Background
This publication follows on from the preliminary census rebenchmarking to the labour force estimates in October 2017, providing revised labour force estimates based on the census 2016 final Estimated Resident Population (ERP) benchmarks.
The revised estimates provided in this publication cover the July 2011 to October 2018 period.
The ABS will continue with the regular quarterly rebenchmarking, as per the process outlined in the article ‘Rebenchmarking of Labour Force Series’, published in the February 2015 issue of Labour Force, Australia (cat. no. 6202.0).
What is the impact of rebenchmarking on the labour force estimates?
While rebenchmarking results in revisions to published data, it does not generally result in any material change to headline indicators (e.g. unemployment rates, participation rates or employment to population ratios) at the Australia or state and territory levels. Changes to the population benchmarks are more likely to impact on estimates that are directly related to the size of the population (e.g. the number of employed people).
Changes in population composition such as age, sex or region of residence may result in a different rate of change, particularly at finer levels of geography. A summary of the impact of the major rebenchmarking is outlined below.
| Trend Adjusted - Australia | Rebenchmarked (2016 Final ERP Base) | Rebenchmarked (2016 Preliminary ERP Base) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employed ('000) | 12652.9 | 12665.8 | -12.9 |
| Unemployed ('000) | 680.1 | 680.3 | -0.3 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.1 | 5.1 | 0.0 |
| Employment to Population Ratio (%) | 62.2 | 62.3 | 0.0 |
| Participation Rate (%) | 65.6 | 65.6 | 0.0 |
Source: 2016 Preliminary ERP Base - Labour Force, Australia, Oct 2018 (cat. no. 6202.0) Spreadsheet 1.
| Seasonally Adjusted - Australia | Rebenchmarked (2016 Final ERP Base) | Rebenchmarked (2016 Preliminary ERP Base) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employed ('000) | 12658.6 | 12671.5 | -13.0 |
| Unemployed ('000) | 671.0 | 672.1 | -1.0 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
| Employment to Population Ratio (%) | 62.2 | 62.3 | 0.0 |
| Participation Rate (%) | 65.5 | 65.6 | 0.0 |
Source: 2016 Preliminary ERP Base - Labour Force, Australia, Oct 2018 (cat. no. 6202.0) Spreadsheet 1.
- The overall labour market narrative is unchanged as a result of rebenchmarking, with the headline unemployment rate unchanged, and the participation rate and employment to population ratio showing very little change. For example, as at October 2018, the change to the employment to population ratio was 0.1 percentage points at the Australia level.
- As at October 2018, trend employment has been revised down by around 12,900 persons, while the number of unemployed persons was revised down by around 250 persons.
- The impact on state trend employment estimates are also relatively small, with the largest changes in Queensland (down around 5,100) and New South Wales (down around 3,300).