Estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and non-Indigenous Population
Preliminary Estimates
ABS will publish preliminary estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and non-Indigenous population as at 30 June 2011 in Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) from the March quarter 2012 issue, released on 27 September 2012.
Estimates will be published by five year age groups, sex and state/territory. No further disaggregation will be released until final estimates are compiled and released in August 2013.
While there will be some changes between the preliminary and final estimates, it is anticipated that these differences will be small as they will comprise mostly of estimates for Residents Temporarily Overseas (RTOs) on Census night, and demographic backdating to 30 June 2011. It should be noted that the passenger cards used to obtain information on those overseas do not ask for Indigenous status. Due to this, assumptions must be made on the proportion of RTOs who are Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders. ABS will be conducting stakeholder consultations to inform the decision on these assumptions. For more information, please see Information paper: Rebasing Population Estimates, Australia, 2011, Aug 2011 (cat. no. 3101.0.55.001)
ABS had initially planned not to release preliminary estimates of the 2011 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and non-Indigenous populations. This was primarily due to stakeholder feedback that the working life of the preliminary estimates for 30 June 2006 was not being adequately communicated, leading to their continued use after the release of the final estimates. However, following further consultation, it has become clear that preliminary estimates are required. The availability of preliminary estimates will allow for comparison of the population projections based on the 2006 Census and the new preliminary 2011 Census based estimate, both for 30 June 2011. This will enable data users and stakeholders to evaluate the impact of the new 2011 Census-based population estimates on other statistical indicators.
Final Estimates
Final estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population for 30 June 2011 will be published in Population Estimates, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2011 (cat. no. 3238.0.55.001), scheduled for release in August 2013.
The estimates will be made available on a variety of different geographies, including state and territory, Statistical Area 2, Remoteness Area by state/territory, federal electorates and Indigenous Regions. Investigations are continuing regarding other levels of disaggregation possible.
The finalised total population estimates to be released in June 2013 will form the new standard population for the calculation of age-standardised death rates. ABS uses the age distribution of the total persons in the Australian population from a Census year that ends in '1' as the standard population. This standard population changes every ten years. The current standard population used is the estimated resident population of Australia at 30 June 2001 based on the 2001 Census results. This will change to the estimated resident population of Australia at 30 June 2011 based on the 2011 Census. An advantage of choosing a commonly used standard population is that it allows valid comparisons of age-standardised death rates with other population subgroups.
It is likely that the change in standard population may have some impact on the age-standardised death rates, particularly for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. ABS will manage this change by discussion with key stakeholders and users of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander mortality statistics.
ABS is currently working with other organisations, such as the National Health Performance Authority and the Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing, to negotiate the compilation and release of data on other geographical disaggregations, such as Medicare Locals and Local Hospital Network regions. ABS continues to seek feedback from stakeholders regarding any other widely used geographies that should be considered for routine data release. Additional spreadsheets may be subsequently added to the publication.
Separate final estimates of the Torres Strait Islander population for 30 June 2011 will also be available on select geographies and disaggregations.
Based on feedback from Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, data users and other stakeholders, ABS Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australian population estimates will no longer be referred to as "Experimental".
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