APPENDIX 3 QUARTERLY MEASURES OF TOTAL RETAIL TURNOVER PER CAPITA
INTRODUCTION
1 In response to recent interest, this issue includes new quarterly measures of total retail turnover per capita for the September quarter 1983 and onwards. The full time series is available from the Downloads tab of this publication on the ABS website (table 19 and table 20).
2 Current price estimates and chain volume measures are presented in original, seasonally adjusted and trend terms.
3 This release presents total retail turnover per capita only, with a view to publishing retail turnover per capita by state in the future.
ASSOCIATED METHODOLOGY
4 The derivation of retail turnover per capita aligns with the derivation of GDP per capita in the Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product (Cat. no 5206.0) and Australian System of National Accounts (Cat. no 5204.0).
5 The estimates of retail turnover per capita are compiled from the monthly Retail Business Survey and the quarterly Estimated Resident Population (ERP) published within Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat. no. 3101.0). Retail turnover per capita estimates are the ratios of total quarterly retail turnover to the quarterly ERP as published in the Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat. no. 3101.0) or ABS projections based on current trend where not yet available.
6 Quarterly ERP estimates currently lag quarterly retail trade estimates by approximately six months. The latest available ERP estimates are for the December quarter 2013 as published on 19 June 2014. For this issue, ABS ERP projections based on current trend have been derived for March quarter 2014 and June quarter 2014. ERP projections used are consistent with those used for the derivation of GDP per capita.
7 The scope, coverage and methodology for the Retail Business Survey are provided in the explanatory notes of this publication. Similarly, information relating to the ERP estimates are provided within the explanatory notes of Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat. no. 3101.0). Of specific note is that Retail Trade measures retail sales by Australian resident businesses to both Australian residents and people from overseas. The ERP is a broad measure of Australian residents, including both adults and children, not all of whom may be considered active consumers, and some of their expenditure would be made overseas.
REVISIONS
8 Revisions to the retail turnover per capita series will occur with every future revision of quarterly ERP estimates and also following any revisions to Retail Trade estimates as detailed in the explanatory notes of this publication.
KEY STATISTICS
A6 TOTAL RETAIL TURNOVER PER CAPITA, Australia |
|
 | | Current Price | Chain Volume Measure |
| Quarter | $ per capita | $ per capita |
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED |
|
| 2012 | | |
| June | 2 834.8 | 2 840.2 |
| September | 2 839.3 | 2 820.0 |
| December | 2 825.0 | 2 807.5 |
| 2013 | | |
| March | 2 852.6 | 2 843.5 |
| June | 2 847.2 | 2 829.4 |
| September | 2 864.2 | 2 837.4 |
| December | 2 911.8 | 2 859.2 |
| 2014 | | |
| March | 2 963.6 | 2 887.3 |
| June | 2 954.2 | 2 871.2 |
|
A7 TOTAL RETAIL TURNOVER PER CAPITA, Australia - Percentage change from previous quarter |
|
| | Current Price | Chain Volume Measure |
| Quarter | % | % |
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED |
|
| 2012 | | |
| June | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| September | 0.2 | -0.7 |
| December | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| 2013 | | |
| March | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| June | -0.2 | -0.5 |
| September | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| December | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 2014 | | |
| March | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| June | -0.3 | -0.6 |
|
Total retail turnover per capita, seasonally adjusted, September Qtr 1983 - June Qtr 2014
KEY NOTES
9 The compilation of estimates for retail turnover per capita aim to provide an indication of spending by Australian residents on goods and services to all employing Australian retail trade businesses.
10 In current prices, the seasonally adjusted estimate for retail turnover per capita fell 0.3% in the June quarter 2014 to $2954. This fall follows three quarters of consecutive growth.
11 In volume terms, the seasonally adjusted estimate for retail turnover per capita fell 0.6% in the June quarter 2014 to $2871. This fall follows three quarters of consecutive growth.
12 The graph provided within the Key Statistics presents the full seasonally adjusted time series for retail turnover per capita in both current price and chain volume measure terms. Since September quarter 1983, a steady increase can be seen in both time series until approximately 2008. Since 2008, growth in the chain volume measure for total retail sales per capita has eased.
INTERPRETATION OF TOTAL RETAIL TURNOVER PER CAPITA ESTIMATES
13 In interpreting the retail turnover per capita series, reference could be made to other ABS releases such as the Spotlight on National Accounts, Quarterly Household Balance Sheet, November 2013 (cat. no. 5202.0). This release discusses household wealth and its impact on consumption and saving during and after the Global Financial Crisis. Sharp declines in household wealth were observed which coincided with changes in household consumption and saving behaviour.
14 Household wealth is explained annually via publication of a complete Household Balance sheet and an associated Analytical Measures of Household Income, Consumption, Saving and Wealth table in Australian System of National Accounts (cat. no. 5204.0).
15 Coverage of Household Final Consumption Expenditure has also been discussed in a feature article released under Retail Trade, Australia (cat no. 8501.0). This article highlights the contribution that estimates of retail turnover presented in Retail Trade, Australia (cat. no. 8501.0) provide to Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE) in the Australian System of National Accounts (ASNA). Coverage of HFCE provided by Retail Trade estimates has fallen over time as household expenditure patterns have gradually shifted from goods to services.
16 Consideration should also be given to chain volume estimates in some retail sectors potentially being impacted by a fall in quality and/or composition, and not simply a fall in quantity.
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