1006.0 - Forward Work Program, 2015-16 to 2018-19  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/09/2015   
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DEMOGRAPHY

OBJECTIVES

The key objective of the Demography program is to produce estimates of the recent and projected population and analysis of the components of population change (births, deaths, and migration) and related demographic trends. These data are provided at the national, state, territory and regional level, as well as for the Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population.

These statistics are produced to:

  • meet a range of legislative requirements that make reference to population estimates
  • assist in the formulation and monitoring of government policies, and in the planning and administration of government programs
  • enable planning and market analyses by businesses and community organisations
  • enable research and analyses by governments, businesses, academic institutions and others into the causes and consequences of population change.

Reflecting the use of population estimates for electoral and funding purposes, the main clients of the program are: Australian and state/territory-level electoral commissions, treasuries, and grants commissions. Within the ABS, demographic estimates and projections are the basis for population survey benchmarks. Other clients include agencies concerned with issues associated with migration and multicultural affairs, local area planning, health, education, the Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, family and community services, the environment and international tourism. The program also works to build capacity of government agencies to understand and use demographic data and statistics, and supports the development of civil registration systems in Asia and the Pacific region.

OUTPUTS

The program's key outputs are population estimates published in Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0). The program produces estimates of the total population by age, sex, country of birth and geographical distribution; estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population; and estimates of families and households.

Regular statistics are also produced on births, fertility rates, marriages and divorces, deaths, mortality rates, life expectancy, international migration as well as interstate and internal migration. Projections of population, families and households according to specified demographic assumptions are published on a regular basis. Population benchmarks are provided for use in the ABS and other population surveys. Regular statistics based on the movements of overseas arrivals and departures are also produced.

Major publications include:
DEVELOPMENTS

The main medium-term developments in the program are to:
  • develop 2016 Post Enumeration Survey and undertake scenario testing and planning for population rebasing in the lead-up to the Census - by August 2016
  • integrate Norfolk Island into Australia's official demographic statistics, including Estimated Resident Population - by August 2016
  • explore the feasibility of producing annual Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates using direct demographic methods and other techniques - ongoing
  • explore new methods for producing net overseas migration and overseas arrivals and departures statistics which are less reliant on data collected on physical passenger cards, in line with plans to reform border operations and future traveller systems and processes - ongoing
  • improve harmonisation of births and deaths data, enhance coordination between data providers, and improve connections with data users through the National Civil Registration and Statistics Improvement Committee - ongoing.

PROGRAM MANAGER

AJ Lanyon
Population Branch

RESOURCES

Program costs
$m
2015-16
3.5
2016-17
2.8
2017-18
2.9