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COMMENTARY ON KEY INDICATORS

Estimated Resident Population (ERP)

• The preliminary ERP of ACT at 31 March 2009 was 349,948 persons, an increase of 6,036 persons (1.8%) since 31 March 2008.
• Of this increase, natural increase accounted for 3,094 persons (51.3%), net overseas migration for 3,253 persons (54.0%) and net interstate migration for -311 persons (-5.2%).
• Natural increase comprised 4,793 births and 1,699 deaths, net overseas migration comprised 8,009 arrivals and 4,756 departures, and net interstate migration comprised 18,719 arrivals and 19,030 departures.

• In the June quarter 2009, accommodation takings for ACT hotels, motels and serviced apartments with 15 or more rooms decreased by 7.5% to $48.6 million, compared to the previous quarter.
• The June quarter 2009 room occupancy rate of 67.5% for ACT hotels, motels and serviced apartments with 15 or more rooms was 3.1 percentage points lower than the previous quarter.
• For ACT hotels, motels and serviced apartments with 15 or more rooms, the average takings per room night occupied in the June quarter 2009 was $156 ($163 in the previous quarter).

• The All Groups CPI for Canberra rose 0.9% in the September quarter 2009, compared to a rise of 0.6% in the previous quarter.
• Over the year to the September quarter 2009, the All Groups CPI for Canberra rose 1.4%, compared to an annual rise of 2.1% to the June quarter 2009.
• The most significant price rises for Canberra in the September quarter were for women's footwear (9.0%), electricity (7.1%), water and sewerage (6.7%), Gas and other household fuels (6.6%), men's underwear, nightwear and socks (6.2%) and urban transport fares (5.9%). The most significant offsetting price falls were for towels and linen (-11.6%), tea, coffee and food drinks (-6.4%) and optical services (-5.3%).

• State final demand for the ACT declined 0.4% (trend terms) from March quarter 2009 to June quarter 2009 - this was the third quarterly decline in a row. This decline was largely as a result of a fall of 4.3% in public gross fixed capital formation.
• Over the year to the June quarter 2009, state final demand for the ACT declined by 1.4% (trend terms), mainly due to a fall of 22.1% ($133m) in public gross fixed capital formation.

• The trend estimate of employment in ACT increased by 100 to 193,400 persons from August 2009 to September 2009. Full-time employment decreased slightly by 100 to 145,300 persons and part-time employment increased by 200 to 48,100 persons.
• From September 2008 to September 2009, the trend estimate of employment for ACT decreased by 3,100 with full-time employment decreasing by 2,000 and part-time employment declining by 1,100.
• The trend estimate of unemployment in ACT decreased by 100 to 7,100 persons from August 2009 to September 2009, and by 1,600 persons from September 2008 to September 2009.
• The trend unemployment rate for ACT decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5% from August to September 2009 and increased by 0.8 percentage points from September 2008 to September 2009. From August to September 2009, the male unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, the female unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.8%.
• The trend participation rate for the ACT decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 71.7% from August to September 2009. Both male (76.2%) and female (67.5%) participation rates remained steady.

• In seasonally adjusted terms, total retail turnover in the ACT increased by 0.7% from July 2009 ($370m) to August 2009 ($372.6m). Nationally, there was an increase of 0.9%.
• Food retailing (2.9%) and Cafes,restaurants and takeaway food services (3.7%) recorded increases in August 2009, Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (3.2%), Department stores (1.9%), Household goods retailing (0.6%) and other retailing (3.1%) all recording declines.

• The trend estimate for the number of dwelling units approved in the ACT was 256 dwellings in August 2009, a decrease of 3.5% from the previous month.
• Over the year to August 2009, there were 2,721 dwelling units approved in the ACT, an increase of 15.2% over that for the year to August 2008 (2,363).

• In trend terms, the value of owner occupied housing finance commitments (excluding alterations and additions) in the ACT decreased by 2.4% from July 2009 ($287m) to August 2009 ($280m).
• The number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance in the ACT decreased by 2.0% from July 2009 (1,111) to August 2009 (1,089), in trend terms.
• In trend terms over the year to August 2009, there were 12,367 owner occupied housing finance commitments in the ACT, an increase of 23.6% over that for the year to August 2008 (10,004).
• In original terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance in the ACT for August 2009 was 1,079. Of this, 10.9% related to construction of dwellings, 6.7% to purchase of new dwellings and 82.2% to purchase of established dwellings (including refinancing).

• Preliminary estimates show the price index for established houses in Canberra increased by 3.6% in the June quarter 2009; however over the year to June 2009, the Canberra established house price index decreased by 0.2%.
• The Canberra project home price index increased by 1.2% in the June quarter 2009 and 5.0% over the year to June quarter 2009.