ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,684m in October 2015, a decrease of $106m (4%) on the deficit in September 2015.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $3,305m in October 2015, an increase of $902m (38%) on the deficit in September 2015.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Aug 2015	Sep 2015	Oct 2015	Oct 2015	Oct 2015
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				-2 674	-2 403	-3 305	-902	-38
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			26 499	27 423	26 594	-829	-3
		Total goods		21 135	22 024	21 187	-837	-4
			Rural goods(b)	3 719	3 756	3 595	-161	-4
			Non-rural goods(b)	16 006	16 721	16 177	-544	-3
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	36	37	21	-16	-43
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 374	1 509	1 394	-115	-8
		Total services		5 364	5 399	5 407	8	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-29 174	-29 826	-29 900	74	-
		Total goods		-23 139	-23 697	-23 791	94	-
			Consumption goods	-8 156	-8 433	-8 084	-349	-4
			Capital goods	-5 315	-5 513	-5 756	243	4
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 325	-9 247	-9 515	268	3
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-343	-504	-435	-69	-14
		Total services		-6 034	-6 129	-6 109	-20	-
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				-2 854	-2 790	-2 684	106	4
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			26 569	26 806	27 043	237	1
		Total goods		21 201	21 419	21 635	216	1
			Rural goods(b)	3 704	3 689	3 673	-16	-
			Non-rural goods(b)	16 080	16 242	16 408	166	1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	33	32	31	-1	-3
			Non-monetary gold	1 384	1 456	1 524	68	5
		Total services		5 368	5 387	5 408	21	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-29 423	-29 596	-29 727	131	-
		Total goods		-23 345	-23 506	-23 626	120	1
			Consumption goods	-8 122	-8 211	-8 258	47	1
			Capital goods	-5 388	-5 491	-5 600	109	2
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 446	-9 391	-9 328	-63	-1
			Non-monetary gold	-388	-413	-439	26	6
		Total services		-6 079	-6 090	-6 101	11	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between September and October 2015, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $237m (1%) to $27,043m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $829m (3%) to $26,594m. Non-rural goods fell $544m (3%), rural goods fell $161m (4%), non-monetary gold fell $115m (8%) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell $16m (43%). Services credits rose $8m.


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Aug 2015	Sep 2015	Oct 2015	Oct 2015	Oct 2015
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				21 135	22 024	21 187	-837	-4
	General merchandise			19 725	20 478	19 772	-706	-3
		Rural goods		3 719	3 756	3 595	-161	-4
			Meat and meat preparations	1 116	1 135	1 089	-46	-4
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	764	755	683	-72	-10
			Wool and sheepskins	293	286	259	-27	-9
			Other rural(a)	1 546	1 581	1 564	-17	-1
		Non-rural goods		16 006	16 721	16 177	-544	-3
			Metal ores and minerals	6 013	6 501	6 135	-366	-6
			Coal, coke and briquettes(b)	3 325	3 035	2 993	-42	-1
			Other mineral fuels(c)	1 973	1 990	2 032	42	2
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	831	1 096	921	-175	-16
			Machinery	889	886	902	16	2
			Transport equipment	462	451	468	17	4
			Other manufactures	1 513	1 586	1 524	-62	-4
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	878	1 050	1 081	31	3
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	123	127	122	-5	-4
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(d)			36	37	21	-16	-43
	Non-monetary gold(d)			1 374	1 509	1 394	-115	-8
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $16m to $3,673m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $161m (4%) to $3,595m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $72m (10%)
• meat and meat preparations, down $46m (4%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $166m (1%) to $16,408m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $544m (3%) to $16,177m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, down $366m (6%)
• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), down $175m (16%)
• other manufactures, down $62m (4%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (3%) to $31m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $16m (43%) to $21m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $68m (5%) to $1,524m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $115m (8%) to $1,394m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Aug 2015	Sep 2015	Oct 2015	Oct 2015	Oct 2015
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
Total services credits			5 364	5 399	5 407	8	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		1	2	1	-1	-50
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		8	7	3	-4	-57
	Transport		541	539	542	3	1
		Passenger(b)	202	201	197	-4	-2
		Freight(c)	19	16	18	2	13
		Other	224	226	225	-1	-
		Postal and courier services(d)	96	96	101	5	5
	Travel		3 283	3 311	3 315	4	-
	Other services		1 531	1 540	1 547	7	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related service credits(e)		3 485	3 512	3 512	-	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, service credits rose $21m to $5,408m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $8m to $5,407m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was other services, up $7m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service credits remained steady at $3,512m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 20% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between September and October 2015, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $131m to $29,727m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $74m to $29,900m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $268m (3%) and capital goods rose $243m (4%). Consumption goods fell $349m (4%) and non-monetary gold fell $69m (14%). Services debits fell $20m.


