CHANGES IN EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT

INTRODUCTION

This chapter focuses on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people who have a Year 12 (or equivalent) or non-school qualification. Analysis of Year 12 or equivalent attainment is presented by age and Remoteness Area, and analysis of non-school qualification attainment is presented by level of qualification and age. When there is a large increase in Census counts for a population it is useful to understand how the increase may have impacted on characteristics such as educational attainment.


SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

• Between 2006 and 2011, there were increases of around five percentage points each in the attainment rate for Year 12 or equivalent qualifications (20% in 2006 to 25% in 2011) and for non-school qualifications (25% in 2006 to 31% in 2011) among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over.
• Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over living in major cities accounted for nearly half (12,900) of the national increase in the count of people with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification between 2006 and 2011. More than one-quarter (7,800) of the national increase came from Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25-64 years in 2011, most notably those aged 30-44 years (4,500).
• The largest proportional increase in non-school qualification attainment between 2006 and 2011 by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25 years and over in 2011 was at the Certificate level, where more than twice as many people (3,400 in 2006 compared with 7,000 in 2011) reported having a Certificate IV in 2011 compared with 2006.
• Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 30-44 years in 2011 accounted for almost half (9,400) of the national increase between 2006 and 2011 in the count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25 years and over who reported having a non-school qualification between 2006 and 2011.

YEAR 12 OR EQUIVALENT ATTAINMENT

According to the 2011 Census, there were 81,600 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification, an increase of 52% (28,100) from the 2006 Census. The proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over reporting a Year 12 or equivalent qualification increased from 20% in 2006 to 25% in 2011. In comparison, the proportion of non-Indigenous people aged 15 years and over who reported a Year 12 or equivalent qualification rose from 45% in 2006 to 52% in 2011.

Note that people aged 15 years and over who reported they were still in secondary school in 2011 are excluded from the following analysis as they are not expected to have completed a Year 12 or equivalent qualification.

In this section, comparisons of Year 12 or equivalent attainment between the 2006 and 2011 Censuses exclude people who did not report whether they have or do not have a Year 12 or equivalent qualification. People whose Year 12 or equivalent attainment status was not stated comprised 11% of the total Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population aged 15 years and over in 2011, down from 12% in 2006. Caution should be used when drawing conclusions for populations with high proportions of not stated responses, such as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over in 2011 living in remote areas, where the unknown Year 12 or equivalent attainment status was 16% in 2011. High proportions of not stated responses limit the reliability of known responses in those populations as it is unclear how people whose Year 12 attainment status has not been stated may affect changes in educational outcomes.

		Known Year 12 or equivalent attainment status(c)		Year 12 or equivalent attainment status not stated		Total
		no.	%	no.	%	no.
2006
Remoteness Area(d)
	Major Cities	76 475	89.1	9 347	10.9	85 822
	Inner Regional	48 636	87.8	6 761	12.2	55 397
	Outer Regional	48 155	85.5	8 184	14.5	56 339
	Remote	20 079	84.3	3 747	15.7	23 826
	Very Remote	38 518	89.1	4 701	10.9	43 219
	Total	232 867	87.6	32 953	12.4	265 820
Sex
	Male	123 617	89.5	14 512	10.5	138 129
	Female	109 250	85.6	18 441	14.4	127 691
Total		232 867	87.6	32 953	12.4	265 820
2011
Remoteness Area(d)
	Major Cities	102 153	90.9	10 237	9.1	112 390
	Inner Regional	61 189	88.9	7 610	11.1	68 799
	Outer Regional	60 531	87.6	8 535	12.4	69 066
	Remote	21 639	86.4	3 401	13.6	25 040
	Very Remote	44 256	90.9	4 450	9.1	48 706
	Total	291 145	89.2	35 185	10.8	326 330
Sex
	Male	137 032	87.2	20 189	12.8	157 221
	Female	154 113	91.1	14 996	8.9	169 109
Total		291 145	89.2	35 185	10.8	326 330
(a) Usual residence Census counts. Excludes overseas visitors. Includes Other Territories. (b) Excludes Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over who were still in secondary school. (c) Includes people who reported they did not have a Year 12 qualification. (d) Remoteness Areas are described in the Statistical Geography Fact Sheet: Remoteness Structure

