8634.0 - Tourism Indicators, Australia, Mar 2002
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 09/08/2002
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This article was published in Tourism Indicators, Australia, March 2002 (ABS Cat. No. 8634.0). Room occupancy rates Room occupancy rates represent occupancy (i.e. the total number of nights each room or unit was occupied during the period) as a percentage of total capacity. Overview As illustrated in graph F1.2, the twelve quarters from the March quarter 1999 to the March quarter 2002 saw fluctuations in the room occupancy rates in original terms for each of the accommodation categories at the Australia level. Caution should be exercised when comparing periods potentially affected by the terrorist attacks on the US and the demise of Ansett with periods affected by the Sydney Olympic and Paralympic Games (held in September and October 2000). In the September quarter 2001, the room occupancy rate was 63.1% for serviced apartments and 53.2% for motels and guest houses (an increase of 2.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively on the same quarter of the previous year). The licensed hotels room occupancy rate was 62.6% (a fall of 0.7 percentage points from the September quarter 2000). Hotels, motels, guest houses and serviced apartments with a star grading of one showed the largest decrease when compared to the September quarter 2000 (down 3.2 percentage points). Establishments with a star grading of five showed the next largest fall (1.7 percentage points), followed by establishments with a star grading of two (down 0.5 percentage points). Establishments with a three star rating recorded an increase of 0.4 percentage points, while room occupancy rates for hotels, motels, guest houses and serviced apartments rated four star didn't change. The December quarter 2001 saw the room occupancy rate decline for two of the accommodation categories. Licensed hotels recorded 61.5% while motels and guest houses recorded 52.2% (down 3.8 and 0.2 percentage points respectively compared to the December quarter 2000). Serviced apartments again fared better than the other accommodation types, recording 62%, a rise of 1.7 percentage points from the same quarter of the preceding year. In the December quarter 2001 compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the higher the star grading for hotels, motels, guest houses and serviced apartments, the bigger the decline in occupancy rates. At the top end of the spectrum, establishments with a five star grading were down 5.9 percentage points compared to the December quarter 2000 (to 66.8%), followed by those rated four star (down 2.1 percentage points, to 64.0%), three star (down 0.7 percentage points, to 53.9%) and two star (0.2 percentage points, to 43.1%). Establishments with a star grading of one, on the other hand, recorded an increase in room occupancy rates compared to the December quarter 2000 (up 1.9 percentage points, to 36.2%). In the March quarter 2002, serviced apartments reached a room occupancy rate of 65.0%, up 3.9 percentage points from the same quarter of the previous year. Motels and guest houses recorded 52.3% (up 0.8 percentage points from the March quarter 2001). Room occupancy for licensed hotels was 62.4%, a slight decline (0.5 percentage points) on the corresponding quarter of 2001. In the March quarter 2002 compared to the March quarter 2001, room occupancy rates increased for hotels, motels, guest houses and serviced apartments rated one, two, three or four star (up 3.2, 1.6, 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively). The room occupancy rate for establishments with a five star grading fell by 0.8 percentage points. The next three graphs present estimates of the room occupancy rate for each of the licensed hotels, motels and guest houses, and serviced apartments categories at the state and territory level. Licensed hotels As shown in graph F1.3, the room occupancy rate for licensed hotels grew in two states and both territories between the September quarter 2000 and the September quarter 2001. The Northern Territory recorded the greatest rise in percentage points (up 7.1), followed by the Australian Capital Territory (up 6.4), Western Australia (up 1.6) and Queensland (up 0.7). However, the room occupancy rate fell significantly in New South Wales (down 4.1 percentage points), and Victoria and Tasmania both recorded falls of 0.9 percentage points. In the December quarter 2001 (the second quarter following the terrorist attacks on the US and Ansett's demise) every state except South Australia recorded a fall in percentage points compared to the December quarter 2000. The New South Wales licensed hotels industry in the December quarter 2001 recorded the greatest drop in room occupancy rates from the same quarter of the previous year (down 5.8 percentage points) of each of the accommodation series presented at the state and territory level (graph F1.3). This followed high levels during the Olympic period. Falls were also recorded in Queensland (down 4.2 percentage points), Victoria (down 3.3), Western Australia (down 3.1), and the territories (both down 2.7). Only licensed hotels in South Australia recorded an increase (up 2.8 percentage points from the December quarter 