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QUALITY DECLARATION - SUMMARY


INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) household and family projections are produced from a combination of ABS data: the 5-yearly Census of Population and Housing, estimated resident population, household estimates and population projections.

For information on the institutional environment of the ABS, including the legislative obligations of the ABS, financing and governance arrangements, and mechanisms for scrutiny of ABS operations, please see ABS Institutional Environment.


RELEVANCE

Household and family projections inform on future changes in numbers and types of households and families, and are used in a variety of planning decisions. Projections are published for Australia, the states, territories, capital cities and balances of state.

TIMELINESS

ABS household and family projections are compiled and published once every five years; typically, three years following the most recent ABS Census of Population and Housing.


ACCURACY

ABS household and family projections are based on assumptions about future living arrangements of Australia's population. They are not intended as predictions or forecasts, but are illustrations of growth and change in numbers and types of households and families that would occur if assumptions about future living arrangements of Australia's population were to prevail over the projection period.

While the assumptions are formulated on the basis of an assessment of demographic trends, there is no certainty that any of the assumptions will be realised. In addition, no assessment has been made of possible future changes in non-demographic conditions.

It is important to also recognise that the future population of Australia underlying the household and family projections is itself based on a range of assumptions (about future fertility rates, mortality rates and levels of migration). For the purpose of this release, the Series B projection from Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0) has been used as Australia's future population.


COHERENCE

As the assumptions used in each successive set of household and family projections incorporate recent trends, comparison of data across issues of this release is not possible. However, projected numbers of households are compatible and comparable with ABS household estimates for 2011 and earlier years.

Estimates of the number of families in 2011 in this release differ from counts of families from the 2011 Census of Population and Housing. This is due to estimates of families in this release being based on 2011 estimated resident population as well as 2011 Census living arrangement propensities. The 2011 estimated resident population of Australia is greater than the 2011 Census count of people in Australia as it includes Census net undercount and residents temporarily overseas, and as a result, the number of families based on 2011 estimated resident population is greater than the number of families from the 2011 Census.


INTERPRETABILITY

ABS household and family projections are not intended as predictions or forecasts, and should not be considered as such. Rather, they are illustrations of growth and change in numbers of households and families in Australia that would occur if the assumptions were to prevail over the projection period. As future trends in living arrangements are unpredictable, three assumptions have been made regarding these, to illustrate a range of possible future outcomes.

This release contains notes on the assumptions and methods used to produce the household and family projections. It also contains Explanatory Notes, Appendices and a Glossary that provide information on the data sources, terminology, classifications and other technical aspects associated with these statistics.


ACCESSIBILITY

ABS household and family projections are available in a variety of formats on the ABS website under the 3236.0 product family. The formats available are:

• Main Features, which contains key figures commentary;
• three data cubes (in Microsoft Excel format) containing numbers of households, families, and persons by living arrangement for Australia, the states, territories, capital cities and balances of state, for 2011 to 2036;
• one data cube (in Microsoft Excel format) containing living arrangement propensities for Australia for the 1996 to 2011 Censuses; and
• one data cube (in SuperTABLE format) containing numbers of persons by living arrangement by 5-year age group for Australia, the states, territories, capital cities and balances of state, for 2011 to 2036.