5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Jun 2006  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 31/08/2006   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effect of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 42 and 43 in the Explanatory Notes.


Buildings and Structures

Graph: What If Buildings

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 6.7%
on this quarter
(2) falls by 6.7%
on this quarter
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%
2005
September
5 949
10.3
5 949
10.3
5 949
10.3
December
6 511
9.5
6 502
9.3
6 540
9.9
2006
March
6 989
7.3
6 984
7.4
6 969
6.6
June
7 262
3.9
7 372
5.6
7 187
3.1


Equipment, Plant and Machinery

Graph: What If Equipment

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4.9%
on this quarter
(2) falls by 4.9%
on this quarter
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%
2005
September
10 675
5.9
10 675
5.9
10 675
5.9
December
11 075
3.7
11 084
3.8
11 149
4.4
2006
March
11 269
1.8
11 273
1.7
11 250
0.9
June
11 399
1.1
11 470
1.7
11 158
-0.8


Total Capital Expenditure

Graph: What If Total

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4.4%
on this quarter
(2) falls by 4.4%
on this quarter
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%
2005
September
16 633
7.5
16 633
7.5
16 633
7.5
December
17 600
5.8
17 600
5.8
17 746
6.7
2006
March
18 278
3.8
18 280
3.9
18 229
2.7
June
18 756
2.6
18 923
3.5
18 220
-0.1