January Key Figures
Housing finance, Number of dwellings
| Number of dwellings, Trend estimates—% change
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January Key Points
Trend Estimates
- The trend estimate for the number of housing finance commitments for owner occupation declined by 2.3% in January 2004. The trend series excluding refinancing fell by 3.3% in January. The trend series for the value of commitments decreased by 2.6%.
- The construction finance trend series recorded a decrease of 1.0% in January 2004, the fifth consecutive monthly decrease. There were also decreases in the trend series for purchase of new dwellings (down 0.7%) and refinancing (down 0.1%). The trend in finance commitments for the purchase of established dwellings fell for the fourth consecutive month, falling by 2.5% in January.
Seasonally Adjusted Estimates
- The number of housing finance commitments (seasonally adjusted) fell by 8.1% in January 2004, primarily due to a 11.7% decline in finance for the purchase of established dwellings excluding refinancing. There were also decreases in purchase of new dwellings (down 22.3%) and refinancing of established dwellings (down 3.1%), while there was an increase in construction of dwellings (up 2.0%).
- A record 33.9% of all finance approvals were for the refinancing of an existing loan.
- Value of commitments (seasonally adjusted) fell by 7.0% in January 2004.
Original Estimates
- The percentage of commitments at a fixed rate of interest (for at least two years) decreased for the second successive month, from 14.4% in December 2003 to 12.5% in January 2004.
- The average loan value was $186,200 in January 2004, down slightly from the December figure of $187,000.
Notes
REVISIONS IN THIS ISSUE
Revisions to previously provided estimates from some lenders resulted in larger than usual revisions to some estimates back to March 2003. The most affected published estimates are those for purchases of new dwellings and refinancing of established dwellings and estimates for wholesale lenders.
INVESTMENT HOUSING
The value of commitments for the construction or purchase of dwellings for rent or resale is published in the monthly Lending Finance, Australia (cat. no. 5671.0)
Inquiries
For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Darren Page on Canberra 02 6252 6731.
Summary Commentary
Housing Finance Summary of Findings
Dwellings Financed
Number financed including refinancing
Total housing commitments (seasonally adjusted) decreased for the fourth consecutive month, decreasing by 8.1% in January 2004 after a fall of 1.1% in December 2003. The decrease was mainly due to the purchase of established dwellings excluding refinancing (down 3667, -11.7%), and there were also falls in refinancing commitments (down 574, -3.1%) and purchases of new dwellings (down 471, -22.3%). Construction of dwellings increased (up 104, 2.0%).
The total housing finance trend fell by 2.3% in January 2004, with the large fall in the seasonally adjusted series this month leading to stronger trend decline with downward revisions to the trend series back to October 2003.
The large fall in seasonally adjusted total housing finance was driven mainly by NSW (down 1582, -8.6%), Queensland (down 1447, -12.4%) and WA (down 741, -9.8%). Decreases were also recorded in Victoria (down 426, -3.4%), ACT (down 54, -7.3%), Tasmania (down 50, -4.3%) and SA (down 34, -0.7%), while the only increase was for NT (up 9, 2.3%). The trend decreased in all states and territories except NT.
The percentage of commitments at a fixed rate of interest (for at least two years) decreased for the second successive month, from 14.4% in December 2003 to 12.5% in January 2004.
Number financed excluding refinancing
The number of dwellings financed excluding refinancing (seasonally adjusted) decreased in January 2004 (down 4034, -10.4%), the fourth consecutive monthly decrease and the strongest percentage decline in this series since June 2000. The trend series decreased by 3.3% in January.
Value of commitments
The total value of commitments (seasonally adjusted) fell for the fourth successive month, falling by 7.0% in January 2004. The trend series decreased by 2.6% in January.
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Purpose of Finance
Construction of dwellings
Construction commitments (seasonally adjusted) increased by 2.0% in January 2004. The trend series fell 1.0% in January, continuing the decline since September.
Purchase of new dwellings
The seasonally adjusted estimate for commitments to purchase newly erected dwellings decreased by 22.3% in January 2004, offsetting the increase in the series in October 2003 (up 29.8%).The trend series for purchase of new dwellings fell by 0.7% in January 2004, the first decline in this series since September 2002.
Purchase of established dwellings
The seasonally adjusted established dwelling finance series decreased by 8.5% (down 4241) in January 2004, the fourth successive month of decreasing commitments and the strongest percentage decline in this series since June 2000. The trend series decreased by 2.5% in January.
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Refinancing
The number of refinancing commitments (seasonally adjusted) fell by 3.1% in January 2004. The trend series declined by 0.1%, the first fall in this series since October 2001.
Type of Lender
Banks
Bank finance (seasonally adjusted) decreased for the fourth consecutive month, falling by 9.3% (down 3964) in January 2004 after a decrease of 1.4% in December. The trend series has now declined for four successive months (-2.6% in January 2004), with the strong fall in the seasonally adjusted estimate in January accelerating the rate of this decline and causing downward revisions to the trend series back to October 2003.
Non-banks
Non-bank commitments (seasonally adjusted) decreased for the fourth consecutive month in January 2004, decreasing by 4.4%. There were seasonally adjusted decreases recorded for wholesale lenders (down 10.4%) and permanent building societies (down 5.9%). The non-bank trend series decreased by 1.2%.
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