QUALITY DECLARATION SUMMARY
INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT
ABS population projections are based on a series of assumptions on future levels of fertility, mortality, net overseas migration and net interstate migration. Assumptions are derived from an analysis of data sourced from a variety of institutional environments. Much of this data is administrative by-product data collected by other organisations. Assumptions on fertility and mortality are based on births and deaths statistics extracted from registers administered by the various States and Territory Registrars of Births, Deaths and Marriages. Passenger card data and related information provided to the Department of Immigration and Citizenship (DIAC) provides information on overseas migration to/from Australia, which is then used to make assumptions about future levels of net overseas migration. Medicare Australia client address data is used to estimate interstate migration, from which assumptions on future levels of net interstate migration are derived.
ABS Census of Population and Housing and Post Enumeration Survey (PES) data are used to determine a base population from which estimated resident population (ERP) is calculated. The estimated resident population for the latest available year is used as the base population for the population projections. For information on the institutional environment of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), please see ABS Institutional Environment.
RELEVANCE
Population projections inform on future changes in the population of Australia, such as population growth/decline and changes in age structure, and are therefore used in a variety of key planning decisions. Projections are published for the states, territories, capital cities and balances of state, by single year of age and sex. Projected numbers of births and deaths are published.
Assumptions on future levels of fertility, mortality, net overseas migration and net interstate migration are formulated on the basis of demographic trends over the past decade and longer, both in Australia and overseas, in conjunction with consultation with various individuals and government department representatives at the national and state/territory level.
TIMELINESS
ABS population projections are compiled and published once in each five year period; typically, two to three years following the most recent ABS Census of Population and Housing.
ACCURACY
ABS population projections are based on a number of assumptions on future levels of fertility, mortality, net overseas migration and net interstate migration. They are not intended as predictions or forecasts, but are illustrations of growth and change in the population that would occur if the assumptions were to prevail over the projection period.
While the assumptions are formulated on the basis of an assessment of past demographic trends, both in Australia and overseas, there is no certainty that any of the assumptions will be realised. In addition, the assumptions do not attempt to allow for non-demographic factors (such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars, epidemics or significant health treatment improvements) which may affect future demographic behaviour or outcomes.
Data used in the formulation of the assumptions are subject to non-sampling error. For more information on the accuracy of these component data collections see Quality Declaration Summary - Australian Demographic Statistics, Mar 2013 (cat. no. 3101.0).
COHERENCE
As the assumptions used in each successive set of population projections incorporate recent trends, comparison of data across issues of this publication is not possible.
INTERPRETABILITY
ABS population projections are not intended as predictions or forecasts, and should not be considered as such. Rather, they are illustrations of growth and change in the population that would occur if the assumptions were to prevail over the projection period. As future levels of fertility, mortality, overseas migration and internal migration are unpredictable, two or more assumptions have been made for each component. These are intended to illustrate a range of possible future scenarios.
For more information on the method used to compile ABS population projections see Population Estimates: Concepts, Sources and Methods, 2009 (cat. no. 3228.0.55.001) and Chapter 2—Assumptions of Population Projections, Australia (cat. no. 3222.0).
ACCESSIBILITY
ABS population projections are available in a variety of formats on the ABS web site under the 3222.0 product family. The formats available are:
• Main Features, which contains key figures commentary;
• A PDF version of the publication including Main Features, Assumptions and Projection results for Australia;
• Time Series Spreadsheets for Australia and the states and territories, by single year of age and sex, for the 3 main projection series (Series A, B and C);
• Data cubes (in SuperTABLE format or ABS.Stat format) containing population projections for Australia, the states, territories, capital cities and balances of state, by single year of age and sex, for all projection series; and
• Two data cubes (in Microsoft Excel format). The first data cube contains population projections, components of change and summary statistics for Australia, the states, territories, capital cities and balances of state, for the 3 main projection series (Series A, B and C). The second data cube contains projection assumptions.
If the information you require is not available as a standard product, then ABS Consultancy Services can help you with customised services to suit your needs. For inquiries contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or email client.services@abs.gov.au.
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