LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH

Series B assumes that life expectancy at birth for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples increases by 0.3 years per year for males and 0.25 years per year for females, reaching 73.5 years for males and 77.4 years for females by 2026. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken into the effect of alternative life expectancy at birth assumptions on the size of the future Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and the number of projected deaths.

Extra projection series were generated using the following assumptions:

• Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth will increase by 0.2 years per year for males and 0.15 years per year for females, reaching 72.0 years for males and 75.9 years for females by 2026; and
• Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth will increase by 0.5 years per year for males and 0.45 years per year for females, reaching 76.5 years for males and 80.4 years for females by 2026.

Table 4.5 shows the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population at 30 June 2011 and the projected Australian and state/territory populations in 2026 under the three life expectancy at birth assumptions. Table 4.6 shows the number of deaths of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people for 2012 and 2026 under these assumptions. For both tables, assumptions relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility rates, paternity rates and interstate migration are at levels specified in Series B.

4.5 PROJECTED ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER POPULATION(a), Alternative life expectancy at birth assumptions - At 30 June 2011 and 2026
		2026
	2011	Series I(b)	Series B(c)	Series H(d)
	'000	'000	'000	'000
NSW	208.5	282.0	283.0	284.7
Vic.	47.3	69.4	69.6	70.1
Qld	189.0	271.0	271.9	273.5
SA	37.4	51.1	51.2	51.5
WA	88.3	119.0	119.4	120.1
Tas.	24.2	33.9	34.0	34.1
NT	68.9	85.8	86.1	86.5
ACT	6.2	9.4	9.5	9.5
Aust.(e)	669.9	921.9	925.0	930.4
(a) Assuming Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility rates decline by 0.5% per year, paternity rates increase by 1.0% per year, and interstate migration remains at the levels observed in the 2011 Census.
(b) Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth increases by 0.2 years per year for males and 0.15 years per year for females, reaching 72.0 years for males and 75.9 years for females by 2026.
(c) Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth increases by 0.3 years per year for males and 0.25 years per year for females, reaching 73.5 years for males and 77.4 years for females by 2026.
(d) Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth increases by 0.5 years per year for males and 0.45 years per year for females, reaching 76.5 years for males and 80.4 years for females by 2026.
(e) Includes Other Territories.

4.6 PROJECTED DEATHS OF ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER PERSONS(a), Alternative life expectancy at birth assumptions - Year ended 30 June 2012 and 2026
		2026
	2012(b)	Series I(c)	Series B(d)	Series H(e)
	no.	no.	no.	no.
NSW	787	1 215	1 093	876
Vic.	270	352	322	268
Qld	818	1 239	1 124	924
SA	187	257	235	196
WA	335	525	476	389
Tas.	59	111	98	75
NT	198	345	310	247
ACT	10	24	21	16
Aust.(f)	2 666	4 070	3 681	2 993
(a) Assuming Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility rates decline by 0.5% per year, paternity rates increase by 1.0% per year, and interstate migration remains at the levels observed in the 2011 Census.
(b) Number of deaths projected under Series B.
(c) Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth increases by 0.2 years per year for males and 0.15 years per year for females, reaching 72.0 years for males and 75.9 years for females by 2026.
(d) Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth increases by 0.3 years per year for males and 0.25 years per year for females, reaching 73.5 years for males and 77.4 years for females by 2026.
(e) Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth increases by 0.5 years per year for males and 0.45 years per year for females, reaching 76.5 years for males and 80.4 years for females by 2026.
(f) Includes Other Territories.

Using Series B life expectancy assumptions, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 925,000 in 2026. The number of deaths of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people would increase from 2,700 in 2012 to 3,700 in 2026.

Assuming Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth increases by 0.2 years per year for males and 0.15 years per year for females (Series I), the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 921,900 people in 2026, 3,000 (0.3%) people less than in Series B. Under this assumption there would be 4,100 deaths of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in 2026, 390 (11%) more than in Series B.

Assuming Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth increases by 0.5 years per year for males and 0.45 years per year for females (Series H), the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 930,400 people in 2026, 5,500 (0.6%) people more than in Series B. Under this assumption there would be 3,000 deaths of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in 2026, 690 (19%) fewer than in Series B.


Interstate migration

In 2011, only one assumption was analysed for interstate migration. The future net interstate migration of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people was set at constant levels as observed in the 2011 Census.

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