Household and Family Projections, Australia

The household estimates and projections in this publication cover the period 2021 to 2046 for Australia, the states and territories and capital cities and rest of state regions. The projections of households, families and persons by living arrangement are based on the medium series population projections from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) - 2071.

Three series are presented in this publication. These are based on three different assumptions for living arrangement propensities over the projection period:

• series I assumes no change from 2021 living arrangement propensity,
• series II assumes the historical rate of change in propensities from 2006 to 2021 but gradually plateauing,
• series III assumes the historical rate of change in propensities from 2006 to 2021 continuing.
   

In 2046, there are projected to be between 13.3 million and 13.9 million households in Australia (up from 10.0 million in 2021).

• Family households are projected to remain the most common household type in Australia, at 68% to 70% of all household in 2046.
• Lone person households are projected to make up 26% to 28% of all Australian households in 2046.
• Group households are projected to make up 4% to 5% of all households in 2046.
   

In 2046, there are projected to be between 9.5 million and 9.7 million families in Australia (up from 7.2 million in 2021).

• Couples with children are projected to make up 42% to 43% of all families in 2046; down slightly from 44% in 2021.
• Couples without children are projected to be the second most common family type, at 38% to 40% in 2046 (39% in 2021).
• Female lone parent families are projected to make up 13% to 14% of all families in 2046 (compared to 13% in 2021).
• Male lone parent families are projected to increase the fastest of any family type, increasing by between 40% to 69% by 2046.
   

In 2046, there are projected to be 34 million people in Australia (up from 26 million in 2021).

• Living with a partner is projected to be the most common living arrangement in 2046, at 45% to 47% of all persons (46% in 2021).
• Over a quarter (27% to 28%) of Australia's population are projected to live as children in a family household in 2046.
• Between 3.4 and 4.0 million Australians are projected to be living alone in 2046.
   

Projected numbers of households and families are based on the number of persons projected to be living in particular household relationships, or living arrangements.

This publication contains three series of projections. Each series reflects a different assumption about future change in peoples' living arrangements. Living arrangement information from the last four Censuses (2006, 2011, 2016, 2021) are used to set the assumptions.

These assumptions are intended to illustrate a range of possible future outcomes. There is no certainty that any particular outcome will be realised, or that future outcomes will necessarily fall within these ranges.

The graph below illustrates the 3 assumptions using hypothetical data:

• series I is no change from 2021
• series II levels off in 2036
• series III continues the change (observed in 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021) out to 2046

The assumptions are calculated by five year age groups and by 15 living arrangement types. These assumptions are calculated separately for Australia, each state and territory, and each capital city and rest of state area.

Projected living arrangement proportions for 2022 to 2046 are then applied to the 'medium series' projected population from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) - 2071. This gives the projected number of persons in each living arrangement. The projections for smaller areas were adjusted so that the totals sum to the Australia level projection. The use of a different underlying population is explored in the page 'What if...'.

Numbers of households and families are then derived from the projected living arrangements of the population.

For more detail on the method behind these projections, see the Technical Note - 'Method'.

Around half the Australian population was living in a couple family with children between 2001 and 2021. This was the most common living arrangement.

In 2021:

• 48% of Australians lived in a couple family with children.
• 24% were partners, 23% were children.
   

In 2001:

• 52% of Australians lived in a couple family with children.
• 26% were partners, 26% were children.
   

People living in couple-only families (without children) increased from 20% in 2001 to 22% in 2021, but there were different patterns for different age groups.

Between 2001 and 2021, the proportion of people living in couple-only families:

• Increased among 25–34 year olds (from 23% to 28% of this age group).
• Decreased among 45–59 year olds (from 30% to 21% of this age group).
• Increased among people aged 75 years and over (from 38% to 45% of this age group) – due to males living longer.
   

The proportion of people living in one parent families remained around 12% between 2001 and 2021.

In 2021 one in five (20%) lone parents were male (17% in 2001).

Group households increased from 3% to 4% of Australia's population between 2001 to 2021.

In 2001:

• Almost one in four group household members (23%) were aged 50 or over – up from 16% in 2001.
• The average group household size was 2.3 people (2.0 in 2001).
   

The proportion of people living alone increased from 9% in 2001 to 10% in 2021.

Under age 55, most people living alone were men (55% in 2021, down from 59% in 2001), but over age 55 most people living alone were women (62% in 2021, down from 68% in 2001).

