FERTILITY RATES

Series B uses a fertility assumption that incorporates an annual decline of 0.5% in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility rates, resulting in a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.09 by 2026. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken into the effect of alternative fertility assumptions on the size of the future Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and the number of projected births.

Extra projection series were generated using the following assumptions:

• no decline in fertility rates (a TFR of 2.25 by 2026); and
• an annual decline of 1.0% in fertility rates (a TFR of 1.95 by 2026).

Table 4.1 shows the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population at 30 June 2011 and the projected Australian and state/territory populations in 2026 under the three fertility assumptions. Table 4.2 shows the number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander births for 2012 and 2026 under these assumptions. In both tables, assumptions relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander paternity rates, life expectancy at birth and interstate migration are at levels specified for Series B.

4.1 PROJECTED ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER POPULATION(a), Alternative fertility assumptions - At 30 June 2011 and 2026
		2026
	2011	Constant (Series D)	0.5% annual decrease (Series B)	1.0% annual decrease (Series E)
	'000	'000	'000	'000
NSW	208.5	285.2	283.0	280.8
Vic.	47.3	70.2	69.6	69.2
Qld	189.0	274.4	271.9	269.4
SA	37.4	51.7	51.2	50.8
WA	88.3	120.4	119.4	118.5
Tas.	24.2	34.2	34.0	33.7
NT	68.9	86.8	86.1	85.3
ACT	6.2	9.5	9.5	9.4
Aust.(b)	669.9	932.8	925.0	917.4
(a) Assuming Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander paternity rates increase by 1.0% per year, life expectancy at birth reaches 73.5 years for males and 77.4 years for females by 2026, and migration remains at the levels observed in the 2011 Census.
(b) Includes Other Territories.

4.2 PROJECTED BIRTHS OF ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER CHILDREN(a), Alternative fertility assumptions - Year ended 30 June 2012 and 2026
		2026
	2012	Constant (Series D)	0.5% annual decrease (Series B)	1.0% annual decrease (Series E)
	'000	'000	'000	'000
NSW	5.3	7.7	7.4	7.1
Vic.	1.2	1.9	1.9	1.8
Qld	5.1	7.6	7.2	6.9
SA	0.9	1.3	1.2	1.2
WA	2.1	2.8	2.7	2.6
Tas.	0.6	0.9	0.9	0.8
NT	1.5	1.7	1.6	1.5
ACT	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2
Aust.(b)	16.8	24.2	23.1	22.0
(a) Assuming Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander paternity rates increase by 1.0% per year, life expectancy at birth reaches 73.5 years for males and 77.4 years for females by 2026, and migration remains at the levels observed in the 2011 Census.
(b) Includes Other Territories.

Based on the main fertility assumption (0.5% annual decline in fertility rates), the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 925,000 people in 2026 (Series B), and the number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander births increases from 16,800 in 2012 to 23,100 in 2026 (table 4.2).

Assuming fertility rates remain constant (Series D), the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 932,800 people in 2026, 7,900 (0.8%) people more than in Series B. Under this assumption there would be 24,200 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander births in 2026, 1,100 (4.9%) more than in Series B. This equates to 2.6% more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children aged 0-14 years in 2026 compared with Series B.

Assuming a 1.0% annual decline in fertility rates (Series E), the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 917,400 people in 2026, 7,500 (0.8%) people fewer than in Series B. Under this assumption there would be 22,000 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander births in 2026, 1,000 (4.5%) fewer than in Series B. This equates to 2.5% fewer Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children aged 0-14 years in 2026 compared with Series B.

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