Ideally, comparisons between 2006 and 2011 Year 12 or equivalent attainment outcomes should be measuring change in outcomes for the same population over time. However, the ability to accurately measure this change can potentially be masked by the unexpectedly large increase in the count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over recorded in the 2011 Census (24% or 67,400). If the people who contributed to this increase have different educational characteristics to those people who identified as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in 2006, then this may be driving the changes observed rather than real changes in Year 12 outcomes between 2006 and 2011.


Year 12 or equivalent attainment by remoteness

Between 2006 and 2011, the proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over who had attained a Year 12 or equivalent qualification increased by between four and five percentage points in each Remoteness Area.




While all Remoteness Areas recorded similar percentage point increases between 2006 and 2011, the relative increase in counts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification revealed more variation across Remoteness Areas. The largest relative increase in the count of people with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification occurred among those living in very remote areas (61% or 3,000), while the smallest gain was in remote areas (38% or 1,200).

While all Remoteness Areas recorded a similar percentage point increase in the proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification between 2006 and 2011, an examination of the count of people with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification reveals more variation across Remoteness Areas. The largest proportional increase in the count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification occurred among people living in very remote areas (61% or 3,000), while the smallest gain was in remote areas (38% or 1,200).

	2006	2011	Relative change		Proportion of total change
	no.	no.	no.	%	%
Major Cities	23 556	36 419	12 863	54.6	45.8
Inner Regional	10 954	16 551	5 597	51.1	19.9
Outer Regional	10 572	15 871	5 299	50.1	18.9
Remote	3 284	4 526	1 242	37.8	4.4
Very Remote	4 922	7 928	3 006	61.1	10.7
Total	53 488	81 557	28 069	52.5	100.0
(a) Excludes Year 12 or equivalent attainment not stated. (b) Usual residence Census counts. Excludes overseas visitors. Includes Other Territories. (c) Excludes Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over who were still in secondary school.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people living in major cities accounted for the greatest proportion (46% or 12,900) of the national increase (28,100) in the count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification between 2006 and 2011, followed by those living in inner regional areas (20% or 5,600) and outer regional areas (19% or 5,300).



Year 12 or equivalent attainment by age and remoteness

Changes in Year 12 or equivalent attainment rates can be quite different for people born in different years. This section looks at the changes in the Year 12 or equivalent attainment rates using age cohorts to assess whether the changes that occurred in each age group were in line with expectations. An age cohort is a group of people with the same birth year within a defined period (for example, people aged 30-34 years in 2011 were aged 25-29 years in 2006). Changes in age cohorts for the total Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population are discussed in more detail in the chapter Changes in Age and Sex Structure.

When comparing age cohorts between the 2006 and 2011 Censuses, it is expected that there will be a high increase in Year 12 or equivalent attainment for people aged 15-24 years in 2011 (that is, those aged 10-19 years in 2006) as this is the age when the majority of people complete their secondary schooling. Small changes in Year 12 or equivalent attainment are expected for people aged 25-64 years in 2011, while very few people aged 65 years and over in 2011 are expected to achieve a Year 12 or equivalent qualification during this period.

In general, the contributions made by each of these three age groups to the total increase in the count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification reflected those expectations. (It should be noted that changes in age cohorts for Year 12 or equivalent attainment have not been adjusted to account for the potential impact of mortality and/or variability of the undercount and mobility between Remoteness Areas.) Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15-24 years in 2011 accounted for almost three-quarters (72% or 20,300) of the increase in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification. Almost all of the remainder of the increase (28% or 7,800) was contributed by those aged 25-64 years in 2011, most notably those aged 30-44 years.



