ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,227m in March 2015, an increase of $33m (3%) on the deficit in February 2015.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,322m in March 2015, a decrease of $287m (18%) on the deficit in February 2015.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balance for the three months to March 2015 was a deficit of $4,066m, an increase of $1,424m (54%) on the deficit of $2,642m for the three months to December 2014. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary March quarter 2015 deficit was $4,105m, an increase of $1,306m (47%) on the December quarter 2014 deficit of $2,799m.

Revised quarterly estimates will be included in Balance of Payments - Goods and Services, Preliminary Quarterly Estimates (cat. no. 5302.0.55.004) and Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February and March 2015, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $67m to $27,480m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $415m (2%) to $27,217m. Non-rural goods fell $393m (2%) and rural goods fell $81m (2%). Non-monetary gold rose $18m (1%). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $34m. Services credits rose $42m (1%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $104m (3%) to $3,838m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $81m (2%) to $3,833m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was other rural, down $126m (7%).

Partly offsetting this fall was meat and meat preparations, up $60m (5%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $85m to $16,917m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $393m (2%) to $16,575m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other mineral fuels, down $724m (28%)
• metal ores and minerals, down $158m (2%).

Partly offsetting these falls was coal, coke and briquettes, up $494m (15%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $2m (6%) to $34m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $34m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $24m (2%) to $1,335m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $18m (1%) to $1,405m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $24m to $5,355m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $42m (1%) to $5,371m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $39m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service credits rose $39m (1%) to $3,414m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February and March 2015, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $100m to $28,707m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $702m (2%) to $28,539m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $385m (4%), capital goods fell $238m (4%) and consumption goods fell $208m (3%). Non-monetary gold rose $14m (4%). Services debits rose $115m (2%).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $60m (1%) to $7,399m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $208m (3%) to $7,308m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• non-industrial transport equipment, down $123m (7%)
• household electrical items, down $66m (12%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., down $56m (2%).

Partly offsetting these falls was food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $43m (4%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $42m (1%) to $5,789m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $238m (4%) to $5,654m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was capital goods n.e.s., down $411m (34%).

Partly offsetting this fall were:

• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $81m (14%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, up $71m (4%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $23m to $9,389m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $385m (4%) to $9,305m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $391m (12%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $11m (3%) to $336m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $14m (4%) to $376m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, imports of services debits rose $10m to $5,794m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of services debits rose $115m (2%) to $5,896m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., up $43m (83%)
• transport, up $34m (2%), with freight transport up $24m (3%)
• travel, up $32m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of tourism related service debits rose $43m (2%) to $2,888m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis: International merchandise trade basis (a) - Original terms
		Change in
		Oct 2014	Nov 2014	Dec 2014	Jan 2015	Feb 2015	Mar 2015
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	-9	1	19	-12	-7	17
	Unit value	-1	-2	5	-2	3	-7
Fines
	Quantity	7	-8	9	-9	-1	2
	Unit value	-5	-5	-	-	-2	-7
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	-	7	-11	-1	-16	33
	Unit value	7	1	5	3	p8	p -
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-2	-13	33	-17	-21	25
	Unit value	3	1	6	3	p5	p2
Thermal
	Quantity	1	3	13	-13	-7	9
	Unit value	-2	3	5	-2	5	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Australian Customs and Border Protection Service (Customs and Border Protection). At the time of initial reporting to Customs and Border Protection, the final prices at which transactions take place are not known for iron ore and coal. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Customs and Border Protection. For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Customs and Border Protection. When additional information on quantity and/or unit price for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Iron ore adjustments are applied on an international merchandise trade basis at the Australian Harmonized Export Commodity Classification (AHECC) level. Negative adjustments of $40m and $35m have been applied to iron ore lump in February and March 2015 respectively. Negative adjustments of $45m and $250m have been applied to iron ore fines in February and March 2015 respectively. When actual final transaction prices become available estimates are replaced with these data.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Customs and Border Protection and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between February and March 2015 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, up $93m (9%), with quantities up 17% and unit values down 7%. Exports to:

• Japan rose $52m (31%), with quantities up 30%
• Taiwan rose $33m (59%), with quantities up 79% and unit values down 11%.

Iron ore fines, down $156m (5%), with quantities up 2% and unit values down 7%. Exports to China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $145m (6%), with quantities up 2% and unit values down 8%.

Hard coking coal, up $396m (33%), with quantities up 33%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $119m (56%), with quantities up 59% and unit values down 2%
• the Republic of Korea rose $78m (90%), with quantities up 94% and unit values down 2%
• Japan rose $48m (29%), with quantities up 25% and unit values up 3%.

Semi-soft coal, up $137m (27%), with quantities up 25% and unit values up 2%. Exports to:

• Japan rose $47m (30%), with quantities up 30%
• the Republic of Korea rose $31m (31%), with quantities up 28% and unit values up 3%
• India rose $25m (30%), with quantities up 23% and unit values up 6%.

Thermal coal, up $133m (10%), with quantities up 9% and unit values up 1%. Exports to:

• Taiwan rose $110m (104%), with quantities up 93% and unit values up 6%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $59m (31%), with quantities up 31%
• Malaysia rose $31m (100%), with quantities up 81% and unit values up 11%
• Japan fell $50m (8%), with quantities down 9% and unit values up 1%.