Between 2001 and 2021 people who usually lived in non-private dwellings (such as boarding schools, aged care facilities, prisons and workers' accommodation) increased from 1.7% to 1.8% of Australia's population. The boarding house or private hotel population had the largest increase of any non-private dwelling type.

Trends in living arrangements were similar across the states and territories. Where differences exist, this usually reflects differences in the age structure of the population.

For example,

• The state with the oldest age structure, Tasmania, had the highest proportion of couples without children.
• The state with the youngest age structure, the Northern Territory, had the lowest proportion of lone person households (which were mainly older females).
   

Households in Australia are projected to grow from from 10.0 million in 2021 to between 13.3 and 13.9 million in 2046. The Australian population is projected to grow by 32% over that period – from 25.7 to 33.9 million people.

In 2046 there are projected to be between 2.4 and 2.6 people per household on average. This is similar to the 2021 average of 2.6.

Family households are projected to:

• Remain the most common household type in Australia at 68% to 70% of all households in 2046 (similar to 70% in 2021).
• Increase to between 9.2 and 9.5 million households by 2046 – up from 7.0 million in 2021.
   

Lone person households are projected to:

• Make up 26% to 28% of all Australian households in 2046 (compared to 26% in 2021).
• Increase to between 3.4 and 4.0 million households by 2046 – up from 2.6 million in 2021.
   

Group households are projected to:

• Make up 3.6% to 4.6% of all households in 2046 (compared to 4.1% in 2021).
• Increase to between 506,371 and 608,518 households in 2046 – up from 405,672 in 2021.
   

Households are projected to grow by 1.5% per year on average in Australia between 2021 and 2031. That is higher than the projection for New Zealand (1.0%) and England (0.7%). There are no official household projections for the culturally similar countries Canada and the USA.

The average household size for Australia was similar to New Zealand in 2021 (2.57 and 2.70 respectively), but this is projected to decrease in Australia (2.55 in 2031). England's household size was smaller (2.36).

Families are projected to grow from 7.2 million in 2021 to be between 9.5 and 9.7 million in Australia in 2046. 

There are more families than family households because multiple families can live together in one household. The projected family types are:

• couples with children
• couples without children
• one parent families (male and female)
• other families.

Other families include other combinations of related individuals such as adult siblings living together.

• Couples with children are projected to make up 42% to 43% of all families in 2046 – down slightly from 44% in 2021.
• Couples without children are projected to be the second most common family type in 2046, at 38% to 40% (39% in 2021).
• Lone female parent families are projected to make up 13% to 14% of all families in 2046 (13% in 2021) and 77% to 80% of all one-parent families (80% in 2021).
• Lone male parent families are projected to increase the fastest of any family type, increasing by between 40% and 69% (315,081 to 381,604 families) by 2046.
• Other families are projected to make up 1.5% to 1.6% of all families in 2046 (1.7% in 2021).
   

Between 15.4 and 16.0 million people are projected to be living with a partner in 2046 (up from 11.8 million in 2021) – or 45% to 47% of Australians.

In 2046, around half (52%) of people living with a partner are projected to have children living with them as well (down from 53% in 2021).

The number of lone parents is projected to increase from 1.2 million in 2021 to between 1.6 and 1.7 million in 2046.

• Female lone parents are projected to increase by between 37% and 40%, from 924,898 in 2021 to 1.3 million in 2046.
• Male lone parents are projected to increase by between 40% and 69%, from 225,212 in 2021 to between 315,081 and 381,604 in 2046.
• Around four in five lone parents are projected to be female (between 77% and 80% in 2046, compared to 80% in 2021).
   

Just over a quarter (27% to 28%) of Australia's population are projected to live with their parents in 2046, slightly down from 30% in 2021.

Of those living with parents (or parent figures) around three in four (76% to 77%) are projected to be living with two parents and one in four living with one parent in 2046.

Families with children can include children of any age. They may be families with dependent children, students or adult children, while in some families an adult child may be caring for an elderly parent.

In 2046, around 2.7% to 3.1% of the population are projected to live with other relatives (2.5% in 2021), such as elderly parents living with their adult child's family or adult siblings living together. That's between 904,945 and 1,041,210 Australians in 2046 (636,667 in 2021).

