	na
	2 or more	%	na	49.4	46.9	na	42.8	na
	Not stated	%	na	9.0	9.2	na	6.0	na
Total women aged 20-49 years		no.	611 455	689 618	753 090	824 060	889 007	926 561
Balance of NSW
With Bachelor or higher degree		%	1.2	2.9	3.9	7.2	10.3	13.5
Left School 18 Years or older		%	na	13.6	10.9	26.3	29.0	na
Labour Force participation rate		%	37.6	53.9	58.3	64.8	66.2	67.3
No. of children ever born
	Nil	%	na	20.2	22.1	na	25.0	na
	One	%	na	12.5	12.7	na	13.3	na
	2 or more	%	na	60.6	58.7	na	57.7	na
	Not stated	%	na	6.8	6.6	na	4.0	na
Total women aged 20-49 years		no.	307 934	376 305	412 332	453 086	472 729	466 394
na not available
Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing - various years.

Number of children ever born

One indication of a decline in fertility would be a corresponding reduction in the total number of live births each woman has had during her lifetime and an increase in the number of women reporting no live births. The Census of Population and Housing included a question for women aged 15 years and over on the number of children ever born in the 1981, 1986 and 1996 censuses. This question will also be included in the 2006 census.

In 1981, 25.4% of NSW women aged 20-49 years reported no children ever born while 53.3% reported two or more children ever born. By 1996, the proportion reporting no children ever born increased to 32.8% while those reporting two or more children ever born had declined to 48.0%.

Education

The increased participation of women in education has also been linked to declining fertility. Recent Australian research supports, in part, the link between lower education outcomes and higher intended lifetime fertility(footnote 4). This would be indicated in census data by increases in women completing secondary education and increases in women obtaining a tertiary qualification.

There have been increases in the proportion of NSW women completing secondary education, particularly those outside the Sydney SD. At the 1981 census, 11.8% of NSW women aged 20-49 years reported their age at leaving school as 18 years and over. By 1996, this proportion had increased to 25.5%.

The proportion of women in NSW completing a tertiary qualification has also increased. At the 1971 census, 2.1% of women aged 20-49 years reported their highest qualification as a Bachelor or higher degree. By 2001, this had increased to 19.7%.

The proportion of women aged 20-49 years in Sydney with a Bachelor or higher degree increased from 2.7% at the 1971 census to 22.8% in 2001. In the Balance of NSW, women with the same qualification rose from 1.2% in 1971 to 13.5% in 2001.

Labour Force Participation Rate

The decline in fertility in NSW has also been paralleled by an increase in the labour force participation rate of women. The labour force participation rate for women is the number of women either employed or seeking employment expressed as a percentage of all women in the same age group.

At the 1971 census, the NSW labour force participation rate for women aged 20-49 years was 46.5%. The participation rate had increased to 63.2% in 1986 and to 68.8% in 1991. Since the 1991 census, the NSW labour force participation rate for women has remained relatively stable at around 69%.

Related to the higher level of employment opportunities in the Sydney SD, the labour force participation rate for women aged 20-49 years was higher than that for NSW. In 1971, the participation rate was 51.4%, increasing to 65.8% by 1986 and 70.9% in 1991. Since the 1991 census, the participation rate has declined slightly to 69.5% in 2001.

The labour force participation rate for women aged 20-49 years in the Balance of NSW is lower than in Sydney. However, since 1971 this difference has narrowed. In 1971 the participation rate in the Balance of NSW was 37.6%, 13.8% below the rate for Sydney. By 2001, the participation rate had increased to 67.3%, only 2.2% below the Sydney rate.

Region/country(footnote 5) of birth of mother

At the 2001 census, 33.5% (466,185) of women in NSW reported their country of birth as overseas, with 85% of these women resident in the Sydney SD. Similar to their proportional representation in the NSW population, 28.2% of births to NSW residents in 2001 were to women born overseas. However, there is considerable variability in fertility of women from different country of birth groups(footnote 6).

The 2000-02 TFR for NSW women born in Australia was 1.75 births per woman. In comparison, women resident in NSW but born in countries within the North Africa and the Middle East region experienced the highest overall fertility at 3.04 births per woman while the lowest was for women born in North-East Asia region (1.52). These figures are based on births to overseas born women only while resident in NSW.

TFRs were also calculated for women born in 30 selected countries. Of these countries, the highest 2000-02 TFRs were for women born in Samoa (4.35 births per woman), Lebanon (3.63) and Iraq (3.30) while the lowest TFRs were for women born in the Hong Kong SAR of China (0.73), the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (1.24) and Malaysia (1.30).

11. TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR)(a) by mother's country of birth, New South Wales(b) — 2000–02

Region/country of birth of mother	Total fertility rate (c)(d)	Region/country of birth of mother	Total fertility rate (c)(d)
Australia	1.75	South-East Asia	1.86
Remainder Oceania and Antarctica	2.08	Cambodia	2.39
New Zealand	1.80	Thailand	1.35
Papua New Guinea	1.85	Viet Nam	2.11
Fiji	1.99	Indonesia	1.81
Samoa	4.35	Malaysia	1.30
United Kingdom & Ireland	1.54	Philippines	2.02
Western & Northern Europe	1.63	North-East Asia	1.52
Germany	1.55	China (excludes SARs and Taiwan Province)	2.07
Southern & Eastern Europe	1.57	Hong Kong (SAR of China)	0.73
Italy	1.45	Japan	1.38
Croatia	2.02	Korea Republic of (South)	1.37
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM)	1.68	Southern & Central Asia	2.09
Yugoslavia Federal Republic of	1.24	India	1.73
North Africa & the Middle East	3.04	Sri Lanka	1.92
Egypt	2.55	Americas	1.78
Iran	1.54	Canada	1.68
Iraq	3.30	United States of America	1.91
Lebanon	3.63	Chile	1.84
Turkey	2.41	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.72
		South Africa	1.53
Source: ABS data available on request, Births Collection and Estimated Resident Population (a) To reduce the impact of small population groups on rates, the TFRs reported are averages based on 2000–02 births data and the 2001 estimated resident population by age, sex and country of birth. (b) State of usual residence. (c) Births per woman. (d) TFR based on births to overseas born women only while resident in NSW.

FOOTNOTES:

1. Australian Demographic Statistics - June 2005 (cat. no. 3101.0)
2. Barnes, A., Low fertility: a discussion paper, FaCS occasional paper no. 2, Department of Family and Community Services, Canberra, 2001.
3. Weston, R., Having children or not, Family Matters, 69, 2004, pp. 4-9.
4. Yu, P., 2006, Higher Education, the Bane of fertility? An investigation with the HILDA Survey. Centre for Economic Policy Research, ANU, 2006, p 5, 22.
5. The regions and selected countries reported are defined in the Standard Australian Classification of Countries (SACC) (cat. no. 1269.0).

6. Births, Australia (cat. no. 3301.0)