COMMENTARY


STAGE OF PRODUCTION (SOP) OVERVIEW

In March quarter 2009, the final (Stage 3) index recorded a decrease of 0.4%, the intermediate (Stage 2) index recorded a decrease of 3.2%, whilst the preliminary (Stage 1) index recorded a decrease of 4.6%. Through the year to March quarter 2009, the final (Stage 3) index increased by 4.0%, the intermediate (Stage 2) index increased by 3.9% and the preliminary (Stage 1) index increased by 4.3%.

The decrease of 0.4% in the final (Stage 3) index reflected a fall of 1.0% in the price of domestically produced items, and a rise of 3.9% in the price of imported items. The domestic component decreased due to price falls in building construction (-1.6%), petroleum refining (-10.0%) and bakery product manufacturing (-7.2%). These decreases were partially offset by price rises in electricity, gas and water (+2.0%), and other agriculture (+4.3%). The imports component increased due to price rises for industrial machinery and equipment manufacturing (+6.9%), motor vehicle and part manufacturing (+4.4%), photographic and scientific equipment manufacturing (+13.5%) and tobacco product manufacturing (+23.2%). These increases were partially offset by price falls in dairy product manufacturing (-35.7%) and basic chemical manufacturing (-48.2%).

The decrease of 3.2% in the intermediate (Stage 2) index reflected a fall of 2.3% in the price of domestically produced items and a fall of 8.3% in the price of imported items. The domestic component recorded price falls for grain, sheep, beef and dairy cattle farming (-11.4%), petroleum refining (-12.7%), basic non-ferrous metal manufacturing (-20.8%) and metal ore mining (-13.3%). These decreases were partially offset by price rises in marketing and business management services (+2.6%). The imports component decreased due to price falls in oil and gas extraction (-39.3%), basic chemical manufacturing (-26.1%), petroleum refining (-24.8%), iron and steel manufacturing (-7.4%) and dairy product manufacturing (-35.7%). These decreases were partially offset by price rises in motor vehicle and part manufacturing (+15.8%), photographic and scientific equipment (+15.1%) and industrial machinery and equipment manufacturing (+4.2%).

The decrease of 4.6% in the preliminary (Stage 1) index reflected a fall of 2.7% in the price of domestically produced items and a fall of 16.0% in the price of imported items. The domestic component recorded price falls for basic chemical manufacturing (-20.2%), petroleum refining (-12.7%) and basic non-ferrous metal manufacturing (-20.8%). These decreases were partially offset by price rises in marketing and business management services (+2.6%). The imports component decreased due to price falls in oil and gas extraction (-39.3%), basic chemical manufacturing (-26.1%), petroleum refining (-24.1%) and iron and steel manufacturing (-6.4%). These increases were partially offset by price rises in motor vehicle and part manufacturing (+16.1%), industrial machinery and equipment manufacturing (+4.1%) and photographic and scientific equipment (+15.1%).

MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES PRODUCER PRICE INDEXES

During the March quarter 2009, the prices paid by manufacturers for material inputs decreased by 8.1%, while the prices they received for their outputs decreased by 4.3%. Through the year to March quarter 2009, prices of material inputs increased by 0.8%, while prices for their outputs fell by 1.0%.

Price decreases for products from oil and gas extraction (-27.6%) and dairy cattle farming (-22.0%) drove the falls in the cost of materials used in the manufacturing industries. Major contributors to these price decreases were domestic and imported crude oil, whole milk and cattle and calves. Price increases for products from textile fibre, yarn and woven fabric manufacturing (+12.0%) and motor vehicle and part manufacturing (+8.0%) provided offsets to the price decreases.

The decrease in prices received for articles produced by manufacturing industries was mainly due to falls in the prices of outputs from petroleum refining (-15.7%), basic non-ferrous metal manufacturing (-31.9%), meat and meat products (-6.1%) and dairy product manufacturing (-5.6%). Major contributors to these price decreases were diesel, unleaded petrol and kerosene, as well as alumina and aluminium smelting, frozen beef and cheese and curd. These decreases were partly offset by increases in the prices received for outputs from basic chemical manufacturing (+7.2%), industrial machinery and equipment (+2.8%), tobacco product manufacturing (+7.8%) and other manufacturing (+8.5%).

CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRIES PRODUCER PRICE INDEXES

The price index for materials used in house building increased by 1.3% in the March quarter 2009. This follows consecutive price increases of 1.3% in the December quarter 2008, 2.6% in the September quarter 2008 and 1.5% in the June quarter 2008. The most significant increases were price rises for other metal products (+1.9%), other materials (+1.1%) and timber board and joinery (+0.6%).

Melbourne (+1.1%) contributed the most to the overall weighted average of six capital cities quarterly movement, followed by Sydney (+1.5%) and Brisbane (+1.4%). The largest percentage increase was for Hobart (+2.0%). Increases were recorded for all the state capitals.

Through the year to March quarter 2009, the materials used in house building price index rose by 6.9%. This rise was mainly attributed to increases in prices paid for steel products (+51.8%), other metal products (+8.1%) and concrete, cement and sand (+7.8%).

The price index for the output of the general construction industry decreased by 1.5% in the March quarter 2009 and increased by 1.7% through the year to March quarter 2009. The quarterly decrease was mainly influenced by a price fall in Queensland (-2.9%), Victoria (-1.8%) and Western Australia (-1.4%).

Non-residential building construction (-2.5%) contributed the most to the overall weighted average decrease in the March quarter 2009 general construction movement, followed by residential building construction n.e.c. (-2.5%), road and bridge construction (-0.9%) and house construction (-0.5%).

SERVICE INDUSTRIES PRODUCER PRICE INDEXES

The property and business services industries price index decreased by 0.4% in the March quarter 2009, and increased by 2.9% through the year to March quarter 2009.

The property services index decreased by 2.0% in the March quarter 2009, and increased by 1.3% through the year to March quarter 2009. The main contributors to the decrease were commercial property operators and developers (-2.1%) and real estate agents (-2.4%). The business services index increased by 0.7% in the March quarter 2009, and increased by 4.1% through the year to March quarter 2009. The main contributor to the increase was business management services (+2.5%).

The transport (freight) and storage industries index decreased by 2.5% in the March quarter 2009, and increased by 5.6% through the year to March quarter 2009. The main contributors to the decrease were road freight transport (-2.8%), international sea transport (-5.9%), rail transport (-3.1%), scheduled international air transport (-4.9%) and coastal water transport (-7.1%).