People living with other relatives are projected to:

• Decrease for 20–29 year olds, from 27% in 2021 to between 21% and 23% in 2046.
• Potentially increase for 50–59 year olds, from 11% in 2021 to between 10% and 13% in 2046.
• Potentially increase for those aged 80 years and over, from 10% in 2021 to between 13% and 17% in 2046.
   

Between 3.4 and 4.0 million people are projected to be living alone in 2046 (up from 2.6 million in 2021). That's an increase of between 30% and 50%, mainly because of the ageing population.

• More than half of all people living alone are women (55% in 2021, and between 54% and 57% in 2046).
• Under the age of 60, men are more likely to be living alone than women (54% in 2021 and projected to be between 49% and 54% in 2046).
• Over age 60 years, there are more women then men living alone (64% in 2021 and projected to be between 57% and 65% in 2046), reflecting the higher life expectancy of women.
   

In 2046, there are projected to be between 1.2 and 1.4 million people in group households (up from 928,569 in 2021). That's an increase of 28% to 53%.

• Group households make up a small part of the population – projected to be 3% to 4% in 2046 (compared to 4% in 2021).
• Almost half (48%) of all group household members were in their twenties in 2021, but this is projected to decline to between 42% and 45% in 2046.
• 8% to 9% of group household members are projected to be aged 70 years and over in 2046, up from 6% in 2021.
   

Between 683,814 and 818,572 people are projected to live in non-private dwellings in 2046, up from 474,013 in 2021. That's an increase of between 44% and 73% – faster than the projected population increase of 32%.

Around one third (between 195,605 and 321,102) of all people projected to be living in non-private dwellings in 2046 are aged 85 years and over, up from 121,441 in 2021. The large majority of elderly people living in non-private dwellings in 2021 were in nursing homes or retirement homes.

Another quarter (between 140,917 and 165,059) are projected to be younger people aged 15–29 in 2046, up from 115,156 in 2021.

In 2021, most people aged 18–24 living in non-private dwellings were in university accommodation.

The number of children aged 0–14 years in Australia is projected to increase to 5.3 million in 2046, up from 4.7 million in 2021.

• Around four in five children are projected to live in couple families in 2046 (82% to 84%, compared to 82% in 2021).
• Most of the remaining children are projected to live in one parent families (15% to 18%, compared to 18% in 2021).
• Only a very small number of children are projected to live in non-private dwellings such as boarding schools or hospital accommodation (0.2% to 0.3%, compared to 0.2% in 2021).
   

The proportion of children living in couple families decreases with age, and the proportion living in one parent families increases. In 2046, 87% to 89% of 0–4 year olds are projected to live in couple families, compared to 82% to 84% of 5–9 year olds and 78% to 80% of 10–14 year olds.

People in this age group move from mainly living as a child in a one or two-parent family at age 15–19, to mainly living with a partner at ages 25–29.

People living as a child in a one or two-parent family in 2046 are projected to make up:

• Nine in ten teenagers aged 15–19 (90% to 94%).
• Five to six in ten people aged 20–24 (51% to 58%).
• Two in ten people aged 25–29 (20% to 23%).
   

In contrast, those living with a partner (with or without children) in 2046 made up:

• 0% to 1% of 15–19 year olds.
• 11% to 17% of 20–24 year olds.
• 36% to 45% of 25–29 year olds.
   

The proportion of 25-29 year olds who are parents living with their child (8% to 18% in 2046) is projected to remain higher than for 20-24 year olds (1% to 5% in 2046).

The proportion of 15-29 year olds who are parents living with their child is projected to decline from 8% in 2021 to between 3% and 8% in 2046, reflecting the continuing trend of women delaying childbirth until their thirties.

Those living as group household members is projected to be similar for 20–24 year olds (12% to 13%) and 25–29 year olds (13% to 17%).

Most people (49% to 54%) aged 30–44 years are projected to be living as partners with children in 2046. This figure increases with age, from 29% to 40% of 30–34 year olds, to 63% to 64% of 40–44 year olds.

The second most common living arrangement for this age group in 2046 is living as a partner without children (16% to 20%), followed by living alone (7% to 8%).

Living as partners with children is projected to be the most common living arrangement for 45–59 year olds (48% to 54% in 2046). The proportion decreases for the older age groups, from 60% to 61% of 45–49 year olds, to 35% to 45% of 55–59 year olds.

Lone parents and parents in couple families with children are projected to increase among this age group by 2046 (series II and III), while living as a partner without children is projected to become less common. Series I projects similar proportions in 2046 as in 2021.

