OCTOBER 2007 KEY POINTS
Trend
The October 2007 trend estimate for new motor vehicle sales (88 216) increased 0.5% when compared with the September 2007 estimate. The trend estimate has now been increasing for over 15 consecutive months. When compared to October 2006, the trend estimate increased by 8.2%.
Sports utility vehicles increased 2.2% and other vehicles increased by 1.3% when comparing October 2007 to September 2007. Passenger vehicles decreased 0.4% for the same period. Trend estimates for sports utility vehicles have been increasing for over 15 consecutive months and other vehicles for 13 consecutive months.
All vehicle types have recorded increases when compared to the same period 12 months ago. Sports utility vehicles, other vehicles and passenger vehicles rose 22.9%, 15.3% and 1.8%, respectively.
When comparing October 2007 to September 2007, all states and territories showed increases in the trend estimate of total sales of new motor vehicles. Victoria and the Northern Territory showed the largest increases, both increasing 0.6%. The Australian Capital Territory increased the least with 0.2%.
Seasonally adjusted
The October 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate for total sales of new motor vehicles (88 856) increased by 1.1% compared with September 2007. Sports utility vehicles and other vehicles increased by 4.6% and 1.5% respectively, while passenger vehicles decreased by 0.2%.
When comparing October 2007 to September 2007, four states and territories showed increases in total sales. The largest increase was in the Northern Territory with an increase of 5.0%, followed by South Australia with 4.7%. Total sales decreased in the Australian Capital Territory (1.5%), Western Australia (1.3%), Victoria (1.2%) and Tasmania (0.3%).
New motor vehicles sales October 2007
| NSW | Vic. | Qld | SA | WA | Tas.(a) | NT(a) | ACT(a) | Aust. |
Vehicle sales
|
| | | | | | | | | |
Seasonally adjusted | 27 394 | 22 436 | 19 616 | 5 266 | 10 264 | 1 630 | 856 | 1 394 | 88 856 |
Trend | 26 941 | 22 636 | 19 291 | 5 135 | 10 363 | 1 622 | 831 | 1 397 | 88 216 |
Percentage change from previous month
|
| | | | | | | | | |
Seasonally adjusted | 3.5 | -1.2 | 1.2 | 4.7 | -1.3 | -0.3 | 5.0 | -1.5 | 1.1 |
Trend | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
Percentage change from previous year
|
| | | | | | | | | |
Seasonally adjusted | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 6.2 | -1.8 | 1.8 | 15.1 | 8.9 |
Trend | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 13.3 | 8.2 |
|
(a) Seasonally adjusted numbers of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory should be used with caution. For further information, see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes.
NOTES
FORTHCOMING ISSUES
ISSUE | RELEASE DATE | |
| | |
November 2007 | 21 December 2007 | |
December 2007 | 22 January 2008 | |
January 2008 | 21 February 2008 | |
February 2008 | 20 March 2008 | |
March 2008 | 21 April 2008 | |
April 2008 | 21 May 2008 | |
| | |
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES
The "what-if" analysis is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimate based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 11 and 12.
The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.
1 | The November 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the October 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.4%. |
2 | The November 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the October 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.4%. |
The percentage change of 3.4% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 3.4%.
SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES.
Table 1: New motor vehicle sales by type of vehicle
|
| | Passenger vehicles
(No.) | Sports
utility
vehicles
(No.) | Other
vehicles
(No.) | Total
vehicles
(No.) | Change passenger vehicles
(%) | Change sports utility vehicles
(%) | Change other vehicles
(%) | Change
total
vehicles
(%) |
|
Original |
|
2006 | August | 52 030 | 13 539 | 16 092 | 81 661 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 5.3 |
| September | 51 388 | 13 208 | 15 397 | 79 993 | -1.2 | -2.4 | -4.3 | -2.0 |
| October | 50 532 | 13 921 | 15 477 | 79 930 | -1.7 | 5.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 |
