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Introduction

A3.1. Persons arriving in, or departing from Australia provide information in the form of incoming and outgoing passenger cards. (Reproduced copies of the passenger card are provided in Appendix 1 of the ABS publication Overseas Arrivals and Departures (3401.0)). Incoming persons also provide information in visa applications, apart from people travelling as Australian and New Zealand citizens. These and other information (such as passport and visa data) available to the Department of Immigration and Multicultural Affairs serve as a sources for statistics of overseas arrivals and departures. Passenger cards are covered in greater detail in Chapter 4.

A3.2. Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of persons travelling (ie. the multiple movements of individual persons during a given reference period are all counted). However, the statistics exclude the movements of operational air crew and ships' crew, transit passengers who pass through Australia but are not cleared for entry, and passengers on pleasure cruises commencing and finishing in Australia aboard ships. Similarly, ABS statistics exclude those persons not travelling under standard visa conditions, such as 'boat people' and the 1999 intake of Kosovo refugees. These movements are however documented as part of border control processes.


Estimation

A3.3. Overseas arrival and departure statistics are derived from a combination of full enumeration and sampling. All permanent movements and all movements with a duration of stay of one year or more are fully enumerated and processed. On the other hand, statistics relating to movements with a duration of stay of less than one year are compiled from a sample of these movements and are therefore estimates which may differ from the statistics that would have been obtained if details on all these movements had been processed.

A3.4. Since January 1997, variable sample skips have been used in the random selection of records to be sampled. Separate skips are applied for each country of citizenship and the skip may vary for each processing month. Over a year, about 3.5% of all short-term movements are selected for sampling.

A3.5. Net Overseas Migration is calculated as the sum of three separate components:

	NOM	=	PLA - PLD + CJ
	where
	NOM	=	Net Overseas Migration
	PLA	=	Permanent and Long-term Arrivals
	PLD	=	Permanent and Long-term Departures
	CJ	=	Category Jumping

A3.6. Passengers are classified according to their length of stay (in Australia or overseas) or 'category'. This is primarily determined by the passenger's selection of his or her own category on the passenger card, which is accepted provided it is consistent with other information on the card. There are three main categories: Permanent movement, Long-term movement and Short-term movement.

A3.7. Permanent movement comprises

• Arrivals of settlers (ie. persons who hold migrant visas, regardless of stated intended period of stay, and New Zealand citizens who indicate an intention to settle) and those who are otherwise eligible to settle (eg. overseas born children of Australian citizens), and

• Departures of Australian residents (including former settlers) who on departure state that they are departing permanently.

• Arrivals of visitors (with the exception of those who hold migrant visas - see above) and the departures of Australian residents who intend to stay, in Australia or abroad respectively, for twelve months or more, and

• Departures of visitors and the return of Australian residents who had stayed, in Australia or abroad respectively, for twelve months or more.

• Arrivals and departures of travellers whose actual period of stay is less than twelve months, with the exception of those who, on arrival, hold migrant visas.

A3.11. From July 1976 onwards, there has been an adjustment for category jumping in net overseas migration. Prior to December quarter 1989, adjustments for category jumping were made only to revised population estimates.

A3.12. Category jumping is the term used to describe the net effect of changes in travel intentions from short-term to permanent/long-term or vice versa. It arises when the duration of a person's journey differs from that originally indicated (on the arrival/departure card at the beginning of the journey) in such a way as to affect his/her categorisation. For example, an Australian resident departing for a short-term visit overseas (stating that he/she intends to stay abroad for less than twelve months) in fact stays more than twelve months, thereby changing his/her travel category from short-term to long-term.

A3.13. If no adjustments were made for category jumping, a resident who states on the passenger card that he/she is departing on a short-term trip but never returns to Australia would not be subtracted from Australia's population. However, if this resident returned after an absence of more than a year he/she would be added to the population even though he/she had not been subtracted on departure. Similarly, a visitor who arrives on a short-term trip but who never departs would not be added to the population; and if he/she departs after one year he/she will be subtracted from the population even though he/she had not been added in on arrival.

A3.14. Chart A3.1 identifies the type of category jumping that may logically occur. People who are in shaded areas in the chart are considered to have jumped a category.

	A3.1. Category Jumping in Overseas Movement

• Visitors or residents who were categorised as short-term on arrival (visitors) or on departure (residents) respectively but were not in the same category on completion of their journeys, and

• Visitors or residents who are not in the short-term category on arrival (visitors) or on departure (residents) but were in that category on completion of their journeys.
  

• Overseas visitor component - this is derived by calculating the difference between the number of short-term visitors who enter Australia in a reference quarter, and the number of visitors who depart Australia over the year following the reference quarter and state that they arrived in the reference quarter.