2000). Some states and territories continued to record falls in the room occupancy rate in the March quarter 2002 compared to the March quarter 2001. The licensed hotels room occupancy rate fell by the most percentage points in Victoria (down 4.7), followed by Tasmania (down 2.4), the Northern Territory (down 0.7), and Western Australia (down 0.2). In this period, South Australia recorded the largest increase in percentage points (up 1.7), followed by New South Wales (up 0.9) and the Australian Capital Territory (up 0.7). Motels and guest houses Graph F1.4 shows that the motels and guest houses room occupancy rate improved in most states and territories in the September quarter 2001 compared to the same quarter in 2000. The Australian Capital Territory recorded the greatest rise (up 7.1 percentage points). Increases were also recorded in Queensland (up 4.1), the Northern Territory (up 3.8) and Tasmania (up 2.6). However, New South Wales recorded a fall of 2.2 percentage points, followed by Victoria (down 1.2) and South Australia (down 0.9). Most states and territories recorded decreases in occupancy rates in the December quarter 2001 compared to the December quarter 2000. South Australia recorded a fall of 2.5 percentage points, followed by Western Australia (down 1.8), the Northern Territory (down 1.7), the Australian Capital Territory (down 1.3) and New South Wales (down 0.3). In the same period, improvements were recorded by motels and guest houses in Tasmania and Queensland (both rose by 0.7 percentage points), and Victoria recorded a slight growth of 0.4 percentage points. The motels and guest houses room occupancy rate appeared to recover from any immediate impact of terrorism and Ansett's demise in most states in the March quarter 2002. The Australian Capital Territory recorded the greatest rise in percentage points compared to the March quarter 2001 (up 4.8), followed by Western Australia (up 1.6), Queensland (up 1.4), and New South Wales (up 0.7). Both Victoria and South Australia recorded an increase of 0.4 percentage points. Both the Northern Territory and Tasmania experienced decline (down 2.5 and 1.4 percentage points respectively). Serviced apartments The September quarter 2001 was the first quarter that could have encompassed any immediate effects of terrorism and the collapse of Ansett. The serviced apartments room occupancy rate grew in several states and territories in this quarter compared to the September quarter 2000 (see graph F1.5). The biggest rise in percentage points was seen in Queensland (up 6.5), followed by South Australia (up 3.2), the Australian Capital Territory (up 2.6) and Tasmania (up 0.7). Falls were recorded in New South Wales (down 1.6 percentage points), Victoria (down 1.5), Western Australia (down 1.0) and the Northern Territory (down 0.5). Over the December quarter 2000 to the December quarter 2001, the serviced apartments room occupancy rate recorded small percentage point decreases in most states and territories, with the Northern Territory down 1.8, Tasmania down 1.6, Western Australia down 1.3, Victoria down 0.4 and the Australian Capital Territory down 0.1. The series rose in South Australia, Queensland and New South Wales (up 4.6, 2.9 and 2.8 percentage points, respectively). Queensland serviced apartments in the March quarter 2002 recorded the biggest rise in room occupancy rates from the same quarter of the previous year (up 7.4 percentage points from the March quarter 2001) of each of the accommodation series presented at the state and territory level (see graph F1.5). In this period, the room occupancy rate also grew in New South Wales (up 5.5 percentage points), followed by the Australian Capital Territory and South Australia (up 3.9 and 3.4 percentage points respectively). However, serviced apartments recorded falls in Tasmania (down 4.8 percentage points), the Northern Territory (down 2.2), Victoria (down 1.4), and Western Australia (down 0.1). Takings from accommodation Graph F1.6 presents quarterly takings from accommodation for total hotels, motels, guest houses and serviced apartments in original, seasonally adjusted and trend terms at the Australia level. In the time series presented, the most significant quarterly rise in takings occurred in the original and seasonally adjusted series in the September quarter 2000 (up 28.0% and 15.4% respectively). This increase occurred for two reasons:
The impact of these events was able to be estimated and removed from the New South Wales trend series in the September quarter 2000 (and hence the Australian trend aggregates were affected by the New South Wales specific treatment). In seasonally adjusted terms (in which data are derived by estimating and removing systematic calendar related effects from the original series), takings from accommodation were $1,199.3m in the September quarter 2001. This was a fall of 0.4% or $5.3m from the preceding quarter and a fall of 7.7% ($100.3m) compared to the September quarter 2000. Seasonally adjusted takings were $1,156.4m in the December quarter 2001 (down 3.6% or $42.9m from the previous quarter). Compared to the December quarter 2000, this was a decline of 4.4% or $52.7m. In the March quarter 2002, the series climbed to $1,210.1m (up 4.6% or $53.7m from the December quarter 