Across the Remoteness Areas, there was generally a similar pattern in the distribution of the increase in the count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification between the younger and older age cohorts. People aged 15-24 years in 2011 accounted for the majority of the increase in all Remoteness Areas. Their contribution was greatest in remote areas, where they made up 82% (1,000) of the extra 1,200 people with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification since 2006. The contribution made by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15-24 years in 2011 towards the extra 3,000 people in very remote areas was relatively smaller compared with the other Remoteness Areas (64% or 1,900).



While in all Remoteness Areas the two youngest age cohorts dominated the increase in the count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people who had completed a Year 12 or equivalent qualification, a closer examination of the individual contributions of each five-year age cohort from 25-29 years and over revealed some differences by Remoteness Area.

Major cities

In major cities, there were 12,900 more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification in 2011 compared with 2006. The highest contribution to this increase after that made by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15-24 years in 2011 (73% or 9,400) came from those aged 35-39 years in 2011 (6% or 750), followed by those aged 30-34 years (5% or 630) and 25-29 years (5% or 600). Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 40-44 years in 2011 made up a further 4% (550) of the increase in major cities.




Inner and outer regional areas

The age cohort patterns in inner and outer regional areas was similar to major cities for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification.

There were 5,600 more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification in inner regional areas in 2011 compared with 2006. As in major cities, the highest contribution to this increase after that made by those aged 15-24 years in 2011 (73% or 4,100) came from those aged 35-39 years in 2011 (7% or 410).

In outer regional areas, there were 5,300 more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification in 2011 than in 2006. As in major cities and inner regional areas, the highest contribution to this increase after that made by those aged 15-24 years in 2011 (73% or 3,900) came from those aged 35-39 years in 2011 (6% or 330).



Remote and very remote areas

There were some differences in the distribution of the increase in counts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people who had attained Year 12 or an equivalent qualification in remote and very remote areas.

In 2011 there were 1,200 more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification in remote areas compared with 2006. After those aged 15-24 years in 2011, who contributed 82% (1,000) to this increase, the next highest contributors to the increase were Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 40-44 years in 2011 (7% or 90).

In very remote areas, there were 3,000 more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification in 2011 than in 2006. Unlike remote areas, the highest contribution to this increase after that made by those aged 15-24 years in 2011 (64% or 1,900) was from Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25-29 years (9% or 270), followed by those aged 30-34 years in 2011 (6% or 190). Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 40-44 years living in very remote areas contributed a similar proportion of the increase to that recorded for remote areas at 6% (170 in very remote areas and 90 in remote areas).



NON-SCHOOL QUALIFICATIONS

As non-school qualifications are usually completed at an older age than secondary schooling, this section focuses on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25 years and over in 2011. Only a person's highest level of non-school qualification is collected in the Census. People whose level of qualification was not stated or inadequately described were included in the total calculations only.

Nationally, there were 108,100 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25 years and over who reported having a non-school qualification in 2011, an increase of 37% (29,200) compared with 2006. This increase resulted in the proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25 years and over reporting a non-school qualification rising from 25% in 2006 to 31% in 2011.

In this section, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25 years and over whose non-school qualification attainment status was unknown were excluded from comparisons between 2006 and 2011. In 2011, people whose non-school qualification status was not stated comprised 13% of the total population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25 years and over, down from 15% in 2006. As with Year 12 or equivalent attainment, caution should be used when drawing conclusions for populations which have high proportions of not stated responses.

