5671.0 - Lending Finance, Australia, Sep 2003  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 12/11/2003   
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FEATURE ARTICLE - INTRODUCTION OF CONCURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT


SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES

TREND ESTIMATES
% change
Aug 2003
Sep 2003
Aug 2003 to
$m
$m
Sep 2003
Housing finance for owner occupation
11,104
11,444
3.1
Personal finance
6,625
6,819
2.9
Commercial finance
22,991
23,375
1.7
Lease finance
547
550
0.5
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
% change
Aug 2003
Sep 2003
Aug 2003 to
$m
$m
Sep 2003
Housing finance for owner occupation
11,217
11,658
3.9
Personal finance
6,642
7,036
5.9
Commercial finance
23,433
24,180
3.2
Lease finance
589
543
–7.8



Graph - Personal Finance
Graph - Commercial finance



SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS


HOUSING FINANCE FOR OWNER OCCUPATION
  • The total value of owner-occupied housing commitments (seasonally adjusted) rose by 3.9% in September 2003. The trend series increased by 3.1% in September.

PERSONAL FINANCE
  • Total personal finance commitments (seasonally adjusted) rose by 5.9% in September 2003, following a 1.6% rise in August. Increases were recorded in both fixed lending (up 1.1%) and revolving credit commitments (up 9.7%) in September.
  • The total personal trend series continued to grow, rising by 2.9% in September 2003. The trend estimates for fixed and revolving commitments increased by 1.9% and 3.7% respectively.

COMMERCIAL FINANCE
  • Total commercial finance commitments (seasonally adjusted) increased by 3.2% in September 2003, due to a 2.9% rise in the fixed lending series and a 3.9% rise in the revolving credit series in September.
  • The purchase of dwellings by individuals for rent and resale (seasonally adjusted) increased by 5.8% in September 2003, the fifth consecutive monthly rise.
  • The trend series for total commercial finance increased by 1.7% in September 2003. The fixed lending trend rose by 2.9%, while the revolving credit trend fell by 0.9%.

LEASE FINANCE
  • Lease finance (seasonally adjusted) decreased by 7.8% in September 2003, following a 8.6% rise in August.
  • The lease finance trend rose by 0.5% in September 2003.


NOTES


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

In the August issue we indicated that we were investigating some reporting quality issues. These investigations have resulted in significant revisions to the value of total housing finance commitments for owner occupation and personal finance commitments for August. The revisions to housing finance
were mainly made to established dwelling finance and have increased total value of housing finance commitments for owner occupation - established dwellings (seasonally adjusted) for August from $6 728m to $6 930m.


SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT

From the next issue of this publication, the concurrent adjustment method of seasonal adjustment will replace the forward factor approach used up until now.
The main difference between the two methods is that the concurrent adjustment method uses the most recently available data every month to re-estimate
seasonal factors whereas the forward factor approach uses the most recently available data only once a year to produce forward estimates of the seasonal
factors. Experience with a wide range of ABS collections indicates that concurrent adjustment generally produces more accurate initial seasonally adjusted
estimates. However, it can result in revisions to the seasonally adjusted estimates for previous months.

A note showing the impacts of the change in methodology on the Housing Finance for Owner Occupation series in this publication is available on on this
website by clicking on AusStats.


SUMMARY OF FINDINGS


HOUSING FINANCE FOR OWNER OCCUPATION

The total value of commitments (seasonally adjusted) increased by 3.9% in September 2003, after a rise of 5.3% in August. The trend series continued its run of increases since March 2002, rising by 3.1% in September 2003.

For further information refer to Housing Finance For Owner Occupation, Australia (cat. no. 5609.0).

PERSONAL FINANCE

Total personal finance commitments (seasonally adjusted) rose by 5.9% to $7 036 million in September 2003. Revolving credit commitments continued its growth, rising by 9.7% to $4 094 million in September, following a 1.5% increase in August. Fixed lending commitments increased by 1.1% to $2 942 million in September.

The total personal finance commitments trend series increased by 2.9% in September 2003. The revolving credit trend series increased by 3.7%, while the fixed lending series rose by 1.9% in September.

COMMERCIAL FINANCE

Total commercial finance commitments (seasonally adjusted) grew by 3.2% to $24 180 million in September 2003. This increase was driven by rises in fixed lending (up 2.9%) and revolving credit (up 3.9%).

The purchase of dwellings for rent or resale by individuals (seasonally adjusted) increased for the fifth consecutive month, rising by 5.8% to reach $5 902 million in September 2003. The trend for this series rose by 3.6% in September, continuing the growth evident since November 2001.

In original terms, commercial finance for housing (including finance for construction and finance for rent or resale) was 38.5% higher in September 2003 compared with September 2002, while housing for owner occupation (including alterations and additions) increased by 42.2% over the same period.


Graph - Purchase of Dwellings by Individuals for Rent or Resale


LEASE FINANCE

In seasonally adjusted terms, the volatile lease finance series fell by 7.8% to $543 million in September 2003, after a 8.6% rise in August. The lease finance trend series grew by 0.5% in September 2003, driven by the strong growth in the seasonally adjusted series over the last four months.

FURTHER INFORMATION

For further information about these and related statistics, contact Vincent Nguyen on Canberra 02 6252 6398, or the ABS National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070.