2001). However, in terms of percentage change from the March quarter 2001, this was a decline of 0.3% or $4m. Graph F1.7 presents the seasonally adjusted data for quarterly takings from accommodation in terms of percentage change from the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Since September and October 2000 encompassed the Olympic period, it is worth comparing the quarters following the crises of September 2001 with the corresponding quarters of two years before (graph F1.8). Using takings at current prices to do this would mean comparing takings which include GST with takings which excluded this tax. To avoid this, graph F1.8 presents seasonally adjusted takings data in average 1989-90 prices (constant price terms). With constant prices, takings from accommodation are deflated using the All Groups Consumer Price Index. This removes the effect of inflation. For example, an increase of 5% in takings from accommodation at constant prices over a period, means that takings from accommodation increased 5% more than inflation over that period. In seasonally adjusted constant price terms, takings increased for every period shown except the December quarter 2001. The December quarter 2001 recorded a fall of 0.7% when compared to the December quarter 1999. RETAIL TURNOVER This section presents original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of monthly retail turnover for the Hospitality and services industry group at the Australia level. This industry group comprises the following subgroups:
Turnover includes retail and wholesale sales; takings from repairs, meals and hiring of goods; commissions from agency activity (e.g. commissions received from collecting dry cleaning, selling lottery tickets, etc.); and net takings from gaming machines etc. Retail turnover is recorded inclusive of the GST (from July 2000). Graph F1.9 presents a time series of Hospitality and services turnover. In seasonally adjusted terms, falls were recorded in the period of the terrorist attacks and Ansett's demise. Monthly retail turnover was $2,461.7m in September 2001 (down by 0.6% or $14.5m from the previous month). This decline was followed by decreases of 2.1% ($52.3m) in October 2001, 0.3% ($6.4m) in November 2001, and 1.6% ($38.5m) in December 2001. After increasing in January and February 2002, monthly estimates of seasonally adjusted turnover decreased to $2,421.8m in March 2002 (down 1% or $24.6m from the previous month). The series then recovered by 3.9% ($95.5m) to reach $2,517.3m in April 2002. This was an increase of 6.9% compared to April 2001. The following graph presents seasonally adjusted retail turnover data in terms of percentage change from the preceding month. As noted above, falls are evident from September 2001 to December 2001. Graph F1.11 presents quarterly chain volume measures for seasonally adjusted retail turnover in hospitality and services. Chain volume estimates measure changes in quantities (or ‘real’ change) because they remove the direct effects of price changes. The graph shows that while growth in the December quarter 2001 was positive when compared to the December quarter 1999, the growth was relatively small (1.1%). Similarly, in the March quarter 2002 compared to the March quarter 2000, growth of 1.8% was recorded. OVERSEAS ARRIVALS The statistics in this section relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers (i.e. multiple movements of individual persons during a given reference period are each counted separately). Original, seasonally adjusted and trend short-term overseas visitor arrivals data are presented in graph F1.12. In trend terms, there were 362,500 short-term overseas visitor arrivals to Australia during the month of March 1999. This number increased to 400,400 during March 2002 (a total increase of 10.5%). In the same period, in seasonally adjusted terms, the number of visitor arrivals rose from 373,600 to 422,600 (up 13.1%). The seasonally adjusted series peaked during September 2000 (463,500 visitor arrivals). During September 2001, there were 409,800 overseas visitor arrivals (down 3.6% from the previous month). This number fell to 365,700 in October 2001 and 352,700 in November 2001 (monthly falls of 10.8% and 3.6% respectively). December 2001 saw a significant monthly rise of 13.4% (47,200 visitor arrivals) to reach 399,900 during December 2001. After falling by 1.6% in January 2001, the series showed signs of recovery, reaching 402,000 in February 2002 and 422,600 in March 2002 (up 2.1% and 5.1% respectively). Graph F1.13 shows seasonally adjusted movements in terms of percentage change from the corresponding month of the previous year. Significant falls in short-term overseas visitor arrivals can be seen in September 2001, October 2001 and November 2001. However, these decreases are to be expected given that the Olympics and Paralympics were held in September and October 2000 and attracted extra international visitors. When assessing the impact of the events of September 2001, it is worth looking at seasonally adjusted data compared to the same month two years previously, due to the exceptional circumstances in September and October 2000 (the Olympic and Paralympic Games). Short-term arrivals of overseas visitors would generally be expected to increase compared