		Known non-school qualification attainment status(c)		Non-school qualification attainment status not stated(d)		Total
		no.	%	no.	%	no.
2006
Remoteness Area
	Major Cities	54 654	86.2	8 754	13.8	63 408
	Inner Regional	34 787	84.9	6 179	15.1	40 966
	Outer Regional	35 689	83.0	7 295	17.0	42 984
	Remote	14 719	81.8	3 266	18.2	17 985
	Very Remote	14 719	86.9	4 153	13.1	31 642
	Total	168 056	84.9	29 838	15.1	197 894
Sex
	Male	77 476	83.2	15 665	16.8	93 141
	Female	90 580	86.5	14 173	13.5	104 753
Total		168 056	84.9	29 838	15.1	197 894
2011
Remoteness Area
	Major Cities	74 285	89.1	9 116	10.9	83 401
	Inner Regional	44 867	86.9	6 764	13.1	51 631
	Outer Regional	45 342	85.6	7 632	14.4	52 974
	Remote	16 197	83.7	3 163	16.3	19 360
	Very Remote	32 029	87.9	4 418	12.1	36 447
	Total	213 721	87.0	31 905	13.0	245 626
Sex
	Male	98 692	85.0	17 354	15.0	116 046
	Female	115 029	88.8	14 551	11.2	129 580
Total		213 721	87.0	31 905	13.0	245 626
(a) Usual residence Census counts. Excludes overseas visitors. Includes Other Territories. (b) Includes all known categories of responses including not applicable responses. (c) Includes people whose non-school qualification attainment status was not stated. Also includes people whose level of non-school qualification was not stated.

Non-school qualification by level of highest qualification

There were substantial increases in the counts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25 years and over with a non-school qualification across all levels of non-school qualification between 2006 and 2011. The largest proportional increase was at the Certificate level, where more than twice as many people reported having a Certificate IV in 2011 compared with 2006 (7,000 compared with 3,400). The lowest proportional increase was at the Bachelor degree level, with a 50% (3,800) increase in the count of people with a Bachelor degree as their highest non-school qualification.

	2006	2011	Change		Proportion of total change
	no.	no.	no.	%	%
Postgraduate/Graduate(c)	2 293	3 757	1 464	63.8	5.0
Bachelor degree	7 473	11 232	3 759	50.3	12.9
Advanced Diploma/Diploma	8 028	12 426	4 398	54.8	15.0
Certificate IV	3 365	6 981	3 616	107.5	12.4
Certificate III	18 949	29 583	10 634	56.1	36.4
Certificate I or II	3 428	5 491	2 063	60.2	7.1
Total(d)	78 876	108 119	29 243	37.1	100.0
(a) Usual residence Census counts. Excludes overseas visitors. Includes Other Territories. (b) People whose non-school qualification attainment status was not stated are included in total population only
(c) Includes Postgraduate degrees and Graduate Diploma/Certificate. (d) Includes level of qualification not stated or inadequately described, and all Certificates, not further defined,

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25 years and over who reported having a Certificate III were the biggest contributors (36% or 10,600) to the 29,200 increase in people with a non-school qualification in 2011. This was followed by people with an Advanced Diploma or Diploma (15% or 4,400), a Bachelor degree (13% or 3,800) and a Certificate IV (12% or 3,600).

There was very little change in the distribution of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people holding a non-school qualification by level of qualification. The greatest change was at the Certificate level, with a three percentage point increase in the proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people reporting a Certificate III level qualification between 2006 and 2011 (to 27%), followed by a two percentage point increase for Certificate IV level (to 6%).




Non-school qualifications by age

This section looks at the changes between the 2006 and 2011 Census focusing on those Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people where the level of non-school qualification is known. Changes to a highest non-school qualification can be quite different for people born in different years, and this analysis uses age cohorts to assess whether the changes that occurred in each age group were in line with expectations. An age cohort is a group of people with the same birth year within a defined period (for example, people aged 30-34 years in 2011 were aged 25-29 years in 2006). Changes in age cohorts for the total Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population are discussed in more detail in the chapter Changes in Age and Sex Structure.

When comparing age cohorts between the 2006 and 2011 Censuses, it is expected that there will be an increase in the count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25-29 years in 2011 (that is, those aged 20-24 years in 2006) with a non-school qualification due to relatively high levels of participation in tertiary and vocational programs for this age group. Smaller changes are expected in older age groups as the level of participation in these programs generally declines with age.

In 2011, there were 73,500 people aged 25 years and over with a known level of non-school qualification, compared with 54,300 people aged 20 years and over with a known qualification in 2006. This represents an increase of 19,300 more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with a known level of non-school qualification in 2011 when compared with the same group of people in 2006 (that is, those aged 20 years and over in 2006).

