RECENT TRENDS IN VICTORIAN FERTILITY RATES

The total fertility rate is the sum of age-specific fertility rates (live births at each age of mother per female population of that age). It represents the number of children a female would bear during her lifetime if she experienced current age-specific fertility rates at each age of her reproductive life.

A total of 71,200 births were registered in Victoria in 2008, compared with 61,100 births in 2003, an increase of 16.6%, which compares with an overall increase in estimated resident population of 7.9% over the same period. Victoria had a total fertility rate of 1.86 babies per woman in 2008, up from 1.66 babies per woman in 2003. Between 2003 and 2008, the total fertility rate in Victoria increased by 12.0%. Over the period, Victoria consistently recorded a lower total fertility rate than Australia overall.

Although the total fertility rate for Victoria overall has increased in recent years, there have been significant differences in the rate of change between Local Government Areas (LGAs) across the state. Total fertility rates are presented below for LGAs as average rates over the three years ending in the reference year. For example, a reference to 2008 relates to the three-year period 2006-2008.

The largest increase in the total fertility rate (36.5%) was observed in Alpine, from 1.70 babies per woman in 2003 to 2.23 babies per woman in 2008. In contrast, in Queenscliffe the total fertility rate dropped by 14.3% between 2003 and 2008, from 1.61 babies per woman in 2003 to 1.38 babies per woman in 2008. This was the largest decrease among all LGAs.

Focusing on LGAs in the Melbourne Statistical Division (SD), the largest increases in the total fertility rate between 2003 and 2008 were observed in Melton (19.3%), Monash (17.0%) and Banyule (16.9%). Melbourne LGA had Victoria's lowest total fertility rate in 2008 (1.06 babies per woman), and was the only LGA in the Melbourne SD to record a decrease in the total fertility rate when comparing 2003 and 2008 (down from 1.07 babies). The slight decrease between these two periods reflects a decline in Melbourne LGA's total fertility rate to 0.96 in 2005 followed by subsequent increases to 2008, but not to the level observed in 2003.

Further commentary comparing fertility rates and other characteristics of births between the states and territories can be found in Births, Australia (cat. no. 3301.0) (Contents, Summary of findings, STATE AND TERRITORY). Summary data on births in Victoria and its regions can be found on the Downloads page of the same publication (Tables 1-4).

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