| November | 51 850 | 15 193 | 16 254 | 83 297 | 2.6 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 4.2 |
| December | 48 348 | 14 258 | 14 457 | 77 063 | -6.8 | -6.2 | -11.1 | -7.5 |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007 | January | 49 189 | 14 303 | 13 444 | 76 936 | 1.7 | 0.3 | -7.0 | -0.2 |
| February | 52 628 | 14 912 | 16 200 | 83 740 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 20.5 | 8.8 |
| March | 57 757 | 17 589 | 19 046 | 94 392 | 9.7 | 18.0 | 17.6 | 12.7 |
| April | 45 109 | 14 274 | 16 231 | 75 614 | -21.9 | -18.8 | -14.8 | -19.9 |
| May | 52 727 | 16 912 | 18 958 | 88 597 | 16.9 | 18.5 | 16.8 | 17.2 |
| June | 63 768 | 18 966 | 22 363 | 105 097 | 20.9 | 12.1 | 18.0 | 18.6 |
| July | 53 589 | 15 396 | 17 306 | 86 291 | -16.0 | -18.8 | -22.6 | -17.9 |
| August | 52 748 | 17 440 | 18 018 | 88 206 | -1.6 | 13.3 | 4.1 | 2.2 |
| September | 50 197 | 15 874 | 17 418 | 83 489 | -4.8 | -9.0 | -3.3 | -5.3 |
| October | 53 336 | 17 748 | 18 205 | 89 289 | 6.3 | 11.8 | 4.5 | 6.9 |
|
Seasonally adjusted |
|
2006 | August | 50 730 | 13 082 | 16 062 | 79 874 | 0.5 | -8.1 | -0.1 | -1.1 |
| September | 51 094 | 14 470 | 15 880 | 81 444 | 0.7 | 10.6 | -1.1 | 2.0 |
| October | 50 628 | 14 758 | 16 190 | 81 576 | -0.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| November | 50 808 | 14 842 | 16 098 | 81 748 | 0.4 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 0.2 |
| December | 51 591 | 14 844 | 15 640 | 82 075 | 1.5 | 0.0 | -2.8 | 0.4 |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007 | January | 54 346 | 15 332 | 16 903 | 86 581 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 8.1 | 5.5 |
| February | 53 674 | 15 459 | 17 255 | 86 388 | -1.2 | 0.8 | 2.1 | -0.2 |
| March | 53 785 | 15 609 | 17 581 | 86 975 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| April | 51 859 | 16 436 | 17 452 | 85 747 | -3.6 | 5.3 | -0.7 | -1.4 |
| May | 52 554 | 15 754 | 17 402 | 85 710 | 1.3 | -4.1 | -0.3 | -0.0 |
| June | 54 035 | 15 949 | 17 271 | 87 255 | 2.8 | 1.2 | -0.8 | 1.8 |
| July | 53 825 | 16 127 | 17 827 | 87 779 | -0.4 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 0.6 |
| August | 51 555 | 17 113 | 17 701 | 86 369 | -4.2 | 6.1 | -0.7 | -1.6 |
| September | 51 935 | 17 519 | 18 397 | 87 851 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| October | 51 844 | 18 330 | 18 682 | 88 856 | -0.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
|
Trend |
|
2006 | August | 50 221 | 14 111 | 15 968 | 80 300 | 0.7 | 0.6 | -0.4 | 0.5 |
| September | 50 589 | 14 259 | 15 935 | 80 783 | 0.7 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 0.6 |
| October | 51 091 | 14 462 | 15 972 | 81 525 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.9 |
| November | 51 716 | 14 728 | 16 117 | 82 561 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| December | 52 315 | 15 029 | 16 375 | 83 719 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007 | January | 52 794 | 15 309 | 16 689 | 84 792 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| February | 53 172 | 15 520 | 17 011 | 85 703 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| March | 53 361 | 15 675 | 17 262 | 86 298 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| April | 53 351 | 15 815 | 17 415 | 86 581 | -0.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| May | 53 178 | 15 977 | 17 497 | 86 652 | -0.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| June | 52 962 | 16 215 | 17 578 | 86 755 | -0.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| July | 52 765 | 16 552 | 17 730 | 87 047 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| August | 52 521 | 16 964 | 17 948 | 87 433 | -0.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| September | 52 236 | 17 395 | 18 181 | 87 812 | -0.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| October | 52 028 | 17 777 | 18 411 | 88 216 | -0.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
|
|
| | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Table 2: New motor vehicle sales by state/territory of registration
|
| | NSW | Vic. | Qld | SA | WA | Tas.(a) | NT(a) | ACT(a) | Aust. |
| | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) |
|
Original |
|