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Aug 2015	Sep 2015	Oct 2015	Oct 2015	Oct 2015
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-23 139	-23 697	-23 791	94	-
	General merchandise			-22 796	-23 193	-23 356	163	1
		Consumption goods		-8 156	-8 433	-8 084	-349	-4
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 167	-1 163	-1 164	1	-
			Household electrical items	-502	-521	-512	-9	-2
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 881	-2 085	-1 799	-286	-14
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 428	-1 487	-1 473	-14	-1
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-567	-570	-547	-23	-4
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 611	-2 606	-2 590	-16	-1
		Capital goods		-5 315	-5 513	-5 756	243	4
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-1 693	-1 667	-2 206	539	32
			ADP equipment	-773	-840	-846	6	1
			Telecommunications equipment	-864	-917	-932	15	2
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-786	-532	-473	-59	-11
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-652	-795	-1 031	236	30
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-547	-762	-269	-493	-65
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-9 325	-9 247	-9 515	268	3
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-148	-157	-156	-1	-1
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-111	-165	-185	20	12
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-2 618	-2 274	-2 280	6	-
			Parts for transport equipment	-913	-989	-1 044	55	6
			Parts for ADP equipment	-58	-62	-57	-5	-8
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 247	-1 291	-1 283	-8	-1
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-370	-371	-346	-25	-7
			Paper and paperboard	-204	-202	-213	11	5
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-130	-128	-130	2	2
			Iron and steel	-443	-449	-433	-16	-4
			Plastics	-345	-340	-342	2	1
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-2 586	-2 644	-2 889	245	9
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-30	-55	-35	-20	-36
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-121	-121	-120	-1	-1
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-343	-504	-435	-69	-14
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $47m (1%) to $8,258m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $349m (4%) to $8,084m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-industrial transport equipment, down $286m (14%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $109m (2%) to $5,600m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $243m (4%) to $5,756m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• machinery and industrial equipment, up $539m (32%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $236m (30%).

Partly offsetting these rises was capital goods n.e.s., down $493m (65%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $63m (1%) to $9,328m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $268m (3%) to $9,515m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $245m (9%)
• parts for transport equipment, up $55m (6%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $26m (6%) to $439m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $69m (14%) to $435m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Aug 2015	Sep 2015	Oct 2015	Oct 2015	Oct 2015
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
Total services debits			-6 034	-6 129	-6 109	-20	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-21	-38	-42	4	11
	Transport		-1 439	-1 468	-1 468	-	-
		Passenger(c)	-531	-527	-526	-1	-
		Freight	-840	-872	-871	-1	-
		Other(b)	-62	-64	-64	-	-
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-5	-6	-7	1	17
	Travel		-2 416	-2 454	-2 455	1	-
	Other services		-2 158	-2 170	-2 143	-27	-1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related service debits(f)		-2 948	-2 980	-2 982	2	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $11m to $6,101m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $20m to $6,109m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was other services, down $27m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of tourism related services debits rose $2m to $2,982m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 20% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a) - Original terms
		Change in
		May 2015	Jun 2015	Jul 2015	Aug 2015	Sep 2015	Oct 2015
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	12	5	1	-2	-3	11
	Unit value	10	2	-13	6	4	-5
Fines
	Quantity	5	8	-6	5	4	-7
	Unit value	6	8	-8	1	5	-3
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	16	15	-15	4	-4	-5
	Unit value	-10	-	3	1	p2	p10
Semi-soft
	Quantity	17	5	-6	21	-8	2
	Unit value	-6	-4	-	-1	p-1	p5
Thermal
	Quantity	9	12	-4	9	-13	5
	Unit value	-3	-	2	2	1	-2
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	np	np	np	4	-12	17
	Unit value	np	np	np	3	5	-3
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to DIBP. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to DIBP. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to DIBP and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between September and October 2015 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, up $58m (5%), with quantities up 11% and unit values down 5%. Exports to:

• Japan rose $30m (17%), with quantities up 13% and unit values up 4%
• the Republic of Korea rose $20m (45%), with quantities up 77% and unit values down 18%.

Iron ore fines, down $338m (10%), with quantities down 7% and unit values down 3%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $426m (15%), with quantities down 11% and unit values down 4%
• Japan rose $57m (25%), with quantities up 30% and unit values down 4%.

Hard coking coal, up $51m (4%), with quantities down 5% and unit values up 10%. Exports to:

• Turkey rose $53m, following no exports in September 2015
• Japan rose $50m (30%), with quantities up 22% and unit values up 6%
• Taiwan fell $54m (64%), with quantities down 65% and unit values up 4%.

Semi-soft coal, up $43m (8%), with quantities up 2% and unit values up 5%. Exports to:

• the Republic of Korea rose $85m (91%), with quantities up 84% and unit values up 4%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $45m (70%), with quantities up 52% and unit values up 12%
• Japan fell $36m (18%), with quantities down 18% and unit values down 1%
• India fell $32m (30%), with quantities down 39% and unit values up 15%.

Thermal coal, up $31m (2%), with quantities up 5% and unit values down 2%. Exports to:

• Taiwan rose $63m (63%), with quantities up 67% and unit values down 2%
• Japan rose $48m (8%), with quantities up 12% and unit values down 4%
• the Republic of Korea fell $45m (18%), with quantities down 9% and unit values down 10%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), up $182m (13%), with quantities up 17% and unit values down 3%.


COUNTRY BREAKDOWN

The following charts show Australia's major trading partners for the financial year 2014-15. The charts include both trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis). The first chart shows the countries with the largest two-way trade, i.e., combined trade in both exports and imports of goods and services. The second chart shows total exports and total imports for each of these countries.

Combining trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis) provides a good approximation of total trade. Some components will be excluded (e.g. merchanting credits and goods procured in ports by carriers debits) while the manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others component will be double counted. These components are unlikely to impact on the broader analysis.

Exports data with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are now being excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown presented in the time series spreadsheet table 14a. In 2014-15, these restrictions represented 2.43% of the total exports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

Imports data with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown presented in the time series spreadsheet table 14b. In 2014-15, these restrictions represented 2.71% of the total imports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

For further details about these restrictions see Explanatory Notes paragraphs 26 - 28.