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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during September 2007 (471,400 movements) changed little compared with August 2007 (471,700 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 2.2% higher than in September 2006.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - September 2007
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Aug 07 to Sep 07	Sep 06 to Sep 07
	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	94.3	94.1	114.6	-0.8	6.1
Japan	48.1	47.5	46.4	0.7	-10.5
United Kingdom	56.5	57.7	41.9	-0.5	-4.1
United States of America	37.8	38.4	30.6	-	-0.3
China	30.9	31.4	23.9	2.1	14.9
Singapore	22.5	22.5	18.2	-0.2	2.1
Korea	21.3	21.2	17.1	-1.5	-8.0
Germany	12.9	13.0	12.3	0.1	6.6
Malaysia	12.5	11.6	11.1	-2.3	-0.5
Hong Kong	12.5	12.3	9.8	-0.5	-3.1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures (460,500 movements) changed little compared with August 2007 (459,400 movements). Short-term resident departures are currently 8.5% higher than in December 2006, when a trend break was introduced - see Explanatory Notes, paragraph 23.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - September 2007
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Aug 07 to Sep 07	Sep 06 to Sep 07
	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	77.2	74.4	80.4	0.2	5.0
United States of America	40.5	40.6	54.0	1.3	10.2
United Kingdom	37.1	39.0	50.3	1.8	7.7
China	23.9	24.9	36.7	-1.1	10.1
Thailand	32.8	31.4	35.4	-0.4	33.6
Indonesia(a)	20.9	19.4	26.5	-2.6	42.5
Fiji	16.6	16.8	21.9	0.4	-3.8
Italy	9.9	10.2	21.6	-0.1	9.1
Singapore	19.3	18.9	18.9	0.4	14.1
France(b)	7.3	11.4	18.8	-	25.3
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Break in trend series from December 2006 - see Explanatory Notes, paragraph 23.
(b) Rugby World Cup held in France (7 September 2007 to 20 October 2007).

PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 11,390 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during September 2007, a decrease of 2.7% compared with September 2006 (11,700 movements). People born in the United Kingdom accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (20%), followed by people born in New Zealand (15%), India (10%) and China (9%).

There were 5,520 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during September 2007, an increase of 12.9% compared with September 2006 (4,890 movements).

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates provide the best method to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term visitor arrivals series for the United States of America. The past ten year period, to September 2007, has seen the trend series increase from a low in September 1997 (28,300 movements) to a series high in May 2001 (40,900 movements). The series fell in September 2001, coinciding with the terrorist attacks in the United States of America, and continued to fall until mid 2002. Since then, while there have been monthly fluctuations, the series has remained relatively stable. Currently, the number of movements in September 2007 (37,800 movements) is similar to that recorded in September 2006 (38,000 movements).

The seasonally adjusted series allows for the analysis of irregular impacts on the series. The graph below shows that over the ten years to September 2007, two large variations are evident for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia from the United States of America. The peak in September 2000 (72,600 movements) reflects the large number of arrivals from the United States of America during the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games. The decline in September 2001 coincides with the terrorist attacks in the United States of America in that month.

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Short-term Visitor Arrivals

In the year ended September 2007, short-term visitor arrivals from the United States of America stated holiday (42%) as the main reason for journey, followed by visiting friends and relatives (20%) and business (19%). In comparison the main reasons for journey for all short-term visitors to Australia were holiday (51%), visiting friends and relatives (21%) and business (11%). The median age of short-term visitors from the United States of America was 43 years (39 years for all short-term visitor arrivals), and the median duration of stay was 12 days (10 days for all short-term visitor arrivals).

New South Wales (52%), Victoria and Queensland (each 19%) and Western Australia (5%) were the main states/territories of intended stay for short-term visitor arrivals from the United States of America in the year ended September 2007. The main destinations for all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia were New South Wales (39%), Queensland (28%), Victoria (18%) and Western Australia (10%).

Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates provide the best method to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term resident departures series for the United States of America. Over the ten year period to September 2007, trend estimates have varied with long periods of continuous growth and decline evident in the series. A number of factors may have contributed to the downturn in resident departures to the United States of America between late 2000 to mid-2003. These include the low Australian dollar in 2000, the terrorist attacks in the United States of America in September 2001, the bombings in Bali in October 2002, the anticipation and commencement of military action in Iraq in early to mid-2003 and the emergence of SARS in early 2003. While there have been fluctuations since late 2003, overall the series has shown strong growth. The low point in the ten year series was in June 2003 (23,600 movements) while the high point was the current month (40,500 movements). Currently, the number of movements is 10% higher than in September 2006.

The large dip in the seasonally adjusted series, in the graph below, for the United States of America coincides with the terrorist attacks in the United States of America in September 2001.

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Short-term Resident Departures

In the year ended September 2007, short-term resident departures to the United States of America stated holiday (50%) as the main reason for journey, followed by business (18%), visiting friends and relatives (16%) and convention/conference (9%). In comparison the main reasons for journey for all short-term residents departing Australia were holiday (49%), visiting friends and relatives (24%), business (14%) and conference/convention (4%). The median age of short-term resident departures to the United States of America was 41 years (42 years for all short-term resident departures), and the median duration of stay was 17 days (15 days for all short-term resident departures).

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.