2006 | August | 24 223 | 21 043 | 18 124 | 5 107 | 9 736 | 1 436 | 768 | 1 224 | 81 661 |
| September | 24 267 | 20 449 | 17 061 | 4 903 | 9 716 | 1 688 | 682 | 1 227 | 79 993 |
| October | 24 379 | 20 785 | 16 625 | 4 781 | 9 591 | 1 797 | 762 | 1 210 | 79 930 |
| November | 25 418 | 20 739 | 18 076 | 5 116 | 9 972 | 1 973 | 733 | 1 270 | 83 297 |
| December | 22 927 | 19 790 | 16 551 | 4 700 | 9 471 | 1 748 | 688 | 1 188 | 77 063 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2007 | January | 24 429 | 19 000 | 16 769 | 4 620 | 8 929 | 1 285 | 651 | 1 253 | 76 936 |
| February | 25 636 | 21 510 | 18 221 | 5 138 | 9 625 | 1 463 | 771 | 1 376 | 83 740 |
| March | 29 107 | 23 408 | 21 772 | 5 588 | 10 530 | 1 533 | 978 | 1 476 | 94 392 |
| April | 23 245 | 18 833 | 16 907 | 4 616 | 8 701 | 1 214 | 883 | 1 215 | 75 614 |
| May | 26 649 | 22 151 | 20 428 | 5 237 | 10 172 | 1 587 | 973 | 1 400 | 88 597 |
| June | 31 965 | 25 491 | 24 997 | 6 152 | 11 995 | 1 750 | 1 107 | 1 640 | 105 097 |
| July | 26 851 | 21 655 | 19 600 | 4 871 | 9 645 | 1 561 | 739 | 1 369 | 86 291 |
| August | 26 549 | 22 958 | 19 145 | 5 128 | 10 730 | 1 481 | 791 | 1 424 | 88 206 |
| September | 24 946 | 21 788 | 18 025 | 4 738 | 10 244 | 1 684 | 724 | 1 340 | 83 489 |
| October | 27 556 | 23 097 | 18 933 | 5 329 | 10 460 | 1 708 | 781 | 1 425 | 89 289 |
|
Seasonally adjusted |
|
2006 | August | 24 152 | 20 301 | 17 460 | 4 979 | 9 550 | 1 436 | 801 | 1 195 | 79 874 |
| September | 24 924 | 20 643 | 17 619 | 5 042 | 9 569 | 1 641 | 770 | 1 236 | 81 444 |
| October | 24 965 | 20 489 | 17 890 | 4 859 | 9 661 | 1 660 | 841 | 1 211 | 81 576 |
| November | 24 958 | 19 997 | 18 428 | 4 975 | 9 643 | 1 707 | 762 | 1 278 | 81 748 |
| December | 25 051 | 20 331 | 18 607 | 4 832 | 9 801 | 1 402 | 798 | 1 253 | 82 075 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2007 | January | 26 699 | 21 763 | 19 038 | 5 369 | 9 961 | 1 570 | 839 | 1 342 | 86 581 |
| February | 25 937 | 22 193 | 19 084 | 5 182 | 10 057 | 1 710 | 827 | 1 398 | 86 388 |
| March | 26 576 | 21 936 | 19 588 | 5 266 | 9 799 | 1 592 | 832 | 1 386 | 86 975 |
| April | 26 285 | 21 295 | 19 175 | 5 227 | 9 965 | 1 546 | 842 | 1 412 | 85 747 |
| May | 26 005 | 21 635 | 19 387 | 4 979 | 9 985 | 1 529 | 815 | 1 375 | 85 710 |
| June | 26 824 | 22 241 | 19 263 | 5 078 | 10 055 | 1 587 | 822 | 1 385 | 87 255 |
| July | 26 738 | 22 173 | 19 470 | 5 151 | 10 323 | 1 742 | 802 | 1 380 | 87 779 |
| August | 26 494 | 22 384 | 18 481 | 5 051 | 10 271 | 1 480 | 825 | 1 383 | 86 369 |
| September | 26 457 | 22 705 | 19 390 | 5 031 | 10 403 | 1 635 | 815 | 1 415 | 87 851 |
| October | 27 394 | 22 436 | 19 616 | 5 266 | 10 264 | 1 630 | 856 | 1 394 | 88 856 |
|
Trend |
|
2006 | August | 24 308 | 20 214 | 17 726 | 5 019 | 9 483 | 1 576 | 775 | 1 199 | 80 300 |
| September | 24 561 | 20 267 | 17 836 | 4 964 | 9 574 | 1 582 | 787 | 1 212 | 80 783 |
| October | 24 873 | 20 398 | 18 029 | 4 947 | 9 662 | 1 588 | 795 | 1 233 | 81 525 |
| November | 25 232 | 20 637 | 18 302 | 4 986 | 9 744 | 1 595 | 803 | 1 262 | 82 561 |
| December | 25 583 | 20 930 | 18 625 | 5 055 | 9 818 | 1 599 | 812 | 1 297 | 83 719 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2007 | January | 25 883 | 21 244 | 18 926 | 5 126 | 9 869 | 1 592 | 819 | 1 333 | 84 792 |
| February | 26 128 | 21 535 | 19 175 | 5 180 | 9 910 | 1 584 | 826 | 1 365 | 85 703 |
| March | 26 308 | 21 737 | 19 315 | 5 199 | 9 942 | 1 582 | 830 | 1 385 | 86 298 |
| April | 26 409 | 21 855 | 19 351 | 5 176 | 9 981 | 1 587 | 828 | 1 394 | 86 581 |
| May | 26 445 | 21 922 | 19 309 | 5 132 | 10 037 | 1 590 | 824 | 1 393 | 86 652 |
| June | 26 486 | 22 013 | 19 247 | 5 095 | 10 113 | 1 592 | 819 | 1 390 | 86 755 |
| July | 26 579 | 22 176 | 19 205 | 5 084 | 10 198 | 1 597 | 819 | 1 389 | 87 047 |
| August | 26 695 | 22 354 | 19 202 | 5 092 | 10 272 | 1 606 | 821 | 1 391 | 87 433 |
| September | 26 807 | 22 504 | 19 226 | 5 109 | 10 331 | 1 615 | 826 | 1 394 | 87 812 |
| October | 26 941 | 22 636 | 19 291 | 5 135 | 10 363 | 1 622 | 831 | 1 397 | 88 216 |
|
(a) Seasonally adjusted numbers of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory should be used with caution. For further information, see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes. |