The majority of 60–74 year olds are projected to be living as partners without children (44% to 52% in 2046).

Living alone (20%) is projected to be the next most common living arrangement among this age group in 2046, followed by living as a partner with children (14% to 18%).

The prevalence of living alone increases with age, from 18% of 60–64 year olds to 21% to 23% of 70–74 year olds, reflecting the death of partners at this age.

People in this age group are projected to move from mainly living as a partner without children at ages 75–79, to mainly living alone at ages 85 years and over.

People living as a partner without children in 2046 is projected to make up:

• 54% to 62% of 75–79 year olds.
• 46% to 57% of 80–84 year olds.
• 25% to 35% of people aged 85 years and over.
   

In contrast, those living alone in 2046 made up:

• 19% to 26% of 75–79 year olds.
• 21% to 31% of 80–84 year olds.
• 31% to 35% of people aged 85 years and over.
   

The likelihood of living in a non-private dwelling increases with age, from 2% to 3% of 75–79 year olds to 14% to 23% of people aged 85 years and over.

In 2046, 67% of all Australian households are projected to be in capital cities (up from 66% in 2021). All capital cities are projected to experience higher growth in households than the rest of the state/territory, due to higher population growth projected in capital cities.

Fastest growth: Melbourne is projected to have the fastest growth in households – between 47% and 52% by 2046.

Slowest growth: The rest of South Australia (outside Adelaide) is projected to have the slowest growth in households – between 2% and 4% by 2046.

Largest increase: Melbourne is projected to have the largest increase in households – an extra 886,800 to 977,800 households by 2046, reaching between 2.8 and 2.9 million households.

Smallest increase: The rest of South Australia (outside Adelaide) is projected to have the smallest increase in households – an extra 4,000 to 7,500 households by 2046, reaching between 177,700 and 181,300 households.

• In New South Wales the most common living arrangement in 2021 was to be a partner in a couple family (25%).
• Households and families are projected to increase more slowly in New South Wales than for Australia as a whole.
• Households and families are projected to increase faster in Victoria than any other state/territory.
• Tasmania has the lowest proportion of family households and the highest proportion of lone person households.
• There is a lower proportion of lone person households in the Northern Territory than any other state or territory and a higher proportion of family households.
• The Northern Territory has the lowest proportion of couple families without children.
• One parent families are less common in the Australian Capital Territory than any other state or territory, while couple families with children are more common than every state and territory other than Victoria.
   
   

The size and age/sex structure of Australia's future population will influence the number of future households, families and people in different living arrangements.

Previous sections of this publication apply three different assumptions about living arrangements to the medium series projection from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071. This section looks at the impact of using the high series or low series population projections as the future population of Australia.

Using the medium series projection as the future population of Australia results in a projection of between 13.3 and 13.9 million households in Australia in 2046. This is an increase of between 3.3 and 3.9 million households.

If the high series projection was used as the future population, the number of households is projected to be 5% higher than using the medium series, increasing by between 4.0 and 4.7 million households to reach between 14.0 and 14.7 million households in 2046.

If the low series projection were used, the number is projected to be 3% to 4% lower than using the medium series, increasing by between 2.8 and 3.4 million households to reach between 12.8 and 13.4 million households.

The use of different population projection series (high, medium or low) has relatively little impact on the proportion of households in each household type. For example, family households are projected to make up 68% of all households for series II regardless of which population is used. The impact of the population projection series is mainly on the number of each type of household, rather than on the proportion relative to the population.

Using the medium series projection as the future population, the number of families in Australia is projected to reach between 9.5 and 9.7 million in 2046.

If the high series population is used instead of the medium series, higher numbers of families are projected (between 10.0 and 10.2 million in 2046), while if the low series is used, fewer families are projected (between 9.1 and 9.4 million).

As with household projections, the use of different population projection series (high, medium or low) has relatively little impact on the proportion of families in each family type. For example, couple families with children is projected to make up 42% of all families for series II regardless of which population is used. The impact of the population projection series is mainly on the number of each type of family, rather than on the proportion relative to the population.

The different age structures of the hign, medium and low series result in differences in the proportion of the projected population in each type of living arrangement.

Help for: Data Explorer

Projected households, Australia, 2021 to 2046
Projected families, Australia, 2021 to 2046
Projected persons, by living arrangement, Australia, 2021 to 2046

This release previously used catalogue number 3236.0.