to the same period two years previously. Graph F1.14 presents the seasonally adjusted series in these terms. In the months up to and including September 2001, overseas visitor arrivals generally increased compared to the same months two years previously, apart from small decreases in April 1999 compared to April 1997 (down 1.2%) and July 1999 compared to July 1997 (down 0.7%). When compared to the corresponding months in 1999, significant falls were seen in October 2001 and November 2001 (down 5.2% and 8.9% respectively). In the following month, December 2001, the series was again showing positive growth (up 10.4% from December 1999). CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) The CPI indicates the rate of change in prices paid by metropolitan households for consumer goods and services, including prices paid on domestic and overseas holiday travel and accommodation. It expresses the prices of items relative to a defined base period in which the CPI is given a value of 100.0. The current reference base is 1989-90. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) classifies expenditure on 'air, sea and rail travel, car hire, hotel and motel accommodation and package charges for holidays' to the Holiday travel and accommodation subgroup of the CPI. This subgroup is split into two expenditure classes: Domestic holiday travel and accommodation, and Overseas holiday travel and accommodation. The recent changes to the airline industry in Australia affected the airfares component of the Holiday travel and accommodation CPI in several ways. Firstly, the collapse of Ansett in mid September 2001 meant that a number of domestic travellers were unable to use their advance-purchased tickets for Ansett flights. In order to travel, those Ansett customers had to purchase replacement tickets either at the special prices offered to Ansett customers by the other airlines or at prices not reflecting discounts for advance-purchased tickets. The series has also been affected by a number of new levies on domestic and international airfares introduced by the Federal Government to cover the increased costs of airline insurance following the events of 11 September 2001. Lastly, the prices used in the Australian CPI are those that would have been paid for goods and services acquired during the quarter. However, as it is common for households to book and commit to purchase airfares well in advance of the date of travel, the ABS allocates the prices paid for airfares two months in advance of the month of travel to the CPI for the actual month of travel. For example, the airfare prices collected in September 2001 were allocated to the CPI in the month of November 2001 for travel in November. This means that the December quarter 2001 was the earliest quarter in which the airfare component of the series could have been affected by the post-September 2001 economic climate. As illustrated in graph F1.15, in the 12 quarters from the March quarter 1999 to the March quarter 2002, the index for Holiday travel and accommodation grew from 109.8 to 127.3, an overall increase of 17.5 index points. In the same period, the index for the overseas expenditure class rose significantly from 99.3 to 122.6 (up 23.3 index points). This was the greatest overall increase of the three series presented. The domestic index grew from 118.3 in the March quarter 1999 to reach 130.7 in the March quarter 2002 (growth of 12.4 index points). Graph F1.16 shows that in terms of quarterly change in index points, in the given time series, the largest decrease was recorded in the Overseas holiday travel and accommodation series in the March quarter 2000 (down 11.1 index points). In the time series shown, the largest rise was by 11.6 index points in the Domestic expenditure class in the September quarter 2000. This was the quarter which included the introduction of The New Tax System in July 2000, thus affecting prices. In the most recent three quarters, the Holiday travel and accommodation index grew by 1.6 index points in the September quarter 2001, 5.6 in the December quarter 2001, and 5.7 in the March quarter 2002. The index for Domestic holiday travel and accommodation rose 0.2 index points in the September quarter 2001, followed by an increase of 9.1 index points in the December quarter 2001. This was the most significant rise in prices paid by metropolitan households in this series since the impact of The New Tax System was seen in the September quarter 2000. The Domestic expenditure class again increased in the March quarter 2002 (up 3.1 index points from the previous quarter). As shown below, the CPI for Overseas holiday travel and accommodation grew by 3.2 index points in the September quarter 2001, followed by a small increase of 1.7 index points in the December quarter 2001. The series then increased significantly in the March quarter 2002 (up 8.5 index points from the preceding quarter). BUSINESS EXPECTATIONS The statistics presented in this section are estimates of future economic activity based on the business expectations of senior executives, managers and proprietors of businesses operating in Australia. The first survey of expectations following the terrorist attacks on the US and the cessation of Ansett occurred during October and November 2001. The