3401.0.55.001 - Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia, Aug 2006  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 19/09/2006   
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NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE Release Date
September 2006 18 October 2006
October 2006 16 November 2006
November 2006 18 December 2006
December 2006 17 January 2007
January 2007 16 February 2007
February 2007 16 March 2007



DATA NOTES

The estimates presented in this publication provide an early indication of short-term visitor arrival movements prior to final data becoming available for the reference month. Monthly data prior to the reference month are final estimates. The ABS encourages users of these data to refer to the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) for final ABS estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for the reference period. Final estimates for August 2006 will be released on 5 October 2006.


This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See Explanatory Note 6.


Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See Explanatory Note 10.


Original estimates are influenced by seasonal and one-off or irregular factors which may distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of the trend estimates for time series analysis. See the Demography Working Paper 2004/2 - Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates (cat. no. 3106.0.55.002).


Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates are subject to revision, particularly at the current end of the series, due to additional original information becoming available. See Explanatory Notes 14 to 17.



REVISIONS

The seasonally adjusted and trend series have been updated following the annual review of the seasonal adjustment process. This review provides the opportunity to confirm the extent to which movements are due to seasonal or irregular influences. As a result, the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of a small number of series have been revised. Additionally, seasonally adjusted and trend series estimates may show minor revisions due to the usual monthly concurrent adjustments.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for August 2006 (446,100 movements) decreased by 0.6% compared with July 2006 (448,700 movements). This followed monthly decreases of 0.8% for June 2006 and 0.7% for July 2006.


Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 2.6% lower than in August 2005.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for August 2006 (446,400 movements) decreased by 0.1% compared with July 2006 (446,800 movements). This followed a monthly increase of 3.3% for June 2006 and a monthly decrease of 2.6% for July 2006.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term




ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original movement terms there were an estimated 416,600 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during August 2006.

TABLE 1: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT, VISITOR ARRIVALS(a) - August 2006
Aug 06
Jul 06 to Aug 06
Aug 05 to Aug 06
'000
% change
% change
Trend
446.1
-0.6
-2.6
Seasonally adjusted
446.4
-0.1
. .
Original
416.6
. .
. .
. . not applicable
(a) Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates may be revised each month. See Explanatory Notes 14 to 17.



TABLE 2: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT(a), VISITOR ARRIVALS - Country of Residence(b)
Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jul 06
Aug 06
Jul 06 to Aug 06
Aug 05 to Aug 06
Jul 06
Aug 06
Jul 06 to Aug 06
Aug 06
Country of residence
'000
'000
% change
% change
'000
'000
% change
'000
OCEANIA & ANTARCTICA
New Zealand
86.6
85.9
-0.9
-5.6
85.6
82.3
-3.8
91.1
Total
98.1
97.3
-0.8
-4.3
96.9
93.8
-3.2
100.8
NORTH-WEST EUROPE
Germany
12.6
12.5
-0.5
-0.2
11.9
12.9
8.6
11.6
Netherlands
4.2
4.3
0.3
2.2
4.4
4.3
-2.4
2.7
Sweden
3.0
2.9
-2.4
-2.5
2.8
2.8
0.2
1.2
Switzerland
3.5
3.5
-2.2
-0.9
3.5
3.4
-4.0
1.8
United Kingdom
57.2
56.4
-1.5
-3.7
56.3
57.4
2.0
39.2
Total
97.7
96.6
-1.1
-2.4
95.8
98.2
2.5
70.5
SOUTHERN & EASTERN EUROPE
Italy
4.2
4.2
0.6
0.6
4.3
4.1
-4.5
6.1
Total
10.2
10.3
0.4
3.2
10.1
10.3
2.4
12.3
NORTH AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST
Total
6.3
6.3
-0.3
6.1
6.3
6.0
-5.0
9.7
SOUTH-EAST ASIA
Indonesia
6.5
6.4
-1.0
-5.1
6.2
6.8
10.2
5.4
Malaysia
12.4
12.7
2.1
-7.4
13.1
13.4
1.9
12.8
Philippines
3.2
3.3
2.5
15.2
3.1
3.5
13.0
3.1
Singapore
20.4
20.2
-0.6
-12.5
21.8
19.8
-9.3
13.9
Thailand
6.1
6.1
-0.9
-6.2
6.2
6.1
-2.9
5.1
Total
51.5
51.7
0.4
-6.6
53.3
52.5
-1.5
43.0
NORTH-EAST ASIA
China
25.7
25.5
-1.0
12.2
25.1
26.5
5.6
22.9
Japan
50.8
50.9
0.1
-10.8
51.0
52.4
2.8
61.5
Korea
21.3
21.4
0.3
3.1
20.7
21.5
4.2
19.0
Taiwan
7.1
7.1
0.6
-26.5
7.8
7.1
-8.0
8.1
Total
118.5
118.4
-0.1
-4.6
118.6
121.4
2.4
124.9
AMERICAS
Canada
9.5
9.4
-0.7
12.0
9.8
9.2
-5.9
6.5
United States of America
37.6
36.8
-2.1
-1.4
37.3
35.8
-4.0
32.9
Total
50.8
49.9
-1.7
2.4
50.6
48.8
-3.7
42.6
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
South Africa
4.6
4.6
-0.1
7.1
4.7
4.5
-4.3
3.9
Total
6.1
6.1
0.1
5.7
6.3
6.0
-4.1
5.1
Total(c)
448.7
446.1
-0.6
-2.6
446.8
446.4
-0.1
416.6
(a) This table presents a summary of the most recent overseas arrivals and departures estimates. Time series data for months earlier than those presented in this table are available as time series spreadsheets from the ABS web site.
(b) Data for the current month are statistically modelled on passport movements and past arrival trends from passenger cards. Monthly data prior to the current month are estimates based on passenger card data.
(c) Includes Southern and Central Asia and not stated/inadequately described.