IMPACT OF NATURAL DISASTERS


IMPACT OF THE AUSTRALIAN FLOODS

Extensive flooding began in late December 2010 in Queensland, and was more extensive in both Queensland and other states in January 2011. The collection and processing of data included in this publication were not disrupted.

On a month to month basis the export and import of goods can be impacted by a number of factors including exchange rates, supply constraints, consumer confidence and seasonal patterns. The impact of an event like the Queensland floods on exports can not be readily quantified. However, the following analysis identifies the major components that in March 2011 differed from the five year average recorded trade movement between February and March for Queensland*:

• hard coking coal rose $437m (46%), with an average increase of $116m (17%) between February and March over the previous five years
• bituminous (thermal) coal rose $45m (23%), with an average increase of $7m (10%) between February and March over the previous five years.

*Separate estimates for semi-soft coking metallurgical coal for Queensland are not available due to confidentiality restrictions.

A large extreme correction is applied to prevent trend estimates from being biased by an unusually large or small original estimate. Such corrections can also help stabilise seasonal factor estimates. Details on the use of large extreme corrections to stabilise the trend during unusual events can be found in the feature article When it's not "Business-as-usual": Implications for ABS Time Series in Australian Economic Indicators, August 2009 (cat. no. 1350.0).

Corrections have been applied to the balance of payments basis 'coke, coal and briquettes' component for January, February and March 2011 in order to stabilise the trend estimate for goods credits. The most recent data points in the trend series are subject to revisions as additional observations are included. Caution should be exercised in interpreting these trend estimates. The ABS will continue to monitor this series.


JAPANESE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI

The earthquake and tsunami events in Japan occurred in mid March 2011. These events have not impacted the activity in this publication. The ABS expects the economic impact on trade between Australia and Japan to be reflected in forthcoming issues.