People aged 25-29 years in 2011 accounted for one-quarter (25%) of the 19,300 more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25 years and over who reported having a non-school qualification between 2006 and 2011. People aged 30-44 years in 2011 accounted for a further 49% of the increase, while smaller increases were observed for all remaining five-year age groups up to and including 60-64 years. While participation in non-school education can occur at any stage of life, the increase in the count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 30 years and over with non-school qualifications is higher than can be explained when considering the expected mortality rates for these age groups and rates of mature-age education. (It should be noted that the change in each age group has not been adjusted to account for any changes that might be expected due to mortality and/or variability of the undercount and mobility.)

Non-school qualifications by level of highest qualification

The increase in counts of people who reported a non-school qualification varied by level of qualification. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25 years and over who reported having Certificate III as their highest qualification in 2011 accounted for over one-third (35%) of the 19,300 increase in counts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with a non-school qualification between 2006 and 2011. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with Advanced Diploma and Diploma qualifications made up a further 20% of the increase, while those with Bachelor degrees accounted for 16% of the increase, and those with Graduate or Postgraduate qualifications contributed a further 7%.


Postgraduate degree or Graduate Diploma/Graduate Certificate

In 2011, 1,400 more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25 years and over reported having a Postgraduate degree or Graduate Diploma/Certificate than in 2006. Among those aged 25-64 years in 2011, there were similarly high rates of increase in the counts of people with a Postgraduate degree or Graduate Diploma/Certificate for each age group up to 50 years. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25-29 years accounted for 17% of the increase, similar to the proportions contributed by those aged 30-34 years (15%) and 35-39 years (18%). Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 50-64 years accounted for a further 19% of the increase.

Bachelor degree

Around 3,100 more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25 years and over reported having a Bachelor degree in 2011 than in 2006. Among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25-64 years in 2011, one-third (33%) of the increase in the count of people who reported having a Bachelor degree was from those aged 25-29 years. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 30-34 years, 35-39 years and 40-44 years also showed high rates of increase and together accounted for 43% of the increase among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25-64 years. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 45-54 years accounted for a further 17% of the increase.



Advanced Diploma or Diploma

There was an increase of 3,800 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25 years and over who reported they had an Advanced Diploma or Diploma qualification from 2006 to 2011. Among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25-64 years in 2011, those aged 35-39 years accounted for 20% of the total increase in the count of people with an Advanced Diploma or Diploma qualification, followed by those aged 25-29 years and 40-44 years (both 18%).



Certificate IV

Around 3,200 more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25 years and over reported having a Certificate IV qualification in 2011 than in 2006. Among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25-64 years in 2011, those aged 25-29 years accounted for 21% of the total increase in the count of people with a Certificate IV qualification, closely followed by those aged 30-34 years and 35-39 years (both 18%). While the size of the increase declined with age, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 40-49 years accounted for a further 28% of the increase.




Certificate III

There was an increase of 6,700 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25 years and over who reported having a Certificate III qualification between 2006 and 2011. Among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25-64 years in 2011, 29% of the total increase in the count of people with a Certificate III qualification was from those aged 25-29 years. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 30-39 years accounted for about one-third (34%) of the increase, while 24% of the increase was from those aged 40-49 years.



Certificate I or II

Around 700 more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25 years and over reported having a Certificate I or II qualification in 2011 than in 2006. Among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25-64 years in 2011, the highest proportion of the total increase in the count of people with a Certificate I or II qualification was among those aged 40-44 years (30%). Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25-29 years accounted for a much lower proportion of the total increase (13%), similar to the proportion contributed by those aged 45-49 years (10%).



CONCLUDING REMARKS

People with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification have a greater likelihood of continuing with further study as well as entering into the workforce. This chapter shows there was an overall increase in secondary and non-school educational attainment among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15 years and over between 2006 and 2011. The increase in Year 12 or higher qualifications among older age cohorts supports the premise that the increased propensity to identify as being of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin between 2006 and 2011 has impacted on educational outcomes for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population.