information collected in these months contributed to statistics on the expected aggregate change for the March quarter 2002 compared to the previous quarter and for the December quarter 2002 compared to the December quarter 2001. This means that the first quarter in which it would be possible to see any impact of the events of September 2001 would be the March quarter 2002 (for the short-term outlook) and the December quarter 2002 (for the medium-term outlook). Users should exercise caution when making comparisons with the September quarter 2000. While the GST is excluded from all data items in the business expectations series, the cost of complying with tax reform, e.g. the purchase of computer equipment or software, is included in the relevant data items. The estimates in this section relate to businesses in the following industries:
Profit Profit is a derived item based on the present trading performance of a business and the expected changes to the level of sales of goods and services and the sum of all expense items. Short-term outlook As illustrated in graph F1.17, despite some expectations of increased profit, the short-term outlook was generally gloomy in the time series from the September quarter 1999 to the September quarter 2002. Of the industry series presented, the largest fall in profit compared to the previous quarter was expected in the Retail trade industry for the March quarter 2001 (74%). Another significant fall was expected in the Retail trade industry for the March quarter 2002 compared to the previous quarter (64.4%). Decreases were also expected in the Accommodation, cafes and restaurants industry (26.6%), and the Transport, storage and communication industry (7.9%). These results are from the first survey of expectations following the crises of September 2001. Short-term expectations were not as negative for the June quarter 2002. A decline in profit of 16.4% was expected in the Accommodation, cafes and restaurants industry, followed by 8.2% in the Retail trade industry. Profit in the Transport, storage and communication industry was expected to increase by 12.6% for the June quarter 2002 over the previous quarter. In the latest available data on business expectations, short-term profit expectations declined in each of the industry categories presented. Falls were expected in the Retail trade industry for the September quarter 2002 compared to the preceding quarter (18.9%), the Accommodation, cafes and restaurants industry (18.5%), and the Transport, storage and communication industry (7.3%). Medium-term outlook Graph F1.18 is presented on the same scale as the previous graph, and shows that medium-term profit expectations were generally more positive than the short-term expectations. Businesses expected profit to fall by 14.8% in the Accommodation, cafes and restaurants industry and by 8.2% in the Retail trade industry for the December quarter 2002, compared to the December quarter 2001. However, an increase of 8.8% was expected in the Transport, storage and communication industry. Profit expectations in the Transport, storage and communication industry continued to improve for the March quarter 2003 compared to the March quarter 2002 (19.1%). An increase was also expected in the Retail trade industry (7.2%), whereas the Accommodation, cafes and restaurants industry was expected to decline by 7.1%. The year to the June quarter 2003 saw further changes in profit expectations, with the Retail trade industry expected to rise by 14.9%, and the Transport, storage and communication industry by 8.8%. The Accommodation, cafes and restaurants industry was expected to continue to decline from the June quarter 2002 (10.5%). CONCLUSION Most tourism indicators declined in relative terms immediately following the twin crises of the terrorist attacks and Ansett's demise. In recent periods, however, most of the series presented in this article have shown signs of recovery. Takings and occupancy in most types of tourist accommodation fell after the events of September 2001. Temporary falls were also evident in the retail turnover series for Hospitality and services. The number of overseas arrivals to Australia decreased before beginning to show signs of recovery. The Consumer Price Index for Holiday travel and accommodation recorded an increase in prices relating to tourism. Most businesses expected profit to decline in the aftermath of September 2001. In particular, the short-term outlook for the March quarter 2002 compared to the previous quarter reflected the pessimism of some Australian businesses. However, when last surveyed, the medium-term expectations of two of the three industry categories presented had improved. The series used in this article can be accessed through the ABS web site: <www.abs.gov.au> Spreadsheets. Data used in this analysis were those published as at end June 2002. The ABS also makes data available on request, including statistics for past quarters, for specific areas and specific data items. Normally such data are made available on a fee for service basis. For more information, please contact the ABS National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070. Document Selection These documents will be presented in a new window.
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