5206.0 - Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, Sep 2006  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 12/12/2006   
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Note: This is an update to the Feature Article released 6/12/2006.


The ABS has recalculated its projections of the impact of the drought on agricultural production in 2006-07 using the forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) Crop Report of 5 December 2006.


In annual terms Farm GDP is projected to fall from $26.3b in 2005-06 to $21.5b in 2006-07, a fall of $4.8b or -18.4%. If this were to actually occur it will make a negative contribution of approximately 0.5% to GDP growth in 2006-07.


The table below presents updated estimates of agricultural production in seasonally adjusted volume terms. It provides published estimates for March, June and September 2006 quarters and projections for the next three quarters. Output is shown to decline more than previously projected for the June quarter 2007 due to revised projections for rice and lupin production. Inputs have not been significantly revised except for the June 2007 quarter which has been revised down due to lower projected marketing costs.


Agricultural production, Volume measures(a): Seasonally adjusted
2005-06
2006-07
Mar
Jun
Sep
Dec(b)
Mar(b)
Jun(b)
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
Outputs
12 034
11 520
10 690
10 165
10 327
9 615
Inputs
5 308
5 140
4 949
4 893
4 899
4 674
Gross farm product at market price
6 726
6 380
5 741
5 272
5 428
4 941
Less net taxes on products
135
129
120
114
116
108
Gross value added at basic prices
6 592
6 251
5 621
5 158
5 312
4 833
Gross domestic product
231 410
232 590
233 280
na
na
na
na not available
(a) Reference year for volume measures is 2004-05.
(b) Projections are based on ABARE forecasts.



The graph below, in seasonally adjusted volume terms, shows the revised projections for the five major categories within agricultural output. It shows that the most significant impact of the current drought will be to cereal crops.

Graph: Farm output, Volume measures—Seasonally adjusted



The estimates of the impact of the drought on agricultural production in 2006-07, based on forecasts made by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) in the Australian Crop and Livestock Report released on 27 October 2006, can be found here.