3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 26/11/2013   
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NEW SOUTH WALES

Population size

Of the three main series, Series A projects the largest population for New South Wales, increasing from 7.3 million people at 30 June 2012 to 12.6 million in 2061. Series B projects an increase to 11.5 million people, while the smallest population of the three main series is projected in Series C (10.8 million people).


Graph Image for PROJECTED POPULATION, New South Wales

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia


Most of New South Wales' growth is projected to occur in Sydney, where the population is projected to increase from 4.7 million at 30 June 2012 to between 8.0 million (Series C) and 8.9 million (Series A) in 2061.

Population growth for the balance of New South Wales is smaller, increasing from 2.6 million at 30 June 2012 to between 2.9 million (Series C) and 3.7 million (Series A) in 2061.


Graph Image for PROJECTED POPULATION, Sydney

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia

Graph Image for PROJECTED POPULATION, Balance of New South Wales

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia

Age/sex structure

The median age of the population of New South Wales is projected to increase from 37.8 years at 30 June 2012 to between 41.9 years and 45.0 years in 2061. The graph below presents the age structure for New South Wales in 2012 and 2061.


Graph Image for PROJECTED POPULATION, Series B, NSW - At 30 June

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia


Births and Deaths

In 2011-12, there were 98,900 births and 50,500 deaths in New South Wales, resulting in natural increase of 48,400 people. In Series A and B, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths (natural increase), during the projection period. In Series C, deaths will first exceed the number of births in 2056-57 until the end of the projection period.

Alternative scenarios to Series A, B and C

The combination of assumptions in Series 3 results in the largest population for New South Wales in 2061 (14.2 million people). This is due to the comparatively small interstate migration flows (a net –5,000 people per year for New South Wales) assumed in this series. Conversely, Series 52, which assumes comparatively large interstate migration flows (a net –29,000 people per year for New South Wales) projects the smallest population by 2061 (9.4 million people).

Similarly, Series 3 projects the highest population for Sydney (11.0 million people in 2061) and Series 52 projects the smallest population (6.1 million people).