STATES AND TERRITORIES
All three series project continuing population growth for all states and territories between 2011 and 2026 (table 3.5).
The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of the Australian Capital Territory is projected to be the fastest growing of the states and territories, with an average growth rate of between 2.8% and 3.1% per year, followed by Victoria (between 2.5% and 2.8%), Queensland (between 2.3% and 2.6%) and Tasmania (between 2.2% and 2.4%). These high rates of population growth are in part due to the age structure of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in these states and territories, with relatively large cohorts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people moving into peak child-bearing ages throughout the projection period. The assumption of increasing paternity rates also contributes to population growth, as does assumed net interstate migration in some cases, notably for Queensland (a gain of 297 people per year) and Victoria (a gain of 220 people per year).
The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of New South Wales is projected to grow at a lower rate, of around 1.9% to 2.2% per year on average. While high levels of natural increase are projected due to the age structure of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population, the net migration assumption of a loss of 503 people per year for New South Wales has the effect of reducing the rate of population growth.
The Northern Territory is projected to have the lowest average growth rate over the projection period, of between 1.4% and 1.6% per year. This is in part due to the age structure of the Northern Territory population which, unlike many of the other states and territories, is relatively stable. The absolute size of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in child-bearing age groups (15-49 years) therefore increases relatively consistently throughout the projection period. As a result, projected numbers of births in the Northern Territory do not increase as rapidly as in the other states and territories, and therefore population growth is slower. In addition, the projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in the Northern Territory is largely unaffected by an increasing paternity assumption, as less than 9% of births of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children in the Northern Territory are born to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fathers and non-Indigenous mothers compared with, for example, 28% in Queensland in 2012.
Similar to the Northern Territory, projected average annual growth rates for Western Australia (between 1.9% and 2.2%) and South Australia (between 2.0% and 2.3%) are lower than those for the Australian Capital Territory, Victoria and Queensland. This is due in part to the relatively stable age structures of their Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations. Assumed net interstate migration for Western Australia (a gain of 71 people per year) and South Australia (a gain of 55 people per year) has a small positive effect on the rate of population growth over the projection period.
Components of population change for Australia and each state and territory are presented in detail in data cubes attached to this release on the ABS web site.
3.5 ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER POPULATION, States and territories - 2001-2026 |
|
 | 2001 | 2011 | 2026 (SERIES A) | 2026 (SERIES B) | 2026 (SERIES C) |
| no. | no. | no. | Growth rate (%)(a) | no. | Growth rate (%)(a) | no. | Growth rate (%)(a) |
|
| NSW | 170 827 | 208 476 | 289 808 | 2.2 | 282 962 | 2.1 | 277 233 | 1.9 |
| Vic. | 35 816 | 47 333 | 71 379 | 2.8 | 69 637 | 2.6 | 68 198 | 2.5 |
| Qld | 143 545 | 188 954 | 278 019 | 2.6 | 271 860 | 2.5 | 266 755 | 2.3 |
| SA | 29 068 | 37 408 | 52 321 | 2.3 | 51 233 | 2.1 | 50 312 | 2.0 |
| WA | 71 994 | 88 270 | 121 836 | 2.2 | 119 431 | 2.0 | 117 440 | 1.9 |
| Tas. | 19 292 | 24 165 | 34 724 | 2.4 | 33 965 | 2.3 | 33 305 | 2.2 |
| NT | 59 702 | 68 850 | 87 486 | 1.6 | 86 060 | 1.5 | 84 922 | 1.4 |
| ACT | 4 256 | 6 160 | 9 674 | 3.1 | 9 463 | 2.9 | 9 286 | 2.8 |
| Aust.(b) | 534 718 | 669 881 | 945 594 | 2.3 | 924 953 | 2.2 | 907 789 | 2.0 |
|
| (a) Average annual growth rate for the period 2011 to 2026. |
| (b) Includes Other Territories. |
Changing state/territory share
New South Wales is projected to continue to have the largest Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population with its share remaining stable at 31% in both 2011 and 2026. Queensland's share of Australia's Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population is projected to increase from 28% in 2011 to 29% in 2026 and Victoria's share is projected to increase from 7.1% in 2011 to 7.5% in 2026.
Northern Territory's share is projected to decline, from 10.3% to between 9.3% and 9.4%. The distribution amongst the remaining states and territories is projected to remain largely unchanged.
3.6 PROJECTED DISTRIBUTION OF ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER POPULATION, States and territories - At 30 June |
|
| 2011 | 2026 (SERIES A) | 2026 (SERIES B) | 2026 (SERIES C) |
| % | % | % | % |
|
| NSW | 31.1 | 30.6 | 30.6 | 30.5 |
| Vic. | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Qld | 28.2 | 29.4 | 29.4 | 29.4 |
| SA | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| WA | 13.2 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 |
| Tas. | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| NT | 10.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.4 |
| ACT | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Aust.(a) | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
|
| (a) Includes Other Territories |
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