• Australian resident component - this is derived by calculating the difference between the number of Australian residents departing Australia in a reference quarter for a period less than 12 months, and the number of Australian residents who return to Australia over the following year and state that they departed Australia in the reference quarter.
  

	A3.2. Components of Category Jumping, Years Ended 31 December 1986 to 1998
		Residents	Visitors	Total
	1986	24,483	30,907	6,424
	1987	35,362	47,608	12,246
	1988	28,635	52,331	23,696
	1989	45,043	56,512	11,469
	1990	45,256	45,807	551
	1991	44,580	32,726	-11,854
	1992	84,494	59,058	-25,436
	1993	51,303	28,617	-22,686
	1994	41,663	16,932	-24,731
	1995	18,359	20,650	2,291
	1996	10,459	4,833	-5,626
	1997	16,668	23,985	-7,317
	1998	18,878	26,070	7,192

	A3.3. Australian Residents Returning from Overseas Who Departed in the March Quarter, 1992 to 1997
			Quarter of Return (per cent)						Residents departing (No.)
	Year	Estimate	Same Quarter	Q+1	Q+2	Q+3	Q+4	Remainder (per cent)
	1992	Quarter	66.48	20.86	3.62	2.64	1.50	4.90	454,170
		Cumulative		87.34	93.60	95.10	95.10
	1993	Quarter	68.37	21.89	3.20	2.42	1.52	2.61	460,291
		Cumulative		90.26	93.45	95.87	97.39
	1994	Quarter	66.29	24.18	3.39	2.18	1.27	2.68	492,142
		Cumulative		90.47	93.86	96.04	97.32
	1995	Quarter	68.77	23.08	3.62	2.43	1.31	0.79	512,528
		Cumulative		91.85	95.47	97.90	99.21
	1996	Quarter	65.89	23.50	3.27	2.20	1.43	3.71	578,898
		Cumulative		89.39	92.66	94.86	96.29
	1997	Quarter	66.47	23.83	3.41	2.21	1.23	2.86	625,077
		Cumulative		90.30	93.71	95.91	97.14

A3.21. Since the commencement of adjusting population estimates for category jumping, a number of methods of producing a preliminary estimate of category jumping have been investigated:

• A regression model based on the relationship between the intended length of stay stated by short-term movers at the commencement of their journey, and the actual length of stay as stated on completion of their journey. This method was discontinued when it was realised that superior estimates could be made by assuming that there was no category jumping.

• Assume preliminary category jumping to be zero. This method was used until September quarter 1989.

• The application of category jumping rates by country of birth, to quarterly estimates of visitors arriving and residents departing. These rates looked relatively stable over time, and produced good estimates for a couple of years before a sudden rise in 1993 in the number of Australian residents departing with the intention of returning within 12 months but staying longer.

	A3.4. Major Birthplace Groups Contributing to Category Jumping, 1990-91 to 1996-97
					Period
	Country of birth	1990-91	1991-92	1992-93	1993-94	1994-95	1995-96	1996-97
	Australian Residents
	Australia	18,380	11,014	3,087	12,862	-2,490	-1,652	-9,891
	New Zealand	9,064	3,172	2,032	3,413	388	874	2,021
	United Kingdom and Ireland	13,835	3,420	14,906	7,356	-1,539	953	-1,038
	Former Yugoslav Republics	-2,890	1,185	-1,167	1,375	-1,557	696	514
	Malaysia and Brunei	3,804	4,103	3,394	432	1,359	565	187
	Viet Nam	206	303	1,933	-431	3,422	-3,131	-661
	China	2,603	4,828	625	1,112	2,876	2,957	2,730
	Hong Kong and Macao	2,875	9,214	7,041	3,477	3,901	8,233	17,336
	Japan	2,973	4,626	4,206	1,059	2,481	-417	86
	India	178	1,650	2,446	2,124	-881	1,822	-2,022
	Total	65,388	72,753	76,751	41,178	24,395	19,820	23,985
	Overseas Visitors
	Australia	3,572	6,301	3,042	8,559	7,226	4,323	1,967
	Fiji	735	896	763	-1	250	445	260
	New Zealand	9,995	4,601	7,044	10,613	6,424	7,250	5,728
	Papua New Guinea	2,072	710	660	437	-115	128	-431
	United Kingdom and Ireland	5,267	5,808	4,280	4,023	6,755	6,818	16,233
	Philippines	1,890	1,905	1,795	595	-4	1,991	4,369
	Singapore	427	403	-1,419	-4,703	-2,138	-2,656	-5,107
	China	2,262	3,592	3,563	4,603	8,910	11,296	10,024
	Hong Kong and Macao	-288	2,673	3,118	-1,519	-8,770	-9,024	-9,296
	United States of America	-628	-140	-714	-1,441	-6,113	-1,692	407
	Total	57,063	51,445	44,122	20,346	11,478	14,296	16,668